With the top 80 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball, we are so close to the end of the rankings I can almost taste it! Wait, that’s not rankings I taste, I bit my lip and it’s blood. I wonder if when Dracula bites his lip it’s like when Cougs goes out with her friends and I’m left at home while Emmanuelle is on Cinemax. You might say to yourself, “Self, everyone is totally fooled by my toupee and do I really need to draft starters this deep in my friendly 12-team mixed league?” You don’t, except you will own guys from this post this year either from the draft or from waivers or your leaguemates will own them and beat you. Last year, in the tier of pitchers I liked in the top 80 starters was Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Heaney. They had an ERA of 3.26 in 467 IP. You put three guys like that together with, say, Kluber and Rodon and you have all the pitching you need. Or team three starters like that with Hamels and Corbin or Ventura and Lester. I’ll go over exactly how to draft starters in a few days, but there are so many ways to skin a cat we should have PETA breathing down our necks. All the 2016 fantasy baseball rankings are there. My tiers and projections are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball:
61. Collin McHugh – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Maeda. I call this tier, “Jabronis.” As for McHugh, this is a huge fall from his end-of-the-season ranking on our Player Rater. Of course, that was predicated on him getting 19 wins. Yeah, that’s likely to happen again. Ow, eye roll headache! He’s just as likely to have more losses than wins as he is to have 19 wins again. Why focus on wins? Because the rest of his stats were pretty lacking. “Did you finally rank me?!” I said lacking, not Lackey. Pipe down, John. 2016 Projections: 14-9/3.82/1.26/162 in 195 IP
62. Jaime Garcia – One word about the Jabronis tier before tackling Garcia. *Garcia runs away* Figuratively, Garcia, I wasn’t going to tackle you! The Jabronis are not guys I’d draft, but they are guys I’d pick up. When someone is going well, I’d pick them up. I’m Jabroni-blind when guys are going well. I say that now because I could see owning Garcia at some point. That point likely being about three days before he returns from one of his numerous DL stints. Garcia will turn 30 this year and has been pitching professionally for ten years, and he’s never pitched 200 IP in a season. Jaime? More like Goodbye-me. Amiright?! 2016 Projections: 8-5/3.41/1.21/92 in 120 IP
63. John Lackey – Here’s what I said this offseason, “After Lackey signed with the Cubs, I read that Henderson Alvarez was drawing “massive interest.” If Lackey read that, I think he might’ve held out for another ten million dollars. Lackey turned a 2.77 ERA year into only a $32 million contract. Dude, next time just let Lori Grenier put you on QVC, she could get more.” And that’s me quoting me! 2016 Projections: 14-11/3.72/1.24/167 in 197 IP
64. Justin Verlander – When pitchers start to show decline, they can become different pitchers and be effective. They don’t decline, then suddenly turn their careers back around and become the pitchers they once were, so it’s nice you’re holding onto Verlander like you’re Kate Upton, but you’re not Kate Upton and please stop ruining my thoughts of Kate Upton with your sweatpants and greasy hair. 2016 Projections: 11-10/3.68/1.25/172 in 200 IP
65. Julio Teheran – If he were traded to the Mariners or Padres or Dodgers or, you get the point, I could see Teheran being a solid gamble. Since he’s on the Braves, what’s he capable of? Best case scenario? 11 wins and 3.50? Lowercase yay. After his 2014 season, when he had a 3.72 xFIP, we should’ve all moved on. After 2015, we should all wait until we see something worthwhile again. He’s going the other way with his walk rate, which is bad sign like Scorpio. His fastball wasn’t effective, which is likely why the walk rate went up, i.e., he couldn’t get guys out with his fastball so he walked hitters instead, i.e., it’s not good, I before E, except in receive, don’t bother. 2016 Projections: 10-13/3.60/1.25/174 in 208 IP
66. Gio Gonzalez – This guy reminds me of a rich man’s Yovani Gallardo, so instead of YoGa, I will call him Pilates. Like YoGa, Pilates seems to avoid being complete garbage even though his walk rate could easily go that way. At least, unlike YoGa, Pilates does strike people out. Welcome, Googlers of Kate Upton + sweatpants+ yoga + pilates, we won’t judge you here, but please keep both of your hands where we can see them. 2016 Projections: 11-9/3.67/1.32/162 in 170 IP
