The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2013 fantasy baseball rankings. That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies. It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown. I refuse to draft a top starter anywhere where they are usually drafted. Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth. Simple math tells us there’s starters to go around. In most leagues, there’s a ton of guys on waivers that can help you — all year. Not just in April, and then they disappear. With the help of the Stream-o-Nator (it’s not populated right now because there’s no scheduled games), you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest. To read more about streaming as a draft strategy. There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck. Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to shift due to which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can do anything. Finally, I’m good at projecting starters, so just fall back into my arms. I won’t drop you. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball:
1. Justin Verlander – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until Felix Hernandez. I call this tier, “These guys are the best. I will enjoy missing out on them.” There’s a huge caveat to this tier below in Strasburg’s blurb. Verlander will definitely be drafted before I’m looking at starters. He’s terrific, fantastic, adjective! I don’t care. Last year, I drafted one starter in the top 100 in the RCL and I had 57 out of a possible 60 pitching points. Guys and four girls, you don’t need a top starter. 2013 Projections: 20-7/2.71/1.03/234
2. Stephen Strasburg – It will take every bit of willpower to resist my urge to draft Strasburg this year. I’ve seen him ranked lower than the second starter overall and I almost ranked him first, so you can see how much I like him. If he falls to the 5th through 10th starter off the board, I may just bite. Verlander, Price and Kershaw have nowhere to go but down. Strasburg has nowhere to go but up. As frustrating as it was to watch Strasburg get shut down last September, 2013 owners will reap the rewards. He could pitch 200+ innings with a 10+ K-rate. That is the most beautiful sentence in the English language. Followed closely by, “I am Kate Upton and I want to have sex with you then afterwards The Barefoot Contessa will make us meatloaf.” So, basically, I’m telling you not to draft the first five starters under any circumstances, but if Strasburg is still on the board around the 6th starter, I ain’t hatin’, I’m liberatin’! 2013 Projections: 18-6/2.77/1.05/227
3. David Price – In case you hadn’t heard, David Price received an award this offseason. Eh, who cares? In that previous mentioned league where I only drafted one starter in the first 100 overall, I drafted Bumgarner. Then Latos just after the top 100, then Anibal and then Gio a few rounds later. Latos crapped my bed and called it Febreze, Anibal was passable until I dropped him when he was traded, and Gio worked out fine. So I had two starters in the first 138 picks and I had 57 out of 60 points. Price will be fine again this year; don’t draft him, for the love of all things holy, as a bagel store should claim. 2013 Projections: 16-8/2.90/1.09/210
4. Clayton Kershaw – I imagine a lot of people will have questions about Kershaw’s hip. Wondering if he’ll be as good as he’s been. How much will that wonky hip change his mechanics and his pitching? Will he be completely healed and show no difference in his ability? I got the answer for all of those questions. Just don’t draft him. Easy, right? 2013 Projections: 17-7/2.98/1.10/218
5. Felix Hernandez – Fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) in Quality Start leagues are joining a prayer parallelogram hoping their leaguemates use rankings that overcompensate for wins. Hernandez tends to have a start or two each year where he looks bad, but his end of the year numbers are always still there. As The Weeknd sings in their extended remix, “F-Her puts in work…F-Her puts in work…F-Her puts in work.” 2013 Projections: 14-9/3.10/1.12/219
6. Zack Greinke – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gio. I call this tier, “Like these guys; might draft one; don’t reach for multiple ones.” This tier is filled with number one starters. They are fine to own. Do not draft more than one, and make sure you have a solid foundation of bats before drafting any of them; there will be lots of pitchers still to come. When Greinke signed with the Dodgers, I said this, “If the new Dodgers’ ownership sole goal is to successfully move down the Google results for ‘Magic Johnson contracts’ they are doing an admirable job. Forget the Doyers, they’re the Dollars. So, now we know what Isiah Thomas has been up to. He’s printing money in Magic’s basement. “Yo, Magic, check out this hundred I made with a portrait of us kissing at half court.” Gotta give it to the Giants’ GM, Brian Sabean. He may have a penchant for guys five years past their prime, but at least he’s not building his team like the 2007 Yankees. In 2010 while with the Brewers, Greinke had his best season peripheral-wise. He had his lowest xFIP (2.56), highest K-rate (10.54) and lowest percentage of contact made for all pitches (75.8%). He was undone by homers. Miller Park ranked number one for all stadiums last year for homers hit, and tenth in 2011. Dodger Stadium ranked 19th last year. Miller Park in 2011 had a BABIP of .302 and Dodger Stadium had a .289 BABIP. Last year at home, Brewers pitchers had a .302 BABIP and Dodgers pitchers had a .271. Last year for runs, Miller Park ranked 10th; Dodger Stadium 22nd. I didn’t touch Greinke’s time on the Angels, because I’m already at apples and oranges with Brewers vs. the Dodgers. Angels to Dodgers is apples to kiwis with the league difference. I’m gonna go out on a very sturdy limb and say Greinke likes to pitch in the National League and won’t mind pitching in Dodger Stadium. If we don’t see one of the best Greinke years in 2013, I’ll eat my hat, and that hat is a floppy Diane Keaton one.” And that’s me quoting me! 2013 Projections: 16-8/2.97/1.12/215
