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Boston Pays A 2% Big Dig Price To David

December 3, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 148 Comments

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The Red Sox signed David Price to a seven-year deal for $217 million.  MFW I heard.  I get that half goes to the government, and ten percent goes to his lawyer, and ten percent goes to his agent, and ten percent goes to his business manager, and ten percent goes to his accountant, and ten percent goes to the guy in his business manager’s office that is pretending to be his business manager and moving money straight to a bank account in Turks and Caicos without anyone knowing, but $217 million is ludicrous.  The Ghost of Curt Flood says, “Ya’ll abusing the crack baby out free agency.”  The ‘crack baby’ modifier is popular amongst ghosts.  The Ghost of Marion Barry started it.  This contract makes me long for the days of collusion.  This doesn’t even take into account how stupid it is from the Red Sox perspective, and I don’t mean just due to Price’s unstellar (Made Up Word of the Day!) playoff history.  There will never be a contract where this much money ever makes sense.  Look at your World Champion Royals, they don’t have one guy making more than ten million.  Look at the past handful of huge contracts, have any of them looked good in hindsight?  By the third year, this will look as egregious as the contracts given to Sabathia, A-Rod, Cano, Ryan Howard…Okay, nothing will look as bad as Ryan Howard’s.  It’s not like contracts are secret either.  It’s not as if the Red Sox are sitting there scratching their heads wondering how much the Royals are paying Hosmer.  Big contracts get you nowhere!  I said that last sentence while pounding my fist on a lectern as a few kids dozed in the front row.  As for Price, he’ll turn 31 years old during the 2016 season, which is not exactly when pitchers get better, but he looks like he could stave off decline for a year or two.  Last year, his fastball velocity went up from 2014, his K-rate was above his career average and his walk rate was within sneezing distance of his career mark.  He was a tad lucky on homers, LOB% and BABIP, but he appears to be 2.70-3.20 ERA pitcher with neutral luck.  Of course, I wouldn’t draft him since I don’t buy number one fantasy aces, but I doubt Fenway or the AL East really hurt him that much.  At least not until the third year of his deal when there will be 217 million reasons why the Red Sox want to unload him.  For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 17-7/3.03/1.10/225 in 220 IP.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Detroit Pays J-Z $1.1 Million Per Problem

December 1, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 155 Comments

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The Tigers are doing all of their buying early this year, huh?  They’re like your mom that one year she did all her Christmas shopping about two and a half months before everyone else.  Then the presents sat in your basement until Christmas and, since presents aren’t supposed to sit in a basement that long without being used, the PlayStation got mildew damage and Dad’s cordless shaver batteries seeped.  Then, when Christmas finally rolled around your mom’s talking about how presents aren’t why you celebrate baby Jesus’ birthday and you say if that were true then why was she in such a hurry to buy presents in September?  And she says to shut up and enjoy your starting pitcher with a falling K-rate and a raising xFIP.  Well, if she were the Tigers’ GM.  To quote Gordon Gekko, Jordan Zimmermann is a dog with different fleas.  Last year, he had a 7.3 K/9 after a 8.2 in 2014.  He had a 3.82 xFIP last year, his highest since his rookie year.  He’s always impressed with his lack walks, but even those crept up from 1.3 in 2014 to 1.7 last year.  Oh, and now he goes from the NL East to the AL.  The Tigers should just go out and get Johnny Cueto and a pair of Zubaz to make it official that they just don’t understand bad trends.  For 2016, I’ll give Zimmermann the projections of 14-11/3.89/1.24/155 and someone I won’t go near next year.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Trevor Story, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 30, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 86 Comments

