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With the top 80 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball, we are so close to the end of the rankings I can almost taste it!  Wait, that’s not rankings I taste, I bit my lip and it’s blood.  I wonder if when Dracula bites his lip it’s like when Cougs goes out with her friends and I’m left at home while Emmanuelle is on Cinemax.  You might say to yourself, “Self, everyone is totally fooled by my toupee and do I really need to draft starters this deep in my friendly 12-team mixed league?”  You don’t, except you will own guys from this post this year either from the draft or from waivers or your leaguemates will own them and beat you.  Last year, in the tier of pitchers I liked in the top 80 starters was Wacha, Carlos Martinez and Heaney.  They had an ERA of 3.26 in 467 IP.  You put three guys like that together with, say, Kluber and Rodon and you have all the pitching you need.  Or team three starters like that with Hamels and Corbin or Ventura and Lester.  I’ll go over exactly how to draft starters in a few days, but there are so many ways to skin a cat we should have PETA breathing down our necks.  All the 2016 fantasy baseball rankings are there.  My tiers and projections are noted.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball:

61. Collin McHugh – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Maeda.  I call this tier, “Jabronis.”  As for McHugh, this is a huge fall from his end-of-the-season ranking on our Player Rater.  Of course, that was predicated on him getting 19 wins.  Yeah, that’s likely to happen again.  Ow, eye roll headache!  He’s just as likely to have more losses than wins as he is to have 19 wins again.  Why focus on wins?  Because the rest of his stats were pretty lacking.  “Did you finally rank me?!”  I said lacking, not Lackey.  Pipe down, John.  2016 Projections:  14-9/3.82/1.26/162 in 195 IP

62. Jaime Garcia – One word about the Jabronis tier before tackling Garcia.  *Garcia runs away*  Figuratively, Garcia, I wasn’t going to tackle you!  The Jabronis are not guys I’d draft, but they are guys I’d pick up.  When someone is going well, I’d pick them up.  I’m Jabroni-blind when guys are going well.  I say that now because I could see owning Garcia at some point.  That point likely being about three days before he returns from one of his numerous DL stints.  Garcia will turn 30 this year and has been pitching professionally for ten years, and he’s never pitched 200 IP in a season.  Jaime?  More like Goodbye-me.  Amiright?!  2016 Projections:  8-5/3.41/1.21/92 in 120 IP

63. John Lackey – Here’s what I said this offseason, “After Lackey signed with the Cubs, I read that Henderson Alvarez was drawing “massive interest.”  If Lackey read that, I think he might’ve held out for another ten million dollars.  Lackey turned a 2.77 ERA year into only a $32 million contract.  Dude, next time just let Lori Grenier put you on QVC, she could get more.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2016 Projections:  14-11/3.72/1.24/167 in 197 IP

64. Justin Verlander – When pitchers start to show decline, they can become different pitchers and be effective.  They don’t decline, then suddenly turn their careers back around and become the pitchers they once were, so it’s nice you’re holding onto Verlander like you’re Kate Upton, but you’re not Kate Upton and please stop ruining my thoughts of Kate Upton with your sweatpants and greasy hair.  2016 Projections:  11-10/3.68/1.25/172 in 200 IP

65. Julio Teheran – If he were traded to the Mariners or Padres or Dodgers or, you get the point, I could see Teheran being a solid gamble.  Since he’s on the Braves, what’s he capable of?  Best case scenario?  11 wins and 3.50?  Lowercase yay.  After his 2014 season, when he had a 3.72 xFIP, we should’ve all moved on.  After 2015, we should all wait until we see something worthwhile again.  He’s going the other way with his walk rate, which is bad sign like Scorpio.   His fastball wasn’t effective, which is likely why the walk rate went up, i.e., he couldn’t get guys out with his fastball so he walked hitters instead, i.e., it’s not good, I before E, except in receive, don’t bother.  2016 Projections: 10-13/3.60/1.25/174 in 208 IP

66. Gio Gonzalez – This guy reminds me of a rich man’s Yovani Gallardo, so instead of YoGa, I will call him Pilates.  Like YoGa, Pilates seems to avoid being complete garbage even though his walk rate could easily go that way.  At least, unlike YoGa, Pilates does strike people out.  Welcome, Googlers of Kate Upton + sweatpants+ yoga + pilates, we won’t judge you here, but please keep both of your hands where we can see them.  2016 Projections:  11-9/3.67/1.32/162 in 170 IP

67. Kenta Maeda – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(He) signed with the Dodgers and has been labeled as “Not as good as Yu and Masahiro.”  Looks that good though.  Right?  I guess one can edit together 200 IP into a three-minute video to make Bartolo Colon look skinny too.  Okay, with some funhouse mirrors.  I say Maeda could be getting a favorable edit like CT after he started dating Diem because his K-rate was just 7.4 in Japan, which is solid, but not spectacular.  Baseball in the Land of the Rising Sun has often been compared to playing in Triple-A.  I’d like to add the Nippon Professional Baseball league is like Triple-A, but almost everyone is Japanese.  Perhaps an unnecessary distinction.  So, if a guy is 7+ K/9 in Japan (or Triple-A) that doesn’t land him in the elite class of pitchers like Yu and Masahiro.  If Darvish and Masahiro are toro, Maeda is the tuna they chop up for the spicy tuna roll.  Since it’s impossible to not compare one Japanese pitcher to another, a 7+ K/9 compares more favorably to Iwakuma.  Iwakuma is still a solid comparison for a pitcher to receive; that’s still a number two to (stutterer!) three fantasy starter.  Unfortch, I think Maeda is likely a notch below Iwakuma.  On a real baseball note, Maeda’s deal was an 8-year deal for $24 million.  I’m guessing the Dodgers hired Melky Cabrera to hack into Japan’s Google, or as it’s known there, Googre, and change all recent baseball salaries to thousands rather than millions.  “So, David Price will earn two hundred and seventeen thousand dollars?  I’m definitely taking a deal for three million a year!”  That’s Kenta reading off of Googre.”  And that’s me quoting me!  One small note on my original projections for Maeda (14-10/3.66/1.16/152 in 200 IP), they were given before the Dodgers announced Maeda had elbow concerns.  The Dodgers still signed him, so that’s good, but then they signed Brandon Beachy hoping to harvest his one remaining elbow tendon for Maeda.  I’m likely giving Maeda a pass for this year, due to elbow concerns and am lowering his projections.  2016 Projections: 9-7/3.79/1.19/115 in 150 IP

