Since there were no games this week and players haven’t been able to get hot or cold or humid, this Buy/Sell is going to be slightly different. This Buy/Sell includes some players that are owned in more than 50% of leagues. Okay, that’s not different for the Sells, but it does change the Buys. “Hello? No, B-U-Y-S. Thanks, you too!” That was GLAAD calling me about potential insensitivity. I have not triggered anyone in almost three days, unless you count that fisherman I saw with a pipe that I called “Hipster Popeye.” As I mentioned in my top 100 for the 2nd half of 2017 fantasy baseball, my biggest Buy of the 2nd half is Manny Machado. He’s about to come on in the 2nd half like he’s Mickey Maris in 1927 with Barry Bonds’s personal trainer. For the 2nd half, I gave Machado the projections of 48/18/49/.288/3. This year he’s been gun shy. He’s swung at 4% less pitches inside the strike zone. Either guessing wrong, or just being flat out beat by fastballs. Ground balls have gone through the roof (especially if ants are reading) and fly balls have fallen, and I don’t mean a defective zipper. Bad swings, and weak contact? I’m gonna call them flailing balls, lightly chuckle to myself and sip my Tom Collins. That’s all bad news, said Mr. Exposition. The good news is, it’s a small sample size — that’s what she said snidely! — and it’s been mostly propped by a terrifically terrible — terribically? — May. His May was so bad it will hold down his season-long stats. In May, he had a 6% line drive rate and a 51% ground ball rate. El oh what? Was he a 78-year-old Jeter for a month? By the way, 78-year-old Jeter is dating your 23-year-old niece, and you’re proud of her. You absolutely should buy Machado, and on the pronto. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
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As in our inaugural post last week (in which we managed to break both Jason Vargas and Jim Johnson! Who will it be this week?), Dr. Easy and I will be taking another look at a few more players who may be doing better or worse than you thought they were. To do this, once again we went trawling through the Razzball Season-to-Date Player Rater (all hail Rudy, Rudy for king — hell, let’s just elect him Fantasy Baseball Overlord), looking for surprising performances to help you with trade targets, waiver wire pickups and DFS plays.
Precipiently* (*not a word), in Monday’s daily goodness, Grey referred to the crap-ton** (**not a Système International unit, for the scientists playing along at home) of home runs that are being launched at the moment. “I have two mixed leagues where I feel like if I’m not getting at least five homers per day, I’m falling behind,” he hath quoth. Dr. Easy and I had just started to think about a similar thing: in this brand-new reality, in each category considered by the Player Rater, what constitutes “falling behind”? Take a guess: what would constitute a good HR or SB season? How many home runs are enough home runs? How many steals does a player have to have — or be on pace for — to be giving you value in a particular category? So this week, we’re taking a look at that too…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Seems like even the injury bug is down in Miami enjoying the All-Star game so we’ve got a light load of injuries this week. However, I fully expect him to come back twice as strong once everyone starts exerting themselves again after enjoying Mama’s home cooking and catching up on Orange is the New Black on the couch for the week.
As always, if you’ve got league specific injury questions please leave them below in the comments and I’ll get back to you!
Please, blog, may I have some more?Marwin Gonzalez is batting .308/.391/.576 with 16 home runs, 29 runs scored, 53 RBI, and four stolen bases in 258 plate appearances. On the Razzball Player Rater, Gonzalez is the 62nd overall player. But it gets better. G is the 13th first baseman, ninth third baseman, and 26th outfielder. Holla! Is it sustainable?