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In an NFBC 15-team league where there are no pickups in-season, I already plan on drafting Trevor Story, and it’s only November, and this is coming from a guy who doesn’t know what he’s doing next weekend.  How’s that for excitement, Spanish beach?  Hmm, maybe that makes more sense if I leave it as playa.  Here’s what Prospect Mike said recently, “(Story went) 20/20 in Double and Triple-A as a 22-year-old with a decent average…knocking on the door at Coors with only Jose Reyes in his way?  Gimme.  The strikeout rate has always been a concern for him, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take with his offensive upside at shortstop.  2016 should see him in the majors, and depending on how quickly the Rockies unload Reyes (or he gets injured) it could be a quick stay in Triple-A for Trevor.  Now if we could only unload Grey.”  Geez, what did I do to this guy?  I’ll go Mike one better, Reyes won’t be playing for the Rockies by May.  What makes me so confident?  For the past three years, Reyes hasn’t made it out of April without an injury.  It was a solid career, but doode’s so toast that Wonder Bread calls him up for a booty call.  Anyway, what can we expect from Trevor Story for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jose Peraza, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 27, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 41 Comments

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Pretty high up the food chain of requirements for these posts is playing time with the major league club. I’m doing these rookie posts with an eye on redraft leagues. Can they be used for keeper leagues? Does a bear crap in the woods into a hollowed-out tree trunk and then yell to his bear wife, “Baby, do we have toilet paper in the other bathroom?” With that said, Jose Peraza has a bit of a muddled picture for playing time, which is not as wonderful as being muddled with mint. You hear me, Mojito?! On the bright side, Don Mattingly is out of town, so we don’t have to worry about him accidentally playing Ethier at 2nd base. On the less than bright side, the Dodgers are a team that expects to make the playoffs and should have Corey Seager and Joc Pederson already in the lineup, so how many fresh-facers can they play? My guess is two and Peraza isn’t one of them. So, why on earth am I highlighting Peraza if this is meant for primarily redraft leagues? I’m glad you asked. Or rather, I asked: Anyway, what can we expect of Jose Peraza for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Julio Urias, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 24, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 100 Comments

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My predilection is to draft rookie hitters over rookie pitchers.  Predilection is also one dirty sounding word.  Slap an NC-17 stamp on the word predilection, Tipper Gore!  Actually, I’m not sure I’ve ever drafted a rookie pitcher outside of an NL or AL-Only league and/or keeper.  Further (Grey just won’t stop!), I’m not sure I’ve ever drafted a rookie in a standard redraft league who was slated to start the year in the minors.  By standard redraft, I mean leagues with waivers.  I don’t believe in sitting on lottery tickets on my bench.  Obviously, there’s times when this should’ve been done.  Trout’s rookie year comes to mind; Braun’s rookie year was a thing of beauty; even last year’s Bryant was someone that would’ve been nice to grab in drafts.  The rookies that are worthwhile to sit on from March until they’re called up are few and far between, and aside from Trout and Braun’s rookie years, you can draft a guy who is slated to start the year in the majors around the same time as any rookie and get just as good of value.  I.e., Bryant was solid last year, but you could’ve drafted a ton of guys that were solid when he was drafted.  I bring all of this up now because today’s rookie, Julio Urias, won’t start the year in the majors.  He’s young enough to be Jose Tabata’s wife’s grandchild, listed currently at 19 years old.  But I think there’s something to super-young Latino players.  As we have a Latin 30 in the Razzball glossary, which means a player says they’re one age but are really much older, I think there’s an opposite phenomenon with Latin players who are super young.  They don’t want to do anything but play baseball, so when a major league team asks to sign them, they say they’re 16, as Urias did with the Dodgers, but he could be 12 years old and no one has any idea.  Since he’s 19 going on 12, which was also a Jennifer Garner movie remake that Subway Jared tried to greenlight, Urias will start the year in the minors, and won’t be up until June at the earliest and may not be up at all this year.  Anyway, what can we expect from Julio Urias for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Orlando Arcia, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 23, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 75 Comments

