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The wait has been overbearing… The anticipation in the air… palpable.  I almost typoed Palpatine.  Which is what you loyal starting pitcher-aficionados probably think of me!

We had a start pushed back.  We had me an unbelieving heathen.  Then Memorial Day!  Plus my near-descent into the inability to get out of bed when I watched Yordano Ventura‘s start the other day – saw him torched, velo fall, and taken out early.  Now we get “valgus extension overload” which sounds like some sort of Eastern European sex move…

But alas!  We’ve finally gotten here.  A Pitcher Profile wholly dedicated to Dallas Keuchel, as he continues to rock-m sock-m robot opposing hitters.  Did I just make that a verb?  Yup!  Add yet another complete game to his docket (very nearly three in a row), and he’s easily become the flashiest, out-of-nowhere add to legions of fantasy squads.  But is he a guy to cut at the first sign of danger?  To try and sell high?  Let’s take a looksy at his start this past Sunday where he went the distance against the Mariners:

First Inning: Keuchel’s first pitch is a fastball for a strike taken to James Jones.  Apparently he hates being newly acquired by the Raiders so much, he decided to try some MLB!  Slider is outside, again outside, then a two-seamer at 89 on the hands gets a pretty sharp grounder right to first, one down.  Stefen Romero fouls off a fastball, another is outside, then a loopy, 78 MPH slider that hung a tad in the top of the zone gets a very weak grounder to second, two down.  Keuchel zips in a fastball, and Robinson Cano for some reason shows bunt then pulls back, but it was in there 0-1. Fastball low, really establishing that pitch, then his best on the day is a four-seamer at 91 on the knees, 1-2.

Keuchel-4seam

Keuchel bounces a slider low, then another 91 MPH heater on the outside edge gets Cano to chop it weakly right back to him, for an easy groundout to the pitcher.  Typical Keuchel – three groundball outs to start the game.

Second Inning: A perfect fastball pours in the zone to Justin Smoak, he then bounces a slider – hasn’t found the feel on that one yet – then another two-seamer is right in there, 1-2.

Keuchel-2seam

Man, that two-seamer has some great movement on it.  Four-seam at 90 MPH is low by a mere inch, slider bends in on the hands and gets tapped foul, then a fastball perfectly on the inside corner gets a K looking, one down.  Four-seamer in there to Kyle Seager, perfect slider is taken right on the knees on the outside corner, two-seamer on the hands is nipped foul, fastball is just off the plate – 1-2.  Then a perfect slider, almost identical to the 0-1 pitch, gets Seager way out in front, second K.

Keuchel-Slider

Up is Mike Zunino, who takes the first-pitch two-seamer and lines it to left for a single.  That one didn’t have the sink and was up in the zone, so a mistake there.  Two-seamer is in there to Michael Saunders, four-seam is outside, then a slider that hung a tad at 78 and stays in the zone gets laced to right for a solidly hit single, and it’s runners on first and second.  Two mistake pitches there, and the Mariners took advantage of both.  So Keuchel has to bear down, and gets a cutter in there to Cole Gillespie, then it looked like he hit the same exact spot with the slider but doesn’t get the call, 1-1.  A big swing-and-miss on the two-seamer makes it 1-2, a change-up dips low, another slider trying to backdoor him barely is off the black, full count.  So the 3-2 pitch is a slider, it hung a bit and was out of the zone, but Gillespie taps it down the third base line – Keuchel has to make a quick play, but is way off with the throw to first, Zunino is able to score on the pitcher’s error, and Saunders gets to third, Gillespie to second, and it’s 1-0 Astros.  Gotta love that errors on the pitcher still make them unearned runs!  Keuchel needing to mitigate the damage, and the first-pitch two-seamer is tapped weakly to second by Brad Miller, and Keuchel is quickly out of the inning only allowing the one unearned run.

Third Inning: Back to the top of the order, and a fastball is in there to Jones, two-seamer dips low, then a slider gets tapped very weakly back to him for another weak groundout.  A hanging first-pitch slider to Romero is hit pretty hard to center, but Dexter Fowler is there a few feet in front of the track for an easy out, two down on three pitches.  And the first pitch to Cano is a fastball outside, but Cano still muscles it hard for a line drive, but Marwin Gonzalez leaps and snares it for the final out.  Wow, five pitches – three outs.

