Several of you have asked via email, Twitter and the comments sections of previous posts if I will be generating my spreadsheet again this season. The short answer is, I think so. The follow up question has been, “when?”. To that I say, based on the last two years, it will most likely be some time around the second week of March (or so). Gotta love how I give myself the “or so” escape clause. These things take time. In all seriousness, it really does take a “you know what” load of time to get ready. In the meantime, as part of my preliminary work in generating said projections/rankings, I am publishing my early rankings right now. I thought about starting with shortstop because I’ve yet to see someone start with shortstop, but instead I’ve decided to be boring and kick it off with first base.
Paul Goldschmidt – Once again Paul is the gold standard at the one spot. The symbol for gold on the periodic table might be “AU”, but it should probably be changed to the currently unoccupied “PG”. He’s going to be good for about 30 homers, 100+ ribbies, 15+ stolen bases and a .300 batting average. Mark it down. Anything less will have his owners chugging Goldschläger and calling him a schmidt head. Does anyone even drink Goldschläger anymore? (2017 points per plate appearances: 0.804)
Freddie Freeman – I’ve got to tell you, I was toying with the idea of giving Freeman the top spot. I think that if he can pick up where he left off last season, he’s got a real chance to overtake Goldschmidt. But until I see it, I’m not bold enough to make it official. However, when it happens, I will point back to this post and claim victory anyway. And like they say at the end of most beauty pageants, if the winner is unable to fulfill their duties as winner, the runner-up will step in. I suspect Freeman will be a little light in the runs batted in category. Oh let’s not forget that he has 3B eligibility in many leagues. (2017 PPPA: 0.785)
Joey Votto – Perhaps we can compare Mr. Votto to a fine wine. As he gets older, he gets better. Votto has been on a slow, but steady incline since 2015. His stolen bases have dropped, but so has his strikeout totals. Is he seeing the ball better? I think we will start to see a small decline in his age 34 season, but even declined stats from last year would be near-MVP quality. Last season Votto led, not only all first basemen, but all hitters in fantasy points with about 614 (varies based on scoring system). (2017 PPPA: 0.868)
Anthony Rizzo – Since 2014 Rizzo has been a top five first bagger every season. He will be a top five again in 2018. I just don’t see him being a top three. However, if you play in a wimpy league that only requires ten games played for position eligibility, then Rizzo gets a nice bump being eligible to fill the 2B spot. It’s a good thing his jersey number isn’t 15, otherwise he might be known as AR-15. Something no civilian needs. (2017 PPPA: 0.782)
Jose Abreu – 30 knocks, 100 RBIs and a .300 average. Put it in the books. Abreu has been solidly consistent season after season. I was tempted to put him ahead of AR-44, but Rizzo’s got a better supporting cast. However, considering that I’m seeing Abreu regularly going in the third round of mock drafts, I think he’s that better value play. But since I’m not factoring ADP into this, he stands behind Rizzo in line.
Edwin Encarnacion – E5. Does anyone still call him that since his move to first base? Considering he has averaged the fewest errors of the primary starting 1B over the last three seasons, I’d say he’s long overdue for a new nickname. How about HR40. Any guesses which first baseman has averaged the most home runs over the last three years? If you guessed Encarnacion with an average of 40, you’d be spot on. He’s also averaged the most RBIs. He’s gone in the late 4th and late 5th rounds in the two H2H points league mock drafts I’ve participated in with other “experts”.
Cody Bellinger – Ignoring both Chris Davis and Joey Gallo (both 1B eligible and irrelevant), I project Bellinger to lead all first basemen in strikeouts. This is the only reason I have him behind HR40. Bellinger has found success at every level and it seems things haven’t changed in the big leagues. Not only will he lead in strikeouts, but he will also lead the way in home runs. Unless the next guy in the list can continue where he left off.
Rhys Hoskins – If I’m being honest, I really don’t know how I feel about Hoskins. What he did in 50 games last season was outstanding. Not Tree House Haze mouth watering, but definitely a “Larry David pretty good” good. He proved that his power in the minors would also play in major leagues. Clearly he can’t keep up that pace, but slow it down to even “a medium pace” (previous link contains graphic lyrics) and he’ll still have solid power numbers.
Eric Hosmer – Personally I like the move to sunny San Diego for Hosmer. I’m guessing we’ll likely see a dip in his homer totals, but I’m expecting that loss to be more than adequately offset by reasonable increase in doubles and hits. I’m not sure if he ever crossed paths with Wil Myers in the Royals farm system, but I think the two might become decent lineup mates. I’m going out on a bit of a limb with this ranking, but I’d rather be wrong than boring. At least I think so.
Buster Posey – I really hate including Posey in my first base rankings, but the it’s not like he doesn’t belong here. I’d like to meet the owner that’s actually rostering Posey at 1B.
Carlos Santana – Here are my “off the top of my head” projections. 25 HR, 80 RBI, 5 SB and a .255 batting average.
Matt Olson – I’d just like to point out that he hit 8 more home runs than Hoskins last year with only 19 more at bats. He’s going to give Bellinger a run for his money in both the home run and strikeout competitions.
Miguel Cabrera – How the mighty have fallen. Unless injured, I can’t imagine a scenario where Cabrera doesn’t have a bounce back season. The question is how far he bounces back. I say he bounces back about this far, although I could see him sliding in right behind Hoskins.
Honorable Mentions: Wil Myers, Ryan Zimmerman, Josh Bell, Marwin Gonzalez, Jose Martinez and Brandon Belt)