68. Ian Kennedy – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Ryu.  I call this tier, “Unexciting, but safe.”  Without getting completely into how to draft a rotation, this tier will be drafted when you feel your rotation is slightly too upsidey.  The next tier will be used when you feel like your staff is too safe and not upsidey enough.  And when your staff is exciting, upsidey and safe, you’re a Trojan man.  This blurb was sponsored by the friend you sent into CVS to buy you condoms in high school.  As for Kennedy, his stats look like a poor man’s Shields.  I will call him Umbrella.  “Are you at all concerned about going into combat with nothing but an umbrella to protect yourself?”  That’s a reporter interviewing a soldier in the Congo.  I say Kennedy is like Shields because his K/9 was 9+, he pitched in Petco and his ERA was kinda wonky.  Elements are here for Kennedy to be safe, but that’s also what the Secret Service said in 1963.  2016 Projections:  9-11/3.88/1.29/180 in 185 IP

69. Clay Buchholz – A saberhagenmetrician would be quick to point that Buchholz is due for a terrible ERA year in 2016.  Saberhagenmetricians also banked on Empire Strike Back being bad, Return of the Jedi being good, Phantom Menace being bad, Attack of the Clones being good, etc.  So they’re mysteriously simplistic analysis of the future doesn’t always hold water.  But, really, what does?  A tall glass?  A bucket?  A fish tank?  Since when did we look to fish tanks for baseball projections?  I think you see my point.  2016 Projections:  9-8/3.71/1.26/130 in 145 IP

70. Nate Karns – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Karns was) sent the other way in the Rays/Mariners trade.  Also going to the Mariners was C.J. Riefenhauser and Boog Powell.  Great pickup with Boog; now Safeco will be the best place to get legit BBQ in the Pacific Northwest.  Nobody does barbecue like Boog Powell!  As for Karns, he was a streamer in 12-team and shallower leagues last year, and I still see that likely happening.  He does get Safeco now, though, so there’s a chance he goes from streamer in April to being ownable in all leagues by May.”  And that’s me copying and pasting me!  2016 Projections:  11-8/3.77/1.25/162 in 170 innings.

71. Hyun-Jin Ryu – One thing I realized as I was going through this safe tier is I need to bust out the quotes around ‘safe,’ because these guys aren’t really safe without quotes.  If they were safe without quotes, they’d be ranked about forty spots higher.  For this part of the draft, they’re about as ‘safe’ as you’re going to get.   As for Ryu, he missed all of last year with a torn labrum.  A torn labrum — or as Paulie would say to a pitcher, “Hey, you popped your cherry!” — isn’t great, but he had surgery to repair it and should be fine.  Ryu convinced?  Not entirely, but I’d risk a fifth fantasy starter pick on him because he was great before the injury; he’s in a good park, great division and will only be 29 years old.  2016 Projections:  11-9/3.61/1.20/112 in 140 IP

72. Daniel Norris – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2016 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Grey’s upside your head!”  As mentioned in the explanation of the previous tier, this is the companion piece that goes with safety.  As for Norris, I’ve already given you my Daniel Norris sleeper.  It was written while trying and failing to figure out how I know some of my Facebook friends.  2016 Projections:  9-11/3.67/1.22/155 in 180 IP

73. Vincent Velasquez – I just briefly mentioned Velasquez earlier this year when he was traded to the Phillies for Ken Giles (along with point guard, Derek Fisher), because I was hoping to do a sleeper post on Velasquez, but I haven’t gotten to it yet, but there’s always hope for March Grey to churn something out.  “You want me to make butter?”  That’s March Grey being a doofus.  Velasquez has nasty stuff as the kids and Janet Jackson would say.  Not Janet Jackson’s kids though, oddly enough.  He touches 94-95 and can break off a curve that makes pitching coaches say, “Break me off a piece of that!”  Velasquez only threw 88 2/3 IP last year between the majors and minors, so I doubt he jumps all the way to 150+ IP and since he walks people, things could get ugly, but I like this flyer at the backend of a staff.  2016 Projections:  6-9/3.56/1.24/122 in 120 IP

74. Erasmo Ramirez – There’s an argument to be made that Erasmo is the third best Rays pitcher after Odorizzi and before Smyly.  I’m ranking Erasmo way after those guys so I’m not making that argument.  Erasmo did make some strides last year.  The biggest reason he was better last year vs. previous years?  He only threw his curveball 4.7% of the time, which was around the bottom 20 for the entire major leagues.  Why is it important that he threw his curveball so little?  Because it was pretty much garbage, whereas his slider is a better pitch and he threw that more.  Yes, it took the Rays to figure out someone should throw pitches that work more than ones that don’t.  Rocket science, I tell you.  2016 Projections:  10-12/3.64/1.22/143 in 180 IP

