Nearly five years ago I went live with a post entitled Nostradumba** which was a piece of software I developed to help make fantasy baseball predictions. At first it was a disaster, recommending I draft Reggie Jackson and other inactive players. Realizing that wasn’t going to cut the mustard, I made a few tweaks that seemed to get the system running more smoothly, enabling me to make some less ridiculous dart throws. Earlier this year I cleared out one of my MacBook Pros so that my daughter could use it for remote 2nd grade. The school gave them all sh!tty Chromebooks that might have been less powerful than George Michael’s Sports Machine. While getting the MacBook setup, I found Nostraduma** and decided to bring it back to life. Here’s what it had to say.

Anthony Rizzo will be a top five 1B. Rhys Hoskins will be a top ten 1B.

Cavan Biggio will finish outside the top ten 2B, but both Mike Moustakas and David Fletcher will not.

Ke’Bryan Hayes won’t do much from a fantasy perspective.

Corey Seager has the best chance of beating out Trea Turner as the best SS.

Mike Trout will have more points than any other hitter. Wait you say. That’s not a bold statement you say. I beg to differ considering he has never been the top points getting hitter.

Buster Posey will be a serviceable fantasy catcher. That seems like more of a statement. How many of you drafted Joey Bart? While we’re on the subject, how about Adley Rutschman?

Eugenio Suarez will lead all shortstops in home runs.

Gerrit Cole will win his first Cy Young award, never to win another. I did pick Lucas Giolito in the staff picks post, but this is me contradicting myself.

If he stays healthy, Stephen Strasburg will be a top ten starting pitcher.

Given his ADP, Kevin Gausman will be one of the most valuable fantasy pitchers.

Here’s a few other thoughts I can share.

Don’t sleep on Michael Brantley or Eddie Rosario. I realize neither are shiny new toys, but both will end up on a lot of championship teams.

In keeper leagues reach a few rounds for Luis Severino. The same could be said for Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard, but I prefer Severino out of the three. In non-keeper leagues they all have a solid chance to produce at high levels later in the season. Could be just the thing a fantasy team needs for that playoff push.

I’m not sure who will be the fifth starter for the Dodgers, but I’m leaning Dustin May. Love his strikeout potential.

In leagues formerly know as auction leagues, don’t get blinded by the big names and spend a wad of cash on one guy. While I’d love to own Mike Trout, he’s currently going for approximately $50. Here are my projected stats for Trout:

43 HR, 112 RBI, 113 R, 111 BB, 148 SO, 11 SB, .284 AVG

Using the scoring system I generally use as a reference in my posts, that comes to about 530 points. That’s pretty damn awesome. But what is my value for $50? That’s 10.6 points per dollar. What if instead we got Manny Machado for $30 and Whit Merrifield for $20. Combined they are projected to put up 903 points. That’s 18.06 points per dollar. You make the call. I say throw in Eddie Rosario for another $12, take the 1294 points and call it a day.

Follow malamoney on Twitter at @malamoney

 
  1. everywhereblair

    everywhereblair says:
    (link)

    I’m here to start the Mike Trout bandwagon, thank you very much

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      I’m onboard!

  2. Marty the Celery Salesman says:
    (link)

    This thing reads like a love letter to my keeper league squad this year. Great minds; let’s hope ;-)

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      Nice!

  3. Lenny says:
    (link)

    A replacement player who might score 250 pts for $1 is 250 per dollar. You’re not going to draft a team like that though. I see your point but don’t you have to contrast the points per position also?

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      Replacement players need to be handled differently.

  4. Ryan741 says:
    (link)

    Need a trade opinion in a H2H points league. Pretty standard scoring, only major difference is an extra point for every extra base hit, and SB are worth 2.5., and K are -.5 instead of a full point. I’d be trading Lindor/Sano for Albies/Tim Anderson

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      What are the keeper rules?

      • Ryan741 says:
        (link)

        We can keep 5 guys based on round value, so I have Acuna, Tatis, Flaherty, Sixto and Lindor that I kept this year. Lindor was the earliest keep in the 8th. Albies has a 11th round value. I have tons of keep options with Vaughn and Wander also both in the 15th, so keeper value isn’t as important as production for this year

        • malamoney

          malamoney says:
          (link)

          Based on projections, the difference between Lindor and Anderson is expected to be about 100 points. That’s about the same difference between Albies and Sano. Where are you rostering Sano? Who replaces him in your lineup?

  5. Oldmanoldman says:
    (link)

    You are appreciated! I need to pick up one more guy for my final DH spot, and I was wondering if you liked anyone in particular from the following: Haniger winker Kyle Seager Hosmer

    • Oldmanoldman says:
      (link)

      I should add that the scoring format is standard with the exception that RBIs are worth two points

    • malamoney

      malamoney says:
      (link)

      I’m leaning Haniger for the upside, but if you want safe then I’m leaning Seager. Although I find it hard to call Seager safe.

  6. Commish Cauda says:
    (link)

    16-team H2H-Points League (W=7, L=-5, QS=5, Inn=1, Walks allowed=-0.3, Hits allowed=-0.1, SB=3)

    My SPs:

    Bieber (keeper), Kershaw, Burnes (keeper), Luzardo (keeper), Lynn (keeper)
    Bench: Ray and Trevor Rogers

    Went bats early and often because of all the keeper arms. Now have been offered Freddie Freeman straight up for Kershaw by a team with weak pitching.

    I don’t have a lot of SP depth, and my offense is solid, but I’m crazy not to take it, right?

    My bats:

    C – Will Smith
    1B – Olson
    2B – Solak
    3B – Machado
    SS – Javier Baez
    MI/CI – France
    OF – Conforto, Lewis (inj), Haniger, Victor Robles
    U – Y Moncada

    Bench: Chris Taylor, Willy Adames, R Tellez

    **Kelenic in single minors spot

  7. Systems Overload says:
    (link)

    A much belated thank you for your annual points spreadsheet Malamoney Because of it I drafted a stellar squad. Quick question, what are your initial thoughts on the Springer injury? I drated him as my OF 1 with Rosario, Laureano, Hicks, and Frazier filling out the position (have to start 3). I’m not an alarmist but I’m not feeling overly confident with this group should Springer miss extended time. Should I look to upgrade this position and if so when? Thanks a million man.

Comments are closed.