Well, that took care of the hitters. They’re done. That cake is done. Unless you count Utility-only players, the Hall of Fame committee doesn’t count them, not sure why you do. Maybe you like players so unathletic that they can’t even play first. You deal with your own hang-ups, ‘kay? Now we look at the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. Bee tee dubya, I’m still calling this year twelve after twenty. Hope you are too, hate to think I started a fad that only lasted for a minute or two right after midnight on January 1st. We’re gonna take this top 20 to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80. Sounds daunting to you?! Try being the one writing all this gobbledygook. I have a pretty off color joke for that last word, but you would’ve had to be in ‘Nam to appreciate it. You’re not going to find me drafting many of the top tier 20 starters unless they drop to the point where I feel they’re a bargain. Say two to three rounds past their average draft position. There’s just too many starters you can grab in the 5th to 7th rounds that are pretty safe to mess with the top, top guys. I do like to grab at least one starter from the following post, but we’ll get to that. As with the hitters, the projections are mine and I’ll list where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. Roy Halladay – This is the top tier. This tier goes from here until Verlander. I call this tier, “The top tier. Didn’t I already say that?” Halladay’s projections can be found in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.
2. Clayton Kershaw – I saw some ‘perts rank Verlander above Kershaw. For shame, shame balls. I saw another ‘pert rank Verlander above Halladay. Shame ball me once? Shame balls on you. Shame ball me twice? Shame balls on you. To think I don’t get paid for this astute analysis. Inconceivable! Seriously (uh-oh, you know I’m about to get serious), what is there to say about the top pitchers? Kershaw just slept with your sister in the back of a hooptie, then left her on the side of the 101 in Reseda. Are you angry or proud? Proud, that’s how awesome he is. 2012 Projections: 17-7/2.55/1.05/230
3. Cliff Lee – The Adverb had a tough time with walks last year (for him, which is way below normal for any human pitcher), and that lead to a huge step forward in Ks (7.84 to 9.21 K/9). Doode, I’ll take a full 2.00 BB/9 if it means another 40 Ks. You feel me? If you do, could you stop? It’s making me uncomfortable. 2012 Projections: 18-8/2.50/1.05/215
4. Justin Verlander – The other day I heard a ex-jock, sportscasting announcer guy say, “Verlander didn’t have a good year…. He had a great year!” Is there any other profession that could get away with such trite shizz? Imagine your mechanic told you your muffler wasn’t good… It was great! You’d think twice the next time a Groupon for Jiffy Lube showed up in your Inbox. You know ESPN et al think they can get away with ex-jocks/idiotic sportscasters because they think you’re dumb. With that said, Verlander did have a great year. DAH!!! 2012 Projections: 18-7/2.75/1.08/240
5. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Greinke. I call this tier, “The aces that once were.” I’m seeing Lincecum drafted after a couple of guys I have after him on my rankings, so if he were to fall far enough, I could see maybe getting him. He would have to fall probably much later than he will. He had a solid enough 2011 to still be an ace. Don’t love the falling K-rate, burgeoning walk rate or his highest xFIP since his rookie year. None of it is terrific, but I also wouldn’t yell fire in the theater of Lincecum. 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.75/1.18/230
6. Felix Hernandez – Ready to have your mind blown? F-Her actually had a better season in 2011 than his dream Cy Young year when he won a whole 13 games. Thinking about that, Murray Chass just rolled over in casket, assuming he sleeps in a casket to make things easier for his family when he dies. F-Her’s K-rate was better in 2011, his xFIP was nearly identical (3.14 vs. 3.15) and he won an extra game. (His WHIP was a little off, but that was due to some rollers finding holes, as they say on the Skee-Ball World Tour.) 2012 Projections: 15-12/2.80/1.14/220
7. CC Sabathia – I’m trying not to be too stupid this year. In previous years, I’ve said I’m avoiding CC because he has too many innings on his arm. Then he’s gone out and thrown another 200 innings. He can throw a lot of innings. He’s just a dandy Yankee who eats lots of cheese doodles — stick a feather in his arm and call it macaroni and then he’ll eat that too. 2012 Projections: 20-7/3.10/1.20/210
8. Zack Greinke – Okay, I probably will end up drafting Greinke cause I’m ranking him pretty high. That doesn’t mean I’m taking him in the 3rd round overall. (I’ll get to the top 300 overall where I rank everyone together; don’t worry your cute little egg-shaped head about that.) I can’t say I owned Greinke last year when everyone was crazy about him in the preseason because, well, everyone was crazy about him. Then he went out and had a 3.83 ERA. Belch called you up and burped. Obviously there’s more to his ERA than meets the eye. He had a 10.54 K/9 and a 2.56 xFIP. *drool* Everyone’s writing the Brewers off this year, and there’s some reason to, but Greinke used to do work on the Royals. He’ll be a’ight. 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/220
9. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lester. I call this tier, “If I don’t have one starter already, here’s where I’m drafting and I’m fine with that.” Are we going to get the Hamels that gives a 9+ K-rate or the under-2 walk rate? Doesn’t matter. He really hasn’t had one bad year when you look under the hood. Four straight years of 32+ starts and no xFIP over 3.63. You’ll take it and like it. 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.95/1.10/200
