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Author: Son

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Son

Bear or Bull: The Annual Kevin Delivering the Bacon Festival

September 12, 2018 | Uncategorized | 8 Comments

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Kevin Bacon was a freaking machine from 1990 to 1994. Flatliners in 1990. JFK in 1991. A Few Good Men in 1992. Earth would not Pass Go until the next Bacon hit was delivered. So, any wonder why 1993 was filled with terror and strife? A devastating tsunami hit Japan, the World Trade got bombed, and we got Beanie Babies! Order was restored in 1994, though, when the Bacon was delivered with one of his finest, The Air Up There. We love you Kevin, but what we most appreciated was the consistency and stability he brought to the world. As fantasy baseballers, we love that. There’s no greater feeling than being able to Sharpie in Mike Trout for .300, 35 home runs, 100 RBI, and 30 stolen bases every season. But there’s only one Mike Trout and a few that could be in that realm of awesomeness. For the others, it’s about streaks and Kevin Kiermaier is on one right now. The funny thing is that I wrote a Bear or Bull on him at this time last season as well. Is this a case of the Christmas Island crabs migrating from the forest to the shore to breed? Or the San Juan Capistrano swallows migrating north?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: I Know a Little German

September 6, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 6 Comments

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One of my favorite moves is Top Secret. Is it because I’ve watched it while smoking trees and eating magic mushrooms? Perhaps. Regardless, it’s a great movie. Click HERE if you don’t believe me. C’mon! That was awesome. Anyways, I’ve been fluent in German Marquez (68.9% – increase of 18.6%), so it’s nice to see him get close to 70% owned in ESPN leagues. 184 strikeouts in 164.1 innings! 10.08 K/9 and 2.85 BB/9. Ground ball rate of 47.2% and xFIP of 3.31. Swinging strike rate of 11.4%. Now, we know the big elephant in the room: Coors Field. Here’s the thing, though. One could argue that he’s been better at home! The K/9 is 10.51 at home while it’s 9.71 on the road. While the batting average is higher at home, the BABIP is .373 vs .240. The xFIP is 3.41 at home vs 3.23 on the road. In his last five home starts, he’s allowed 2, 0, 3, 2, and 2 earned runs. TREASURE

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Son

Bear or Bull: Jonathan Villar (JV) Earning That Varsity Letter

September 4, 2018 | Uncategorized | 4 Comments

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I was never a letterman jacket guy. Thought they looked silly. What always gave me a chuckle, though, was when I’d see someone wearing a letterman jacket but without the letter! C’mon man! Now, even though I wasn’t a letterman jacket guy, my ego was, so my chest puffed out a bit when I got mine my freshman year. Yes, I’m bragging, but in an Al Bundy sort of way. By the way, I hate the word humblebrag. Anyways, one is not just given a letter for the letterman jacket. One has to earn it by making the varsity team. Jonathan Villar (JV) has been a top 25 player over the past month, so he’s earning that letter. Is it sustainable?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Grand Theft Allen

August 30, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 14 Comments

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The GTA video game series will always be one of my favorites. I always appreciated the attention to detail, but at the end of the day, they were fun to play. Who doesn’t like carjacking people, “talking” to prostitutes, and causing mahem? Ok, maybe not the greatest game from a morality perspective. Anyways, one of the hallmarks of any of the GTA games was thievery, whether it be cars, banks, or friends, which is exactly where my mind ported to when I saw Greg Allen (29.7% owned – increase of 22.4%) was one of the most added players over the past week. Who? Exactly. I get it. SAGNOF. And since the beginning of the month, Allen is batting .306 and has 7 stolen bases. Here’s the thing, though. That lofty batting average is fueled by a .340 BABIP. The strikeout rate has been 11.9%. For the season, that number is right under 20%. Here’s the thing Part Deux. Allen’s OBP on the season is .285 and the walk rate is 3.6%. And he bats at the bottom of the order. Here’s the thing Part Tres. Allen is a .240-ish hitter. Low walk, low average batter that hits at the bottom of the order. TRASH

