Not sure if I've ever liked Marcus Stroman before for fantasy baseball. As a human, he seems like a good dude. I wouldn't mind hanging out with him because we're both 28 years old, five-foot seven-inch men and we could make fun of Jose Altuve's shortness for hours. "Hahahahaha, he's only five feet and six inches? That is hilarious! Yo, Altuve, wait here while we go on the Mad Hatter Tea Cups ride without you!" Then Stroman would howl, "Yo, Altuve, want help getting cereal down from the top shelf?" Then I would high-five the crap out of Stroman, barely out of reach of Altuve's high-five. Oh, milord, Stroman and I would have so many good times! Unfortch, his lack of strikeouts has always made me nonplussed (informal North American definition) and I've either actively ignored him or disliked him for fantasy. Well, those days are over for us two seriously-close-to-average-height millennial men. (By the way, I'm not 28 years old or five-foot-seven, so stop believing everything you read here or on Facebook!) Last year Marcus Stroman went 10-13/3.22/1.31/159 in 184 1/3 IP. What's that, a 7.8 K/9? Oh, man, that is seriously bleh, did I get caught up in how much we had in common and forget how much we had that separated us? Hmm, I hope not. So, what can we expect from Marcus Stroman for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
See all of today’s starting lineups
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ATH | ATL | BAL | CHW | CIN | HOU | LAD | MIN | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | ARI | BOS | CHC | CLE | COL | DET | KC | LAA | MIA | MIL | NYM | NYY | OAK | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL |
Dinelson Lamet returned from Tommy John surgery last year better than Tommy John returned from his own surgery, and he invented the stupid surgery after a night out with the guys. Here's a conversation with Bill Russell of the 1976 Dodgers, and Tommy John:
"Hey, are you the same Bill Russell that plays basketball?"
"Stop asking me that. You know I'm not."
"I think I'm blind from Me Surgery."
"You're not blind and stop calling it 'Me surgery.'"
"It's Tommy John surgery and I'm Tommy John, so to me it's Me Surgery, and you don't know if it made me blind because it's my surgery."
"I know it didn't make you blind because you drove us to this bar!"
"One day everyone will call it Tommy John surgery."
"I hate you."
And that's how Bill Russell of the 1976 Dodgers began calling UCL reconstruction surgery, 'Tommy John Is A Pain In The Ass surgery.' So, what can we expect from Dinelson Lamet for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Someone wins the off-season every winter. The baseball calendar invites us to imagine how a power bat like Edwin Encarnacion and a high OBP catcher like Yasmani Grandal will impact a lineup. It’s math we can do more easily than we can measure the addition of a great left tackle to a football team. We can plug Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez into Chicago’s rotation and add up their wins above replacement. It’s all very earnest and joyful and helps us push through the expanding darkness.
Course, someone wins summer in football, too, but it feels very different. Football has no WAR, ironically enough, and while I think that’s at least as flawed a statistic as batting average, WAR is currently treated with reverence due to the shorthand evaluative powers it grants the baseball world.
While it’s efficacy can be debated, WAR dominates our world, and there can be no doubt the White Sox have gone to WAR this winter. The people are singing songs of freedom and glory—not just for these winter wins but also for the prospect waterfall coming this Spring.
And who doesn’t love to see a slow-cooked recipe come together, especially during the holiday season?
Last week, I posted an article about
Three Prospects Poised to Skyrocket in 2020. While I didn't realize it at the time, all three of those guys are on NL teams, so it definitely wasn't the most helpful for guys in AL-Only leagues. For that reason, this week I'm going to be covering three guys from AL teams who are going to breakout big time in 2020.
If you notice that the six prospects I've covered over these past two articles are all position players, that's not by accident. You may have seen the acronym "TINSTAAPP" around the baseball world before, meaning “There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect”. While it's a bit of an oversimplification, the reasoning behind it is that pitching prospects are significantly more risky than their position-player counterparts, so you're more likely to get value out of a hitter than a pitcher. Additionally, the adjustment curve for pitchers in the majors is a bit steeper, and few pitching prospects contribute at a high level immediately. Many prospects struggle massively in their debuts (i.e. Berrios), and some even take a few years (i.e. Giolito, Glasnow) before really figuring it out (By the way if you're looking for a pitcher like Berrios who struggled in their debut, I highly recommend picking up Mitch Keller.). Because of this, many former top prospects will end up hitting the waiver wire in even deep dynasty leagues, so I think you should invest in position players way more, and for that reason I'm focusing mainly on hitters.
