Since being acquired from the Twins, Lance Lynn (43.9% owned – increase of 27.1%) has pitched 11.2 stellar innings for the Yankees: 7 hits allowed, 0 earned runs, 1 walk, and 14 strikeouts. He’s the toast of the town! So much so that the Ls have been replaced by Ws. Are people forgetting that he has a 4.58 ERA and 1.54 WHIP on the season? Let’s break it break it down. The two games pitched in pinstripes were against the White Sox and Orioles. Two teams that are both top 10 in striking out against RHP. His next scheduled start is against the Rangers, a team that is 4th in striking out against RHP. I get the euphoria and understand why people are in a tizzy to acquire him. Lynn is a really good pitcher against righties: 10.39 K/9, 4.18 BB/9, 27.2% K%, 0.76 HR/9, and 3.72 xFIP. Against lefties? 6.70 K/9, 6.28 BB/9, 15.2% K%, and 5.16 xFIP. The Orioles threw out a lineup with 2 lefties: Peterson batting 2nd and Davis batting 5th. Yeah. The White Sox have 4 lefties in the lineup, but two of them have strikeout rates in the 35% range. Now, the Rangers have Gallo, who strikes out 33% of the time against righites, but the rest of the left-handed batters have strikeout rates under 25%. In addition, the Rangers have the 6th-best walk rate against RHP. Lynn has a 6.28 walk rate against lefties. The White Sox and Orioles? 6.9% and 7.3%, good for 27th and 25th respectively. There’s win equity for Lynn pitching for the Yankees now, but he’s definitely not a must-start pitcher by any means. It’s within the range of outcomes that he dominates the Rangers in his next start, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets lit up. TRASH
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Bear or Bull: Aledmys Has Risen From The Fantasy Abyss
August 8, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 19 Commentsby: Son
Throughout history, there have been many of great things that have risen. I have to put bread at the top of the list. Christ was head and shoulders above the pack, but I had to deduct points due to the lack of video evidence. Men with or without erectile dysfunction would agree with me that the penis has to be in the top 3. On the other side of the spectrum, not everything that rises is good. Hollywood would disagree with me here, but Jason rising from the dead for another Friday the 13th was sub-optimal for those trying to have a good time. Ever seen the creatures that live at the bottom of the ocean? Don’t want those rising up to the surface. How could I forget cost of living? For fantasy baseball, the same dynamic plays out. A rising number in home runs, RBI, and stolen bases are a good thing for a batter. For a pitcher, not so good. Every once in a while, a player will rise from the depths of the abyss and become relevant. Aledmys Diaz is one such player. The question is will he stay up or return back to the black unknown?
Please, blog, may I have some more?When you go to the club….DISCLAIMER: It’s been a looooooooong time….your eyes are attracted to the lights and sexy, scantily-clad girls dancing on the table/speaker/2-feet high heels. They are the show pieces and provide a good time whether you engage with them or not. The true treasures, though, lie in the shadows. Not the ambivalent […]
Please, blog, may I have some more?Ahmed a guy the other day while I was cruising down the street in my ’64. Jacking tha freaks, clocking tha dough. Went to that park….Ha! I met Eazy-E once at the Fox Hills Mall. RIP. Gangsta Muggsy Bogues. Ok, enough silliness. There are 7.4 billion people in the world. So many different experiences and perspectives. I was watching the Korean version of “American Idol” with my mom and just kept thinking that there is so much talent in the world. Some never get discovered or are given the chance to showcase their skills for one reason or another. The same in the baseball world. How many kids get overlooked or just don’t have the resources to market themselves? Or how about just walking around the neighborhood? Do people still do that? Here in LA we just drive around cars and ride electric scooters. Anyways, one of the beautiful things about life is that on any random day, in any random place, you can run into a person, thing, or piece of information that has an impact on your day. Well, the other day, Ahmed a player that is 6.8% owned in ESPN leagues and is 79th overall and 7th for his position in home runs hit on the year. Nick Ahmed. Bear or Bull?