Fourth Inning: At 39 pitches, Keuchel is all the sudden looking great with the pitch count after that speedy third, and misses low with the cutter, then in there with the two-seam, then slider low, 2-1 on Smoak.  Four-seam is low, then a hanging slider that stays low is reached for and flares out to left, one down.  Wow, that was a mistake and Smoak really had to reach for it… Smoak looking awful on that swing there, especially on a 3-1 pitch.  First-pitch slider to Seager is cut through and missed, then a fastball gets banged right to Altuve for an easy groundout, two down.  Keuchel starts Zunino with a change-up and he misses, then surprisingly goes to it again, and Zunino misses again, 0-2.  Good confidence with that pitch there, haven’t seen but one or two until now.  And he goes to it again and Zunino grounds it extremely weakly to third to end the inning.

Fifth Inning: Still down 1-0, Keuchel starts Saunders with the slider and it’s flown out weakly to left, one down.  Man, Keuchel since that long 2nd is absolutely cruising.  A two-seamer is just outside to Gillespie, then is right on the black with the same pitch, a 78 MPH slider dips barely low, then another two-seamer gets a hack and miss, 2-2.  Then another slider goes into the dirt, but Gillespie tries for it and misses, and the K is completed to first, two down.  So 3 Ks for Keuchel, and he’s in there to Miller with the four-seam, slider low, four-seam outside, then two-seamer eats up Miller – sounded like it broke his bat – and it’s flared right to Keuchel who makes the easy catch right to him.  Another quickie.

Sixth Inning: Now protecting a 2-1 lead after a George Springer HR (man, how good has he been lately!?), and Keuchel is outside to Jones, then a really good looking slider at 79 barely misses outside, 2-0.  Haven’t seen many, if any, 2-0 counts.  Two-seam is in there, then Jones bunts one foul, and another slider in the dirt gets Jones to swing through it, and another K is completed to first for Keuchel’s 4th.  First-pitch change-up to Romero is outside, then a really really nasty one on the outside lower black gets Romero unable to check his swing, 1-1.

Keuchel-Change

Another change-up is outside, then a fastball is grounded weakly to second, two down.  How many weak groundouts have there been?!  Sheesh.  Cano takes a four-seam outside, Keuchel bends a slider in there, fastball tapped foul, slider in the dirt is taken, then another slider that probably was in the zone gets a foul tip into the mitt for Keuchel’s 5th K.

Seventh Inning: Another 2-run homer gives Keuchel a 4-1 lead, and his 73rd pitch is a two-seamer in there, high with the slider, fastball low, cutter inside, and the 3-1 is lined by Smoak hard to first, but it’s right to Marc Krauss for the first out.  That one was really lucky because a shift was on and Smoak was the only one in the vicinity, and it happened to find his glove on a rocket.  First-pitch two-seamer is on the black to Seager, a good slider is barely outside, then a fastball is grounded toward the right side gap, and it’s past Jose Altuve for a single.  That one wasn’t hit too hard and found a hole, so Keuchel’s good luck on the first out goes to bad luck on that hit.  A change-up is fouled by Zunino, another change barely low, then an 88 MPH two-seamer is chopped weakly to second and Altuve makes the unassisted double play.  Cruise control!

Eighth Inning: At 84 pitches, things are smitten for Keuchel who is in there with the two-seam to Saunders, barely outside, again just off the paint, then another two-seamer tapped foul, 2-2.  After four fastballs, the slider sweeps across the zone and Saunders swings through it, 6th K.  Change-up is in there to Gillespie, cutter doesn’t quite cut enough on the outside corner for a ball, then a nasty, and I mean nasty change-up gets a swing-and-miss, 1-2.  Slider in the dirt is taken, fastball low, full count.  Keuchel goes to the change-up – has a lot of confidence with that pitch – and it’s nubbed very weakly to first and tossed to Keuchel covering for the second out.  Miller takes a slider outside, slashes a two-seamer foul, then a slider is then very weakly nudged to third, and the easy play is made to end the inning.