Please, blog, may I have some more?With the rapid speed at which Ronald Acuna has ascended through the minors, I ought to take every opportunity to write about him while I still can. If you hadn’t heard, Acuna was promoted to AAA on Wednesday evening, and the Braves best position prospect since Jason Heyward is now just a call away. Exciting news for dynasty league owners all over. In my updated Mid-Season Top 100 I ranked Acuna 5th in all of baseball, and after seeing the confidence the Braves have in the precocious 19 year old, how could you not? He brings to the table hard contact with an all-fields approach, 30 steal speed, and a huge ceiling. The plate discipline could be better, but to put things in perspective, he’s 19 and playing at the highest levels of full season ball while many of his contemporaries are just beginning short season and rookie ball. So I expect plate approach to be an area where things should improve as Acuna matures as a hitter. What he does at Gwinnett will be telling, particularly if he really struggles for the first time in his career. How he deals with that, adjusts, and rebounds will be the true test of his metal. It’s tough to say if he will struggle or not, but if he hits the ground running, I could picture a world, maybe as soon as a month, where Acuna is considered the top prospect in the game. Trust me I’ve made bold proclamations about Acuna before. Here’s what I said when I ranked him #42 overall in the pre-season, “Could be this season’s Victor Robles. Five tool player, that tore up Australia this winter, poised for a big jump in the mid-season list. Trade for him now”. I was right on both fronts, but was more conservative with his ETA setting it at 2019. That’s obviously no longer the case, outside of unforeseen circumstances of course. **KNOCK ON WOOD** Anyway, Acuna has a strong chance of seeing at least a few weeks of action in September, but I wouldn’t expect a call-up in the next few weeks. Though the possibility of Acuna breaking camp in 2018 is less remote than it was a few months ago, I’d be surprised by any promotion before mid-May next year. He’s a name to know for players in all formats, as this could be a stud in the making. Here’s what else I saw in the MiLB…
Please, blog, may I have some more?I really wanted to start this post with a quote, something like “it’s always darkest before the dawn”, or something like that. I figured that was a great way to offer hope and encouragement regarding the “second half” of the season. Let’s face it, with this whole “seamingly” out of nowhere spike in offense the last two seasons, there’s one inevitable conclusion. Pitching sucks!!! I mean we’ve been holding onto any shred of decency available. Look at Jason Vargas! Why am I ranking Jason Vargas? Does he have some sort of magnificent secret about these new Hi-C joints MLB is calling balls? Why the hell is he so much better than Justin Verlander? I have too many questions! I’m supposed to have answers! Here’s the truth, as if I’ve been lying to you before. There’s maybe 20 matchup proof starters in all of baseball, and then the rest of them you have to be careful with to varying degrees. Now, that’s not necessarily true for points formats, or deeper leagues with quality starts. Or even those with a greater emphasis on counting stats over ratios. But in our RCL formats, or any 5×5 roto with innings or starts limits, you must choose wisely. Around every corner lurks a roofie to your ratios. Just because Jordan Montgomery has been good more often than not, that doesn’t mean I’m up to a level of confidence that I’d start him in Colorado. Nah mean? Nod along. If you’re having trouble knowing which starts to avoid, check out Rudy’s Stream-O-Nator. It’s the perfect objective voice on those tough decisions you won’t get in your own head, or from your friends. That is, if you have friends with voices in your head and all. Anyway, be careful out there, and good luck in the second half.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Yes, I know that title doesn’t really make sense, but my mind is clouded by the lack of meaningful box scores. I normally like to be on vacation during the All Star Break, especially ever since Major League Baseball cruelly lengthened it from three to four days. In my opinion, the only thing worse than having no baseball for four days in the middle of the summer is having fake baseball and something called the ESPYs on for three days in the middle of the summer, and I’d rather be as busy as possible during this time. Sure, every once in a while something interesting will happen during the Home Run Derby, and occasionally the actual game is watchable, I suppose. But seeing Yadier Molina hit a bomb that doesn’t count for any of the fantasy teams I own him on just makes me, well… sad.
