When I began this series of rankings with the top 10 college baseball prospects, it was explained that I would be detailing “the top 10 college baseball prospects to target mid-season (and beyond).” As we embark on this incredible journey (which is a wholesome, classic film chronicling the beautiful friendship of dog, cat and dog again), I must forewarn you that we have officially crossed the threshold into the “beyond.” Yes, that is correct – I am indeed your tour guide, Michael Newman (as played by Adam Sandler), who will now use his universal remote control to reveal to you with 100% projection accuracy college prospects No. 11-25 as it relates to future fantasy output.

Before getting into the thick of things, I need to make two very brief and entirely unrelated remarks that will in no way provide any meat to the bones of this article. First, I apologize for the excess of film references I have made already, but don’t expect them to be curtailed any time soon. Second, if you truly have not seen The Incredible Journey, drop what you’re doing right now and buy it on Amazon Prime for $2.99. Best three dollars you’ll ever spend. Even better than the authentic George Springer banging stick I snagged off ebay for three measly bills.

As we dive into the latter stages of these rankings, one thing needs to be made seriously clear: with the exception of a few names on this list, the vast majority to follow likely fall under the category of finds for deeper leagues only. If you’re in a serious dynasty league in which the draft is primarily prospects and upcoming college guys on an annual basis, I would consider all of these players. Use the information given below and then draw your own conclusions about who to target based on the specificity of your league.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Mon 8/4
ARI | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CIN | CLE | COL | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | ATH | CHW | DET | OAK | SEA | WSH

After assessing starting pitching the last couple of weeks (ERA, WHIP), today I turn my attention towards the hitting side. There are so many unknowns right now about the length of the upcoming season; possibilities include everything from no games, to a full 162-game season stretching until Christmas. With at bats & counting stats completely up in the air, evaluating hitters with rate stats makes sense. What are the best ones to use?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Rudy didn’t like Rounders and he finally watched it the week we are having Scott Pianowski on the podcast…. After the initial shock of Rudy’s poor movie tastes, Donkey Teeth and B_Don ask Scott how he’s handling the quarantine and what a potential baseball season may look like. We get his thoughts on how he would adjust his draft philosophy for anyone drafting during the quarantine.

We move on to a couple of Scott’s teams as we look at the rosters he assembled in the RazzSlam and the Yahoo Friends and Family league with Grey, DT, and many other experts (basically the unofficial major of the fantasy baseball world). We look at how Scott put together pitching staffs in each draft and how position depth and flexibility affect his draft strategy.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So, usually I have an idea if a team is good, and, if I don’t know that, I have some idea when the season will begin, but welcome to the year 2020 when all is unknown. I’m currently typing this with my hands tied behind my back so I don’t accidentally touch my facet–Face! Damn it, this typing with my nose is more difficult than I thought it would beet–Damn! This is giving ‘hunt and peck’ typing a new definition. More like ‘hen and peck’ amiright? Don’t answer me because you might accidentally transmit saliva into the air. Thanks, and remember, SOCIAL DISTANCING!!!, which is what I scream at Cougs every time she comes within six feet of me. Makes for interesting sleeping as our bed is about six feet in width. So, the RazzSlam is a Best Ball tourney with Points scoring. Everyone likely knows what a Best Ball league is, but, if you don’t, it’s when you draft a team and the computer manages it for you by choosing who are the best players, and you get those stats. It’s basically one fantasy league removed from the robots taking over and killing us all. Well, the last laugh is on you robots, there’s a virus beating you to the punch! Anyway, here’s my RazzSlam, 12 team draft recap:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

For many stuck at home during this health crisis, we have suddenly been given the responsibility of “home schooling” our children. For some I know this has been quite a challenge, especially those with more than one child. Fortunately for me I only have one, a first grade girl that enjoys math and reading. Also fortunately for me, I work from home 99 percent of the time, so I’m used to the environment and routine. As for having a kid constantly looking to play, it just feels like the summer to me. Although it did snow here yesterday.

