I can’t say it feels like baseball season looking out my window at empty trees and snow-filled streets, but just a few states to the south, human beings are playing the real game (for practice).
One of my favorite traditions as a young fan was Peter Gammons profiling each team’s spring training focus points.
I loved the spittle and shake of his voice, the depth of his details, and especially how he always shot the segments in front of people playing catch, gloves popping symphonically as Gammons explained how Bill Pulsipher, Paul Wilson, and Jason Isringhausen were going to re-define the New York Mets.
It’s in that spirit that I begin our next prospect series—one that works in concert with Razzball’s Gammonsian team previews and one that involves a few nods to some non-prospects. Graduating from eligibility requirements doesn’t mean you’re a known quantity, nor that you’ve graduated to an everyday opportunity. Yesterday's failed prospects are often tomorrow's sleepers, so let's take a lap around the division looking for some fantasy profit.
Monthly Archives: February 2020
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Ambulance Chasers Preseason Part 3 – Bumps in the Road
February 22, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Injury Report | 7 Commentsby: Hammer
Spring Training camps are starting to break, and so are bones, ligaments, and the hopes and dreams of early fantasy drafters everywhere. We’ve got lots of updates on big names here as well as some minor nicks to watch as preseason workouts start to ramp up.
Mike Clevinger - News broke recently that Clevinger underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee and is on the shelf for 6-8 weeks. Meniscus injuries can be tricky and the treatment Clevinger opted for carries a longer up front rehab time, but less risk of injury moving forward. Clevinger’s did suffer another left leg injury last year (ankle sprain), and that didn’t show any effect on his velocity or numbers after his return. Even with a full recovery, this still knocks Clevinger down from the second round price that early drafters are paying for him. I’d start looking for him towards the later part of the top 100, where guys like Brandon Woodruff, Tyler Glasnow, and Jose Berrios are currently being drafted and hope that you get last year’s stats after a return in late May/early June.
Names to Watch in the 2020 MLB Draft
February 22, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 8 Commentsby: Will Scharnagl
While it seems so far away, before you know it the 2020 MLB Draft will be here. For us fantasy players, that means some first year player drafts will start happening as well (although you should really wait until the end of the season), and players who many know little about could soon become the future of your dynasty team. Many of you may also be participating in best ball drafts, where some of these guys have the potential to contribute to your team in the next 5 years. The point is, it's never too early to start looking into the players in the MLB Draft Class. I'm going to talk about a few names that stick out for me, and talk about their fantasy outlook, as well as where they could end up.
Razzball Fantasy Baseball Trade Analyzer – Now with $/Game!
February 21, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 26 Commentsby: Rudy Gamble
Our fantasy baseball trade analyzer just got a little better as you now have an option of valuing players by their full/rest of season value ($) OR their per game value ($/Game).
I think the $/Game metric is one of our more underrated/underused metrics so I am going to use this post as a primer on its value.
What is the difference between $ and $/Game?
The standard way of valuing fantasy players is based on each player's projected stats for the full season (or rest of season once the season has started). These stats are converted into a total value. We find auction $ value (based on $260 for all starting players with a 67/33 hit/pitch split) to be the most intuitive scale for displaying player values but other methods like summing z-scores provide similar benefits.
The downside of full/rest of season projections for comparing players is they reflect both projected performance AND playing time. This is fine when comparing players with similar playing time projections but creates issues if playing time is uneven because one of the players is projected for less playing time because of injury, minor league time, unsettled role, etc. A full season value for a player with discounted playing time essentially treats all that missing time as a zero. We know for DL stints or minor league time that we can plug in a replacement and, thus, the full season stats will undervalue the player with discounted playing time.
In last week's preview, we covered the Arizona Diamondbacks. For this week, we're deep-diving to the bottom of the NL West to find the Giants. Many naive San Fran fans will tell you that this is their year since it's an even year (2020) but that's a pretty stupid notion if you look at this team. The championship days are certainly a thing of the past and it's crazy just how far this team has fallen since then.
If you have any comments or questions, reach me here or on Twitter @Bartilottajoel
Also, if you want to see some other team previews or my bust picks, click here!
Is Ketel Marte Due for Regression? Don’t Be So Sure…
February 21, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 10 Commentsby: Jay
Ketel Marte had a very fine season in 2019. In fact, Ketel Marte had such a fine season that most of us have now priced in that this fineness probably won't happen again. Much like when I'm walking down the street and people are screaming at me the same thing. (I'm more of a capital "F" Fineness type of guy.) After hitting 329/389/592 with 32 home runs and a staggering .264 ISO, his high BABIP has been targeted as reason for regression. While this stat remains an easy crutch to make fast conclusions, if I could just make one important point: I have a higher Fineness factor than Ketel Marte. Most people, actually. But if I could make two important points; I'd also say that Ketel Marte's demise has been greatly exaggerated...