7. Cole Hamels – I think the Phillies can surprise this year. Sure, their lineup looks like a M.A.S.H. unit with eight Jamie Farrs. *shudders* Sorry, that image gave me the willies in the bad way, like in a prison shower. If Halladay bounces back (which I do have concerns about) with Hamels and Lee, the Phillies won’t need to do much to get to the playoffs. Hamels lost a bit on his walk rate last year, but he’s still in control, literally/figuratively. At 29 years old, I think this is the year Hamels makes a serious run at Cy Young. That’s assuming the talk in January about a sore shoulder is nothing. He may get dropped down about ten spots if there’s issues in Spring Training. Gotta be like a cyclops with a monocle with some of these guys. 2013 Projections: 16-6/3.04/1.09/212
8. Matt Cain – His Ks went up last year, but I’m not buying him for that. His walks went down. Not buying him for that either. Had a career low ERA. Nope, not that either. One of the most important things when drafting a pitcher is finding stability. Cain throws 200+ innings like it’s his job, which coincidentally it is. I’m buying that. 2013 Projections: 15-8/2.95/1.04/191
9. Madison Bumgarner – Another year, another step forward. Next thing you know Bumgarner’s going to be the best pitcher in all of baseball and folks are going to rename tight underwear, Bumgarters. “My lady wears Bumgarters and I wear Fly Balls.” Or he’ll pitch relatively the same and still be a solid number one. He looks incredibly reliable for his 23 years of age. He just put together back-to-back solid seasons that are so similar you need a ruler on your computer screen to separate the two. 2013 Projections: 16-9/3.28/1.08/195
10. Gio Gonzalez – Before looking at his stats, my gut was telling me Gio was going to be overrated this year. How could he possibly live up to 2012? Well, he probably can’t. Never the hoo! He can still produce a number one starter’s line. His Ks aren’t to be trifled with, and as we know, Ks are the easiest thing to predict. You don’t see many guys go from a 9+ K-rate to a 7 K-rate without them hiding an injury. The reverse is also true. So, what’s the worst thing that happens? Gio Ks 200 hitters and gets unlucky with a 3.70 ERA? It’s not great, it’s also not that bad. As for Gio entering the whole PEDs conversation, at least Gio didn’t call Bud Selig’s wife fat. There’s evidence that says Gio was on the list that no one wants to be on. No, not Josie from Top Chef’s list of people she wants to hang out with. There’s speculation that Gio took PEDs. Of course, he denied any use, but the last player to say they intentionally did steroids was Lyle Alzado, so there’s not a long track record of players coming clean. As of right now, the drugs that are listed that he took aren’t illegal, so he could escape the Scarlet Letters PEDs. If he’s suspended, his ranking will obviously fall. 2013 Projections: 17-10/3.29/1.16/207
11. Cliff Lee – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Chapman. I call this tier, “You’re mine and we belong together.” I will go over the pairings at a later date for when to draft starters and who to pair them with, but quickly this tier is where I’m aiming my thick, bushy ‘stache. If I get a starter prior to this tier, I probably won’t own one of these guys too. There’s absolutely a chance I do though, because I’m higher on some of them than others. This tier is similar to my Gio tier last year. I didn’t think I’d own Bumgarner and Gio on any teams together, but Gio fell to 138 overall. How could I not own him? I doubt Lee falls that far, but Scherzer or Wainwright or Latos might. I’m praying on my knees to the northwest at the crack of dawn that I own Cliff Lee this year. Last year, he was terrific, except for wins. Wins are unpredictable, so throw that stat out and recycle “wins are unpredictable” for another post. 2013 Projections: 13-10/3.05/1.06/212
12. Max Scherzer – I’m excited for Scherzer like a baboon who opens a bananas-only box of Runts. After years of hinting at greatness, Scherzer finally put together an amazing year in 2012. His K-rate of 11.08 was easily the best in the major leagues for pitchers with more than 160 innings. Walks, his big problem in the past, were manageable. His walk rate of 2.88 was better than league average. If it wasn’t for some bad luck with balls hit into play, he’d be a top 10 starter this year across all ‘perts. And his BABIP wasn’t even bad for the whole year. His .442 BABIP in April produced an unsightly 7.77 ERA for that month. You ask me who will be the best pitcher in the majors next year. I answer Scherzer could be one of them. 2013 Projections: 15-6/3.30/1.24/225