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There was an article at Fangraphs titled, “On Orlando Arcia‘s Lack of Power.”  I didn’t read the article, because its SEO jackhammer title sorta gave me an idea as to what it was going to be about.  Arcia is only 21 years old, so the title might’ve been better off being, “Orlando Arcia’s Lack of Power, But, I Mean, He is Super Young and It Could Develop.”  If his power does develop, he will be a first round fantasy talent, because everything else is gorge.  Like the Continental Army is going to set up at Valley Gorge and beat those Brits or at least not drink their tea.  Arcia hits .300, he doesn’t strikeout much, he is capable of thirty steals and he’s a shortstop.  Going back to the lack of power, I decided to watch about a month’s worth of Arcia’s at-bats condensed into a three-minute video.  Thank you, iMovie.  Know what I took away from that?  The reason he hasn’t hit for power.  I’m honestly not even sure why someone needed to write an article about his lack of power, because if you watch him it’s as obvious as the schnoz on Jon Niese’s face.  He doesn’t hit for power because he looks like Edgar Renteria.  I mean, he looks just like him.  As if him and Renteria were attached at one point and Ben Carson separated them.  Right now, people are likely barfing in their mouth, swishing it around and spitting it into their scrapbook labeled, “Renteria,” but Renteria wasn’t always terrible.  He had a few 10+ homer, 30+ SB seasons when he was young.  Renteria also had a .286 batting average over 2100 major league games, and suddenly this post became the Wikipedia page for Renteria.  Anyway, what can we expect from Orlando Arcia for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jose Berrios, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 20, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 132 Comments

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I’m a bit rookie pitcher-phobic.  Waking up in a dank dungeon missing a kidney after being slipped a roofie from a rookie pitcher will do that to you.  By the by, all dungeons are dank, don’t tell Previous Sentence Grey.  This is why I tend to focus mostly on bats when I’m breaking down the rookies that will impact 2016 fantasy baseball (take that deft SEO, Bleacher Report!).  Today, I turn my lazy, left googly eye towards a rookie pitcher.  Before I wrote up this rookie pitcher post, I decided that I wanted a guy that was on the cusp of breaking into the majors, after diligently researching what a cusp was.  So, it’s not a plural misspelled cup?  Noted.  This guy I found (don’t look at the title, it’ll ruin the surprise) should’ve been up in the majors last year.  In fact, I wrote a Buy for him in August.  Okay, okay, his name is Jose Berrios.  Hi ho the Berrios, snitches!  Here’s what I said last August, “If I could quickly evaluate the Twins current crop of starters that are prospblocking Berrios:  Garbage, More Garbage, Utter Garbage, Shirley Manson in Garbage, Magic Garbage.  (Magic Garbage is Utah garbage where you find soiled magic underpants.)  I haven’t even started talking about how Berrios was bred in a lab in Knott’s Berry Farm by the founder of the boysenberry, Rudolph Boysen, whose grandchild killed his parents and is currently behind bars (true story; yes, Dateline is dropping the ball by not featuring this).  The only thing that’s been stopping me from adding Berrios in every league is I have no idea when he’ll be called up.”  And that’s me quoting me!  The Twins’ pitching rotation isn’t going to be better come April.  That’s why Berrios will start the year with the club.  Anyway, what can we expect of Jose Berrios for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Detroit Goes Used Closer Shopping Again

November 19, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 77 Comments

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It feels like the Tigers have been searching for a closer since Todd Jones retired — Percival, Valverde, Nathan, Soria.  They prey on dead meat so much, they’re more like the Vultures than Tigers. Papelbon recently was heard saying, “I am going to close forever.  Wait, are those Tigers’ front office people circling above me?  Crap!”  It’s too bad none of the Syrian refugees don’t have closing experience.  So, hopefully, the Tigers’ wait to find a closer is finally over.  Unless Bruce Rondon is reading this, then the wait has just begun.  Assuming Francisco Rodriguez doesn’t get off the plane in Detroit, see an Alburquerque jersey, think he’s in New Mexico, then beat the crap out of an American Airlines pilot for flying him to the wrong city, and get arrested by federal authorities for beating up an employee of a company with the word “American” in the name and get sent to Gitmo.  Sure, this sounds unlikely, not impossible though.  With K-rod sent to the Tigers, I’ll give him the projections of 4-2/2.69/1.02/66, 42 saves in 61 IP.  As for the Brewers, their closer now is Jeremy Jeffress, Will Smith or Corey Knebel, i.e., the offseason is still young and they could trade for someone.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Lucas Giolito, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 17, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 131 Comments