10. Madison Bumgarner – I already went over my Bumgarner 2012 fantasy. I wrote it while counting my licks to the center of a Tootsie pop. 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/200
11. Yovani Gallardo – I took some flak for ranking Gallardo so high last year. Well, last year I ranked him 10th and this year 11th. Correction done. I don’t know, guys and three girl readers, he had a 8.99 K/9, dropped his walk rate by more than one per nine and had a xFIP of 3.19. Was it really that bad of a year? Rhetorical! If he gives me the same season as last year, I’m all right with that. (Side note: Gallardo was on the Verducci list of risky pitchers. Here’s what I said about that list.) 2012 Projections: 15-9/3.15/1.20/210
12. David Price – I saw one fantasy baseball ‘pert rank Price 11th and Gallardo 18th. Let’s see what we know from last year: Price’s K-rate 8.75; Gallardo’s 8.99, Price’s walk rate 2.53; Gallardo’s 2.56, Price’s xFIP 3.32; Gallardo’s 3.19, Price is in the AL East; Gallardo is in a Pujols-less NL Central (which actually sounds painful), Price won 12 games last year; Gallardo 17. I’m willing to throw wins out the metaphorical window, but is anything else saying Price is that much better? None of this is meant to disparage Price, bee tee dubya. I just don’t see the discrepancy between the two. You know what happens when you feel sick from French pancakes? You’re having a discrepancy. Take it, Highlights. It’s yours. 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/200
13. Jon Lester – I beat myself up a little (no, that’s not a euphemism for something else) on where to rank Lester. His xFIP last year was 3.62. I’ve seen better. His K-rate of 8.55 is great, but he’s done better. Looking inside his months, it’s hard to see why we should penalize him for two bad months (May and September). In May, he had one start vs. the Cubs where he gave up 5 earned in six innings, but the Sawx had a huge early lead, so he was pitching to bats. He was then torched by the Blue Jays for five runs in 5 innings, but three came in the 1st and then he settled down. Finally, he gave up 7 earned vs. the White Sox (obviously he doesn’t like Chicago pizza). In that game, he gave three early runs then 4 in the 6th to get chased. Then his bad month of September came when the entire club crapped on the memory of Johnny Pesky. Am I making excuses for Lester? Oh, fo’ sho. But he strikes out a lot of people. Hmm, guess I could’ve just said that. 2012 Projections: 16-9/3.25/1.22/200
14. Dan Haren – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until C.J. Wilson. I call this tier, “Wim Wenders’s favorite tier.” With my Haren ranking here, I’m basically blocking a Triple Word score with a solid, yet unspectacular word. I don’t think Haren is going to be someone who ends up out-performing this ranking (unless he lucks into, like, 22 wins). He is terrifically solid. No more, no less. It’s not a knock. It just is. 2012 Projections: 17-10/3.30/1.12/190
15. Jered Weaver – This year in and year out exceeding of his xFIP worries me. It’s like we’re being told to proceed with caution, but continue to ignore it and it works out. I don’t want the rug to get pulled out from underneath me, but I also don’t want to say he’s garbage because he has a bit of a track record that says he’s not. I’m going to put my ERA projection at 3.35, but if we get a 3.60 it wouldn’t shock me. I also don’t think it would make for that awful of a season either. 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.35/1.12/200
16. C.J. Wilson – When he landed in SoCal, I went over my C.J. Wilson fantasy. I wrote it while juggling fire. 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.45/1.21/190
17. Gio Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Am I crazy with these rankings? Yeah, crazy like a fox!” You’ll pardon me if I link to my Gio Gonzalez 2012 fantasy rather than reiterating. This post is already pushing 2000 words and eyes tend to glaze over after the first 125 words. 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.28/200
18. Matt Cain – He’s the only name in this tier that isn’t crazy exciting just reliable. If you think this is too high and that I’m crummy with crackers, his ERAs the last three years were: 2.89, 3.14 and 2.88. Like Harrison Ford’s Jewish roots, those aren’t too shabby. Need more convincing? He had more quality starts than Halladay last year. Sure, his xFIPs aren’t great, but he beats those every year, let’s just accept that. 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.10/1.10/180
19. Mat Latos – Albert went over Latos’s trade to the Reds when it went down. There he said, “When you think Padres pitching, you assume they get huge bumps from Petco – not exactly the case for Latos. While he has a slightly better K:BB rate at home during the course of his career, his slash lines are virtually identical: .229/.287/.348 at home versus .224/.286/.351 on the road. Bingo-bango!” I added the bingo-bango. To add to that, Latos was facing the Giants and Dodgers a heck of a lot. They’re, how do I say, terrible. Yes, that’s how I say it. Home or away. He’ll be a bit less the pitcher he was, but he’ll also have an actual offense and could be a sleeper to get 20 wins. I know, I know, I don’t count on wins either. Just putting it out there in the ether, no relation to Andre. 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.50/1.20/200
20. Stephen Strasburg – His fan club, The House of Strasburg, better launder their early-1900s, Austrian officer uniforms because we’re about to have our ordainment of St. Rasburg. I want to watch him more than I want to get in a bidding war to own him. If you catch my drift… If you don’t catch my drift, stand behind me. I’d be shocked if he pitches one inning over 160. For our friends from Latin America, we have a caveat: I wouldn’t go near Strasburg in H2H leagues, there’s no way he pitches in September. 2012 Projections: 12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings
