Scatter brained, unfocused, all over the place, just a few terms you might use to describe this hodge-podge of prospect analysis I bring to you here on this the lord's day. We're going to break this into three parts, first part will be a little analysis of the recent transactions involving Yulieski Gourriel and Anderson Espinoza, then we'll jump into some updates on 2016 draft picks, now that they're roughly a month into their professional careers, and we'll close with some updates on international signings. If you're looking for more than this I suggest you seek wisdom from those smarter than I. Yes, those people exist, roughly 79% of you reading this fall into that category in fact.
Monthly Archives: July 2016
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I was watching the PCL-International League All-Star game (Psyche! You thought it was going to be about the MLB All Stars; well it is, we’ll get there and Psych was an underrated great show) and took note of a few older All Stars.
1). Casey McGehee still plays! And still spells his last name weird. He was fantasy relevant for a short time in Milwaukee and this season in the PCL he’s got five homers and an OPS of .837 at AAA(and little chance of getting a call-up, but shout out to him anyway).
2). Jesus Montero was also around (hitting 11 homers with an .810 OPS in AAA). Fun fact. He’s got a brother named Jesus Montero. Another fun fact, too many 1B in Toronto in front of him for now, but it is Edwin splitting time at DH and Justin Smoak. So keep an ear to the ground (don’t do that, the ground is dirty) and maybe Jesus rises again (yep, should’ve seen that one coming).
3). The immortal Tuffy Gosewisch, familiar to Diamondback fans only (or at least he should be), who has a .952 OPS in the PCL and a career MLB OPS at .531. It’s certainly true, the PCL is where you want to hit.
4). I’m not a fan of Billy Ripken. Love the F Face baseball card. Not a fan of his announcing nor his appearances on MLB Network. More a fan of Al Leiter who’s pretty decent on MLB Network and the Marlins and Yankees games I’ve watched. While we’re at it can we send Harold Reynolds back to ESPN? Keep Byrnes, who I’m glad they toned down and Smoltz and Pedro (sometimes) with Amsinger and MLB network is good to go. There were a lot of good prospects at the PCL-International All-Star game, but that isn’t my bag, so I’ll refer you here.
James Paxton, The Peasant Lord
July 16, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 47 Commentsby: LT Murray IV
Greetings! Ughh, 'tis been a rough couple days for your Lord... getting my butthole re-bleached is one thing, but my current day job forced me to fire someone for the first time in my life. Yes, I was forced to get my Donald Trump on and layoff this bih, who was once my boss. Aaaaaaaaaawkwaaaaaard to say the least. Of course, I made love to her first after doing our usual morning lines in the bathroom, as I wanted to give her one last perfect morning. Telling her to pack her shizz up and letting her know that I would be taking her job five minutes after blowing her back out was an absolute out-of-body experience. I felt the Elders gazing down upon me, guiding my firm hand as I demanded her keys, banned her from the premises, and broke her the worst news she has probably ever received in her life. Lord Beddict will no longer be giving you the pipe and you're now going to have to buy your own cocaine. Nice gal, she'll get over it... no she won't. So yeah, about [player]James Paxton[/player]... If someone could tell me how a man who throws 100 MPH can somehow only total 3 Ks over his past 13 innings, I'll service you while you suck you on a blowpop. How many licks does it take to get to the center of Paxton's psyche? 5 innings, 6 earned, 1 k, 9 hits, but hey, at least he limited the Astros to one walk...
Anyways, here's what I witnessed yesterday in fantasy baseball. Take heed!!!