75. James Paxton – Here’s me trying to move Paxton higher in the rankings: *typing, moving mouse, vaping, typing, moving mouse*  Okay, that is also what it looks like when I’m ranking every pitcher.  I did try to move Paxton up, but there’s only so much room and Paxton is now 27 years old and has a high of 74 IP in any major league season.  Soon it’s going to look like the Mariners should’ve traded Paxton away with all of their other pitching prospects since F-Her.  UPDATE:  Paxton was sent to the minors, losing the fifth starter job to Nate Karns.  Oh, darns!  2016 Projections:  8-6/3.72/1.29/117 in 130 IP

76. Aaron Sanchez – If you were to verbally ask me if Aaron Sanchez has a role in the Jays bullpen or rotation, I’d likely hem and haw.  By the way, Hem and Haw sounds like Country Western cartoon characters.  “Did you see the one where Hem and Haw brought a ruler to line dancing?  I nearly guffawed out of my boots!”  What I’m saying is I have no idea if Sanchez will be in the rotation all year, and if I had to guess, I’d say he won’t.  Too much riding on the Jays season and too many long men in the pen, and, no, they didn’t sign Chris Young.  I have a feeling the Jays rotation will come down to Sanchez, Hutchison, Floyd and Jesse Chavez vying for the fifth spot with Sanchez winning for at least a few months.  2016 Projections:  8-9/3.46/1.24/110 in 130 IP

77. Juan Nicasio – “With my last trick, I will make Paul Simon six-feet tall, while throwing a 94 MPH fastball with pinpoint control.”  Then Ray Searage waved a fancy-style cape in front of the audience.  It didn’t block their gaze, but it was such an exotic-looking garment, they were distracted enough to not notice a six-foot tall Paul Simon walk onto stage, towering over Art Garfunkel.  Simon then threw a brushback pitch while singing Home Plate Bound.  Prior, of course, Searage made the seemingly all-over-the-map, Juan Nicasio, into an ace.  Or at least an ace in spring training.  Do I believe Nicasio is fixed because of some spring training stats?  Actually, yeah, he could be, and is worth a flyer.  Last year, he averaged 95 MPH on his fastball, and his undoing was always his control, which Searage has helped with other pitchers.  Bring Searage your stuff, and he’ll make it work.  2016 Projections:  8-10/3.81/1.33/148 in 165 IP

78. Rich Hill – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed by the A’s.  We need a sniglet for a reclamation project pitcher who is hideous for ten years, then has a great season of less than 30 innings and is signed by Billy Beane, making him an immediate sleeper for next year.  I’m going with re-tried Beanes.  Since 2005, Hill has had exactly one season over 60 IP thrown and that was in 2007.  Sorry if those re-tried Beanes are giving me gas.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Nothing’s obviously changed since I wrote that, but I considered that for the right price, I would draft Hill.  I still don’t expect much of anything, and it seems like a lot of other people want to draft him earlier than this, so bygones and whatnot on that.  Bygones and whatnot on that because he’s thrown more than 60IP once in his career, nine years ago, and he’s going to be 36 years old.  I mean, c’mon, we’re not realistic about our chances in reality, but we can be realistic about our chances in fantasy.  2016 Projections: 7-3/3.24/1.22/105 in 90 IP

79. Nathan Eovaldi – Okay, yeah, we got burned by this guy last year.  And some of us were even burned in 2014.  Well, as Al Gore once said, “The future is what you make it, like I made the Internet.”  Eovaldi, or as Rachel Ray calls him EVOO, was not necessarily that bad last year.  And ‘not necessarily’ is a lanscape architect’s favorite phrase to do some hedging.  EVOO wasn’t necessarily good either with his 4.20 ERA — stoner!  His velocity continues to rise, which is no small feat like a bowling alley that doesn’t cater to dwarves.  He already had a 95.7 MPH fastball, and last year it went up to 96.7 on average.  That was the 2nd highest velocity in the majors after Syndergaard for pitchers with 150 IP.  Of course, he has been a velocitease his entire career with only a 7.1 K/9 last year.  I’d gamble he finally puts it together with his 96 MPH fastball, but I wouldn’t gamble much as his ranking here testifies.  And I might be the first white person to use testifies casually in a sentence outside of Quentin Tarantino.  2016 Projections:  13-7/3.86/1.36/157 in 190 IP

80. Jimmy Nelson – I should’ve just called this tier, “Damn there’s a lot of young pitchers that can throw fast.  Oh, and Rich Hill.”  Nelson touches 94 with his fastball and has a great slider.  It’s dominant.  Which makes one wonder, why does he only throw it 17% of the time.  Then again, maybe that’s why it worked.  He reduced usage of the pitch from 25% of the time in 2014, but it’s effectiveness shot up.  I guess what I’m really saying is why can’t Ryan Hanigan catch every pitcher in this tier?  2016 Projections:  11-14/3.91/1.27/160 in 185 IP

 
  1. Ante GALIC says:
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    Grey!!!

    What’s up, man? Hope all is good.

    a. My mousepad/touchpad on my new ACER laptop stopped working. So I had to use the tab key through all the hyperlinks to post a comment. Am exhausted! I’ll figure it out or I won’t.

    b. Some good pitchers to be had here very late in the draft when everything is a crapshoot.

    c. I have Velasquez as my second-to-last pick in a redraft points league. Do you think Karns, Erasmo or Paxton have more value? I guess I’ll wait and see what the pre-season brings injuries etc.

    d. My next three drafts are planned for late March and April 1 (no foolin’). Just wanted to try an early draft for kicks.

