What has become tradition over the past several years, I’ve been pumping bold predictions, like, well, insert your own mom joke here. I’ve even done them over on the Fantasy Football side of things. Speaking of which, don’t forget, shameless plug alert, Fantasy Football is coming! [Insert another mom joke here.] So since this is my little corner here on the baseball side of things, and seeing as how we’re near the All-Star break, what is tacitly known as the half-time marker of the season, I thought it’d be nice to check out how badly my predictions look now, and estimate how much crow I’ll have to eat by season’s end. Join me? (I meant the post. Not eating the crow. Unless you like eating crow. Then here’s some salt. Just dump it all over.)
Note: All projections are based on Steamer.
Justin Smoak will hit at least 30 home runs.
Justin Smoak has hit 8 home runs, and is projected to finish with 13.
Alright, to be fair, this would be the highest amount of home runs he’s hit since 2013. Then again, if these projections come true, he won’t even come within half of my prediction. So yeah, this one isn’t looking so hot… but he has hit a robust .250 in 66 games. And yeah, it’s considered robust because last season he hit a “non-robust” .202. The main issue is the fact that he hasn’t found the amount of starts that would be needed to get some volume in his counting stats, and he seemingly won’t find those AB’s in the second half either. And while I might lose out on this one, I do want to point out that if he did reach 550 AB’s this season (a probable starter’s workload), his 8 home runs would have translated to 31. Maybe I’m just too ahead of the game…
Phil Hughes will finish the year with more strikeouts, more wins, and a lower ERA than Chris Sale.
Phil Hughes has 67 strikeouts, 7 wins, and a 4.19 ERA, and is projected to finish with 134 strikeouts, 12 wins, and a 4.13 ERA.
Chris Sale has 147 strikeouts, 7 wins, and a 2.80 ERA, and is projected to finish with 276 strikeouts, 14 wins, and a 2.76 ERA.
So, it’s safe to say was just a little off here. It was close though. CLOSE. I think the most interesting thing here is the projected strikeout total from Sale. That’s what the experts refer to as amaze-balls.
Adam LaRoche will have a better season than Anthony Rizzo across the board.
Adam LaRoche has batted .226 with 9 home runs, 30 runs, and 33 RBI’s, and is projected to finish with a .229 batting average, 21 homeruns, 65 runs, and 70 RBI’s.
Anthony Rizzo has batted .296 with 16 home runs, 48 runs, and 48 RBI’s, and is projected to finish with a .287 batting average, 32 home runs, 95 runs, and 92 RBI’s.
The main gist of this prediction was to point out how errily similar these two players were in terms of production the last three years, all to reinforce the idea that LaRoche was a cheap alternative. Some took this as an affront, as if I was personally attacking their first-born child, which is fine. Fanaticism is a funny thing. Others took this as solid advice, which probably wasn’t as fine. Because I can be a funny thing. Obviously, LaRoche will not fulfill his end of my prediction, but I’m not so sure that a second-half rebound is out of the question with so many of his batted ball numbers due for regression.
Steven Vogt will end the year as a top-5 catcher.
Steven Vogt has batted .283 with 13 home runs, 40 runs, and 54 RBI’s, and is projected to finish with a .273 batting average, 20 home runs, 67 runs, and 82 RBI’s.
Well, whatya know, one that might actually turn out to be correct. Based on offense alone, (though, there are different ways to gauge this, I’ve used wRC+), the top-5 catchers thus far have been, in order, Buster Posey, Russell Martin, Stephen Vogt, Brian McCann, and Derek Norris. Not too bad…
Christian Yelich will have a better average, more home runs, and more stolen bases than Jacoby Ellsbury.
Christian Yelich has hit .259 with 5 home runs, and stolen 7 bases, and is projected to finish with a .263 batting average, 11 home runs, and 14 stolen bases.
Jacoby Ellsbury has hit .321 with 1 home run and stolen 14 bases, and is projected to finish with a .298 batting average, 8 home runs, and 31 stolen bases.
Granted, the batting averages are a huge difference, but if Yelich didn’t suffer a back injury in late April, the counting stats may have been a bit closer. The gap could get a bit tighter if Yelich catches fire for a bit and Ellsbury continues to have inconsistent starts, but for now, we’ll have to chalk this in the loss column. Yes, chalk is still a thing. Somewhere.