67. Kenta Maeda – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(He) signed with the Dodgers and has been labeled as “Not as good as Yu and Masahiro.” Looks that good though. Right? I guess one can edit together 200 IP into a three-minute video to make Bartolo Colon look skinny too. Okay, with some funhouse mirrors. I say Maeda could be getting a favorable edit like CT after he started dating Diem because his K-rate was just 7.4 in Japan, which is solid, but not spectacular. Baseball in the Land of the Rising Sun has often been compared to playing in Triple-A. I’d like to add the Nippon Professional Baseball league is like Triple-A, but almost everyone is Japanese. Perhaps an unnecessary distinction. So, if a guy is 7+ K/9 in Japan (or Triple-A) that doesn’t land him in the elite class of pitchers like Yu and Masahiro. If Darvish and Masahiro are toro, Maeda is the tuna they chop up for the spicy tuna roll. Since it’s impossible to not compare one Japanese pitcher to another, a 7+ K/9 compares more favorably to Iwakuma. Iwakuma is still a solid comparison for a pitcher to receive; that’s still a number two to (stutterer!) three fantasy starter. Unfortch, I think Maeda is likely a notch below Iwakuma. On a real baseball note, Maeda’s deal was an 8-year deal for $24 million. I’m guessing the Dodgers hired Melky Cabrera to hack into Japan’s Google, or as it’s known there, Googre, and change all recent baseball salaries to thousands rather than millions. “So, David Price will earn two hundred and seventeen thousand dollars? I’m definitely taking a deal for three million a year!” That’s Kenta reading off of Googre.” And that’s me quoting me! One small note on my original projections for Maeda (14-10/3.66/1.16/152 in 200 IP), they were given before the Dodgers announced Maeda had elbow concerns. The Dodgers still signed him, so that’s good, but then they signed Brandon Beachy hoping to harvest his one remaining elbow tendon for Maeda. I’m likely giving Maeda a pass for this year, due to elbow concerns and am lowering his projections. 2016 Projections: 9-7/3.79/1.19/115 in 150 IP
68. Ian Kennedy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Ryu. I call this tier, “Unexciting, but safe.” Without getting completely into how to draft a rotation, this tier will be drafted when you feel your rotation is slightly too upsidey. The next tier will be used when you feel like your staff is too safe and not upsidey enough. And when your staff is exciting, upsidey and safe, you’re a Trojan man. This blurb was sponsored by the friend you sent into CVS to buy you condoms in high school. As for Kennedy, his stats look like a poor man’s Shields. I will call him Umbrella. “Are you at all concerned about going into combat with nothing but an umbrella to protect yourself?” That’s a reporter interviewing a soldier in the Congo. I say Kennedy is like Shields because his K/9 was 9+, he pitched in Petco and his ERA was kinda wonky. Elements are here for Kennedy to be safe, but that’s also what the Secret Service said in 1963. 2016 Projections: 9-11/3.88/1.29/180 in 185 IP
69. Clay Buchholz – A saberhagenmetrician would be quick to point that Buchholz is due for a terrible ERA year in 2016. Saberhagenmetricians also banked on Empire Strike Back being bad, Return of the Jedi being good, Phantom Menace being bad, Attack of the Clones being good, etc. So they’re mysteriously simplistic analysis of the future doesn’t always hold water. But, really, what does? A tall glass? A bucket? A fish tank? Since when did we look to fish tanks for baseball projections? I think you see my point. 2016 Projections: 9-8/3.71/1.26/130 in 145 IP
70. Nate Karns – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Karns was) sent the other way in the Rays/Mariners trade. Also going to the Mariners was C.J. Riefenhauser and Boog Powell. Great pickup with Boog; now Safeco will be the best place to get legit BBQ in the Pacific Northwest. Nobody does barbecue like Boog Powell! As for Karns, he was a streamer in 12-team and shallower leagues last year, and I still see that likely happening. He does get Safeco now, though, so there’s a chance he goes from streamer in April to being ownable in all leagues by May.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2016 Projections: 11-8/3.77/1.25/162 in 170 innings.