    Cheers,
    Ante

    • Plies says:
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      @Ante GALIC:

      a) hopefully, you don’t
      b) doesn’t matter b/c you get Harper, Rizzo, and Machado in the first three rounds
      c) he literally just ranked all those guys…
      d) just make sure you get the Trout, Goldy, and Arenado on every team

      • Jason E. says:
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        @Plies: Kinda pathetic how much his squad that he posted yesterday bothers you buddy.

      • Malicious Phenom says:
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        @Plies: STFU!! You come on here outta of nowhere to rip a quality razzball commentator, who has posted QUALITY baseball info on here for years..

        Show some respect you troll!!!

        • Jason E. says:
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          @Malicious Phenom: I was not trying to rip him. Just an opinion to someone who does post really good content that it’s odd to waste the time being upset about a non competitive league. I’m definitely not trying to troll. I will stay out of stuff until I become more an established poster. Btw, Malicious Phenom, I actually really respect your insight on baseball. As I mentioned in a post a few down, I have read the blog for awhile now just don’t post. No hard feelings toward anyone.

      • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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        @Plies: every year some twit shows up to F with Ante simply since he’s earliest poster, just a heart full of hate.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ante GALIC: A. You will, I have faith in you B. Yup C. Can hold him for now D. Cool

      • Ante GALIC says:
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        @Grey: Grey! Thanks, man.

        a. Need to contact a technical specialist in-country. Hopefully they fix it. It’s under warranty until July 2017 so whatever they need to do, they can do it. I’ll do it tomorrow.

        c. Will hold VinceV until the beginning of the season. Hopefully he’ll be the #5.

        Cheers,
        Ante

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          A. Lucky you’re not in Zambia B. Or until spring training games, at least

          • Ante GALIC says:
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            @Grey: Hey, Grey! Just to let you know that everything is ok with my mouse / touchpad. Downloaded drivers from the ACER home page is everything is tip-top! Thanks for the vote of confidence.

            Cheers,
            Ante

            • Malicious Phenom says:
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              @Ante GALIC: good job man!

              • Ante GALIC says:
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                @Malicious Phenom: Ty, MP! Hope all is good for you.

                Cheers,
                Ante

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nice!

  2. phennore says:
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    Keeper question. 18-team 5×5 with $260 cap. Would you trade Reddick ($9) for Encarnacion ($32)? My other hitting keepers are:

    Trout ($24)
    Piscotty ($11)
    Lindor ($8)
    Either Kettle Marte ($7) or Justin Turner ($6)

    • Malicious Phenom says:
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      @phennore: Trade for E5 and keep K.Marte

    • danny almonte says:
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      @Phil:

      This is great for razzball readers who cant read

      • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
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        @danny almonte: i’m betting illiterates have better resources.

  3. Lincecuminmypants says:
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    These rankings have me psyched for my pitchers. Through drafting and minor leaguer keepers rights I have Archer (6th round), Cole (10th), Harvey (12th) and Syndergaard (15th). Given those four, I would think I can wait it out at the drafy and augment with a few guys from this tier, correct?

      • Lincecuminmypants says:
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        @Grey: Sweet. Thanks!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  4. DBo says:
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    Dynasty league, option of Urias & Myers or option of Soler & Appel? Thanks!

    • Jason E. says:
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      @DBo: I would prefer Urias side.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @DBo: Myers

      • FrankGrimes says:
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        @Grey:

        Are you at 3 or 6 nic these days?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          3…What other flavors did they have that you recommend? I don’t like anything menthol

          • FrankGrimes says:
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            @Grey:
            They have a shit load of brands
            If u wanna take a peak or trust
            My judgement…
            I know you like the fruits. Hehe.

            Or check out velvet cloud vapor instead.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like fruits, yeah… Okay, it’ll be fun to be surprised! Thanks!

  5. Tweak says:
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    With a rotation of:

    Syndergaard, Stroman, Gausman, McCullers, T. Walker, Matz, Smyly and Garcia

    Do you drop Garcia or others for any of:

    Buchholz, Cashner, Kennedy, J. Ross, Karns, Shoemaker, Nola, D. Norris, Tropeano, Velasquez, Glasnow, Berrios, Snell, or Taillon?

    I feel like I’m a bit upside-y, but with a pile of SP depth out there, digging into the drop/add pile later and trying to be first on guys like Berrios at call-up might be the best way to go.

    • Malicious Phenom says:
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      @Tweak: I’d go Nola, dude, He has a proven track record in MLB, Berrios not so much..

      • Moscowitz says:
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        @Malicious Phenom: Nola has a proven track record in MLB? lol. Buchholz, Shoemaker, Kennedy, Cashner dont?

        So lets get this one right. Grey is not recommending Nola because he has a “proven track record in the MLB” but solely because of the upside factor. Nola simply has more upside than the rest. Nolas track record in the MLB is insignificant, its about 77 IPs. Thats all he has under his belt.

        • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
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          @Moscowitz: he appeared to be only comparing nola to berrios MLB track record-wise, not the whole list of guys with clearly more innings.

  6. ChefBoyRG54 says:
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    Now that i have an avatar i feel obligated to post more. Sorry in advance

    If i didnt read this article, i woudlnt have known that Rich Hill is playing still…or alive, so thats a relief!

