Year after year, Kole Calhoun (3-5% FAAB) continues to be an excellent replacement in fantasy leagues. This week we witnessed a significant loss in Aaron Judge, and necessary moves must occur to recreate some of that stat-line. With 9 HR in July alone, Calhoun could be one of the better power producers available for the rest of the season. All of the Statcast data suggests that his year has been extremely unlucky. His overall Barrel% is higher than ever, the BABIP is ready to jump back up, and the Hard Hit% is on par with his career rate. If your team is losing outfielders, pay a little bit extra to get the consistency that Calhoun brings to the table. July was a massive month for him, look for that to continue as his numbers should continue to bounce back more towards the norm.
Monthly Archives: July 2018
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We're getting to the point in the summer known as the dog days. People a little too comfortable with their surroundings, don't pay as much attention, think everything's good and hey let's listen to Sugar Ray...frankly, act like the knights of summer. But Cat Stark is right, winter is coming, and it's known as your DFS entry on Draft today. Don't get cute with someone like J.A. Happ, who's in the newest of all new situations, the Yankees' starting rotation, being asked to bring hope when Judge is out and the Yanks are staring at the play-in game. Or the most Texas name of all time, Lance McCullers, facing a Texas team who hits him to a .310 batting average and .865 OPS. Corey Kluber is the man. After his post-All Star game hiccup, he's still carrying a 12-6 record with a 2.88 ERA and .95 WHIP. He's facing Detroit, whose best players are collecting checks sitting by the rehab pool. Let the Klubinator loose and dominate like the Night King (for the love of R'hllor, George, finish the book!). Now let’s look at a few more early-, middle- and late-round picks for your Draft…drafts!
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Doesn’t it feel as though every year, a college hitter is taken near the top of the draft and immediately takes to the lower levels like a fish to water? In the grand tradition of recency bias, Nick Madrigal has emerged as our early favorite for the superlative “first to the majors”. Despite going 0-for-5 Saturday night, he’s hitting .389/.390/.472 with 2 steals through 10 games at Low-A Kannapolis. Here’s the remarkable thing, across 51 plate appearances between the AZL and Sally League he’s yet to strikeout. Zero. He hasn’t walked a ton, drawing a free pass just twice, and he hasn’t shown a ton of power either, he’s yet to homer in the 15 games he played. Instead knocking just two doubles. Hopefully due to the quality of contact he can fall into a dozen plus homers in his prime years. So I suppose that begs the question, is it a “better in real life” profile? There’s a good chance that’s the case, he could be a .285 hitter with 10-14 homers and a dozen steals. That’s a solid player, but it’s not what you’re looking for at the top of your first year player draft. That however is worst case scenario in my opinion. The ceiling looks like this; the power develops into a 17-20 homer number, with a .300+ batting average, and 15 or so steals. He scores a ton of runs, your team loves it, and everybody gets ice cream. That’s not a pipe dream to wish on either, this kid’s hit tool is a legit 70. That alone should give him a pretty good shot at being a top of the order, run producing type of player. I’m a big fan of Madrigal, and believe in the upside, but I’d be remiss to not mention the downside. Here’s some other players of note in MiLB.