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Before watching the video on Lucas Giolito, I looked at his vitals.  This is something I don’t usually do.  Doesn’t really matter to me if a guy is six-foot-one or five-ten.  But, dizzamn, Giolito is a strapping young man, huh?  He’s listed at six-six and 230.  He’s only 21 years old, but I think he’s done growing.  Hopefully, cause his mom tells CBS Sports that his “feet already hang off the bed.”  With a six-six frame, as you can imagine, he throws fast.  (Christall Young is the exception that proves the rule, which never made any sense to me.  If it’s an exception, how does it prove anything?  It proves that there’s exceptions, but that’s about it, right?  I’m gonna move on before my brain hurts in my thought-nodes.)  Giolito hits 97 MPH on his fastball, which is actually up a tick from the previous year.  If he keeps steadily increasing his fastball every year, by the time he’s 40 years old, he’s going to be throwing 117 MPH.  He throws from nearly right over the top, so the ball fires downhill and hitters have about no chance of hitting it.  A 9+ K/9 seems to be a given once he gets settled in the majors.  With speed comes no control, to sound like a drunk Yoda.  Or does it?!  Snap, reversed on that.  No, Giolito has control too.  97 MPH with command?  I’ll say it for you, hummna-hummna.  Oh, and his strikeout pitch is his hard breaking curve.  In 20 years, Al Pacino could be playing the role of a Hall of Fame pitcher in the film, Giolito’s Way.  Assuming Pacino has eighteen-inch stilettos.  Anyway, what can we expect from Lucas Giolito for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

J.P. Crawford, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 16, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 131 Comments

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As I previously mentioned, Prospect Mike had a large (foam) hand in what prospects I covered as rookies that could impact in 2016 fantasy baseball.  I used his Midseason Top 50 Fantasy Baseball Prospects list, and asked him for input.  In case you couldn’t tell from his Mike Schmidt avatar, it’s no secret he’s a Phillies fan, a phan.  I mention this now because today’s prospect is J.P. Crawford, the top prospect in the Phillies system.  So, I had to be a cyclops with a monocle to make sure Prospect Mike wasn’t using Liberty Bell IPA goggles when he listed Crawford high up in his prospect lists.  Prospect Mike said, “Crawford should sit comfortably in the top twenty on just about every prospect list this spring.  There’s 20/20 upside at shortstop and a high floor thanks to an advanced approach.  The 20-year-old will likely reach the majors midsummer and a fair comparison would be Addison Russell in Chicago – albeit with a tick less power and a tick more speed.  The left side of the infield in Philly is loaded with fantasy potential.  Imagine, if you will, Grey’s brain, but instead of empty it’s full.”  Aw, man, Mike’s mean to me!  So, Crawford is a cousin of Carl Crawford, and not related to J.P. Arencibia, according to the research I did.  Crawford doesn’t have his cousin’s speed or the unrelated Arencibia’s power.  Crawford is a shortstop though, so immediately he becomes interesting as a fantasy commodity.  How interesting is the question, which is actually a statement.  Weird, right?  No, you’re weird!  Anyway, what can we expect from J.P. Crawford for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Joey Gallo, 2016 Fantasy Outlook

November 13, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Rookies | 199 Comments

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For the uninitiated, a Three True Outcome (TTO) player is one that walks, Ks or homers.  That’s it.  A famous example of this is Adam Dunn aka The Big Donkey.  The Three True Outcome label works for baseball.  Real baseball, that is.  It doesn’t encapsulate everything for fantasy.  That’s where the Donkey label comes in.  A Donkey is player that Ks, homers and steals.  Big Donkey once stole 19 bases, and perennially stole more than seven bases a year, until he became more Big than Donkey.  Mini Donkey, Mark Reynolds, had himself a nice little run for a few years, once stealing 24 bases.  Mini Mini Donkey, Ian Stewart, failed to live up to his Donkey expectations.  Perhaps the Donkey expectations are what ended up dragging him down, I don’t know, I’m not a psychologist in matters of the donkey.  So, hopefully, when we call Joey Gallo, Donkey Dong Jr., we are not putting unrealistic expectations on him.  Shame to think Donkey expectations were what did in any player when Donkey expectations mean no harm.  Donkey expectations just want a roof over its head, a hot meal and foot rub from a topless dame.  Last year, Gallo hit six homers and stole three bases in only 108 at-bats for the Rangers while hitting 14 homers in 53 Triple-A games.  Am I reluctantly failing to mention his Ks?  If they were as bad as Gallo’s, you’d be reluctant too.  Anyway, what can we expect of Joey Gallo for 2016 fantasy baseball?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Yanks Dropkick Murphy For Hicks