Basically, watching baseball the last two days was just a few hours of waiting for things NOT to happen. It was worrying that a player crucial to one of my teams would screw up his swing trying to hit pretend homers, or pull a hammy running out an infield hit that wouldn’t even help his own batting average, let alone my fantasy team’s. It was also a painful reminder of why I’m not doing well in certain leagues – namely, having to watch the players I don’t own anywhere who came out of nowhere (and by nowhere, I mean the late rounds of a fantasy baseball draft) to become bona fide 2017 all stars, often leading their fantasy team owners to the top of the standings.
Drafting players in the middle and late rounds who outperform their draft position or auction cost is important in any fantasy league regardless of structure, but it is absolutely crucial in NL-only, AL-only, and other deep leagues. I’m sure Clayton Kershaw and Jose Altuve are on plenty of first place fantasy teams, but I suspect the real names you’ll find over and over again when looking at the top of the standings are more like Ryan Zimmerman, Ervin Santana, and Jason Vargas. With that in mind, and with no fringey deep league player playing to talk about picking up, I thought I’d use the break to take a look at the players who are some of the first half MVPs in deep fantasy leagues: those that have outperformed* their 2017 pre-season ranking** by the widest margins. We’ll also take a look at their second-half futures via Steamer projections for the rest of the season (with some completely unscientific, woman’s intuition-style guesses from me as to whether or not I agree). Obviously none these guys is likely to be available in a shallow league, let alone deep formats, but with most of us facing a fake baseball trading deadline around the same time the real one hits, we’ll need to be thinking about whether any of these players are worth buying… or selling, at the right price.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Happy All Star Break my fellow RCLers. The Razzball Commenter Leagues can take a toll on your time, you social life and your personal hygiene. I hope you’ve used the break to take a shower, get out of your sweat pants and get reacquainted with your roommates, also known as, your family. They’ve missed you. Spend a moment and remind them that you are in fact, alive and well and that you haven’t been held against your will for the past 14 weeks in an old abandoned mine in the local woods. In fact, you’ve just been winning fantasy baseball leagues. You know, just like you idol, Grey Albright. Speaking of Grey, he made a big splash in the top 10 overall this week and there is a new overall leader in the Master Standings. Is it Grey? Is it a robot? The suspense is killing you, I know. Check out this and other RCL drama in the week that was, week 14:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Aaron Judge baffles me. Is he a beefy version of early 2000s Richie Sexson, or he is something more legit? No offense to early 2000s Richie, of course. His (we’re back to Judge, now) numbers in the minors (albeit a relatively small sample size of) suggest more of the former, but his 2017 insists on the latter. Strikeouts aside, he seems to have combined a complete and nearly flawless approach at the plate with a compact swing and elite power. In March, we weren’t even sure if he was going to be the everyday right fielder for the Yankees. Now, he is a lock to win Rookie of the Year, the clear favorite to win MVP, and could very well win the Triple Crown.
He has 30 home runs to only 13 doubles (big boy has three triples, too), which means nothing except that when he connects he CONNECTS. Lifting power, my friends. The fly ball revolution is upon us, and only 50 years after Ted Williams told us all about it. And with Judge’s superhuman power, a willingness and ability to drive (and lift) the ball to the opposite field, a right field porch in Yankee Stadium that is a few feet behind first base (roughly), and juiced baseballs that are leaving parks like they’re golf balls, what is a popup behind second base for most batters is a home run to the upper deck in right field for Judge. That was a very long sentence. Let’s pause to catch our breath here.