I believe I wrote a Brandon Woodruff sleeper post last year, or maybe I just told everyone to draft him and ranked him way higher than everyone else. Either way, I win. I will be sanctioning a steel worker to fashion me a giant "I knew Brandon Woodruff was good before everyone else" trophy in the shape of a giant cup, which I will fill with Hong Kong milk tea and boba. For the clubhouse celebration, I will put on goggles, insert a giant metal boba straw into my mouth and spray myself in the face with milk tea and boba while slurping up...The Fallen Boba Soldiers. What a terrific clubhouse celebration I'm having in my kitchen that I've covered with a plastic tarp so Cougs doesn't yell at me. I've reached the pinnacle of the fantasy baseball industry! Or I'm having a fever dream. Tomato-tomato-said-with-a-different-emphasis. Last year Brandon Woodruff went 11-3/3.62/1.14/143 in 121 2/3 IP, which was essentially a top ten starter with how great pitching was last year. Okay, I kid. Kinda. But if he didn't miss two months with an oblique injury, we might not even be here because Woodruff would've been a top ten starter. Thank you, oblique! Whatever the hell it/you is/are. Not only do I not know an oblique's pronoun, I also don't know if it's singular or plural. So, what can we expect from Brandon Woodruff for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
Hyun-Jin Ryu signed with the Jays. That's...interesting. *scrambling to see Ryu's interleague ERA vs. AL teams* 3.84 ERA in 86 2/3 IP with a 8.8 K/9 and this is still too small a sample. Plus, as I always say, you can't just say a guy's away stats are what he'd now do when he's calling a place home. Also, what is going on with Ryu's early draft price? Maybe it’s still early for ADP and I shouldn’t assign any real truth to where guys are going, but like Hugh Jackman’s marriage to his grandmother, it’s very real how late Ryu’s been going so far this year. I get it, I get it, I GET IT! He’s not a 1-something ERA pitcher, so y’all are compensating for that, but like me with my Happy Socks in my pants, you’re overcompensating. He didn’t just have a Cy Young-type year last year. He had a 1.97 ERA in 2018, too. In six seasons, his career ERA is 2.98. Okay, fine, ERA is stupid. He has a 1.01 WHIP two years in a row. WHIP’s stupid too? Fine, but these are two of the categories you’re hoping to get from your starters. Wins are just stupid stupid. Nothing can be figured from those. So, that leaves us with Ks. He has a 8 K/9 and a 1.2 BB/9, so, you got it, you’ve figured out a reason to not absolutely love Ryu. He’s merely a 2.75/1.01/150 guy. Shucks, what a shame. For penance, I will dye my skin whiter and cat-o-nine-tails my back like a villain in a Dan Brown book. Even if you think the AL could be less kind for Ryu, how much worse will he be from a 2.75/1.01 ratio guy? Fifty points on ERA? Sixty? Five points on WHIP? Ten? He suddenly won't have one of the best walk rates in baseball? I'm going to be conservative with his projections and they still look great. For 2020, I'll give Ryu projections of 13-6/3.32/1.09/153 in 167 IP. Anyway, here's what else I saw this offseason for 2020 fantasy baseball:
Just days after the Toronto Blue Jays inked Hyun-Jin Ryu, we meet as scheduled many months ago to discuss their minor league system. The fates are aligned this Holiday season.
And it’s pretty good--this system--considering what it graduated to the big leagues last year.
Is it Christmas-morning good?
Like gathering around the prospect fire with your favorite baseball humans good?
Maybe not, but it’s good enough in pitching that help should be coming soon enough to pair with the promising young hitters Toronto’s assembled. Don’t sleep on Tellez and Teoscar, by the way. They aren’t exactly what you’re hoping to find under the tree, sure, but they’re solid stocking stuffers within reach of 30 home runs in 2020.
On Dancer! On Prancer! On–Oh, I didn’t hear you come in. Welcome, reader! Grab some egg nog and brandy it up to the fire. You look festive. I love that Rudolph tongue ring. That’s the great thing about Christmas, no matter what your interpretation is, it’s all about commercialism. That’s unless you light the Munenori Kawasaki. The
2020 fantasy baseball rankings are not far away. Right now, January Grey is throwing darts at a board to figure out where to rank Shohei Ohtani, the hitter vs. Shohei Ohtani, the pitcher. Maybe I should use two dart boards. Hmm...In the meantime, let’s look at the players who have multiple position eligibility for this upcoming 2020 fantasy baseball season. I did this list of multi-position eligible players because I figured it would help for your 2020 fantasy baseball drafts. I’m a giver, snitches! Happy Holidays! I only listed players that have multiple position eligibility of five games or more started outside of their primary position. Not four games at a position, not three, definitely not two. Five games started. If they played eight games somewhere but only started one, they are not listed. 5, the Road Runner of numbers. So this should cover Yahoo, ESPN, CBS, et al (not the Israeli airline). Players with multiple position eligibility are listed once alphabetically under their primary position. Games played are in parenthesis. One big take away is Jonathan Villar started in, like, 200 games. That can't be right. Oh, I know, they're listed if they had 5 or more games started, but I noted games played in parenthesis, so Villar must've switched positions three times per game or played two positions at once because the Orioles only had seven fielders plus a pitcher. Don't know, don't care. Players are listed by Games Started, and Games Played are noted. It's not confusing at all! This is the only time a year I do anything alphabetically, so I might’ve confused some letters. Is G or H first? Who knows, and, better yet, who cares! Wow, someone’s got the Grinchies, must be the spiked egg nog talking. Anyway, here’s all the players with multiple position eligibility for the 2020 fantasy baseball season and the positions they are eligible at:
You ever go so far into the weeds on the internet you forget what you're even looking for, and, five hours later, you're like, "How did Tommy Edman lead me to researching why a group of crows is called a murder?" No? Well, it happened to me. By the way, I'm interested in joining a Patreon for a true crime podcast about murder by a murder of crows. Hit me up if you know any. So, after purchasing on eBay a large stuffed crow that had a recorder hidden in its throat that played Snoop Dogg's Murder Was the Case, I decided I didn't want any more weak exit velocity guys. I perused the bottom 50 for exit velocity for 2018 to see if any of these guys did better in 2019. Yes, but the odds were not in their favor. Kolten Wong, Kevin Kiermaier and Jarrod Dyson were about it. You need to have speed to have a chance. This list would've scared me off David Fletcher last year, since he doesn't have any real speed. Why did I even go down this rabbit hole? Tommy Edman's 87.1 MPH exit velocity scared me, and how it was 216th overall in MLB. It's not in the bottom 50 though! So, 'natch! In fact, mucho 'natches! All dem natches! Edman is making some weak contact though, so let's see why I still like him. Anyway, what can we expect from Tommy Edman for 2020 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?
