Welcome back to another foray into the Top 100 hitters for the 2025 fantasy baseball season. Last week, we covered the first few rounds and the top 20 hitters in our draft rankings. This week, we dive into the players with slightly wider variations in their potential outcomes to close out the top 40 hitters. Digging into this part of the draft is like ordering your favorite coffee: you know you’re getting good value with your medium latte, but every once in a while, the barista goes rogue with an extra shot of espresso, giving you more than you bargained for. Terrible analogies aside, this part of the draft should still provide reliable value. However, if you’re not careful, you might be reaching beyond a player’s true ability. Buckle up, grab that medium latte, and let’s break down the top 40 hitters for the 2025 fantasy baseball season.
21. Jackson Merrill
22. Freddie Freeman
23. Trea Turner
24. Corey Seager
25. Rafael Devers
The first tier as we step into the twenties pits two players moving in opposite directions back to back. Jackson Merrill is on the upswing after an outstanding rookie season, hitting .292 with 24 homers and 16 steals. We can expect growth from Merrill, and a 30/20 season with a .300 batting average is very much within reach in 2025. He could be a steal at this point in the draft. On the other hand, Freddie Freeman struggled at times last season due to injuries and a slight drop in overall production. His quality of contact took a step back for the second year in a row, and he hit under .300 for the first time in five seasons. However, his runs and RBIs remain strong, and while he was slowed by an ankle injury in the playoffs, Freeman still managed to deliver when it counted. Some may be scared away, but Freeman still holds value in drafts, even though he’s no longer a first-round consideration.
Speaking of first-round talent, Trea Turner has been a top pick in the past. Unfortunately, he has been an erratic hitter since joining Philadelphia, with his aggressiveness on the base paths tapering off. Turner still has elite speed, capable of 40+ steals and nearly a .300 average with 20 homers, but it seems the desire to run, whether due to the Phillies’ plans or Turner’s comfort, has turned him into more of a 20/20 threat. Wrapping up this tier, we have two power hitters who can produce monster counting stats in strong lineups. Corey Seager gets the slight nod over Rafael Devers, as I prefer the Rangers’ lineup just slightly more than Boston’s, but this is a close call. Either player should be a solid pick at this point in the draft.
26. Brent Rooker
27. Manny Machado
28. Jazz Chisholm Jr.
29. Ketel Marte
30. Matt Olson
If you’ve been following along, you know the infatuation with Brent Rooker, which drives his ranking. Moving to a slightly better ballpark in Sacramento should help Rooker avoid regression after his breakout 2024 season, where he slugged 39 homers with 11 steals and a .293 average. Though still susceptible to strikeouts, Rooker made big strides last year, cutting his strikeout rate to 29% across the season, and it improved to 24% in the second half. He’s in line for another big year, and many people are still not fully buying in.
Manny Machado, Jazz Chisholm, and Ketel Marte all possess immense talent, but each comes with a significant question mark. Starting with Machado, the supporting lineup behind him has seen better days, as he’s expected to hit in front of Jake Cronenworth, Xander Bogaerts, and Jason Heyward, which will hurt his run scoring potential. He’s also a non-factor on the base paths, limiting his overall upside. Jazz Chisholm might have the highest ceiling of this tier, but his injury history makes him a real risk-reward pick. He has surpassed 100 games just twice in his career, but with third base, second base, and outfield eligibility in 2025, his versatility adds appeal. As for Marte, his career year in HR/FB (25%) last season was nearly double his career norm. We expect a decline in his power and, by extension, some of his counting stats. Rounding out the tier is Matt Olson, who has consistently generated some of the hardest contact in the league. However, after a slight step back in 2024, there’s potential for a rebound, but we must consider the risk of another down year.