The 2020 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join!
Joey Gallo, 2020 Fantasy Schmohawk
February 21, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Overrated | 180 Commentsby: Grey
I get jazz handsy when I'm writing overrated posts. It's Razzball, after all. Razz is in the name, so it's only natural I want to mock players. That's what this whole shebang is built on, mocking. By the by, in retrospect, was Ricky Martin's hit song, She Bangs, really written to be Shebang, as in the whole shebang, and the record label changed it to make it sound more hetero? "Um, Ricky, I like that song, it's catchy, but maybe you could pause after 'she.'" Or maybe Martin was commenting on a hairstyle of a female acquaintance who had bangs. This was a 20-year riff in the making, huh? Any hoo! I enjoy mocking players; it's fun! With that said (time for Grey to turn this ship around), I'm getting no pleasure from mocking Joey Gallo. I like guys who hit 700-foot moonshots! Who doesn't? Sometimes I'll take a bottle of peach schnapps outside at night just so I can do my own moonshots. Sometimes I'll take my Derringer out there and just shoot at the moon. I love that shizz! The more moonshottie the better! Ricky Martin should do a song, Moons Hottie, putting in a hetero space between words! I'd download that shizz and hit the avenue with the top down, pumping up the jams! I love it! How'sever...Well...So, what can we expect from Joey Gallo for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
If I wrote up another old and boring player, Grey was going to make me pass out Razzball lollipops to all the senior citizens in Los Angeles. Young and exciting. Got it. Young and exciting. Scrolling through the NFBC ADP from January 1st to February 19th and......Got it. Keston Hiura of the Milwaukee Brewers. He's 23 years old. Check. But is he exciting? Well, he only hit 19 home runs and stole 9 bases in 348 plate appearances last season. And he's being drafted as the 43rd overall player right now. The peoples are definitely excited. He's Asian, so you know I'm excited, but will drafting him this season bring oohs and aahhs, or will it end up being a tragic flaw?
The first thing that jumped out to me when looking at Hiura was the 30.7% strikeout rate. I hate high strikeout players, but I've been coming around to them more recently because of the high upside many of them exhibit. That's evident with Hiura, as the ISO was .268, and he straight mashed the ball. According to the Statcast data from last season, Hiura had an exit velocity of 91.4 mph and a hard hit rate of 50%! The exit velocity was good for 25th in all of baseball, while the hard hit rate was 7th! No wonder peoples are going goo goo gaga, not for Coco Puffs, but for Keston Hiura.
As I dug deeper, though, I began to get concerned.
Bullpens On Parade: NL West
February 20, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Closers | 12 Commentsby: Roto-Wan
Much like the classic Minnesota Educational Computing Consortium (MECC) PC game, The Oregon Trail, we finish our bullpen parade out west. Apologies if the research in this post is light, I stayed up all night playing TOT on the Wayback Machine. Suck it deer, I shot so many of you I can't even carry all the meat. Much like the game, your journey to saves accumulation is a series of decisions fraught with peril. Do your best not to die of dysentery. In this example, Wade Davis is dysentery.
AL East | AL Central | AL West
NL East | NL Central | NL West
Points Leagues, Hello World
February 20, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 40 Commentsby: malamoney
Well holy shift Batman! This season marks my 19th year writing for Razzball. It's hard to think back to 2001 and my chance encounter with Grey in the mens room at Yankee Stadium. True story, one of the worst things that could happen to a sports fan happened to me. It was an extremely hot Sunday afternoon after a long Saturday night of celebrating my 55th birthday. I knew I shouldn't have eaten that bacon double cheese at 4am. Well sure enough after a few tall boy PBRs my stomach was twisting up something awful. I tried to hold it, but there was nothing I could do. I was going to have to drop Bill Cosby off at the pool at Yankee Stadium. I don't know about you, but I'd rather make out with the 300 pound, overweight (redundant) lady selling the Hebrew National hot dogs than put my bare ass anywhere near the toilet seat in a public bathroom at a ballpark. Had it been pregame perhaps it might not have been so bad (somewhat freshly cleaned), but we're talking about the 5th inning here. I've learned a lot in my many years on this planet and one of them is that human beings are beyond vile and have absolutely terrible aim when going to the bathroom. How is it possible that so much human waste winds up outside of the bowl? Often I believe that it's just got to be on purpose. Well there I was, sitting on about fourteen layers of toilet paper eating a cheesesteak. In case you're wondering I just didn't have the strength to hover, and about the cheesesteak, that's a story for another day. Get in and get out I said to myself. I was just about done when my stall door was kicked open, nearly off its hinges. One might have thought Daniel LaRusso was practicing his crane kick. The ironic thing was a simple push would have done the job as, lost in all of the shuffle, I neglected to lock the stall door. There, standing in front of me, was a middle-aged dude wearing a "SAGNOF" shirt who took one look at me and my cheesesteak and asked if I'd be interested in writing points league posts for his up and coming fantasy baseball website. I agreed, we did NOT shake hands and that marked the beginning of a my "professional" writing career. Since then I have slowly worked my way up the company ranks and have settled in as the points league guy. My how far I have come. Lastly, if you believe a word of that story I've got a league I'd like you to join. Please be sure to provide your contact information in the comments section.