    Beings Nathan Eovaldi is liekly a regular reader of yours by now, him seeing a projected full season of his was ranked below Hill’s partial season must have him questioning his career. And then he catches a glimpse of Rick Porcello and the peasants rejoice

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @ChefBoyRG54: You know the avatar is great, but I’m not sure it matches the username

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @ChefBoyRG54: It makes me think of Caitlyn’s coming out Vanity Fair cover with a Boy name

      • SwaggerJackers says:
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        @Grey: Agreed! A chick’s picture with a name of “ChefBoy” sets off all kinds of tranny alarms.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, something feels off

          • ChefBoyRG54 says:
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            @Grey: maybe im playing weird science , but with the older, more attractive Kelly Le Brock

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like the addition of the chef’s hat, the Boy in the name still lowers my nethers a little

              • ChefBoyRG54 says:
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                @Grey: its a chef boyardee hat(allegedly, to avoid any trademark bs).

                Wanted to complicate matters so we can focus on baseball and less on the fact that now Kelly can cook up some Cevapi and tickle a pickle at the same time

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  It feels like it’s Caitlyn Jenner from the waist down, but I’ll go with it

                  • ChefBoyRG54 says:
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                    @Grey: youre really caught up on the caitlyn thing. thought his name was bruce but what do i know.

  7. Clint says:
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    One thing I annually struggle w/in these rankings is how to translate the tiers into round estimations so I max out the values. Any suggestions or am I looking at this the wrong way, Grey?

    • FKA Ralph says:
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      @Clint: he will do a top 400 list with all players, and he does a SP draft strategy write-up. Last year they did a tool where you could put in your first SP and it would map out a recommended list to draft.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Clint: I’ll be doing a top 500

      • Tigres says:
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        500. 500? 500!!!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Bam!

      • ChefBoyRG54 says:
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        @Grey: thats deep. Im guessing Rickey Henderson makes the cut then for guys that may take a flyer? Still got to be 25 steal upside, right?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I bet he could steal 25 bases this year, totally

          • ChefBoyRG54 says:
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            @Grey: makes me more comfortable than drafting Hunter Pence. More because i dont want to see his picture every time i read an update, but you get the point…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Ha

  8. Justin says:
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    Good morning sir,

    Thank you for your hard work putting these ranking together and for everything else you do! It provides insight and humor to the masses. I do have a quick question.

    In a 12 team h2h league 6×6 qs and ops are the extra cats. We keep 7. I traded away my 3 4 6 7 rd picks to try and win a title last year. Looking for advice on how to approach the draft. We play one util slot and one extra infield slot.

    I’m keeping : Bryant cargo(col) Pederson fielder tulo cano and grienke.

    In rounds one and two would you go best hitter in rd 1 best pitcher rd 2 then fill it out from there. Or go hitting in rd 1 and 2 then fill out the rotation late.

    Current mocks have a lot of talent way down the draft board. Thanks for taking he time. Look forward to seeing your thoughts. Enjoy a drink or smoke on me!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Justin: Depends who the best hitter or pitcher is, likely hitter

  9. Jon says:
    (link)

    Keep forever league (no costs). Would you deal Arenado and Pederson for Bogaerts and Polanco?

    • Jason E. says:
      (link)

      @Jon: I would not. I also have a weird obsession with Nolan though. Maybe it’s because I am a tigers fan and I have had the pleasure of watching Brandon Inge, Wilson Betetmit, Jack Hannahan, and Nick Castellanos in the past few years. Ugh, that is terrible.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jon: No

  10. Grey,

    Keep forever Obp Slg 15 teams:

    Give Jansen Blackmon get Donaldson

  11. Nick D says:
    (link)

    @Grey (or anyone else),

    Need some keeper league help. 12 Team League. I have 5th overall pick.

    So far my keepers are:

    Rendon – 12th Round
    Pollock – 9th Round
    Gerrit Cole – 15th Round
    Matt Harvey – 11th Round
    Andrew Miller – 16th Round

    I can fit in two more keepers if needed:

    Patrick Corbin for a 13th Round Pick and Marcus Stroman for a 14th Rd pick.

    Should I keep Corbin and/or Stroman? Also, is Andrew Miller worth a 16th rd pick even though he isnt the closer anymore.

    Thanks!
    Nick

      • Nick D says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Thanks Grey! Should I keep Miller for a 16th?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Not really worth keeping

  12. Jason E. says:
    (link)

    Long time reader, but I don’t post much. Just wanted to say thanks for the rankings and insight! I also enjoy the narrative before the rankings as well!

      • ERad says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Classic Jason, what a nice guy!

  13. Michael says:
    (link)

    Not really appropriate given the theme here, but I’m wondering who is the better keeper for the next 2-3 years (let’s say positional issues are irrelevant):
    – Bogaerts
    – C. Seager
    – Sano
    Thank you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Seager

  14. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    I mentioned this a little yesterday but check this out…

    As starter last year this guy threw 90.1 innings with an 8.47 K/9 and 1.89 BB/9. Whip was .99. ERA was 3.49 as he was burned by the HR ball. So you look at those peripherals and you go hmmmm.

    So that’s Jimmy Nelson’s home split. His road numbers? 6.52 k/9, 4.76 BB/9. Wait what the….

    You can understand different results home/road but this guy seems like a completely different pitcher. Strike throwing machine in MIL and Carlos Marmol everywhere else.

    Also, I am really interested to see what Rich Hill does. I have this weird feeling that he’s going to be another very successful A’s reclamation project.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Who are these other A’s reclamation projects? Felix Doubront? That’s really odd about Nelson’s splits, but I think it can be looked at negatively too with how much worse he could be at home, about as bad as he was on the road

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Kazmir, Bartolo come to mind on the pitching side. More on the offense side too.