13. Adam Wainwright – Honestly, where I see Wainwright being ranked by other fantasy baseball ‘perts, there’s little reason for me to believe I WON’T own him. Caps for emphasis, not because my shift key is sticky. Due to a career low in men left on base, his 2012 ERA of 3.94 is a world away from his 3.23 xFIP. I was worried about him last year because he was returning from surgery, but, really, I had nothing to worry about. He was much better than his ERA shows and exactly where he was prior to surgery. As his ERA was near 4 last year, he could easily have a two and a half ERA this year. I want to own him this year, my tootsie hole. (My tootsie hole is my pet name for you. You’re cute.) 2013 Projections: 16-8/3.12/1.19/193
14. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ll put it to you as plain as that hairy mole on your cheek that you nicknamed Brad. If Zimmermann does not take a step forward, he’ll be worth this draft slot. Now to get you all jazzed, Kermit Ruffins. He’s 26 years old and about to enter his third season starting, the time when pitchers really break out. In the minors, he showed a lot more Ks and last year his K-rate went up a tick from 2011. His fastball also got a hair faster. He gives up absolutely no free passes (13th best in the majors for starters). Quick math for you: Ks + no walks = François Truffaut. Whoa, my math was way off there. It was supposed to equal number one starter. 2013 Projections: 14-10/3.09/1.13/172
15. Mat Latos – As I went over in my Eric Hosmer sleeper post, I wrote how I worry that I’ll sometimes go back for more abuse because of a self-fulfilling, self-defeating self-self-self thing. Latos falls into that category. I drafted him last year and got none of the stuff that made Dallas Latos fall in love with him (I’m talking on the field; not the ceiling bedroom mirror or the three Pomeranians). His 2nd half 2.84 ERA while limiting hitters to a .215 average are the stuff dreams are made of, assuming your fantasies are about fantasy. You literal, sumbitch! 2013 Projections: 16-9/3.33/1.12/188
16. Matt Moore – Before you start lambasting me like the turkey you think I am for ranking Moore here, no one is drafting Moore 16th overall for all starters. You draft, say, Greinke, then you wait seven or so rounds and draft Moore. He’s your 2nd starter. The same way I drafted Bumgarner and Gio last year. You want me to sit here — and I am sitting — and rehash end of the season rankings and say that’s what you should do for 2013? Is that helpful to anyone? I’m telling you how to draft for 2013, not 2012. There are a ton of rankings that just rehash last year. I’m sure you can find them. No, Moore, wasn’t great last year with a 3.81 ERA and an even worse 4.35 xFIP. He had a 3.01 ERA 2nd half ERA and that was with a terrible month of September (5.48 ERA). His 2nd half walk rate was 3.61 compared to his 4.54 in the first half. In the minors, he didn’t have control problems. Something was off in the first half of the year. He had the 12th best K-rate last year at 8.88. That number is paltry compared to his minor league numbers. He has 10+ K-rate stuff. Wanna a guy who gives top five starter numbers but comes at a third of the cost? What Moore do you need? 2013 Projections: 15-9/3.19/1.23/225
17. Aroldis Chapman – UPDATE: Aroldis is now the closer. 2013 Projections: 6-2/2.35/0.95/118, 41 saves as a reliever
18. Jered Weaver – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “On my HP Tablet, I designed this tier to be lower than others have them. Now excuse me while I go over to the Lord & Taylor accessory wall.” Unlike the first tier in the top 20 starters, this tier is meant to ignore because I don’t trust any of these starters. They all have flashing signs over their heads that read, “I’m gonna fail to live up to expectations.” The sign is in 8 point font so it can fit the whole phrase on there. Where do we start with why Weaver is a flipping mess? His K-rate last year — burp. His xFIP last year — burp, burp, fart. His fastball velocity last year — fart, fart, shart. I nearly dropped him out of my top twenty, but I felt ranking him here was late enough so he’d be off the board by the time I needed to draft a starter. Also, I’m probably only drafting one pitcher from all twenty of these guys, chances are I won’t need Weaver. 2013 Projections: 16-7/3.33/1.10/172
19. CC Sabathia – In the offseason, he had a bone spur removed from his elbow. The Yankees’ pitching coach, Larry Rothschild (no relation to Larry Rothsbrother) said that the Yanks would limit CC’s workload in 2013. When a pitching coach is talking about limiting a pitcher in December, how much better do you think the pitcher is going to get, say, 150 innings into the season? If you answered “less better,” that’s an awkward phrase but I understand what you mean. 2013 Projections: 16-10/3.56/1.20/188
20. Chris Sale – I’m here from the future. *wavy lines* The day is August 1st, 2013. Greetings, earthlings! Don’t worry, I’m not an alien. I’m also an earthling. But the greeting, “Greetings, earthlings!” becomes a common thing to say to your friends in the near future after a little known Bangladeshi artist, Bappi, comes out with a YouTube sensation, “Greetings, Earthlings-style!” Some think it’s just a lazy Gangnam rip-off, but… Anyway! On August 1st, 2013, Chris Sale brings his 4.00+ ERA back from the DL and I say, “He threw too many innings in 2012 and it’s caught up to him in a bad way. I told you not to draft him, earthlings.” So now when I quote that, I’ll be able to point out how I was right about Chris Sale and Bappi. 2013 Projections: 13-6/3.45/1.18/178