One of the math worksheets I gave my daughter this morning required her to determine which way the alligator mouth opens to. For those not in tune with first grade math lingo, this is referring to the greater than/less than sign. The alligator mouth opens to the bigger number. I can almost see light bulbs going on in some of your heads. Chomp! Chomp! Anyway, I figured I’d play a little game of greater than with points league players for the supposed 2020 season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

“It’s day 127 of the quarantine and all pitchers have already had Tommy John surgery. Now our first manager is going under the knife.”

“I was reaching for a toothpick and I heard something pop,” said Dusty Baker.

For those who have resorted to wiping their butts with baseball news for lack of toilet paper, Noah Syndergaard has a torn UCL and is kaput for 16-ish months. If only someone told you to avoid Noah Syndergaard, huh? What’s that, Voice In My Head? I told everyone to avoid Noah Syndergaard? Aw, jeez, I think you’re right. Voice In My Head, can I ever be as smart as you? Voice In My Head, “No. Shut up.” Wow, graciousness has left the chat. In my top 40 starters for 2020 fantasy baseball, I had a tier of guys to avoid, that tier had in it Noah Syndergaard, Luis Severino and Chris Sale. Gosh darn it, fellas, I might be as smart as the Voice In My Head. Can you even imagine it? This Syndergaard news is terrible. Dot dot dot. For all the people who wanted to draft him but got off easy because their drafts were delayed until MLB stops washing its hands of the season. Seriously, the only thing that sucks in all of my absolute genie-ness psychic ability is everyone not getting a chance to draft these pitchers before it’s too late. People tend to hate when people take victory laps over injuries, but I have on my Fitbit and I’m going for a jog! I’ve been saying to avoid Syndergaard for so long (two years), due to funky things going on in his peripherals. Maybe I didn’t know 100% he was injured, but I 100% knew something was wrong with him, and have been saying it. Not sure why people are thinking he tore his UCL just this week. This is the Mets and their doctors. Syndergaard was likely injured for the last two years. Okay, I’m out of shape from too much quarantining, so pulling the victory lap into the depot to freshen up with some hand sanitizer. On a side note, all of these guys going for Tommy John surgery might be signaling something else. No, not that they have no porch that needs repair like you during the Corona timeline. It means we might have more baseball this year than next year. If there’s a lockout to start the 2021 season, and baseball returns in June for the 2nd year in a row, how many starts do these guys miss? Not to answer, but to ruminate until our next full season in 2022. Anyway, here’s what else I saw for 2020 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

In these dystopian times, my mind can only wonder if Mad Max could ambush and/or eradicate COVID-19. Probably not since the Rona is invisible, but Max Rockatansky could do unimaginable things when mad, so I’m not completely dismissing the possibility. There is another Max, though, who may ease the pain that COVID-19 has brought into our fantasy baseball universe, and that’s Max Kepler of the Minnesota Twins (Max Scherzer is too old and happy from winning the World Series). And this Max is mad as well because he’s being drafted as the 136th overall player in NFBC drafts from 2/1 – 3/23. Is it warranted for this Max to be mad, and can he bring a ray of sunshine into these gloomy days?

Kepler was signed at the age of 16 back in 2009 for the largest signing bonus ($800k) ever given to a European-born player. He then spent three years in rookie ball, where he hit for a high average, showed good plate discipline, had a high BABIP, and produced 10 home runs and 7 stolen bases in 269 plate appearances during the 2012 season. As he moved up the ranks, the walk rate continued to improve (from 10% to 13%), while the strikeout rate remained very low (13% to 15% range). The BABIP also remained above .300 while Kepler continued to hit for a good average. When he finally received consistent playing time with the big club in 2016, the batting average and BABIP both plummeted, while the walk rate went down to 9% and strikeout rate went to 20%. Not uncommon when making the leap to the majors. He was a 18 home run and 6 stolen base player the first two seasons in the majors. Then in 2018, things started to improve. The walk rate went back to above 11% while the strikeout rate cratered to 15.7%. The batting average and BABIP continued to trend lower, though. He ended the season with 20 home runs and 4 stolen bases. Last season, Kepler broke out with 36 home runs but only stole 1 base. The walk and strikeout rates were similar to 2018, but the ISO spiked while the batting average increased to .252 with a BABIP of .244.