        I scouted Nelson on film and he looks more like the home guy. Really a deeper league guy at this point but I do kind of like him.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Feels cherrypicking on the A’s…Just as many guys do nothing there… But whatever the case with the A’s turning guys around, Hill has already turned his peripherals around but he can’t stay on the field, or at least hasn’t…

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Yeah I’m not really trying to make a point about the A’s being superior at resurrecting guys. They do try it pretty frequently though of course because of payroll.

            I’m definitely overly influenced by having watched every pitch Hill threw last year. His stuff was hypnotic.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              If you came back from the future and said Hill will throw 180 IP, I’d draft him on every team… It just seems so unlikely that he throws more than 120 IP

              • GhostTownSteve says:
                (link)

                @Grey:

                If I came back from the future I’d still be in Vegas squandering all the money I made betting on Denver on Sunday.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  My in-laws made money on the game cause they’re Manning fans (fannings?)

                  • GhostTownSteve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey:

                    I fail to see how anybody could be a Peyton Manning fan.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      They’re from Indiana

        • The Great Knoche says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: All about the walks for Nelson. Has been that way even in the minors. He’ll have a good stretch of control games and then wammo!

          There were some stretches where he would have a 9+ k/9 and then pair it up with a 6-7 BB/9. Not anyone I’m touching.

    • Vegans says:
      (link)

      @GhostTownSteve: There were some interesting nuggets re: Jimmy Nelson on the Fangraphs podcast yesterday.

      • GhostTownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Vegans:

        What did they say…save me the trouble of wading through all Cistulli’s wit.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          It’s almost as robust as his Wikipedia page

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Grey:

            Wooooo, never been to that page before. I’m very tempted to provide some guerrilla editing.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Haha, you should!

        • Vegans says:
          (link)

          @GhostTownSteve: Cliff notes version: 3.75 to 4.25 era makes him serviceable nut not targetable; his use of CV, 4- seam, and slider may offer upside; needs better command of FB; SL vs right=0HR/SL vs left 5HR; CB &SL may offer upside if he can throw them with better command during nonCB & SL counts

          • Vegans says:
            (link)

            @Vegans: but not nut

          • GhostTownSteve says:
            (link)

            @Vegans:

            He throws that spike curve. The stuff looks very legit. I like him in a deep league where pitching is at a premium.

            I could see a little break out.

  15. JeF WiTh 1 F says:
    (link)

    Good Morning Boo….Pick a side any side (Dynasty)

    Severino, Iwakuma and Starlin OR Carrasco, Quintana and Ozuna

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      What’s up F? Gotta go Marte

      • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
        (link)

        @Grey: My bad thats Castro

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh! Right no G from F…. Then Carrasco side

          • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Yeah i feel its close though..Im with you on castro, i like him this year

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Yeah, agreed, but I don’t get the sense a ton of others love him so he’ll have some bargain-ness (totally a word!)

              • JeF WiTh 1 F says:
                (link)

                @Grey: Word!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  You word!

  16. dk says:
    (link)

    Are Franco and Odor worth keeping at $15 each?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      In some leagues

  17. GhostTownSteve says:
    (link)

    I can’t shake the idea that this is going to be a fantastic year for Buchholz. Eno Saris wrote about his “new change up” back in May. Went back and looked at the tape and it is as advertised. He has a ridiculously good pitch mix and feel for all of them.

    Yeah yeah yeah…he’s gonna get hurt.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t mind Buchholz at all, I think he’s going to be a guy that is not spectacular but worth owning at the back of staffs… Red Sox bullpen is so great that there’s gonna be quite few 15 game winners there

      • SwaggerJackers says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Yeah, Bucky is a guy I figured you’d be higher on based on in-season blurbs last year.

        I’ll probably end up drafting one of Jamie Garcia or Rich Hill on a lot of teams. They’ll be easy to drop if they get hurt but if they’re healthy, what’s the harm in playing them?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No harm, except while you have Garcia or Hill, Velasquez breaks out on someone else’s team

  18. 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,
    Looking to lock up my last keeper in a 10 team OBP/QS league, which one would you go with ?

    Ian Desmond * (Was – SS) Round 18

    Or

    Michael Brantley (Cle – OF) Round 20

    Other keepers are
    Max Scherzer (Was – SP) Round 6
    José Bautista (Tor – OF) Round 16
    Patrick Corbin (Ari – SP) FA
    Anthony Rizzo (ChC – 1B)FA
    Kolten Wong (StL – 2B)FA
    Sonny Gray (Oak – SP) FA

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Brantley

      • 2 Cups 1 Braun says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        gracias muchacho

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          De nada

  19. danny almonte says:
    (link)

    Anyone have guesses when Espn leagues will be back up?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Guessing within the week

    • SwaggerJackers says:
      (link)

      @danny almonte: I think they’re usually down for about 2 weeks so probably next week.

    • Cheese Eating Surrender Monkey says:
      (link)

      @danny almonte: i read somewhere it’s the 14th.

  20. SwaggerJackers says:
    (link)

    “Damn there’s a lot of young pitchers that can throw fast. Oh, and Rich Hill.”