Ninth Inning: So going for the complete at 98 pitches, a two-seamer is on the corner to Jones 0-1, slider is low, then a cutter on the outside corner is rocketed to the mound… And this might be the luckiest out I’ve seen all year – it ricochets off Keuchel’s foot, and somehow deflects perfectly to Jesus Guzman now at first, who has to take one step on first for the out.  The best way to sum up that play is the final putt from Happy Gilmore.  Anyway, fastball just outside to Romero, again outside, then hits the outside corner with it, 2-1.  Keuchel goes to the change-up, and it’s hit really hard to Matt Dominguez – but he’s able to knock the ball down and make the play by a step, two down.  Both of those hit hard.  Then a cutter to Cano is the furthest hit ball of the night, it rides out to dead center, but Fowler on the edge of the track makes the easy catch and it’s complete-a-mundo!

Final Line:  W  9 IP  106 Pitches (66 Strikes)  0 ER  4 Hits  0 Walks  6 K  Gamescore: 83   Gamescore+: 81.2

Final Analysis: Well, Keuchel is kinda awesome.  Sure the Mariners batting order is pretty soft, but I saw some of the weakest groundballs I’ve seen from a team in one game all year.  With all the weak contact, I would’ve assumed a high Gamescore+, but since my stat is more fantasy-minded and he didn’t get many Ks, he scored slightly lower.

Keuchel’s arsenal is entirely built around the two-seamer, which acts more like a sinker than a traditional two-seam.  Usually 88-89, it has some fantastic sink to it – a tight, late sink.  For every 3 two-seamers, he goes to a four-seam to keep hitters honest and ramps that one up to 91.  He also mixes in his cutter at 85-86, but we didn’t see too many of those in this start (he has used them 9.2% of the time on the year).  Then the slider took him a bit to find the feel for, but it was working from the 3rd inning on with some big 10-4 horizontal break.  Devastating to lefties.  And finally the change-up usually at 79 had a great sink and “pull the string” movement on it as well.  It’s certainly not the best arsenal to rack up Ks, but all have sink to keep the groundballs a-flowing.

To that groundball rate… It’s at an unreal 66.5% right now.  The outfielders might as well have a picnic.  That’s good for best in the Majors right now.  And not just best, but second is Tim Hudson at 60.7%!  Not only is that an awesome asset for a pitcher, but having a gold glove caliber Dominguez at third and very good SS and 2B play from Gonzalez and Altuve is going to make him tough to rack up hits against.  All the other metrics make his 2.55 ERA look entirely for real – he’s got a slightly below-average .275 BABIP, but man, he got some ridiculously weakly hit grounders through this start.

Since he’s newer to the must-own fantasy pitcher-ranks, and doesn’t really have the K appeal (he’s at 7.77 K/9 right now – I think right around 7 is where he’ll end up), I don’t think he’s a guy you can really sell high.  You probably just scooped him up within the past few weeks as is.  So ride the Keuchel wave!  The control looks great and if the sink is working on the two-seam, he should mow through hitters.  I do have a concern that if he ever loses the bottom of the zone and is missing that sink he’ll get shelled.  He doesn’t have the stuff to pull through that.  Think Martin Perez early in the year – his sinking stuff right at 90 MPH was chewing through people then he started elevating stuff.  Of course he was also hurt – maybe not the best comparison – but their arsenals are comparable.  Keuchel’s next start is hosting the Orioles, I’m a little scared but he’s too hot to bench right now, then after that it’s cakewalks at the Twins then home Diamondbacks.  He might be a perfect guy to trade for if he hits a little bump against Baltimore – you can just throw out a bench bat or your last SP as an offer and might get it done.

Razzball Baseball

JB’s Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings based on 12-team Roto – green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
2 Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
3 Yu Darvish, Texas Rangers
4 Stephen Strasburg, Washington Nationals
5 Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
6 Max Scherzer, Detroit Tigers
7 Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
8 Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
9 Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
10 Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
11 Zack Greinke, Los Angeles Dodgers
12 Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals
13 Hisashi Iwakuma, Seattle Mariners
14 Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
15 Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
16 James Shields, Kansas City Royals
17 David Price, Tampa Bay Rays
18 Anibal Sanchez, Detroit Tigers
19 Mike Minor, Atlanta Braves
20 Jeff Samardzija, Chicago Cubs
21 Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
22 Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
23 Jordan Zimmermann, Washington Nationals
24 Jon Lester, Boston Red Sox
25 Alex Cobb, Tampa Bay Rays
26 Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates
27 Justin Verlander, Detroit Tigers
28 Cliff Lee, Philadelphia Phillies
29 Matt Cain, San Francisco Giants
30 Scott Kazmir, Oakland Athletics
31 Mat Latos, Cincinnati Reds
32 Gio Gonzalez, Washington Nationals
33 Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
34 Hyun-Jin Ryu, Los Angeles Dodgers
35 Rick Porcello, Detroit Tigers
36 Lance Lynn, St. Louis Cardinals
37 Homer Bailey, Cincinnati Reds
38 Chris Archer, Tamp Bay Rays
39 Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants
40 Ervin Santana, Atlanta Braves
41 C.J. Wilson, Los Angeles Angels
42 Shelby Miller, St. Louis Cardinals
43 Tony Cingrani, Cincinnati Reds
44 Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
45 Drew Smyly, Detroit Tigers
46 Wily Peralta, Milwaukee Brewers
47 Ian Kennedy, San Diego Padres
48 Nathan Eovaldi, Miami Marlins
49 Jesse Chavez, Oakland Athletics
50 Tyler Skaggs, Los Angeles Angels
51 Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
52 Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
53 Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee Brewers
54 Marco Estrada, Milwaukee Brewers
55 Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
56 Trevor Bauer, Cleveland Indians
57 Hiroki Kuroda, New York Yankees
58 Zach Wheeler, New York Mets
59 Garrett Richards, Los Angeles Angels
60 Andrew Cashner, San Diego Padres
61 Drew Pomeranz, Oakland Athletics
62 Dan Haren, Los Angeles Dodgers
63 John Lackey, Boston Red Sox
64 Jon Niese, New York Mets
65 Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
66 Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres
67 Josh Beckett, Los Angeles Dodgers
68 Aaron Harang, Atlanta Braves
69 Ryan Vogelsong, San Francisco Giants
70 Doug Fister, Washington Nationals
71 Jason Hammel, Chicago Cubs
72 Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
73 Mark Buehrle, Toronto Blue Jays
74 Travis Wood, Chicago Cubs
75 Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners
76 Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays
77 Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
78 Justin Masterson, Cleveland Indians
79 Matt Garza, Milwaukee Brewers
80 R.A. Dickey, Toronto Blue Jays
81 A.J. Burnett, Philadelphia Phillies
82 Jake Peavy, Boston Red Sox
83 Collin McHugh, Houston Astros
84 Andrew Heaney, Miami Marlins
85 Michael Pineda, New York Yankees
86 Tom Koehler, Miami Marlins
87 Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
88 Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
89 Tim Lincecum, San Francisco Giants
90 Ubaldo Jimenez, Baltimore Orioles
91 Jorge De La Rosa, Colorado Rockies
92 Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
93 Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds
94 Archie Bradley, Arizona Diamondbacks
95 Nick Tepesch, Texas Rangers
96 Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals
97 Jason Vargas, Kansas City Royals
98 Liam Hendriks, Toronto Blue Jays
99 Robbie Erlin, San Diego Padres
100 Danny Salazar, Cleveland Indians

Dropped Out: Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox (DL/awful), James Paxton, Seattle Mariners (had some really high hopes, but suffered a setback in rehab), Alfredo Simon, Cincinnati Reds (I think he moves to the bullpen soon with Latos coming back), Alex Wood, Atlanta Braves (don’t think he starts anytime soon), Zach McAllister, Cleveland Indians (DL/sucking), Edwin Jackson, Chicago Cubs (oops!  But did look better yesterday)