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Son

Bear or Bull: El Laureano

August 28, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 4 Comments

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On August 1, 2018, the National Hurricane Center began tracking a storm off the coast of Oakland. Residents did not flock to Costco to stockpile supplies or board up their windows in preparation, even though it was classified as a Category 1 hurricane. Granted, the residents don’t even flock to Alameda Colisuem on a good day. On August 3, 2018, “El Laureano” made landfall. It got a knock and drove in some runs, but mostly struck out. It languished in the Bay Area for a few weeks, but then started getting stronger. Exhibiting power. Causing an excitement that engulfed the area like a blanket of fog. Then BOOM, BAM, POW! “El Laureano” aka Ramon Laureano now has a .280/.321/.480 slash with 3 home runs and 3 stolen bases. What to make of this tropical force?

Ramon Laureano is a 24-year-old outfielder from the Domincan Republic. He is 5′ 11,” 185 pounds and bats from the right side of the plate. Laureano was drafted by the Houston Astros in the 16th round of the 2014 MLB Draft. In 2017, he was traded to the Oakland Athletics. You all probably know him for this, though:

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Darth Bader

August 23, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 4 Comments

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On July 31st, there was a great disturbance in the force, as Tommy Pham was traded from the Cardinals to the Rays. The black hole was subsequently filled by an innocent-looking 24-year-old with 315 major league plate appearances, Harrison Bader (43.4% owned – increase of 29%). Then it started happening. Each pitch thrown was met with anger. Each cleat dug further into the dirt until the shoe twisted, then churned the ground, causing a volcano-like explosion hurling a 190-pound mass of anger down the base path. The innocent-looking 24-year-old was no more. The hate. The anger. It all manifested to unveil….Darth Bader. He of the 46.8% hard hit rate. He of the .242 ISO and .576 SLG. If I compare the numbers from the month of August to the rest of the season (74 PA vs 223 PA), the swinging strike rate is down 2%, the chase rate is down 4%, contact rate is up 5%, hard hit rate is up 14%, and ground ball rate is down 10%! Could be a case of the small sample size, but it could also be that he’s playing regularly now. Regardless, there’s going to be some regression, as a .432 BABIP is unsustainable. With that said, the power/speed combo is too enticing and we all know that the force is strong in St. Louis. TREASURE

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Son

Bear or Bull: Yes, Jose. Saves Can Have a Face

August 21, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 7 Comments

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Life is about value. If something is rare, then it’s value increases and the owner will be reluctant to part ways with it. If something is in abundant quantity, then the value decreases and spending above market value price on it is sub-optimal. Since we are in the heart of fantasy football draft season, it only makes sense to talk about the late-round quarterback strategy. In leagues that require only one quarterback, it doesn’t make sense to spend high draft capital at the position because A) it is the most predictable position B) it is matchup dependent C) even if every owner in a 12-team league drafted two, that still leaves nine starters on the waiver wire. The same concept applies to Grey’s SAGNOF theory, except for slightly different reasons. Paying up for saves doesn’t make sense because the position is volatile with tons of turnover. Therefore, saves can be found on the waiver wire. In both instances, They Ain’t Got No Face because we have no issue using ’em, them losing ’em. But that doesn’t mean we can’t fall in love. That’s the ultimate, right? Like going to the club and, instead of a one-night stand, you find the partner that you want to spend all of eternity with. You say no way Jose? I say hip hip Jose, as in Jose Leclerc.

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Son

One Man’s Trash: The Zimmerman Museum

August 16, 2018 | Uncategorized | 8 Comments

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The role of a museum is to collect and preserve objects of cultural and historical importance. Often, the contents within remain relatively static over a short period. Everything can’t be great! Over time, though, things do become great and are eventually moved into a museum. Most are small enough to not cause a stir, but there are a select few times when it’s Must See TV. In October of 2012, I remember when the Space Shuttle Endeavour was transported from LAX to the California Science Center via the streets of Los Angeles. A site to behold before arriving at its final resting place. Those feelings I had back in 2012 are the same ones percolating within me now when I see Ryan Zimmerman (41.4% owned – increase of 27.8%) doing his thing. He missed close to three months due to injury, but since his return on July 20th, this is what Zimmerman has been doing: .365/.443/.731 with 4 home runs and 7 doubles in 61 plate appearances. The walk rate is 9.8% and strikeout rate is 18%. The ISO is .365! The hard hit rate is 50%!! There’s obviously going to be regression, but don’t forget that he hit 36 home runs last season and has gone yard 260 times in his career, which puts him tied for 207th all time! Zimmerman will be given occasional rest days and there’s always the chance that he gets sent to the museum sooner rather than later, but until then, you won’t find a better hitter with the combination of power and plate discipline on the waiver wire. TREASURE

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Son

Bear or Bull: See Willy Hit. See Willy Run. Free Willy?