Did you enjoy your time away from DFS during the All Star Break? It’s time to pull yourself away from wandering into traffic to catch Pokemon and back to grinding out DFS wins. The time off is a good time to look back and see what has worked and what hasn’t worked so far this season. Have you been withdrawing like a baller? Then keep on doing what you do. If you’ve been bleeding money to the sharks though, it’s time to take a step back and evaluate the process. Try something different for a few weeks and see if results improve. It’s really hard in this game to know what changes are making a positive impact on results and what can just be chalked up to variance. For example, I had a great April and May, followed by one of my worst months I can remember in June. Nothing changed, in fact, it’s the same process I’ve used for the past three successful DFS seasons. July has been a bounce back, but the point is; sometimes, you just go cold. Try not to panic too much and watch that bankroll. Bankroll management is a HUGE part of long term success in this game and that might be the most important part of the process to nail down. Don’t get too high after a win and suddenly start playing in $100 tournaments. You should scale back after a string of losses until you get off the schnide though. It’s not an exact science, but we’re here to help if you have any questions. Enough jibber-jabber, let’s get into the picks for Saturday’s slate of games and help you start off the second half with a win:
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I am always a day late and a buck short on the posts because I am relegated to be the Saturday morning cartoon of the Razzball variety. No worries, I mean, who doesn't love 80's cartoons and can't list 10 shows that would drastically alter children's universes today? One word... Snorks. So with everyone else doing the second-half rankings, I felt it was my duty to give the closer rankings based solely on the second games remaining. The elite will still be the elite, the mediocre are still mediocre, and the middling teams will still be middling. I don't care what algorithm Jimmy Bill came up with to have expected win totals and blah blah. Expected win totals are an indicator of save expectations. because the percent of saves converted in wins by teams has been pretty stagnant at 52%, give or take a few sheckles each way. So looking at the games remaining, some teams have less games to play then others, and some have more so the expected totals for some teams will be different then what you would expect them to be. So as a wise person once said to me in throws of fantasy passion, lets have at it. Cheers!
On Wednesday I gave you my second half projections for hitters. At the request of a commenter I have decided to see what I can come up with for starting pitchers. While projections are a slippery slope, I going to give it the old college try anyway. I've come to realize that you really can't be wrong when making projections. It's impossible to be right, so by process of elimination, how can I be wrong. Anyone follow that absolutely twisted logic? Me neither.
As I did with my hitter projections, I have merged my weighted preseason projections with weighted year-to-date stats to generate rest of season projections. Hocus-pocus. Abracadabra. I present my second half visions.
Given standard points systems do you have any guesses who might be projected to score the most points in the second half. Despite currently being on the disabled list, [player]Clayton Kershaw[/player] still manages to come out on top. Kershaw is in line for another 334 points. Obviously this is all predicated on him making a quick return to action. The longer he's out, the less points he will score. But then again, that's basic math. Or is it just common sense?
The break is over! How long was that?10 Days? It's never a good day when there is no baseball. But we're back, so let's get into the picks. Marcus Stroman had a less than stellar start to his season. He will be looking to lower his 4.89 ERA in the second half of the season. After slightly tweaking his mechanics, his last two starts resembled the heroic Stroman of 2015. In his last two starts, he has thrown 14.2 innings where he has gave up only 3 runs on 8 hits, and issuing 6 K with only 1 BB. As the season wears on, Stroman has thrown harder. He started the year off throwing around 92 mph, and his his last two starts he has averaged over 94 mph. Not only is he throwing harder, he has also been utilising his slider. He increased his slider percentage to 38% in his last two starts, and has generated a 25% whiff percentage from it. Stroman has seen success when throwing less of a variety of pitches. He is unlikely to rack up 10+ K, but I can see him pitching 7 innings with 6 K. He should provide value at his price of $7,500. The only issue I have with Stro is that he might be hungover from his trip to Cabo during the break. And with that, I give you the rest of my picks for this Friday DFS slate...