  • Wow – so I know I had a question about tiers, which I never have been a big fan of labeling, but the dropoff from Cobb/Cole, to three fringy vets that have issues, then it’s gnarly.
  • Slight shuffling of the top 3, who I think are fantasy SP 1.A, 1.B, and 1.C.  Tough to not have Wainwright there at #1 right now though… And Darvish keeps having these neck issues, so I had to slide him to 3.
  • As in the open, Ventura has this “valgus extension overload”, and the Royals GM said he has to learn to throw softer early and build it up within each start.  I’m no GM, and I’m the biggest Ventura supporter for the longest you could find, but I think they should give him a few starts in AAA to work on this new strategy.  I don’t know if that’s been floated out there, but there’s a lot of uncertainty.  Sad.
  • Clay Buchholz!  8 walks in 3 innings!  That equals a sub-100 pitcher.  I think I did the math right… Plus DL to top it off.
  • Phil Hughes has walked 6 the entire year.  Less than Buchholz in his last 3 innings!  Crazy.  I still don’t think he’s very good, but he’s hot right now and worth a decent ranking for ROS given his new cutter and control.
  • How bad has Verlander been?  Yikes.
  • I’m not worried about my boy Porcello.  He looked fantastic through three (I watched that start against Texas), then things snowballed.  A few lucky hits, the wind was carrying for the Donnie Murphy homer that looked like a popup… Not dropping him for one bad game.  Crossing my fingers Oakland doesn’t rock him today – tough matchup with a lot of switch hitters and lefties available.
  • Pick up Andrew Heaney in all leagues.  As soon as he’s called up, I’ll probably put him above Bauer.
  • I know it might look a little weird moving Cobb up so much off a bad start, but the Toronto Blue Jays are unreal right now.  Maybe a mini-buy low window.  Next start is at Miami, so you gotta strike fast.
  • I’ve never been a Lance Lynn guy, but hard to argue the results in the milieu of the pitchers out of the top 30.  Sure the Ks are down, but maybe he’s figured out how to pitch to contact a bit better.
  • Tyler Skaggs hasn’t been the most flashy over his past four, but how about a 23:4 K:BB in those!?  Ks coming around, obviously love that ratio, I’m starting to buy more and more in.
  • Finally moving Fister up a bit – go ahead – tell me I caved, but still not going to where he is consensus-wise.  He owned the Pirates last year (his last good start), so let’s see how it goes the next few weeks.

How’d I do with the much anticipated Keuchel profile?!  I hope everyone enjoyed it, and please share feedback on rankings below!

  1. Jon says:
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    Is McCarthy close?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jon: Yeah he’d be 120 or so, maybe 115, one crazy 12 K game. I think skews his strikeout rate a bit and he’s just not trustworthy. Has these blow up games here and there. Cool dude though! Gotta love his twitter haha.

      • Jon says:
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        @JB Gilpin: for sure. I own him right now over some of these guys so I might re-think that…

  2. Sean says:
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    Where does Latos end up once he returns and are you worried with his injury?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sean: I have him pretty close to where he’d be if healthy, I think he’s that close. Might hope Verlander, getting into the top 25 territory.

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
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    Great post! I am appalled Liam Hendriks even made the top 100 though. Appalled! (Very very very slightly.)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Grey: Haha I knew that one would catch some by surprise. But his K:BB in AAA was astonishing, still only 25, maybe this new system can get a usable guy. Very little upside though.

  4. Clint says:
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    I wondered why I’m so-so in pitching roto categories until I realized I only have one green pitcher on this list and the rest of the staff is all red for me..sigh.

    At what point in a season with a staff like that would you start cleaning house, JB? I already tossed Masterson to waivers and now I’m looking at guys like Liriano & Cingrani wondering if they’ll ever rebound or they need to be next. I’m at 585 of my 1400 roto innings already w/Teheran & Kluber leading the way w/Smyly & Porcello just above the two underperformers I mentioned in my 6 man SP staff.

    My relievers currently consist of F-Rod, K-Rod, Britton, Motte, and Belisario if one of them’s the problem (I dropped Axford a while ago).

    • Shawn of the Livid says:
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      @Clint: Not sure what to do with Cingrani either. If he doesn’t destroy the D backs then he’s gone for sure. From my team at least.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Clint: Haha that is no bueno! I think it’s right about now you have to address a struggling staff, Liriano I would trade for whatever I could, but is close to droppable if someone good is out there. Yeah @Shawn of the Livid: Cingrani was tough, because if he gets rocked, he could be moved to the bullpen or even AAA instead of Simon when Latos is back. But for now, Cingrani’s upside is still there to be owned – this next start is indeed a big un!

        • Clint says:
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          @JB Gilpin:

          So did Cingrani do just enough vs Simon’s recent struggles? Zach Wheeler’s out there to replace either him or Liriano.