Please, blog, may I have some more? One Man’s Trash: Back, Back, Back, Back…
July 26, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 24 Commentsby: Son
Chris Berman was so awesome back in the day. The entertaining style and passion that he exuded made watching highlights so much more enjoyable. “Rumblin’, bumblin’, stumblin…..tick, tick tick, tick, tick tick….he could go all….the…way,” were staples for football. For baseball? Outside of the bevy of nicknames he coined for players, he’s best known for “back, back, back, back….gone!” for every home run hit. Now, it was cool for the first hundred times, but after the 10,000th one, I wanted to cut off my ears. Home Run Derby? Where I had to listen to it every few seconds on repeat for over an hour? I’d rather listen to my kids whine and cry in one ear, while the other would have a track of fingernails scratching a blackboard. In a nutshell, I wish it was back, back, back, back….gone for real. Now, it took me a long time to get over back to school sales and Baby Got Back, but I’m older and more mature now, so I’m open to things coming back. Which is a good thing because there are two players that will be coming back to baseball after being gone for a long time and could be worth your time.
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bear or Bull: How Much Wood Would a Grichuk Muck If…?
July 24, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 10 Commentsby: Son
I’ve always been fascinated with players breaking bats with their legs and head (freaking Bo Jackson). The strength it requires and the fact that their muscles are so freaking developed that they basically have an armor plate boggles the mind. Granted, this is coming from a guy that is the favorite sleeping place for his kids because the stomach is so plush and comfortable. It also makes me question why we still have wooden bats in the game. Don’t we have the technology to manufacture a bat that mimics a wooden one but doesn’t splinter or break? Save trees and save money. Seems like a win-win all around. The wooden bat companies must have some powerful lobbies. Anyways, players break bats when they get frustrated from striking out. Randal Grichuk has a career 29.2% strikeout rate, but doesn’t break bats. Imagine the damage he’d cause if he didn’t have the Zen-like composure or enlightenment of self-awareness? I am not Tony Robbins so I give no shits about “emotional mastery.” But I do care about the prospects of Grichuk being a fantasy viable asset.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Winking is the oddest of human expressions. Physically, it looks like a fusion of pain and happiness. You’re smiling, yet utterly frustrated because you can’t complete the process of connecting one eye to the mouth on the same side, which is what the purpose of a wink feels like. I know there are examples of winks where a person just closes one eye without the movement of the mouth, but that’s just a one-eyed blink. Cognitively, winks are intentional. One cannot be tricked or scared into winking. It is not a biological response mechanism. They have a purpose, yet are difficult to deduce because of the ambiguity. You know what’s not vague? Jesse Winker (34.1% owned – increase of 17.5%) is good at baseball. 13.8% strikeout rate and 15.1% walk rate! .294/.404/.429 slash with 7 home runs. Hard hit rate of 45.1% and 5.7% swinging strike rate! Now, the power isn’t spectacular (.135 ISO) and he does struggle a bit against LHP (.218 average), but he’s still only 24 years old, so the power may keep developing. What gives me the most optimism, though, is that he is not completely inept against lefties. The strikeout rate is higher than against righties, but it’s still only 18.8%, but the walk rate is a robust 17.4%, 3% higher than against righties. The approach seems solid and the BABIP is only .250 against lefties. It’s only a matter of time. TREASURE
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bear or Bull: Duffy the Something Something Slayer
July 18, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 24 Commentsby: Son
To slay evokes feelings of power and always denotes conquest. There is no better description of victory than, “he/she slayed their opponent.” Well, filleted also works, but that just gets me craving for sashimi. Anyways, one of the cute things about the tv show, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, outside of Buffy being cute, was the dichotomy of the feminine and masculine morphing into one. Or maybe it’s just sex sells. Whatever. What hasn’t been cute, though, are the many ways Danny Duffy has been…..a slayer of WHIP and FIP. Grey hates him. Should you?
