If there is one thing that rarely scares me in DFS, it is ace pitchers facing off against a high-powered offense. Clayton Kershaw against Toronto; so what? Noah Syndergaard against the Cubs–big deal. Outside of a road start at Coors Field, I don’t ever overthink using an ace. The question that needs to be answered is whether or not Danny Salazar is an ace. In some folks’ eyes, he certainly is. From other viewpoints, he’s a solid number two with upside. There is probably a third group that says he’s totally overachieving, but they’re wrong and their opinion doesn’t count. This brings us to Wednesday’s split slate. The Houston Astros have a very good offense with a ton of power. On the flip side, they lead the league with 318 strikeouts. It’s either boom or bust for the Astros and with a strikeout specialist like Salazar on the mound, I’m willing to bet on bust. Salazar is holding opponents to a .142 average and has struck out 43 batters in 37.2 innings pitched. Walks are still a problem for Salazar (3.8 BB/9), but he has negated that by allowing a league low 4.3 H/9. He is the best pitching option on the board with the most upside and it isn’t even close. Use him in both GPPs and cash games.
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Chris Archer, SP: $10, 100 – Archer has given up just two earned runs in his last 18.2 innings pitched. The Mariners have a couple of lefties (Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager) that can do damage, but Archer’s strikeout upside is too enticing to worry about them. Pairing Archer and Salazar with several value bats is the way I’m leaning at this very moment on the All Day slate.
Kyle Hendricks, SP: $9,000 – I get it. Paying over $20,000 for a pair of pitchers makes everything else that much harder. You can save yourself about a grand if you downgrade to Hendricks. He doesn’t have the upside of either Salazar or Archer, but he’s a safe play against a terrible Padres offense.
Jerad Eickhoff, SP: $8,000 – The Braves have scored 90 runs this season, good for last in the league (they suck). Couple that with the fact that Eickhoff’s 8.4 K/9 is strong and you have yourself a fine play at a decent price.
Brian McCann, C: $3,500 – There are fewer catcher options safer than McCann, especially when he’s facing a righty. McCann is batting .283 against RHP this season and has gone deep three times so far this season at Yankee Stadium.
Geovany Soto, C: $2,600 – A great place to punt if you’re looking to afford two top flight starters is at catcher. Though he only has 19 plate appearances against LHP this year, Soto owns a .506 wOBA against southpaws. Just make sure he’s behind the dish.
Chris Davis, 1B: $4,400 – The Orioles face off against extreme fly ball pitcher Phil Hughes and this is right in Davis’ wheelhouse. He might go 0-for-5 with three strikeouts or he’ll hit two 500 foot home runs and spit his massive dip out on home plate after he rounds the bases. Davis does have one career homer against Hughes and is batting a respectable .267 in 30 at-bats.
Ryan Howard, 1B: $3,500 – Howard is similar to Chris Davis, only not nearly as frightening at this stage in his career. Sure, Howard is batting .185 on the year, but six of his seven home runs have come against RHP. Even a blind squirrel finds a nut on occasion. HAR HAR HAR.
Jean Segura, 2B: $4,600 – COORS EXPOSURE! Not only that, but Segura is a great option due to his gaudy .392 wOBA and .202 ISO against RHP. He is the best second baseman on the board on Wednesday.
Brandon Phillips, 2B: $3,500 –Phillips is underpriced and should be exploited, especially in cash games where he’ll be a safe play. He’s 5-for-11 lifetime against Juan Nicasio and is batting .321 with five homers over the last seven days.
Nolan Arenado, 3B: $5,300 – If you pay up for pitching, it’s going to be very tough to fit this masher into your lineup. He faces an average lefty in Robbie Ray and can go off for a monster game at anytime. If you go the cheaper pitching route, Arenado should be in your lineup.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $4,300 – Can’t afford Arenado? Can I interest you in a slightly cheaper option playing at the same ballpark? Lamb had three two-hit games in a row, including a monster game on Monday night where he dropped 36 points on DraftKings. Chad Bettis is no match for Lamb and he’ll bat second as usual.
Xander Bogaerts, SS: $4,900 – The A’s are starting Eric Surkamp who has more walks (12) and than strikeouts (9). Bogaerts is 8-for-18 against LHP this season and has been a lefty killer since entering the league. This is a great matchup. In fact, the entire Red Sox lineup is worth using if you’re looking to stack.
Jung Ho Kang, 3B/SS: $3,900 – Since returning from the disabled list, Kang has yet to record a hit against RHP this season (0-for-8), but there is nothing like a matchup against Alfredo Simon to get the ball rolling. He posted an .840 OPS against righties last year with 12 home runs.
Mark Trumbo, OF: $3,900 – This is the under $4,000 value outfield as you’ll need a couple of these guys if you’re paying up for pitching. With Trumbo, you get the same upside as Chris Davis. Unlike Davis, though, Trumbo has been on fire all season long. Using a couple of Orioles in the early slate would be smart.
Josh Reddick, OF: $3,800 – The only thing missing from Reddick’s game lately is power. He’s batting .625 over the last week and is totally locked in at the plate. Reddick has had success against Red Sox starter Rick Porcello (3-for-8, 1 HR) and with a drop in price from $4,300 on Wednesday, he makes for a great value play.
Lorenzo Cain, OF: $3,700 – After breaking out and launching three home runs on Tuesday night, why not try Cain again? He faces off against Michael Pineda who is always prone to getting beat up like my meat…what, you gotta tenderize before you put it on the grill. What did you think I was saying?
J.D. Martinez, OF: $3,300 – This is more of a contrarian play as Martinez faces off against Max Scherzer. Well, Scherzer hasn’t pitched well and Martinez does have a home run off of him in his career. There’s upside and Martinez will definitely be low owned.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There is a possibility of rain in Minnesota this afternoon and an even lesser chance of rain in Texas. All in all, it’s a pretty dry slate.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Naturally, Coors Field is a feast once again at 11u. Other good spots for bats include: Miami, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Texas, and of course, Boston. Looking for something a bit more contrarian? Try the Indians against Doug Fister. Ouch!