71. Hyun-Jin Ryu – One thing I realized as I was going through this safe tier is I need to bust out the quotes around ‘safe,’ because these guys aren’t really safe without quotes. If they were safe without quotes, they’d be ranked about forty spots higher. For this part of the draft, they’re about as ‘safe’ as you’re going to get. As for Ryu, he missed all of last year with a torn labrum. A torn labrum — or as Paulie would say to a pitcher, “Hey, you popped your cherry!” — isn’t great, but he had surgery to repair it and should be fine. Ryu convinced? Not entirely, but I’d risk a fifth fantasy starter pick on him because he was great before the injury; he’s in a good park, great division and will only be 29 years old. 2016 Projections: 11-9/3.61/1.20/112 in 140 IP
72. Daniel Norris – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Grey’s upside your head!” As mentioned in the explanation of the previous tier, this is the companion piece that goes with safety. As for Norris, I’ve already given you my Daniel Norris sleeper. It was written while trying and failing to figure out how I know some of my Facebook friends. 2016 Projections: 9-11/3.67/1.22/155 in 180 IP
73. Vincent Velasquez – I just briefly mentioned Velasquez earlier this year when he was traded to the Phillies for Ken Giles (along with point guard, Derek Fisher), because I was hoping to do a sleeper post on Velasquez, but I haven’t gotten to it yet, but there’s always hope for March Grey to churn something out. “You want me to make butter?” That’s March Grey being a doofus. Velasquez has nasty stuff as the kids and Janet Jackson would say. Not Janet Jackson’s kids though, oddly enough. He touches 94-95 and can break off a curve that makes pitching coaches say, “Break me off a piece of that!” Velasquez only threw 88 2/3 IP last year between the majors and minors, so I doubt he jumps all the way to 150+ IP and since he walks people, things could get ugly, but I like this flyer at the backend of a staff. 2016 Projections: 6-9/3.56/1.24/122 in 120 IP
74. Erasmo Ramirez – There’s an argument to be made that Erasmo is the third best Rays pitcher after Odorizzi and before Smyly. I’m ranking Erasmo way after those guys so I’m not making that argument. Erasmo did make some strides last year. The biggest reason he was better last year vs. previous years? He only threw his curveball 4.7% of the time, which was around the bottom 20 for the entire major leagues. Why is it important that he threw his curveball so little? Because it was pretty much garbage, whereas his slider is a better pitch and he threw that more. Yes, it took the Rays to figure out someone should throw pitches that work more than ones that don’t. Rocket science, I tell you. 2016 Projections: 10-12/3.64/1.22/143 in 180 IP
75. James Paxton – Here’s me trying to move Paxton higher in the rankings: *typing, moving mouse, vaping, typing, moving mouse* Okay, that is also what it looks like when I’m ranking every pitcher. I did try to move Paxton up, but there’s only so much room and Paxton is now 27 years old and has a high of 74 IP in any major league season. Soon it’s going to look like the Mariners should’ve traded Paxton away with all of their other pitching prospects since F-Her. UPDATE: Paxton was sent to the minors, losing the fifth starter job to Nate Karns. Oh, darns! 2016 Projections: 8-6/3.72/1.29/117 in 130 IP
76. Aaron Sanchez – If you were to verbally ask me if Aaron Sanchez has a role in the Jays bullpen or rotation, I’d likely hem and haw. By the way, Hem and Haw sounds like Country Western cartoon characters. “Did you see the one where Hem and Haw brought a ruler to line dancing? I nearly guffawed out of my boots!” What I’m saying is I have no idea if Sanchez will be in the rotation all year, and if I had to guess, I’d say he won’t. Too much riding on the Jays season and too many long men in the pen, and, no, they didn’t sign Chris Young. I have a feeling the Jays rotation will come down to Sanchez, Hutchison, Floyd and Jesse Chavez vying for the fifth spot with Sanchez winning for at least a few months. 2016 Projections: 8-9/3.46/1.24/110 in 130 IP