Two Startapalooza, Week 18: Drinking Bailey’s Kool-Aid From A Shoe
July 28, 2018 | Two Start Starters | 5 Commentsby: Dokken
I'm happy to bring you another fanciful week of double dippers here in the wide world of stitchesball. It's a little bit of a lighter week after a busy week of post All-Star Break action, yet this is another one of the friendliest streaming slates of the season. I said that last week too and I really hope I'm not accidentally turning into an optimist. Tiers 1 and 2 are just about as shallow as you can get, with a lot of mid-level starters getting two turns this time out. Tier 2 is easily the grossest it's been all season. I didn't even want to put C-Mart in there, but I felt obligated to at least fill out three names in Tier 2. Tier 3 is where the party's at this week, baby. They rented an elephant and a clown for the week and gave them both ecstasy so lord knows what's gonna happen next. You could argue that David Price could have been elevated to Tier 2, but he's got the Yankees and he gets pounded by them pretty consistently. Tyler Skaggs was borderline too, but a date with Cleveland bumped him down. Tyler Anderson should keep the good times rolling with a pair of decent matchups. Tier 4 is a bit more of a hodgepodge, with guys like Ervin Santana who I am not completely sure what to do with. His fastball velocity is down a whopping three MPH from last year, which is terrifying, but he also gets the Royals in his second start. I'm probably playing it safe and staying away from him for now. Tanner Roark was ridiculously good in his last start, reversing the trend from his previous umpteen starts of being ridiculously bad. I'm not buying it, and he's still in Tier 5. Honestly, a lot of Tier 5 doesn't even look that bad this week. Someone punch me in the nuts, I need my pessimism back.
Moose to Milwaukee to Mash at Miller
July 28, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 13 Commentsby: Dan Pants
Say cheese! [player]Mike Moustakas[/player] was traded to the Milwaukee Brewers for outfielder and top prospect [player]Brett Phillips[/player] along with right handed pitcher [player]Jorge Lopez[/player] in a move that tells the baseball world that the Brewers really think they're in this thing. Isn't that adorable? Mil-ee-wauk-kay is Algonquin for “the good land,” and this is very good news for Moustakas and his owners if they're not already in last place as Mike goes to one of the most hitter friendly ballparks for lefties in the entire league. Mike was slashing .249/.309/.468 with 46 runs, 20 home runs, 3 stolen bases and 62 RBIs through the first 98 games and I think it's more than reasonable to expect he can improve upon these stats in Wisconsin. He's received a huge upgrade not just to his home park but also a much better supporting line up (reuniting with former teammate Lorenzo Cain) and hitting around the likes of Ryan Braun, Christian Yelich and Travis Shaw (who will mostly likely move over to play second base). His counting stats should improve along with the power numbers and it's all around just a grand ol' time to own the Moose. Going the other way, highly touted prospect Brett Phillips was slashing .240/.331/.411 with 6 dingers, 25 RBI and 11 stolen bases at AAA and should be a regular in the Kansas City outfield going forward. He's worth a speculative add in deep leagues based on his upside and should play every day. Jorge Lopez was serviceable out of the Brewers pen in 19.2 IP this season posting a 2.75 ERA, 1.48 WHIP and 15/13 K/BB. Meh is right but he's a bullpen arm whose name we could hear a lot more of soon if/when Wily Peralta eventually pitches his way out of the closing gig. Overall, seems like a solid trade for both teams and unlike most of these dreaded deadline deals, this trade has more helpful implications for fantasy owners than usual. No one's losing a closer or a starter or moving to an impossible division or ball park. This trade is basically a win for all of us involved, so let's hear it for the new Milwaukee Moose!
Here's what else I saw Friday night in fantasy baseball:
True confession: I can't cope with trade deadline season. I find it a terrifying time to be 1) a baseball fan (of a team that is in sell mode [cough Blue Jays cough]) and 2) a baseball writer: 1) Because favorite players can be suddenly whisked off to dreaded rivals (I’m looking at you, brand-new-Yankee JA Happ) and 2) because things turn on a dime. For example, when I first started putting this post together, I was all "start Astro X against Cole Hamels!" Now...nope. So when you're assembling your lineup for FantasyDraft today, I’ll give you the same caveat I give for weather: double-check your lineups before they lock. Anyway! Let’s talk about things that are hopefully more predictable: it’s a Coors day, so hitters gonna hit! (Right? Dear God, please give me something to hold on to in this crazy world.) Of course you'll pay up for Rockies (Nolan Arenado, $10,400; Charlie Blackmon, $9,900; Trevor Story, $10,300) and A's bats (Khris Davis, $11,100; Marcus Semien, $9,300), but it may be worth it. Also, Atlanta, second best in the league versus LHP, are seeing lefty Alex Wood today. Pitching options are tougher, but let's see what we can do with them, after the jump.