    Ha! I like it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hehe

      • SwaggerJackers says:
        (link)

        @Grey: You’re funny man! I’d have a beer with you if you ever came back to Cleveland. I’m assuming the traveling show with Nick was a one and done?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, one and done

        • Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
          (link)

          @SwaggerJackers: kinda has to be with Nick not here anymore, and he left only like 2 months after that traveling show. I was one of about 9 guys there in my city. Him and Sky were real cool though (Sky wasn’t given free booze, no gas station bathroom scenes)

  21. Corey says:
    (link)

    Anibal Sanchez is tagged in this post but wasn’t mentioned — and hasn’t been in the rankings so far. Has he fallen into your top (bottom?) 100?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, he was in this post, but then I bumped him down prior to posting

  22. #BlackmonMatters says:
    (link)

    I know you aren’t huge into rookie pitchers, but you said Giolito has Cy Young Potential. Should you wait and pick him up or you think you should draft him?

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’ll rank him tomorrow

      • Copperhead Road says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Nats don’t seem all that interested in starting him off in the majors. Can’t deny his stuff but if they jerk him around he might be only mildly useful this year. Roark could go back to the bullpen though.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Agreed

  23. Copperhead Road says:
    (link)

    Keep owning Bauer each year waiting for him to figure it out. This year I’m done with him (so of course he’ll do well) Great post as usual. Don’t really see a C Mart in this bunch though- unless you mean guys that do well but don’t make it through the year. Lots of them.

  24. George says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    Need your help: 5×5 head to head 12 team
    Protect 7
    Goldsmidt/Arenado/altuve/Blackmon/Kluber/Kuechel/Cueto
    That’s my ranking order….do I switch Puig for Cueto?

    Thanks
    George

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Puig there

  25. ERad says:
    (link)

    So I have the big 3-0 birthday coming up later this month – and the fiance surprised me on Friday with a weekend trip to Kentucky to visit my homeboy who is overachieving as an oncologist there. Surprised as in, dropped off at the airport with no prior knowledge (I couldn’t even pack any edibles!)

    Pretty awesome, right? Wrong. I’ve been riding this post-engagement ‘hand’ in the relationship, and now I have no ‘hand’. Great present in theory, but just like that I’m back to square one sitting through Girls episodes and eating quinoa salad.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha! Wait, you lost a hand? I have to change my wedding toast

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nice pull… Always surprises me when you pull clips from the whitest of the white shows

          • nick the dick says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Ha oh c’mon! Seinfeld is my favorite show of all time. I can see me pulling a Friends episode again…i’m the whitest blackish white guy you know!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              After myself, of course

  26. Mike B says:
    (link)

    While I impatiently await your top 400 I am in need of some keeper strategy advice. The obvious must is to keep hitting over pitching, but my question is at what point does this approach force you to draft pitching a little higher than your redraft ranks? Allow me to elaborate; 30 of your top 40 pitchers are already kept (we keep a round previous to draft position, increasing by 1 each season), if my league has swallowed the pitching pool can I really afford to punt it to the extent that you would suggest, and I would agree, in redraft? Or is it more of trying to balance the starting pitching value by using draft picks instead of keeper slots to own the players? For instance, I’m considering taking sale at 8 over possibly an Edwin (based on best available) because I may be stuck with a tier 3 guy as best available by my pick in 3rd round. Just curious as to how the strategy may adjust, or not, with keeper leagues having different player pools.

    Also, trying to move Kluber for Xander, approve?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You need to draft a pitching staff, whether that means having an ace and a #2 in your keepers or drafting them early

  27. JoeCool says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    I noticed Rudy’s Auction value rankings and your Top Player Ratings don’t quite match up. I know the auction values just tell what a player will be worth based on your projections, but would you adhere to the Auction values or your rankings when looking for an auction draft guide.

    e.g. You have Arenado ranked 7th ahead of Bryant, but he is 15th in the auction value rankings and behind both Machado and Bryant.

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Huh? I have Arenado at $42 and Bryant at $39… Bryant is 9th overall and Arenado is 7th

      • JoeCool says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Hm I guess I was trying to find all of your values in one place, so i looked here:

        http://razzball.com/playerrater-preseason-yahoomlb12/

        but that doesn’t seem to match up to what you just linked me. where am i going wrong haha? and how can i find a full list of your values for various leagues (i usually play a 6×6 OPS and QS)

        • JoeCool says:
          (link)

          @JoeCool:

          Maybe my mistake is that those are purely Rudy’s? I thought they were a reflection of your projections

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          That’s b/c that’s Rudy’s Steamer projections, not mine…

          • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
            (link)

            @Grey: i’m guessing those Grey projections will have pitchers added once you’ve finished pitcher rankings posts?

  28. Matty says:
    (link)

    Maybe i am getting ahead of myself because i haven’t seen you rank either of these guys. For my keeper league I have a very shallow pool too pick from for keepers. I was planning on keeping cueto but do you think darvish might be a better keep? Other than cueto i could consider Beltre, maybe steven matz?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d keep Matz

  29. The Grand Poppy says:
    (link)

    I’m pretty sure I know what you will say, but I need to bounce this trade off of you.

    10 team standard roto:

    Upton + Picks 58, 62, 78, 82, 98
    for
    Stanton + Picks 108, 113, 128, 133, 148

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Stanton

  30. Cram It says:
    (link)

    Grey, remember when you responded to comments in one bulk response because you couldn’t directly @ each one? So you had like 20 @’s in one post? Remember what the last year was you had to do that? Point of reference for me…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I wanna say 2010

  31. The great knoche says:
    (link)

    Surprised Cram hasn’t jumped in yet to tell you how much you have undervalued Nate Karns!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha!

    • Cram It says:
      (link)

      @The great knoche: I think he’s quite finely rated! In all my marketing for him last year, if I would have said Grey will have him ranked around Teheran, Gio, Buccholz and Ryu in 2016, I would have been tarred and feathered.

      • I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
        (link)

        @Cram It: as year went on less and less people would have called you crazy for saying over teheran, maybe gio too.