Please, blog, may I have some more?I’ve always enjoyed good knock offs. Are those Mikes or Nikes? Why does the horse logo on your Polo shirt only have three legs? Some of my favorite were Dolce & Banana, Johnnie Worker Red Labial, Adidos, and Skerpie. In the baseball world, knock offs are prevalent as well. Sometimes intentional, as younger players try to pattern their games after another, but more often than not, players just end up profiling very similarly. Yulieski Gurriel (57.9% owned – increase of 12.7%) has always reminded me of Martin Prado – high batting average, high contact, limited power, and low strikeout hitter from the right side of the plate. For his career, Prado has a .290 batting average, 11.2% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, and .129 ISO. Gurriel has a career .296 batting average, 10.6% strikeout rate, 3.9% walk rate, and .162 ISO. Yes, Yuli has slightly more power, but that’s not saying much. So, why is Yuli one of the highest-added players in ESPN leagues over the past week? Since July 1st, he has a seven-game hitting streak and is batting .367/.444/.667 with 2 home runs. The ISO is .300 and strikeout rate is at 13.9%. Yuli has value, as he will hit for a high average. Just like Mikes can allow you to walk around, but try playing in a tournament with those bad boys and…..TRASH
Please, blog, may I have some more?Billy Hamilton of the Cincinnati Reds is in fact Billy R. Hamilton. I’m going to assume the R stands for Ray, as my internet sleuthing skills could not uncover this greatest of mysteries. Billy Ray Valentine is one of my favorite characters from one of my favorite movies: Trading Places. The similarities between the two Billy Rays are obvious. There was a time when both could not walk. Getting to third base? Couldn’t even get to first. Both are quick….witted for Valentine and twitched for Hamilton. Finally, luck has played a big part for both. Valentine got picked for the “experiment” while Hamilton is so fast that people just see a blur when looking at his batting stats. Since the beginning of July, though, Hamilton is batting .409, has stolen 6 bases, and has a 11.5% strikeout rate in 26 plate appearances. Will we get another Billy Ray happy ending?
Please, blog, may I have some more? One Man’s Trash: Is It Shoop or Scope for Jonathan Schoop?
July 5, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 6 Commentsby: Son
For the longest time, I thought Jonathan Schoop (59.3% owned – decrease of 8%) was pronounced like Salt N’ Pepa’s Shoop. It worked well when the home run numbers went from 15 in 2015…to 25 in 2016…and 32 in 2017. Jubilee from 1993. But then my world came crashing down when I discovered that it’s actually pronounced like Scope the mouthwash. If you ever come to LA, go eat at King Taco and use the red sauce. Then pour yourself a cup of Scope. Swish it around. Gargle it. Welcome to my world. Then 2018 Schoop appeared with the .198/.242/.344 slash. The only reasons I care about Schoop are because he had an ADP of 60.6 and he’s on my NFBC team, where I can’t drop his ass! Since I’m here, I might as well take a deeper dive. The walk and strikeout rates are normal. The ISO of .146 is well below his career average of .183. The BABIP is only .221, so regression should be in the works. Unfortunately, the line drive rate is way down, ground ball rate is up, and hard hit percentage is at a career-low 24.1%. He’s always had awful plate disciple, so those numbers remain terrible. The number that stands out to me, though, is the 4% barrel rate. Since 2015, Schoop had rates of 8.7, 6.7, and 7. I hate Schoop because he’s been terrible and his name is pronounced Scope, but I do think he gets hot at some point. That’s who he is as a player. He’s going to get his timing back, which will result in more barrels. He’s going to get more BABIP luck. He’s going to hit home runs. Most of the projection systems have him down for 13 home runs the rest of the season. I hate that I had to write those past sentences, but I endured swishing Scope in my mouth after an evening of King Taco. TREASURE
Please, blog, may I have some more? Bear Or Bull: Jose Peraza Hotter Than A Russian Sauna
July 3, 2018 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 8 Commentsby: Son
I first went to a sauna almost 20 years ago. And boy….what a first experience it was, as I got high as a kite. All those years smoking the wacky tabacky probably had something to do it. Anyways, my favorite thing to do at the sauna is to go in the super hot steam room, get baked for a while, then jump into the ice cold pool. Nothing cleanses the mind, body, and soul better. While I enjoy the Korean spas, nothing beats the Russian saunas, or banyas. You want heat? The Russkies definitely bring it…and them some. Which brings me to Jose Peraza. While he is not a Russkie (Peraza is Venezuelan), he has been as hot as a Russian banya over the past week: .324/.361/.735 with 3 home runs, 8 runs, 8 RBI, and 1 stolen base. Do we need to jump into the ice cold pool to cleanse our minds of him? Or can we continue to experience the heat?
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