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Grey was in such a great mood to begin the podcast, talking about frolicking around town on his off day eating rolled ice cream and LA ham sandwiches with little Asian girls. That is until I mentioned a bad podcast review we got on iTunes, which irreversibly changed the tone of the entire podcast and had him flying off the handle. He talked crap on the comments he gets under his daily articles which bother him, he goes hard at Fangraphs for incorrectly predicting Rougned Odor’s lack of power would make him cry at the all-star break, and he threatens to ban the IP address of the rogue bad reviewer if he ever finds out who did it. Through the angst, we manage to breakdown his Top 100 2nd Half Rankings, starting at the top with Bryce Harper, Paul Goldschmidt, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Mookie Betts. We dig into his optimistic Aaron Judge ranking and cautious Cody Bellinger ranking, and also discuss his ranking of young aces Lance McCullers, Luis Severino, Alex Wood, and James Paxton. Finally, we bring on our boy Kenneth Cashman from RotoWear.com to talk t-shirts and rapping, and he leaves us with an insane Razzball rap to end the interview. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Podcast:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Welcome, prematurely balding men and five women who are married to prematurely balding men and decided if you can’t beat them, join them! Make yourself comfortable, this is gonna be a long post. Here, enjoy some coffee. Oops, you just drank rat poison. Don’t worry, it can’t be worse than owning Matt Harvey in the 1st half. Oh, you owned him and that’s why you drank the poison! Now, I’m following! Hey, I’m supposed to be leading! Before we get into the top 100 for the 2nd half of 2017 fantasy baseball, let’s just be glad our 18-year-old selves can’t see us now, we’d get beat up! But our twelve-year-old selves would think we’re the coolest! So, as with all of the other 2017 fantasy baseball rankings, take this list with a grain of salt. If you need a 2nd baseman, but an outfielder is above him that doesn’t mean you can’t trade that outfielder for that 2nd baseman. Also, things change in fantasy baseball. Daily. I could put Bryce Harper number two on the top 100 list for the second half of 2017 and he could pull a–Well, we won’t even mention an injury with Bryce. Why soil a good thing, ya know? This list is a road map for where I think guys are valued. It’s not the Holy Grail in the Church of Grey, that would be my mustache. This list is NOT (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics) where I see guys ending up if you were to take their first half and combine it with the 2nd half. This is simply a list of the top hundred fantasy baseball players if you were to pick them up today. So while Mike Trout did not have the greatest first half, he will appear on this list because, well, Mike Trout. The projections are not their combined 1st half and 2nd half numbers; these are their projections for the 2nd half of 2017. I also liberally used our rest of the season Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. That’s right, we have a Player Rater that tells you what players will do. It’s like that camera from The Twilight Zone. Welcome to the future! Anyway, here’s the top 100 for fantasy baseball for the 2nd half of 2017:
Please, blog, may I have some more?This is an excerpt of a phone call Razzball intercepted during Sunday’s afternoon games. Since every state involved is a two-party consent for recording, we cannot reveal who recorded the call, but it rhymes with Trudy Gramble. Here, let’s listen in: “Hello, this is the CEO of Super Ball, the world’s hardest, bounciest, craziest, shouldn’t-be-used-as-a-baseballiest ball. Who is this calling?” Our Commissioner Rob Manfred disguises his voice so he sounds raspy, “I’m Kathleen Turner. I was wondering if you would sell me 70,000 Super Balls to not be used for baseball purposes.” “Body Heat Kathleen Turner? Not to get all James Lipton, but I am a huge fan of your–” “Okay, toots…” Manfred lowers the phone receiver, to his secretary, “Toots?” Back into the phone, “Um, so don’t make me kill you and blame a different femme fatale. I need those Super Balls.” So, yesterday was bonkers for homers, yet again. I will now list the home runs by guys in just the Astros game: Yulieski Gurriel (2-for-5, 2 runs) hit his 11th; Jose Altuve (3-for-4, 4 runs, 3 RBIs, hitting .347) hit his 13th; Evan Gattis (2-for-5, 2 runs, 4 RBIs) hit his 8th and Carlos Correa (4-for-5, 5 RBIs) and two homers, his 19th and 20th. Holy Salami Tom, there’s a crapton of home runs this year. I have two mixed leagues where I feel like if I’m not getting at least five homers per day, I’m falling behind. Also, on a pitching front, if I can just maintain a 3.50 ERA, I could come in first for ERA. By the way, I hope we’re not sued by Our Commissioner Rob Manfred, but something must be done. Get the Super Balls out of baseball! Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?