One of these Weavers just doesn’t belong…in the majors. We’ve got both Weavers going tonight and the two are near polar opposites. Luke Weaver is breaking his way into the majors, while Jered Weaver is pushing his way out. One is young (23), the other not so much (33). One throws a 92 MPH fastball and one throws about a 62 MPH fastball. Jered’s K/9 is about half (5.03) of Luke’s (11.32) and their xFIPs couldn’t be much different (2.79 for Luke, 5.75 for Jered). All of this is why one of these Weavers is a wonderful cheap DFS play (and streaming option in season-long leagues) and the other is a guy we love to stack against. Riddle me this DFSers, why then is Luke Weaver priced over a grand LESS than Jered Weaver? Luke checks in at a measly $5,200 and is my top pitching play of the night because of it. You might think it’s all small sample size so far for Luke Weaver, but digging into his minor league numbers you’ll see a 10+ K rate in AA with a FIP of 2.04 in 16 games. I’m buying, especially in a pitchers park (SF) tonight. Meanwhile, stack those Jays. Let’s look at a few more plays for tonight’s slate:
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Chris Sale, SP: $12,600 – While Luke is my top pick when price is factored in, there’s no better option than Sale vs. the Royals. You might consider Mad Max vs. the Braves, but give me a sec to change your mind. I’ve been one of the biggest proponents of picking on the Braves around these parts and I’ve also been burned plenty of late, including just a couple days ago with jose Fernandez. This led me to dig into some numbers. Post All-Star Break the Atlanta Braves have a top 4 team OPS (.773) and are bottom 5 in Ks (412). The Royals meanwhile have been pathetic including a bottom 3 team OPS (.679) and a middle of the pack amount of Ks (449). That’s an OPS down with the likes of San Diego and Philly FYI. So, you tell me who you’d rather toss out there tonight.
Jose Berrios, SP: $5,000 – I know it’s been rough for Jose, but he’s practically free and he’s facing the Mets. If you wanted to have all the Rockies and Jays are belong to you, then spending a combined $10,200 on Weaver and Berrios would get that done. It’s a high risk, GPP only move.
Tom Murphy, C: $2,900 – If Murphy is in the lineup, he might be 100% owned, and for good reason. If he’s not in the lineup, just take Gary Sanchez vs. Clay Buchholz. That’s like the unstoppable force facing the most easily moved object.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $4,600 – Since we’re saving so much on starting pitching, we don’t need to dig too deep elsewhere. Still, Edwin comes at a slight discount and gets to face my buddy Jered Weaver.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B: $4,200 – Miggy is our BvP special of the night. Get this, in 42 ABs Miggy has 20 hits (.476) off Kluber. Of those 20 hits, 5 are home runs. Just for good measure, he’s even got a stolen base off Klubot. How does that happen?
Starlin Castro, 2B: $3,700 – Did you know Starlin has been batting cleanup lately? That’s bananas. How is this team still winning games? I heard the other day their bullpen ERA has actually gone down since they traded away Chapman and Miller too. Joe Girardi must do some voodoo.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $4,300 – I think DK is setting me up to fail making all these Jays so cheap. Donaldson’s recent hip issues has caused his price drop, that and he hasn’t really had a hit in September…minor. Weaver is my kind of slump buster.
Manny Machado, 3B/SS: $4,100 – Machado seems to get his price knocked down against tougher pitchers more than any of the other elite options do. I don’t buy it, Archer/Smarcher, Manny’s hot and in Camden Yards, give me that discount all day.
Dansby Swanson, SS: $2,100 – Time to save some cash. Cheap MI life. Batting 8th Swanson should at least get on base a couple times, you can’t ask for much more for $2K.
Jose Bautista, OF: $4,300 – I get they’re on the road, but come on DK, what’s with these prices? This is my last Blue Jay recommendation, I swear (but only because I’m out space).
Kevin Kiermaier, OF: $4,400 – I don’t think anyone is hotter than Kiermaier right now and while Ubaldo has been decent of late, it’s only a matter of time before that old Ubaldo gas can gets lit up. If it helps at all, Kiermaier has a homer and 2 steals in his career 7 ABs vs. Ubaldo.
Marcell Ozuna, OF: $4,200 – Adam Morgan has the second worst wOBA vs. RHB among qualified pitchers with a .381. (For what it’s worth, Jered Weaver is next on that list with a .378. James Shields is numero Uno with a .394.) I was hoping to get an injury discount on Stanton, but no dice, DK was only giving out discounts to Blue Jays apparently. None the less, Ozuna is fairly priced and I’m game for any righties with a hint of power against Morgan at Citizens Bank Park..
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Not much doing tonight weather-wise. Cincy and Kansas City could see some scattered showers, but nothing to cause more than a smidge of delay.
Doing Lines In Vegas
No surprise Max Scherzer and the Nats are the biggest favorite tonight at -250. Still, I’d throw a couple Pesos on the Braves, just in case. Also of little surprise, Coors field dominates the over/under total with 12. After that, the Yankees at the Red Sox features a 10 run total. The lowest run total (7 Runs) is featured in Kansas City where Chris Sale faces off against Ian Kennedy.