31. Kyle Schwarber
32. Ozzie Albies
33. Jordan Westburg
34. Marcell Ozuna
35. Austin Riley
As we move past the top 30 hitters, this is the area where I want to start targeting players who could make a leap in 2025, especially those who might be undervalued based on current market prices. Kyle Schwarber and Marcell Ozuna are similar in that they both offer massive power and counting stats, but both also leave an uneasy feeling when drafting due to concerns about their batting averages or overall profile. If speed was taken early, adding a 40-homer, 100-RBI player like Schwarber or Ozuna isn’t the worst move. Ozzie Albies has immense talent but has been plagued by injuries, particularly wrist and toe injuries in 2024, which is concerning for a player who relies on both speed and power. If he returns to his 2023 form, he’ll be a steal, but durability remains a concern. Jordan Westburg is a breakout candidate, as he ranks in the top 10% of the league for expected batting average, expected slugging, and sprint speed. His batted-ball profile compares to guys like Manny Machado and Rafael Devers, so a breakout season is very much on the horizon. Finally, Austin Riley, coming off a down season in 2024, had averaged 159 games and 35+ homers over the previous three seasons. While there is room for improvement, we can’t fully bank on him reaching that 35-homer mark in 2025.
37. James Wood
38. Pete Alonso
39. Wyatt Langford
40. Junior Caminero
This final tier, closing out the top 40 hitters for 2025, is all about upside and the possibility of big things happening. However, each player carries some risk, making them far from sure things. Anthony Santander had a monster 2024 with 44 homers, 102 RBIs, and a low .235 batting average. His BABIP was an unusually low .225, but given his lack of speed, there’s limited upside for a major average rebound. James Wood has first-round potential with his toolset but struggles with lifting the ball. He posted a 2.4-degree launch angle, one of the lowest in the league, and hit fly balls just 18% of the time, well below the league average. If he can improve his fly-ball rate, his potential could be immense, but that remains to be seen.
Pete Alonso has been a consistent power threat, and a repeat of his 2024 season is exactly what fantasy managers want to see. Wyatt Langford’s 2024 season was a tale of two halves—struggling through August before turning it on in September/October with a .300 average, eight homers, and eight steals. If healthy, there’s tremendous potential here, which might make this ranking too low. Lastly, Junior Caminero made his debut in the second half of last season, hitting six homers with a .248 average over 43 games. His Statcast metrics were average, but the potential is there, and we’re betting on it coming to fruition in 2025.
This concludes the Top 40 Hitters for the 2025 fantasy season. Stay tuned for more of the Top 100 Hitters, and good luck with your drafts!
I like Westburg a lot, but Maaaaaaaan, I can’t put him over guys who have done it before like Riley, and Alonso. This is too rich for my blood. You’re paying for the breakout that hasn’t happened yet.
It looks like you have a preference for young players that may or may not be on the verge of a breakout. Can you talk about your mindset with that. I’m interested to know more.
I love these types of questions! Maybe it needs to sneak into the next Cards and Categories podcast. Rankings are a mix of math and art in my opinion and have to match with how you approach building teams. So a few thoughts that drive that type of dynamic:
1. These are the rankings for what I believe players will deliver in value and not necessarily where I believe they need to be drafted. That said, I do believe Westburg can and will bring similar value to those other guys you mention.
2. I believe there is a really big importance in 5×5 drafts, which is how I base these rankings, on acquiring well rounded players with speed early the draft and building a strong foundation that can leverage the low average/speed and high power bats later in the draft.
3. I always bake in some version of ceiling in the picks. For a guy like Alonso, we know what his best is and that he has started to slip to some degree. He is very unlikely to outperform his draft position considerably considering he is a power only bat. Westburg however, is still on the upswing and learning in his career and if he keeps improving, we could be looking at him like a Gunnar Henderson based on the all around skillset. Is that the likely outcome? No, but I will pay a little more for the guy that has the potential rather than a guy that has less high end upside.
There is no right answer and ultimately you have to live with your draft and your team. I am taking Westburg over both of those guys and if he delivers a bit less value, I am ok with that outcome.
I am encouraged by how high you have Westburg. I traded for him in my keeper league during this offseason – $5 Westburg for $12 Bryce Miller. I love Miller and am really sad to lose him. Been waffling on it ever since I hit Accept
I fully endorse this move. Miller is good, but as a control/spin artist his upside is capped from a strikeout perspective. There are other starters I would pick up and be thrilled to have Westburg.
12 team, H2H-My next pick in 2nd round–Tatis, Julio or Acuna?
I am taking Julio by a hair on that one!