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Prospect Podcast: Trade Deadline Prospect Updates
July 28, 2018 | Prospect Podcast, Razzball Podcast | 26 Commentsby: Geoff
Lance and Ralph are at the games the last few weeks so you don't have to be! Might as well lead the lede with a little tag line action, no? The thing is, it's true! Over the last few weeks Lance and myself have taken in the best the Eastern League, Midwest League, and Cape Cod League have had to offer, while keeping an eye on all the talented minor leaguers changing squads. This week we start the show off with callups of note, before jumping right into our opinions on some of the prospects that are changing hands pre-trade deadline. We talk Dillon Tate, Forrest Wall, Chad Spanberger, and others, before jumping into our weekly 5 by 5, where we run through ten players of note. Lots of info, but jammed packed into an hour and 10 minutes. As always head over to Rotowear.com and use our promo-code SAGNOF to get 20% off the top t-shirts in the fantasy sports game. It's the latest episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast:
[brid autoplay="true" video="274494" player="10951" title="Fantasy Baseball Buy Sell Hold Week 18"]
Michael Conforto is a Buy. A Mets hitter. Long pause. Hearing Dominick the Donkey on the radio. Realizing that pause was until Christmas. "Hey, chingedy ching, hee haw, hee haw. It's Conforto, the fantasy baseball Buy donkey. The Italian Christmas Fantasy Baseball Buy Donkey. He plays for the Mets and you know what this means? The label on the inside of his uni says they're made in Queens." In the beginning of the season, Conforto looked like he was working with three-quarters of his ability. So, who's he, Confor? Julius Caesar never came, saw and Confor'd, right? The lawyers didn't Confor with the judge before sentencing Conforto to three months of terrible hitting. Confor the lousy hitting, stay for the fear of success? Yes, but no. What I think we're going to hear this offseason is Conforto is going to say the first few months of the season, his shoulder was still bothering him, but, by the 2nd half, that started to ease. On our last 7 day Player Rater, Conforto is top 15, and could be in store for a solid 2nd half if his injury is finally healed. Now get the Italian Christmas Fantasy Baseball Buy Donkey! Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
Closer Rankings: Role With The Changes
July 27, 2018 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 13 Commentsby: Smokey
The trading deadline is days away and the roles they are a changing. In comes one out goes the other. Closers losing value left and right while the waiver wire warriors of the world are circling like buzzards for the SAGNOF scrap heaps. The latest in the foray of closers to go is Joakim Soria, now a Brewer. The White Sox closer role is likely to go to Jace Fry or Juan Minaya. Not an awesome situation or a good predicament to be in, but a closer is a closer. The SAGNOF model should be: "Leave no good save behind". Similarly, the Orioles traded Zach Britton to the Evil Empire, Brad Brach assumes the role there for the time being or until he gets traded for assets that the Orioles can ruin. The trade winds and finalized deals don't help the set-up man either, as key components to the back-end game have been replaced by acquired talent. This is life for the ever building bullpen foundation of playoff contending teams. Build from the back, because the girth of talent that exists in the starters just isn't there. So if you are currently zonked from losing a closer that no longer has a professional job of closing, it is time to speculate where speculating looks speculative. Look at guys on the secondary for teams that are rumored to be wheelin' and dealin'. The Rangers, Nationals, Twins, Rays, Tigers, and to a lesser degree maybe the Cardinals... Be ahead of the curve instead of being caught looking at Uncle Charlie. Closer news is fluid this time of year, and by the time this gets posted there could be 2-3 more trades that make me look even dumber than I already do. More after the jump, with success stories and diminishing returns. Cheers!