The 2020 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join!
Alex Bregman, 2020 Fantasy Schmohawk
February 20, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Overrated | 248 Commentsby: Grey
This isn't about the Cheaty Cheaty Bang Bang scandal. I'm not here to talk about the Fiers Festival. We're not going to rehash the Banghazi hashtag. You have a Big Bang Theory? Great, so do I. Wanna hear it after saying I'm not going to talk about it? Fine! Twist my arm! The Asterisks cheated; it's well-documented. You can't watch a home game of the Asterisks without it sounding like the PA speaker is accidentally on while someone nearby hammers together a piece of Ikea furniture without the proper instructions. "Where does this screw go? Hmm...eff it, I'm just gonna bang it together." That's what it sounded like. I made less racket drunk at 2 AM in college. There's quieter trash cans in the dead of winter filled with a family of raccoons. There's a ton of evidence. Irrefutable evidence, and they were convicted of cheating by Our Commissioner Manfred, who almost requested the return of a piece of metal. Their GM and manager fell on the swords. Were they the main ones to blame? Haha, my dude, the players are the ones that cheated. I've seen video evidence of Alex Bregman at the plate while Bang A Gong (Get It On) played in the background. So, he was right there in the middle of Bang-gate. Should he have apologized? I think so, but they were busted already, so it's not like he's saying something people don't know. It's the way of celebrities (athletes and otherwise) to not apologize unless it's through a spokesperson. Never the hoo! None of this matters for fantasy or it all matters. We won't know until the 2020 season concludes. We'd be guessing on that. The easy narrative for Bang-gate is: Bregman was good on the road, so he's fine. That's dismissive of what it is actually going on here. I was saying you should avoid Alex Bregman before any ruling came down about cheating. So, what makes Alex Bregman overrated for 2020 fantasy baseball?
Top 20 Relief Pitching Prospects for 2020 Fantasy Baseball
February 19, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 36 Commentsby: The Itch
Which position would you say has gained the most value over the past decade?
In MLB? In fantasy?
Maybe it’s shortstop. 2020 might be the best shortstop season of all time, whatever that means.
And that’s pre Wander.
But this winter saw Emmanuel Clase traded for Corey Kluber. I know Delinosaur Jr. is feeling the pain of everyone there, too, and the old Klubot has been in the shop for a hot minute, but to say this trade made waves is an understatement.
The conversation began in alarmist, anti-ownership fashion and ended in hushed admiration of Clase’s cutter and consideration of the relative values of their contracts and remaining innings, especially in the context of a team with a pitching surplus such as Cleveland’s.
Felt like a signpost to me.
As did Tampa Bay’s trade of top 50 echo chamber prospect Jesus Sanchez for erstwhile bartender Nick Anderson.
As have the contracts dolled out every off-season, even in the miserly winters of 2017-18, when bullpen pitchers were signed early in the cycle for near-record middle-relief contracts.
I might be kicking the horse a bit at this point when all I really want to do is share my work-intensive relief prospect rankings. More and more leagues are incorporating holds, either as its own category or a combination category with saves. Given the dominance of hot relievers, all these guys gain a lot of value in saves+holds leagues, where their barrier to helping you in that category is all but erased. In the dynasty game, they can be swapped in and out of your minor leagues to expand your active roster and suppress your ratios while snagging some strikeouts and the occasional win.
Without further ado because we’ve had plenty of ado because hey I worked on this one all winter, the following humans are my top 20 relief prospects for 2020.