I doubt there’s any good way to explore this, but this week I found myself wondering if this year’s rays prospect list might be the fastest top 10 in baseball history or at least in the last several years. Perhaps the turf-burning Cardinals and Royals of the 80’s could measure up in parts, but they wouldn’t have three 80 runners and a Wander, I think.
Fantasy baseball players love the Tampa Bay Rays to some extent already, I think, but they should probably just lean in and pick up all the profit. Avisail Garcia was a great example of this last year. As were Emilio Pagan and Nick Anderson and Tyler Glasnow and Austin Meadows. And that’s all just last season. Oh, Brandon Lowe, too, though he was from within.
This year it’s Brendan McKay and Yoshitomo Tsutsugo; Kevin Padlo and Joe Ryan; Josh Lowe, Colin Poche and Brent Honeywell Jr.
Also Hunter Renfroe.
Because crazier things have happened.
Presumably.
Jesus Aguilar did not drink the lazarus water in 2019, so it’s not like Tampa Bay bats a thousand, but the Midas touch element here is real. Consider Nick Solak. Traded for Peter Fairbanks. When a prospect leaves Tampa, it’s because there’s no room at the inn, and they see an angle they want to play now. Our move is to realize their bar is incredibly high, so when they “sour” on a prospect enough to move him, it means a little less than it might in other smart organizations. Solak is still probably a value, depending on how you acquire him, and Fairbanks should be tracked in leagues where his profile (high K reliever) matters.
I veered off the path there. Suffices to say you could do worse in dynasty leagues than focusing on the organizations that are best at this particular game of finding talented players and helping them maximize their abilities. Or even just using it as a tiebreak when looking at two players of similar appeal. Estanli Castillo and Alberto Figueroa won’t make many lists this off-season, but I will be checking in on throughout the season because they’re with Tampa. I will check their game logs every few weeks or so just in case Castillo begins a noisy home run binge or Figueroa starts swiping bases in bunches. I just don’t want to be late to a Tampa party because a Tampa party rarely stops.
Since we last provided you with a podcast, fantasy football has come and gone, the Astros became synonymous with trash cans in a variety of ways, and Gerrit Cole joined the Yankees and got all of the money. It's been a wild, frustrating, and exciting few months depending upon your allegiances to team or player. It all culminated in a blockbuster filled Winter Meetings as over $800 million in contracts were handed out. Grey and I team up once again for the annual Winter Meetings wrap-up, an update as we head into the end of the calendar year and the dawn of the 2020 Fantasy Baseball season. We talk Corey Kluber, Gerrit Cole, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Padres trades and so much more. Tune in for a little Holiday scented hot stove talk.
One of my favorite parts of dynasty leagues is picking out the crop of prospects who I think will skyrocket in value in 2019. One of my big picks for 2019 was Julio Rodriguez, saying that he’d be a top 20 prospect by year's end in an article I wrote at the beginning of the season. For people who grabbed Rodriguez in their FYPD, or early on in the season, a player who was fairly irrelevant in terms of fantasy value suddenly became one of their best assets, either for trades or just to keep for the future. Predicting MLB breakouts and making good trades are both important parts of playing dynasty, but if you really want to dominate your fellow league members, picking up the right prospects can make a massive difference. If you really want to get a jump in your dynasty leagues, I highly recommend picking up these three players, who you likely won’t find on many top 100 lists, but you certainly will next year. And here's Prospect Itch's
top 100 fantasy baseball prospects, if you're into that sorta thing.
