Chris Sale, P: $11,800 & Max Scherzer, P: $11,600 – I’m not going to even waste your time telling you how good they are. Play them.
Wait a second…I’m sure all you faithful readers out there are saying “But this is a FanDuel article, we only get one pitcher!”. You’re right. So, Sale or Scherzer? This comes down to matchups and ballparks. Scherzer is facing a very good Arizona lineup, in Arizona – and unless it’s confirmed that the humidor has begun being used, Chase Field is a top-3 non-Coors offensive ballpark. On the other hand, Chris Sale is facing the pathetic Angels offense, which is approaching 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers territory for lopsidedness. For those who don’t remember, that’s the Cavs team that made the finals with Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Sasha Pavlovic, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and a small forward that remains comically underappreciated and underrated throughout his entire career. The problem is, baseball isn’t basketball. One amazing hitter can’t carry an otherwise inept lineup. The 2002 San Francisco Giants demonstrated that absurdly lopsided offenses only work if you have the single greatest offensive player of all time and a second elite-level hitter (and have at least one or two other guys that aren’t complete embarrassments – that year it was Benito Santiago and David Bell). Trout’s trying his best to be Barry Bonds, and Andrelton Simmons, shockingly, isn’t a complete embarrassment, and neither is Luis Valbuena. But the lack of Jeff Kent means this offense isn’t going to give anyone trouble. Additionally, Angel Stadium is an offense-killer, although it does get credit for not selling its naming rights (although the Cubs played in Cubs Park, but then changed the name for the 1927 season to a gum company, which is now considered a non corporate name, so the lesson is, just last a long time). So while I couldn’t fault anyone for deciding that Scherzer’s their guy tonight, when you consider that Sale is facing a vastly inferior lineup and pitching in a far more pitcher-friendly ballpark, the choice (for cash) seems fairly straightforward. And yes, astute readers of mine should note that Scherzer’s GPP-value is through the roof as my hunch is that Sale’s ownership is far higher, and it’s entirely possible Scherzer outscores Sale as both are quite dominant and it may just come down to who gets 11 strikeouts as opposed to 8.
On to the picks as soon as Guaranteed Rate Field becomes a fun, cozy name…
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PITCHERS NOT NAMED SALE OR SCHERZER
Alex Wood, P: $10,200 – As great as Scherzer and Sale are, you can certainly make the case for using Wood in a GPP. He’s got a K-rate that is almost as good as Scherzer or Sale’s K-Rate (Wood is 30.2%, Scherzer is 35.7% and Sale is 36.4%). The main difference between them is that Alex Wood rarely goes past the 6th inning as the Dodgers (correctly) are by far the most aggressive in giving their starters the hook, even if they’re pitching well, so Scherzer and Sale are far more likely to get that extra inning or two that Wood simply will not. But that’s why Wood’s $1400-$1600 cheaper. If that extra money gets you some offensive upgrades that you really like, it’s a very good GPP pivot.
Jeff Samardzija, SP: $8,800 – Samardzija sports a ridiculous 23.7% K-BB% this year, striking out 26.4% and walking an amazing 2.7%, which is 2nd to only Josh Tomlin. He’s caught a bit of the home run bug this year, allowing 17.4% of his fly balls to become big flies. If the strikeouts and walks stay the same or even similar and the bombs come down to his career rate, he’s an elite pitcher. He’s facing the Padres, who are leading the Majors in strikeouts vs righties with 25.9%, don’t walk (7.5%) and are average-ish in power (.166 iso). It all adds up to an 85 wRC+. The other thing Samardzija has going for him is he pitches for the Giants, who let their starters go long, and then let them throw another inning so he can get you that extra inning you need to place in a GPP. The last start he got destroyed by the Padres, which should be a good thing for ownership and might keep it down.
HITTERS
Charlie Blackmon, OF: $5,100 – One of the most interesting things about Charlie Blackmon’s season last year was that he wasn’t simply a Coors Field mirage – he hit .335/.399/.540 at home (.398 wOBA) and .313/.363/.563 (.348 wOBA) on the road as his post-Shang Tsung dominance began. This year, however, he has a comically large split (.525 wOBA at home vs .318 wOBA on the road). What does this mean? Well, first, that home/road splits are subject to an incredible amount of noise and sample size issues. The more relevant point to this article is this, however, Charlie Blackmon in an elite hitter, and has been since the 2nd half of 2015. He’s at home, where he’s been beyond ridiculous this season, leading off, against a weak Trevor Williams (4.47 xFIP with projections to match), and while he’s certainly expensive, he’s worth it.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates don’t have a lot of power individually, so using them as one-offs in Coors isn’t that appealing in the abstract, given how typically teams see their DFS salaries skyrocket when they play in Coors. However, FanDuel didn’t boost their salaries that much (besides Andrew McCutchen), so there is definitely some appeal there as one-offs due to price. Where the Pirates are most appealing, however, is as a stack, because while they don’t have a lot of individual power, they do have is a lot of high-contact hitters, so if you think they can hit Jeff Hoffman, and seeing as how he currently doesn’t miss bats (8.7% swinging strike rate and 7.65 K/9) and doesn’t get ground balls (36.3% GB%), that’s certainly a defensible argument, then their GPP stackability is through the roof. Stacking the Pirates would get you the full benefits of the lineup rolling out singles and doubles one after another. That said, given the relatively cheap prices (for hitters in Coors) of Starling Marte ($3800), Josh Harrison ($3700), and Gregory Polanco ($3800), any of those guys would make sense in a cash context too.