August 14, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 11 Comments

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I have mixed emotions regarding zoos. It’s nice that there is a confined space where I can observe animals that I’d never be able to see outside of Youtube videos. Unfortunately, it comes at the expense of the well-being for the animals. They are not allowed to roam free in their natural habitat and do what they do. I often put myself in place of the animals. If aliens abducted me and put me in a cage, that would kind of suck. But what if they fed me and provided a La-Z-Boy, a computer, and PS4? And threw in a mate from time to time? Without having to do work? What?! Now, what if they forgot the wifi? That’d be inhumane as F. Anyways, I sometimes question whether every animal would be happy to be free from the confines of a zoo. I lean towards yes for most, but not so sure about the ones that are constantly being hunted out in the wild. That’s a stressful way to live. Anyways, being free means different things, depending on the perspective. How about in the context of Willy Adames, a player that’s owned in 7.5% of ESPN leagues but has a .405/.425/.622 slash with 4 stolen bases since August 1st? Free as in readily available to acquire? Free as in he is finally being unleashed? Or free as in you should let him go from your roster?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Wance Wynn

August 9, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 13 Comments

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Since being acquired from the Twins, Lance Lynn (43.9% owned – increase of 27.1%) has pitched 11.2 stellar innings for the Yankees: 7 hits allowed, 0 earned runs, 1 walk, and 14 strikeouts. He’s the toast of the town! So much so that the Ls have been replaced by Ws. Are people forgetting that he has a 4.58 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the season? Let’s break it break it down. The two games pitched in pinstripes were against the White Sox and Orioles. Two teams that are both top 10 in striking out against RHP. His next scheduled start is against the Rangers, a team that is 4th in striking out against RHP. I get the euphoria and understand why people are in a tizzy to acquire him. Lynn is a really good pitcher against righties: 10.39 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 27.2% K%, 0.76 HR/9, and 3.72 xFIP. Against lefties? 6.70 K/9, 6.28 BB/9, 15.2% K%, and 5.16 xFIP. The Orioles threw out a lineup with 2 lefties: Peterson batting 2nd and Davis batting 5th. Yeah. The White Sox have 4 lefties in the lineup, but two of them have strikeout rates in the 35% range. Now, the Rangers have Gallo, who strikes out 33% of the time against righites, but the rest of the left-handed batters have strikeout rates under 25%. In addition, the Rangers have the 6th-best walk rate against RHP. Lynn has a 6.28 walk rate against lefties. The White Sox and Orioles? 6.9% and 7.3%, good for 27th and 25th respectively. There’s win equity for Lynn pitching for the Yankees now, but he’s definitely not a must-start pitcher by any means. It’s within the range of outcomes that he dominates the Rangers in his next start, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets lit up. TRASH

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Son

Bear or Bull: Aledmys Has Risen From The Fantasy Abyss

August 8, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 19 Comments

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Throughout history, there have been many of great things that have risen. I have to put bread at the top of the list. Christ was head and shoulders above the pack, but I had to deduct points due to the lack of video evidence. Men with or without erectile dysfunction would agree with me that the penis has to be in the top 3. On the other side of the spectrum, not everything that rises is good. Hollywood would disagree with me here, but Jason rising from the dead for another Friday the 13th was sub-optimal for those trying to have a good time. Ever seen the creatures that live at the bottom of the ocean? Don’t want those rising up to the surface. How could I forget cost of living? For fantasy baseball, the same dynamic plays out. A rising number in home runs, RBI, and stolen bases are a good thing for a batter. For a pitcher, not so good. Every once in a while, a player will rise from the depths of the abyss and become relevant. Aledmys Diaz is one such player. The question is will he stay up or return back to the black unknown?

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