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I'm doing fine without games every day. Thanks for checking in on me. *nervous giggle, looks into the mirror, laughs hysterically* I'm just fine! The other day at 7 PM EST, I took a magic marker and every few minutes I wrote on my computer, giving my fantasy team a run, RBI and the occasional home run. Sadly, even with my fantasy fantasy team accruing stats, Chris Archer gave up four earned in six innings. Since there were no games this week and players haven’t been able to get hot or cold or humid, this Buy/Sell is going to be slightly different. This Buy/Sell includes some players that are owned in more than 50% of leagues. Okay, that’s not different for the Sells, but it does change the Buys. The other day on our podcast I asked JB if he knew the one and only white reggae artist, Snow, because he has a doppelganger on the Pirates, Ja-Snow, but JB didn't know Snow because JB was born in the 2000s. But I was also asked by him who is my biggest buy of the 2nd half. For that I said, “Um, well, I have to say, actually, actually, actually, my biggest buy is, uh, um, hmm.” Spit it out, Grey! You know how your own voice sounds weird? I wonder if that holds up for the Movie Trailer Guy. Finally, I said David Price, who I will get to shortly. Yes, that was the worst intro ever to Michael Brantley. I was trying to squeeze Brantley into my top 100 for the 2nd half, then I was like, “Grey, you’re handsome, smart and other words for those two traits. You’ll find a way to squeeze in Brantley if you really think he belongs. Also, what are we having for lunch?” Salmon poke, but no dice on Brantley. At the end of the day, that day specifically, I decided Brantley's shoulder injury worries me too much for inclusion, but I'd still stash him on my DL or buy him crazysupercheap, which is also the price for the CrazySexyCool album on CD. "These things will never go out of style!" That's me spending thousands of dollars on CDs. For the 2nd half, Brantley's projections look like Yunel's 5 HRs, 4 SBs, .295, but maybe his last cortisone shot will take and he'll be his old self for six weeks to two months. For the price you can get him right now, it's worth it to find out. Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
Earlier this week, we looked at some lightly owned hitters in ESPN leagues who could be potential difference makers in fantasy baseball over the second half of the season. Today, it's time to focus on some pitchers who can give your fake teams a boost down the stretch. Even if your team's ratios look more unsightly than a Meg Ryan facelift, there's still plenty of time remaining to fix those issues. So put down those Francisco Liriano and James Shields voodoo dolls people, and let's go to work.
Top Rookies for Second Half of 2016 Fantasy Baseball
July 14, 2016 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 213 Commentsby: Geoff
Whatta day, here's how it started. I woke up around 5 am, drank lots of coffee, did work stuff, got word around 8:15 that Alex Bregman would get the call this weekend and was set to join the surging Astros in Seattle. I then proceeded to pat myself on the back, throw a finger to the haters, and all the people who lived in the buildings I was prospecting in front of that called the cops on me when I was trying to make some money to feed my daughter. It was show and prove time for mi numero uno perspectiva fantasia. No longer would readers lament my existence while they starred down a dead spot on their rosters. For it was Bregman day and it was glorious. Then POOF it wasn't, as A.J. Hinch decided to open his fat mouth and tell everyone that numero uno perspectiva fantasia Alex Bregman , would NOT be joining the team in Seattle. He did offer one assurance, Bregman could help the team down the stretch. Ahhhhh, hi A.J., my name's Ralph, NO SH**. I've only been saying that forever. Doesn't matter, he's coming up. Maybe not this weekend, but maybe next week. Hell, maybe Monday! I'm the captain of the SS prospector, and I will sink this ship before I change course! Knowing I was writing this post for today, I thought "how appropriate everything is coming together for Ralph, The Summer of Ralph!!!". Meh, enough of that let's talk about the rookies that will give your redraft team a boost in the second half.
Projecting My Feelings About The Second Half
July 13, 2016 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 127 Commentsby: malamoney
As much as I hate projections, I'm going to give them to you anyway. Who cares what you actually want, right? Just let me throw some darts at some numbers and I'll be right with you. Seriously, I'd love to try that one of these years. Next year I will be debuting my new dartboard projection system which is practically guaranteed to be no worse than any other expert. I think that's actually how CBS and ESPN calculate their yearly projections. How bad could they be? Don't answer that. Instead of stooping to such a level (at least yet) I have married weighted versions of my preseason projections with weighted year-to-date performances to determine rest-of-season projections. Usually I cater to the points league enthusiasts, but today I am flipping the script and going full roto. I realize that Kirk Lazarus warned us to never go full rotard, but I'm just feeling it today. If I go home empty handed, then I go home empty handed.
Here are my rest of season projections for four of the five major roto categories...
No Whammies!, Week 15: All-Star Break Stinks
July 13, 2016 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 14 Commentsby: Son
I hate the All-Star break. There are no games to watch, no games to bet on, no DFS, and no accumulating stats for fantasy. My life is empty and meaningless, except for the wife and two kids thing. The worst thing about the All-Star break is the All-Star game itself. That one game exhibition, in which no one tries hard, determines home field for the World Series? Seriously? How the F-ing, F did someone think that would be a good idea? Even my tree-puffing, shroom-eating self would have thought that was a bad idea. Want to make the All-Star game competitive? Make contracts non-guaranteed, like in football, for the losing squad. I bet we'd see some epic battles then. This article was written and submitted prior to the All-Star game, so if it was an epic, competitive game, spam the MLB front offices with your approval. 
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