Houston Astros – If you’re building a lineup with Chris Sale or Max Scherzer, just skip this section as the Astros you’re going to want are just way too expensive. However, if you’re thinking of a GPP lineup that fades the two stud pitchers and uses a much cheaper hurler, stacking the Astros has a lot of potential – they’re facing the gas-can that is Ubaldo (he’s really bad), their offense is mind-bogglingly good (it’s really good), and they will be relatively low-owned because anyone using Sale or Scherzer can’t possibly use more than one or two of the big name Astros, so a full stack of the top guys has a lot of DFS upside here. Although, Josh Reddick at $2,900 and Brian McCann at $2,700 are pretty tasty at their prices for cash – it’s really just Springer ($4200), Altuve ($4100), and Marwin ($3500) who are too expensive.
Bradley Zimmer, OF: $2,600 – Zimmer has massively cooled off since his .409 BABIP fueled hot start, but he’s still a solid player who’s batting leadoff vs Marco Estrada who’s doing his usual striking guys out (25%), walking guys (9.3%) and giving up a ton of fly balls (32.2% GB%). He usually does worse vs lefties, so Zimmer’s power should give him an advantage to get a ball out. He’s also batting leadoff and cheap, which is always a tasty combination.
New York Mets – Paul Blackburn is someone who’s just going to throw his stuff over the plate and whatever happens, happens. He’s not going to miss any bats, and he’s going to get a boatload of ground balls and he likely won’t pitch deep into a game. With the amount of contact he gives up, even if he is at a 55% ground ball rate, he should give up a dinger or so. My bet would be Lucas Duda, who smashes ground ballers, but he’s likely batting too low in the order to roll in cash. But all the Mets are solid plays if you want to do a stack or a one off and with the A’s bullpen losing 2 elite arms, the Mets should be able to face a soft pen when Blackburn leaves the game.
Kansas City Royals – James Shields is going to give up a home run. The fun part is going to guess which crappy hitter is going to get it. Since he started his homer happy ways, he is way worse vs lefties but he’s an equal opportunity dong distributor in terms of per 9. The overwhelming favorite is Mike Moustakas, who is slugging .544 on the year, but Ned Yost inexplicably bats him 6th below hitters who are objectively terrible. The other guy who I’d look at is Sal Perez who has both fat man power and fat catcher power and is slugging .517 this year. Any Royal is a good one off, but I’d struggle with the stack since the team is awful offensively (85 wRC+).
Corey Seager, SS: $3,900 – Aaron Blair, still terrible. In the minors this year, he’s not missing bats (7.01 K/9), he’s walking guys (4.19 BB/9) and not getting ground balls (39.3% GB%). Corey Seager, if you haven’t heard, has the most home runs by a Los Angeles Dodger shortstop. Corey Seager is also an elite hitter, .381/.517 over his career, and .394/.537 vs righties. He’s expensive, but he’s clearly the top SS option today, he might even be the 2nd best and 3rd best option today.
Cody Bellinger, 1B: $3,700 – The same applies to Bellinger. And because Blair has no idea where the ball is going, it’s likely he’ll throw one down the middle to Bellinger. This would be a colossal mistake, because Bellinger likes the middle middle pitch very much and he hits it very far. Note to MLB pitchers – maybe stop throwing him belt-high fastballs.
Alen Hanson, 2B: $2,000 – Sometimes, you roll a really bad leadoff hitter because he’s cheap just because #RespectTheLeadoff. Hanson has no power, no batting average skills and doesn’t walk. His only skill is he’s fast and steals bases, but because he never gets on base he doesn’t have the raw totals you like to see. So why am I recommending him? He’s a 2k crapper on a day with multiple elite pitching options and a game in Coors, Vegas has the total at a respectable 4.5 and #RespectTheLeadoff. Of course, if he’s not batting leadoff, stay away.
Marcus Semien, SS: 2,300 – Semien has some pop and everything Matz has done this year has gotten worse than last year. Matz K rate is down, his velo is down and his swinging strike rate is down. His walk rate is down and his ground ball rate is down. Semien also beats up lefties pretty well to the tune of .347 wOBA. On a day where the SS options aren’t plentiful, you like to find someone who’s got at least something going for him to get out cheap. Semien, if he bats at the top of the order, vs lefties is an underrated matchup vs someone who does have blowup potential.
Yoan Moncada, 2B: $2,500 – I’m not actually recommending Moncada, but he’s the #1 prospect, so I’d figure I’d mention him. He struck out a ton in AAA (28.3%) and had a high BABIP (.379) on his way to being 29% better than league average with the bat. I expect him to struggle due to his contact issues and the projections agree with me and have him replacement level with the bat.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Minnesota has a pretty big chance of thunderstorms before game time and looks like it might have problems getting the game in. Colorado has a nice chance of rain and thunderstorms during game times. This game is more, how much do the Rockies hate their fans and players since there is an opening much later in the night. My guess is they hate their fans and players a lot and try to get the game in.
Doing Lines In Vegas
I’m not seeing anything that says the Tigers should be +125, so I’ll take the Twins. Ervin Santana is actually pretty decent vs righties and the Tigers lefties aren’t good or are overrated because of insane small sample size splits, coughAlexAvilacough. Of course, Justin Upton and Miguel Cabrera are still good and they can hit anyone, but the bottom of the order is awful and Kinsler is no longer a good leadoff hitter, especially vs righties. Quick digression here on Miguel Sano. Sano did a tremendous job at the Home Run Derby even though his pitcher couldn’t throw a decent strike, was dotting up cutters and couldn’t throw the ball in the strike zone. It was so bad, that at one point, Sano got frustrated and hit a ball out that was at his ankles. If you give him Judge’s BP pitcher (who was legit great at it, seriously, he should have just thrown to everyone), that would have been a lot closer. I’m obviously not saying that Sano would have won, but it would have been much closer. Anyway, take the Twins.