Jason Heyward will have a 30/30 season.
Jason Heyward has 9 home runs and 9 stolen bases and is projected to finish the year with 17 home runs and 15 stolen bases.
Alright, well, I think we’ll just have to accept this is who he is, and that’s a slightly above average MLB hitter with superb defense. Not exactly elite fantasy material, but certainly a real-life impact player. Will he ever find his power stroke again? I actually still think so (one day maybe), but he’d probably have to stop hitting ground balls at a clip of 56.1%.
Ken Giles will end the season with more saves than Jonathan Papelbon.
Ken Giles has 0 saves, and is projected to finish with 0 saves.
Jonathan Papelbon has 14 saves and is projected to finish with 29 saves.
To be fair, this one is sorta of the “long con”, as Giles wasn’t supposed to net his saves until after Papelbon got traded. The continued trend of being utterly lost by the Phillies front office might actually fudge this obvious trade up, so we’ll have to take a wait and see approach.
Xander Bogaerts will end the year with more fantasy value than Mookie Betts.
Xander Bogaerts has hit .304 with 3 home runs, 38 runs, 41 RBI’s, and 4 stolen bases, and is projected to finish with a .288 batting average, 10 home runs, 69 runs, 74 RBI’s and 6 stolen bases.
Mookie Betts has hit .276 with 9 home runs, 45 runs, 41 RBI’s and 13 stolen bases, and is projected to finish with a .297 batting average, 16 home runs, 84 runs, and 25 stolen bases.
It’s certainly an interesting prediction, and I say this because I still haven’t quite figured out a way to gauge these players based on their position. Remember, it isn’t just who will produce more, it also implies the players entire value is the determining factor. While it’s easy to conclude that Betts has produced more (it’s true, he has), I think these numbers are a lot closer than they appear. For instance, here is the total position’s production thus far:
| Position | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SS | 0.251 | 197 | 1215 | 1080 | 192 | 82 |
| OF | 0.259 | 963 | 4344 | 3805 | 774 | 103 |
It’s no surprise that the number of outfielders in the MLB towering over the number of shortstops creates quite the production gap. But it’s interesting in that fantasy leagues have a similar format, employing, in most cases, five outfield slots and just two (MI and SS) positions where a shortstop can find a home.
Here’s how the two players fair against the league totals:
| Player | AVG | HR | R | RBI | SB | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xander Bogaerts | +53 | 0.015 | 0.031 | 0.038 | 0.021 | +25 |
| Mookie Betts | +17 | 0.009 | 0.010 | 0.011 | 0.017 | +9 |
This table shows how many points higher they are hitting, batting average wise, and what percentage they are producing, based on their positional peers. I included how many points they are above their positions average wRC+ as well.
While I can’t, with complete certainty, establish that Mookie Betts has less value than Bogaerts, it’s very clear that their production and “value” has to be considered through the lens of their position, and it’ll make an interesting debate when the season closes.
Matt Kemp will start more games than Mike Trout.
Matt Kemp has started in 84 games and Mike Trout has started in 85 games.
I figured most people would think I was high when I predicted this (JUST HIGH ON LIFE), so consider me stunned that this is actually close. Granted, Kemp’s stats have been just a tad less valuable, but the fact that he hasn’t had a body part implode is amazing.
The Boston Red Sox 1-4 Starters will end the year with more combined fantasy value than the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-4 Starters.
LOL.
Bryce Harper will hit more than 50 home runs and steal more than 30 bases.
Bryce Harper has hit 25 home runs and has 4 stolen bases, and is projected to finish with 39 home runs and 8 stolen bases.
Alright, alright, we all knew the stolen base part was the hardest part, but I will happily take all the credit if he comes marginally close to a 50/15 line. Even if he goes 40/10, which seems close to reasonable, I will also claim victory. It won’t count as a correct prediction, but based on how this list is turning out, does it really matter?
Not really.
Want more of the Jay? Don’t we all folks? Don’t. We. All. Well, you, in fact, can have more. AMAZING. I know. You can find Jay enjoying his dig’s over at the Football side of Razz.
