Well, technically it’s still June, but July starts tomorrow and Christmas in June doesn’t have quite the same ring to it. I’ll be honest, I’ve straight up dropped Gerrit Cole ($8,900) in my RCLs. He’s been more like reindeer excrement than coal this season, and nobody likes that in their stocking. The RCLs are a very specific type of animal though where it’s not worth holding a pitcher that isn’t pitching like an ace. While Cole has been far from ace-like, I can still get behind him when the match-up is right. The San Francisco Giants are in full-on “give up on the season” mode. This can be evidenced by such moves as installing Sam Dyson as closer. The Giants are DFL in team OPS and when you break it down even further, they are last by a long shot against RHP. Cole checks all the boxes tonight, he’s at home, a Vegas favorite (-120) and is facing a weak opponent. The only thing better would be a strikeout prone opponent, but that’s just getting greedy for the asking price. You don’t want to get too greedy on Christmas, that’s how you end up with a lump of coal.
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Alex Wood, SP: $10,500 – Alex Wood has been an absolute machine this season. His 10.51 K/9 and microscopic ERA are the things DFS dreams are made of. If that dream were to get any sweeter he’d be facing a team that strikes out the 4th most in all of baseball and has the league’s worst team OPS vs. left handed pitching all in a pitching friendly environment. Oh wait, all of those are happening, dreams really do come true!
Robbie Ray, SP: $9,600 – I would rank my top pitchers tonight as, Wood, deGrom, Ray. Considering deGrom is a whopping $1,600 more than Wood and $2,500 more than Ray, I’m not sure I’ll be rostering much of the hairy wonder. Ray gets a choice match-up with the Rockies on the road where they have the 5th worst team OPS. The Rox also have the 6th most strikeouts in MLB. Now that I think of it, I might just like Ray more than deGrom after all.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP: $7,600 – Strikeouts pay the bills in DFS and while the guys mentioned above are a little more safe in terms of predictability and chances of getting the win, Folty can win the day with his Ks. Oakland is the third most K-friendly team in the majors right now and Folty has shown flashes of strikeout brilliance. Just his last time out he K’d nine Brewers in 5.1 IP. The Brew-Crew is second on that strikeout list, so that gives you a bit of reference. If the Braves should somehow managed to get Folty some run support, you could have yourself a nice, low-owned option in GPPs.
Mike Montgomery, SP: $7,300 – Grey already gave you his Mike Montgomery fantasy the other day and the same still applies. As stated there, his 2.50 ERA doesn’t quite match-up with his 3.64 FIP or 4.25 xFIP. There could be a blow-up on the horizon, however, that 60.8% GB rate helps limit some of the potential damage. Not the best match-up in the world, but the price is right, so there’s that.
Wilson Ramos, C: $2,300 – Punt catcher, it’s pretty simple. Ramos is the cheapest he will likely be all season long, so hop on it while you can. Chris Tillman has been a punching bag all year long and I’ll be looking to get more than a couple Rays in my lineup tonight. [Game Note: There seems to be conflicting reports on whether Tillman or Bundy is starting Friday’s game, so keep an eye on that. Apparently Tillman could be heading on paternity leave any second now.]
Willson Contreras, C: $3,300 – If you must pay up for catcher, at least get one hitting clean-up. Feldman lasted a grand total of 2.2 innings the last time he faced the Cubbies while giving up 5 ER. I don’t see much changing in this one.
Logan Morrison, 1B: $3,600 – Like I said, I’m all over the Rays tonight and Morrison is a great GPP pick with his “HR or nothing” approach. He’s been the hottest hitter on the Rays and has the platoon advantage…not that it would matter a whole lot if he didn’t.
Justin Bour, 1B: $3,000 – Justin Bour in Milwaukee, yes please. Three thousand dollars you say? I’ll take two! Facing Matt Garza? I’ll take three!
Rougned Odor, 2B: $3,000 – Odor fogged the mirror yesterday, swiping two bags. With Trea Turner (RIP) down for the count we’re all counting on you to live up to that draft day price Odor! Three thousand is pretty solid for a guy with the platoon advantage against Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey is awful at holding runners on. Since 2013 he has an 86% success rate against him. If you filter out pitchers with less than 200 IP, that’s the 5th “best” in the majors. Shout out to Rudy’s SAGNOF tool.
Dee Gordon, 2B: $2,900 – Speaking of SAGNOF, Dee Gordon makes a nice compliment to go along with Justin Bour. Mini stacks-R-Us.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $3,800 – I only have eyes for one 3B tonight, but I figured I should at least give you options. Jon Gray has his first start off the DL, I would expect a smidgen of rust and Lamb to take advantage of said rust.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $3,400 – Now, onto my real choice at 3B tonight, Evan Longoria. I told you I love my Rays tonight but I LURVE Longo. Check out this insane BvP data against Tillman: 20 for 66 (.303) with NINE homers and a stolen base. N-I-N-E. Lock and load.
Wilmer Difo, SS: $2,100 – I’m punting SS today. The top guys don’t have great match-ups for their price so I’m looking elsewhere. With Turner down, Difo should be the fill-in at SS. He’s a warm body. If you’re not playing Mike Montgomery I would also peak at Jose Peraza for the same price tag.
Francisco Lindor, SS: $3,700 – If you’ve got money to burn, Lindor is your best bet here. He gets a match-up with Anibal Sanchez and his 45% flyball rate and should feast.
Giancarlo Stanton, OF: $4,000 – I love Giancarlo and the thought of him having his way with Matt Garza in Miller Park is pretty sweet. Imagine what Stanton would do playing his home games in a hitter-friendly park like Miller or Camden Yards or Fenway Park? Crazy. Also, if I needed to save $400, Stanton’s teammate, Marcell Ozuna is a nice option as well.
Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $3,300 – Queue the DJ Kahled…”All his does is hit (righties) hit no matter what (as long as they are righties). Got righties on his mind, he can’t ever get enough. Everytime he steps in the batter’s box all the right hands go up.” Hmmm, maybe it needs work but Choo should be in the leadoff spot against Pelfrey.
Mallex Smith, OF: $2,800 – Is FanDuel the slowest DFS site as far as reactive pricing is concerned or is it just me? This still seems too cheap for Mallex, but I’ll take it to go along with my other Rays bats tonight.
Brian Goodwin, OF: $2,700 – Speaking of cheap. Goodwin has been hitting the ball solidly and occupying the two hole in the potent Nationals lineup. It will be curious what the Nats do with their lineup sans Turner, but it’s possible Goodwin even moves into the leadoff spot. Check the lineup and deploy as needed.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
This is why we can’t have nice things. Domes people, we need retractable domes everywhere. We don’t have flying cars yet but darnit we should have retractable roofs on all baseball stadiums. We have the potential for rain in Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Detroit, Chicago and St. Louis. That’s a lot of radar watching. Let’s form a prayer hexagon and hope for the best shall we?
Doing Lines In Vegas
deGrom and the Mets are the biggest favorites on the night (-240) however, Alex Wood and the Dodgers are right behind (-200) and have a nicer game total (7.5 vs. 8). The 7.5 runs is the lowest total on the baord tonight. The highest game total is the TB@BAL (Tee Ball series!) game with a 10.5 over/under. Again, no one seems certain who is starting this game for BAL, but apparently Vegas is unconcerned.