77. Juan Nicasio – “With my last trick, I will make Paul Simon six-feet tall, while throwing a 94 MPH fastball with pinpoint control.” Then Ray Searage waved a fancy-style cape in front of the audience. It didn’t block their gaze, but it was such an exotic-looking garment, they were distracted enough to not notice a six-foot tall Paul Simon walk onto stage, towering over Art Garfunkel. Simon then threw a brushback pitch while singing Home Plate Bound. Prior, of course, Searage made the seemingly all-over-the-map, Juan Nicasio, into an ace. Or at least an ace in spring training. Do I believe Nicasio is fixed because of some spring training stats? Actually, yeah, he could be, and is worth a flyer. Last year, he averaged 95 MPH on his fastball, and his undoing was always his control, which Searage has helped with other pitchers. Bring Searage your stuff, and he’ll make it work. 2016 Projections: 8-10/3.81/1.33/148 in 165 IP
78. Rich Hill – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the A’s. We need a sniglet for a reclamation project pitcher who is hideous for ten years, then has a great season of less than 30 innings and is signed by Billy Beane, making him an immediate sleeper for next year. I’m going with re-tried Beanes. Since 2005, Hill has had exactly one season over 60 IP thrown and that was in 2007. Sorry if those re-tried Beanes are giving me gas.” And that’s me quoting me! Nothing’s obviously changed since I wrote that, but I considered that for the right price, I would draft Hill. I still don’t expect much of anything, and it seems like a lot of other people want to draft him earlier than this, so bygones and whatnot on that. Bygones and whatnot on that because he’s thrown more than 60IP once in his career, nine years ago, and he’s going to be 36 years old. I mean, c’mon, we’re not realistic about our chances in reality, but we can be realistic about our chances in fantasy. 2016 Projections: 7-3/3.24/1.22/105 in 90 IP
79. Nathan Eovaldi – Okay, yeah, we got burned by this guy last year. And some of us were even burned in 2014. Well, as Al Gore once said, “The future is what you make it, like I made the Internet.” Eovaldi, or as Rachel Ray calls him EVOO, was not necessarily that bad last year. And ‘not necessarily’ is a lanscape architect’s favorite phrase to do some hedging. EVOO wasn’t necessarily good either with his 4.20 ERA — stoner! His velocity continues to rise, which is no small feat like a bowling alley that doesn’t cater to dwarves. He already had a 95.7 MPH fastball, and last year it went up to 96.7 on average. That was the 2nd highest velocity in the majors after Syndergaard for pitchers with 150 IP. Of course, he has been a velocitease his entire career with only a 7.1 K/9 last year. I’d gamble he finally puts it together with his 96 MPH fastball, but I wouldn’t gamble much as his ranking here testifies. And I might be the first white person to use testifies casually in a sentence outside of Quentin Tarantino. 2016 Projections: 13-7/3.86/1.36/157 in 190 IP
80. Jimmy Nelson – I should’ve just called this tier, “Damn there’s a lot of young pitchers that can throw fast. Oh, and Rich Hill.” Nelson touches 94 with his fastball and has a great slider. It’s dominant. Which makes one wonder, why does he only throw it 17% of the time. Then again, maybe that’s why it worked. He reduced usage of the pitch from 25% of the time in 2014, but it’s effectiveness shot up. I guess what I’m really saying is why can’t Ryan Hanigan catch every pitcher in this tier? 2016 Projections: 11-14/3.91/1.27/160 in 185 IP