Kepler ended last season as the 107th offensive player for fantasy, so the NFBC ADP seems fair. Is there room for improvement?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So, I’ve agreed to draft another fantasy baseball team this weekend.  I honestly can’t tell you how many that makes for me in 2020, and I don’t really care at this point.  At first I was worried about how I could possibly manage juggling so many rosters should baseball ever return (PLEASE, PLEASE return sometime this summer, baseball!) Now, though, I’ve decided that I’m just going to carry on, figuring that having a “problem” like having 20 or 30 lineups to set come July would be the greatest problem I can possibly imagine right now.

Since I’m still drafting and I know many of you are too — either joining public online leagues as a therapeutic way to pass the time, or participating in drafts for leagues you’ve been in for years and have had planned all off-season — I thought I’d look at the current state of players outside the top 250, and which names I have my eye on as being a potential value that late.  I’m basing these ADP numbers on MattTruss’s Monday post in which he included a beautiful spreadsheet unveiling weeks worth of RCL ADP, so theoretically this is data that many of you have actually contributed to.  Some of these players’ values got a slight VHB* bump, others I’m valuing exactly the way I would during a normal season.  This is an extra tough week for me, as I try to keep what would normally be the sunshine-y giddiness of Opening Day from being permanently replaced by an ugly cloud of darkness… but to that end, let’s try to be safe, stay positive, and think about how insanely exciting it will be to finally have baseball to watch, whenever that may be.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As quickly as the baseball season was approaching it came to a screeching halt even faster. With no baseball on the docket for seemingly a few months at minimum, Grey and myself dug into our Tout Wars auction results. We talk high level strategy in each format and how we executed our pre-draft game plans. It’s not the show you deserve but it’s the show you need! Join us for the latest episode of the Razzball podcast. Oh BTW, wash your hands!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

You ever draft, like, twelve teams and have eleven teams that are all very similar and one team that is nothing like the other teams? This, here, is that other team. In theory, this team could be my one good team and the other eleven could be garbage, but I sure hope that’s not the case. I started this draft like every other league this offseason — by taking Pete Alonso in the 2nd round. At that point, this team veered into a different direction to never return. For those not in the know, it’s a weekly, 15-team, 5×5, two-catcher league that lasts for 50 rounds and there’s no waivers. NFBC has decided to cut off new slow draft leagues like this one, so I don’t think we’re doing another one this year. Sorry, I wanted to do one more league too. I will now put on The Knack and change the words in my head to My Corona. Anyway, here’s my NFBC draft recap:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Luke Weaver was the perceived center piece in a trade for an MVP candidate, Paul Goldschmidt, only 15 months ago. It feels much longer than that as these days we are stuck inside roll by without baseball, but it’s true. You can look it up! Weaver went on to have a brief, but dynamic 2019 season with a 9.65 K/9 and 1.96 BB/9. There were only 5 qualifying pitchers in baseball from a season ago with a higher K/9 and lower BB/9! Why then am I here to write about my disinterest in Luke Weaver for the 2020 season? Is it the inability to grow luscious facial hair like our illustrious Razzball leader? No. I wish it were that simple. I could save myself 1000 words. Instead sit up and enjoy a few paragraphs on why you shouldn’t waste a top 200 pick on Luke Weaver.

The first strike against Weaver is that he hasn’t shown the ability to break the ceiling on 140 innings pitched in a professional season. This downfall can be alleviated by a condensed season and we have all come to the realization that pitchers with less total innings can have fantasy baseball value if they are dynamic enough. This is where the fork in the road comes in for me and Weaver. For him to be a roster worthy fantasy player you must believe in one of two things. He has the capacity to be an accumulator, or he is so dynamic that a lower innings pitched total can be offset by the per innings numbers he provides. The former, even in a condensed season, seems unlikely based on history. We cannot forget that Weaver is coming off a season in which he missed 4 months with a sprained UCL. The Diamondbacks had already made public that they will be monitoring his innings. That may change, but I ask to you the reader, have we learned nothing from Chris Sale? I know I have. There are only so many Masahiro Tanaka’s in the world who can go multiple seasons with a UCL hanging on by a thread. Since this is the case Weaver must be elite in his per inning numbers in order to be fantasy relevant. There will be owners who believe he can do it, as he did it in 2019. I will not be one of those owners.

Please, blog, may I have some more?