Happy Friday everybody! We have a massive 15 games slate on FanDuel, which includes the works. Coors, multiple aces, and huge implied team totals, so let's see if we can fit it all in! Let us begin our Friday by raising a glass for the 2nd greatest 90s lip-syncers (Milli Vanilli is the GOAT, don't DM me) out there, C&C Music Factory, that made the greatest proclamation of all time, "Everybody Dance Now"!!! CC Sabathia comes in at $7,800 and faces the Royals, who have been awful vs LHPs. Sabathia is certainly not a sexy play on a day that has Sale, Scherzer, and Kershaw, but the wily veteran should be a safe play and is cheap enough that you'll be able to fit in some game changing bats. Sabathia has been great at limiting hard contact this year and as a -280 favorite according to Vegas, he should be in line for a really nice day. Let's take a look at some of my other favorite plays for the day.
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J.A. Happ might've realized he wasn't staying with the Jays much longer when guys in the front office kept asking him if he liked the team's new jersey and it was the same jersey he had been wearing but a small man with a goatee, who said he worked as Peter Dinklage's stunt double for parts of season 2 and 3 of GOT, was standing with his hand over the 'Ja' of Jays. Happ tried to understand, "Do I like the Blue Ys?" The front office exec tried to lead him to the answer, "If there was no," motioning to Dinklage's stunt double's hand covering the 'Ja,' "In the Jays, would that be okay with you?" Rather than the low-rent game of charades, they just traded him to the Yankees. Happ should be happy to be out of Canada, we have a burgeoning coal economy. No idea what Happ will do on the Yankees, but what he SHOULD (caps for emphasis, not due to a sticky keyboard) is be great. His 10.3 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and 3.63 xFIP makes him easily the 2nd best pitcher on the Yankees and around that of a top 30 starter. Also, the AL East is like this: J.A. Happ mimes wiping dandruff off his shoulder. Nothing to it, kid! Of course, it's been like this all year and he still has a 4.18 ERA, so 'should' and 'would' can have a baby and it will still be, 'who knows?' Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Minor League Update: Adonis Has Tiger’s Blood
July 26, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 19 Commentsby: Geoff
Every so often, actually, this is baseball, so, all the time, we are blessed with an 80 grade name. One birthed from flames, and ready to provide Rudy Gamble with endless puns. One such name is the Phillies right-hander Adonis Medina's. The athletic right-hander ranked 107th overall in my recent Top 500, and was the 25th overall pitcher. Don't forget I faded pitching in this year's ranks. The subject of trade rumors over the All-Star break, while the Phillies were still in the Manny Machado hunt, Medina has been up and down this season. Though a quick glance at his 64% LOB%, and the fact that 26 of his 39 runs allowed have come in just 4 starts, and it's easy to see his ERA is quite deceiving. In fact, in ten of those sixteen starts Medina has gone 5 or more and allowed 2 or less runs. But it's not the numbers that should sell you on Medina, it's the stuff. Blessed with three above-average to plus pitches, Medina has the ability to carve-up a lineup with very little use of his mid-90s fastball, and that's exactly what Medina did on Saturday night. Prospector in arms Jason Woodell was in the building, and tweeted some seriously tantalizing updates on Medina's game. He was working 93-95 on the fastball, before abandoning it the third time through the order to dice up the Fire Frogs (Braves A+) lineup with his low 80s slider, and mid-high 80s changeup. Jason has given Medina 60s on all three pitches. This combination of stuff, and feel for multiple above average to plus pitches gives Medina the ability to thrive one day at the big league level. If I was to re-rank my top 500 today, I'd likely bump Medina into the top 20 starters. Here's some of Jason's excellent video work, that really captures how talented Medina is.
103 seconds of absolute filth from #Phillies RHP prospect Adonis Medina. FB 93-95 - elevates and runs up and in SL 80-81 - two plane tilt CH 88 - plus arm action - FIRM ???? Worked mainly SL/CH combo 3rd time through the order UN-?ing Touchable! pic.twitter.com/Dg5PvqTWXL
— Jason Woodell (@JasonAtTheGame) July 22, 2018
