Pace To Your Face Not An 8 Track: First Base Edition

Extra Credit to the first person in the comments who can tell me what classic song lyric is referenced in the title!

The first two weeks of marriage.

The first day in a new job.

The first 30 minutes of a date.

All of these are meaningless sample sizes.  Well, not exactly.  Each of these situations can be torpedoed by humans.  If you tell your date you forgot money and they had to pay for the meal, that’s a mistake and your friends will call you Muffin Man and sing those words to the Pearl Jam song Nothingman.  If you show up to a new job and start writing a Razzball article, you might get in some hot water.  And of course, there’s ways to mess up a marriage at any time.  (I’ve only done one of these things.  When guessing, choose the most specific example and you can figure that one out)

Baseball is the same.  Some samples are meaningless, but after a month we can start attaching some meaning.

We’re about 1/6 of the way through the season.  This time, I’m going to highlight some pace numbers.  (Note:  These aren’t all exact.  I’m going to multiply the statistic by six.  That’s what I call approximating, but you’ll get the idea.  Math is hard)

Pete Alonso:  60 HR pace, also on pace for 120 R and 150 RBI.   The career year continueth as Polar Bear roars into the first spot overall.

Matt Olson and Rowdy Tellez:  48 HR pace.  I’m going to go on a limb and say Olson is a better bet to continue for the season.  Olson is also on pace for 150 RBI and if you got him in the third you’re very happy.  If you’re not happy, then there’s probably something or someone in your life causing you pain, and you should have drafted Matt Olson to help you feel better.

Joey Gallo:  42 HR, 78 R, 84 RBI and he missed part of the month.  Power Gallo is back and he’s legit.  .354 OBP and it’s 2019 all over again.  Of course, the average will drop down to about .200 like it always does……

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 3o bombs. 120 R, 90 RBI.  His floor is so high.  Fine, I’ll keep him at number 2 in the ranks.

Freddie Freeman:  24 dingers.  Ooof.  Don’t know what to make of this.  Freeman hit only 19 HR last year; is this the power we can expect from him?  Of course, a 120 run pace is good, but only 54 RBI?  And where does this 24 SB pace come from?

Freeman is a guy I would move due to name value.  He’s a great real-life player impacted by a top-heavy lineup.  He’s in the two hole most games and the bottom of the Dodgers order isn’t great anymore.  My take to pick him in the second was probably two rounds too high.

Vinny P:  30 HR, but 76 R and 60 RBI:  Lineup context matters.  He’s got legitimate skills, though.  If I’m a psycho who plays dynasty I’d go for him.  Somehow on pace for more RBI than Freeman?  He might actually be more valuable than Freddie.

Ryan Mountcastle is a solid bat all around.  .244 AVG, but on pace for 36 HR and over 100 R and RBI.  The Orioles are legit and Castle Mounter is a big part of it.

Yandy Diaz is so hard for me to figure.  His launch angle has been written about for years.  I went back to the splits page on Baseball Reference.  I found that in April 2019 he also had 7 HR.  I then used my keyboard for a search on the Google machine.  Hark!  I found several articles from that month asking if we should buy into Yandy’s power.  Lots of stuff about launch angle, barrel rate, and hard hit %. The next month he hit 2 HR.

I’m just going where history goes here.  He’s also a guy with well-documented injury woes.  Do with this information what you will.

Christian Walker:  I thought I was going to come on here and continue to downplay Walker.  Well, he’s hitting .246 now, on pace for 24 HR, almost 80 RBI and almost 70 R.  I guess that’s all you could have expected from him.  Well done, good and faithful Christian.

Anthony Rizzo:  The Yankees tepid offense has really cost Rizzo.    30 HR pace, great.  Average, .282 with a .370 OBP?  Just fine.  But only on pace for 78 R and RBI?  Stupid Yankee offense.   The team only has a .229/.299/.378 slash.  If they can pick that up, Rizzo will be fine.  He wasn’t supposed to be the team’s best hitter, but he has been.  If they could do what they did last year Rizzo would be validating my preseason top 10 ranking.

I’m not talking about Andrew Vaughn, even though he’s hitting some out lately.  It just hurts too much.

Jose Abreu:  0 HR, 42 R, 66 RBI.  I’m sure the Astros are really looking forward to three years of this level of elite production coupled with negative defensive value.

Ranking Notes

I’ve been refining my process with this section.  I even learned how to use Statcast, but the main tools I use are all on good ol’ Razzball.  The Rest of Season Player Rater  has been invaluable and of course, if you don’t use the always valuable TOOLS, I don’t know what to tell you.

I’m working on the Tweeter machine, @theEducator23, if you’re interested.  I’m not sure if I’m good at Twitter or not.  I think I post way too much about the Cubs and Bulls.  But I do some fantasy things too.