  32. Moscowitz says:
    (link)

    Which side?

    A: Machado, Kinsler, Belt
    B: Trout, Bogaerts

    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Trout

  33. Tigres says:
    (link)

    Listening to podcast (Awesome). Grey, dios mio – you were so so so close on giving up on Segura this year. Don’t let him reel you back in! Agreed on Arcia – “he’s not coming up” = GM speak for “good late round stash”.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, yup

  34. Cram It says:
    (link)

    Oh man, have you ever seen What We Do in the Shadows with the guy from Flight of the Conchords? It has arguably the funniest line I’ve ever heard uttered in a movie.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      What’s the line?

      • Cram It says:
        (link)

        @Grey: It’s a mockumentary about vampire life. When asked why vampires prefer virgin blood, he says matter-of-factly, “I think of it like this, if you were going to eat a sandwich, you would just enjoy it more if you knew no one had fucked it.”

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          HA! That is good

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Oh, and never saw it

    • goodfold2 says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: i didn’t know those dudes made a movie, nice.

  35. Savoy Special says:
    (link)

    Took your advice and waited, and waited … and waited like I was Justin Long and Ryan Reynolds at Shenaniganz. Filled out my lineup before I even considered a starter. And then in rounds 12-16 I got:

    12. (136) Lance McCullers SP
    13. (153) José Quintana SP
    14. (160) Jake Odorizzi SP
    15. (177) Kyle Hendricks SP
    16. (184) Steven Matz SP

    And picked up Smyly in the 18th and Nola in the 21st.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I don’t trust your competitors knew what they were doing, but nice staff

      • Savoy Special says:
        (link)

        It’s not my fault the don’t read Razzball.

  36. CMUTimmah says:
    (link)

    I just want to say after last year I hate Jimmy Nelson.

    Actually, we aren’t friends at all, so I’m not going to give him the familiar sounding name.

    I hate James Nelson.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha!

  37. 'Saul Gooood, Man says:
    (link)

    Saul checking in.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hey, Saul

  38. matt says:
    (link)

    which side do you prefer
    Gregory Polanco and Rodon or Giles and Sano..$ being even but Sano eligible for keeper next year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Polanco

  39. Lougle says:
    (link)

    I’m in a dynasty league with Cole and Syndergaard locked in at $7 combined. The league has a typical $260 auction budget. How would you allocate auction dollars on filling out a pitching staff [assuming a 70%/30% split for hitting/pitching]? Maybe one “21-40” type and two “41-80” types? Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, 70/30

  40. nick the dick says:
    (link)

    Dude this roast is going to be bonkers

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I know you won’t let me down

      • nick the dick says:
        (link)

        @Grey: just when I think i’m out of bullets in the chamber, I reload. I have some good material.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          You’re like Machine Gun Kelly of putdowns and snaps!

      • nick the dick says:
        (link)

        @Grey: No idea what they can say about me though. Jokes about how awesome and cool and handsome I am?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          They’ll prolly go with old standby of a house husband…

  41. Montezuma's Revenge... right now says:
    (link)

    in a league (roto) 15 teamer, with all of these extra stats, BB’s, K’s, hits, XBH and other pitcher stuff i had thought my 4 keepers to be rizzo/jones/arrieta/altuve. but would i be better off with heyward (also counts as CF now in yahoo) over jones, or are jones’ more HR still worth enough to keep him over heyward? league has 1 each specific OF spot, 1 any OF spot, 1 util.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, Heyward

  42. Keeper Obp 15 teams:

    Pollock and Frasier vs Miggy and S Miller

    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
      (link)

      @Nightpandas: hitter side easily.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Frazier side

    • Malicious Phenom says:
      (link)

      @Nightpandas: Pollock & Frazier

  43. What about Lester & Pollock for Miggy or Lester & Frasier for Miggy

    • @Nightpandas: trying to see what I can get for Miggy as I have Rizzo as well.

      Option 3 would be Miggy for Ellsbury and Degrom

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Pollock for Miggy is fine

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Frazier is okay if you’re giving away Miggy

  44. I got $100 for groceries, $1400 for liquor, and $6,000 for you to bail a couple of shit puppets out of jail says:
    (link)

    league in which i have to keep 2, and for this year that price comes at where the player was drafted last year (by me or whoever drafted him). for succeeding years cost is whatever the end of preseason ADP rank of that player was in fantasy pros (average across major sites for larger sample size). So if keep Buxton in 2017 he’ll be his 2016 end of preseason ADP round (right now he’s at 195 or so, so he’d be a 13th rounder in 2017 for a 16 team league). 16 team roto that gives extra stats for OPS/slugging/OBP/steals %. options are for this year (we’ll likely have 3 or more keepers for next year)
    franco (28th round, not drafted)
    buxton (26th round)
    c.seager (28th round, not drafted)
    ortiz (3rd)
    gotta think seager is one of these.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Franco, Seager

  45. ryan says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey,

    I wanted to ask you for some advice in a shallow 12 team head to head keeper league. No penalties for keeping players. We are only allowed to keep 5 players. I am having trouble with the 5th player.

    1. Trout
    2. Harper
    3. Goldy
    4. Correa
    5. Either Stanton, Donaldson, or Jose Fernandez

    I could go for power or hold on to an elite pitcher. What player would you choose?

    • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
      (link)

      @ryan: your keepers are shallow for an 8 team league there. i’m guessing he would go with best overall player, stanton. it definitely won’t be jofer, and only would be son of donald since you already have 2 OF’ers.

Comments are closed.