November 12, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes, Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 104 Comments

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Yesterday, the Twins traded Aaron Hicks to the Yankees for serial-killer-in-name-only, John Ryan Murphy.  Here’s what I said earlier this year, “When Hicks first came up, people thought he was going to be better than that Pollock fella.  No, not a stereotypical dumb person, but as in A.J. Pollock.  In Double-A, Hicks had 12 homers, 32 steals and a .285 average.  Then strikeouts enveloped his game in the majors and he hit .192 with a 27% K-rate in 2013, and hit .215 with a 25% K-rate in 2014, but this year, .277 and a 17% K-rate!  That’s a huge improvement.  That’s what she said!  What?” And that’s me quoting me!  On a side note, am I the only that sees K-rate and then tries to chop in half a wooden block while screaming hi-ya?  “Today, Daniel-san, we will talk about K-rate.”  No?  Okay, maybe it’s just me.  *Grey does a flying crane kick*  “Oh, he’s been practicing his K-rate.”  Still nothing?  Okay, I’m moving on.  One more Pollock comparison that is likely coincidental but I’m gonna throw it out there.  Pollock didn’t break out until his age-27 season and Hicks is only 26.  Okay, one more Pollock comparison, Pollock never stole 39 bases in the minors leagues, but just did it in the majors.  Hicks never stole more than the aforementioned 32 bases, but that means nothing.  Okay, fine, one more Pollock comparison!  Pollock never hit more than ten homers in the minors and he just hit 20 homers in the majors.  So who cares Hicks never hit more than 13 homers in the minors.  That’s still above anything Pollock did.  Okay, and I really mean it this time, one more comparison to Pollock.  The excitement I had last year for A.J. Pollock when I called him a sleeper is nearly identical to the excitement I have right now for Hicks.  Okay, okay, one final thing on Pollock!  The mistake I made last year when I didn’t draft him after flagging him as a breakout won’t be repeated with Hicks.  Let’s go over quickly what Hicks did last year, he hit 11 homers with a 11% home run to fly ball ratio, which is completely repeatable, so last year in 155 games he would’ve had 18 homers.  He also had 13 steals and four steals in September.  If he stole 4 bags every month, he’d have 24 steals.  Last year, he had a .256 batting average with a .285 BABIP, which is low for him.  He’s got some speed and a .310 BABIP isn’t out of the question (he had years of a .340+ BABIP in the minors).  If he gets to a .310 BABIP, he’s going to hit .270.  Really, that’s not a stretch, which is also a nickname no one ever called Altuve.  18 HRs, 24 steals with a .270 average on the year?  If he would’ve done that, I’m not sure we’d even be talking about Hicks as a sleeper, but rather as a top 20 outfielder.  And this isn’t me fighting hard to get him to these numbers.  Like a migrant worker, I’m cherrypicking a little with the steals by saying he’s going to get four a month because he did that in September, except (!) he’s likely closer to a guy that could take six bags per month.  When Steamer projects Hicks for 10 HRs and 11 steals with a .256 in 2016, it doesn’t worry me.  It actually makes me more excited because that means most people aren’t going to be excited about him.  Steamer is very conservative and doesn’t flag breakouts; that’s my job.  For 2016, I’ll give Hicks the projections of 82/15/52/.274/26, assuming the Yankees find a way to get him a starting job this offseason, which seems all but assured.  So, my question for you is, who’s the Pollock now?  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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