          • Clint says:
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            @Clint:

            May have just solved one problem of Liriano in my 12 team roto league (I also have him in my 8 team h2h pts league) with this trade:

            I give up Teheran, Liriano, K-Rod, Alex Gordon
            I get Bailey, Samardzija, Trumbo

            I can add two waiver wire bats by putting Trumbo in a DL slot and I have F-Rod, Motte, Belisario, and Britton to keep me in the saves race. As for Cingrani…..?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Clint: Cingrani is still doing OK… Really tough to keep defending a guy that has 2+ walks in every start, but I think at some point he can get it goin. Mmmm, I might take Wheeler over him now though, Wheeler looked awesome yesterday.

  5. Shawn of the Livid says:
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    Nice one JB! Where the hell have you been!?! I was in on the Keuch very early this year, he’s been great and is one of my best reasons to pat myself on the back. ~pat~.

    Big fan of Heaney too, you think dropping Lirianno for him right now is a good idea? I keep thinking he will stop being so unreliable and remember who he was last year. Sometimes I can’ let go!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Shawn of the Livid: Thanks man! Was all around the grill over the weekend got a few days extension on my post :) Yeah I was way behind to buy in on this Keuchel hooblah, but looks legit! Ohhhhh, Heaney is gonna be so good and Liriano has been awful – I know I have Heaney a good bit lower, but since you need some upside arms I really can’t debate it… I think I should move Heaney up a good bit more next week.

  6. No Soup for Yu says:
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    Finally Thanks JB! 10 5×5 categories with OBP. Which side do you like?

    A. C Santana, H Bailey, Z Britton
    B. W Rosario, D Price

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @No Soup for Yu: Haha yessir! Def gonna take side B.

  7. Mikey B says:
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    Who would you draft first overall in a prospect draft between kris Bryant and Jonathan gray? Appel is still there too. All other top 15 or so are gone. And is there any prospect you like in particular that is flying under the radar? Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Mikey B: I’d go Bryant of those choices… Joc Pederson is killin’ it and could already be close to a promotion for the Dodgers – but tough to know his playing time. No one else is immediately coming to mind, what about sitting on a guy like Jameson Taillon? Had to get TJ but could still be a quality MLB pitcher by 2016.

    • Hawk says:
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      @Mikey B:

      You have a choice between a Cubs hitter or Rockies pitcher and you have to ask the question?

      If Gray were anywhere else it’d be worthy of discussion but as-is? Bryant and it’s not close.

      • Mikey B says:
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        @Hawk: sorry I asked bud. Hope your day isn’t ruined

  8. Jonas says:
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    Worth throwing Rafael Montero tomorrow at the Phillies?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jonas: I probably would if I wasn’t way ahead in an innings or starts cap

      • Jonas says:
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        @JB Gilpin: alright, no more chasing waterfalls. I added Heaney a few days ago, so glad to read this post. Much thanks

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Jonas: Oh man, totally forgot to add a “gone gone chasin waterfalls” on a K in this one! Definitely going back to that next week haha, any time!

        • Jonas says:
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          @Jonas: that last part meant I dropped Anderson for Montero……

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Jonas: Haha I figured, but still was a reminder to myself. Totally agree on that move.

  9. Connor says:
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    Would you drop Drew Hutchison or Cingrani for Heaney right now? I’m number one in the standings but am getting destroyed this week. Rest of rotation is Sonny Gray, Gerrit Cole, Corey Kluber, Alex Cobb, Chris Archer, and Tony Cingrani with Hutchinson and Andrew Cashner on the bench while Cliff Lee is DL.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Connor: Cingrani I wouldn’t quite yet – Hutchison… I know I have him a few spots higher, but yeah I would probably do that. As I mentioned above, I think I need to move Heaney up

  10. SeanMcD says:
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    Hi JB,

    Great column as always. I’m curious though, would you’re rankings change much in a H2H league with W/L/K/ERA/WHIP counting? I’ve had a rough couple of weeks with my current staff and have the urge to shake things up but I don’t want to make a rash decision based on a few bad outings.

    My current staff is Teherán, Bailey, Kluber, Santana, Porcello, Eovaldi, A Wood, Smyly, Wheeler (Paxton in a DL spot).

    I’m going to hold onto Teherán through A Wood for now, but Smyly (In and out of the Pen & not so hot when starting) and Wheeler (ERA and WHIP destroyer) I’m not so sure about.

    Would taking a flyer on McHugh (SP 83) over Wheeler (SP 58) be crazy? If McHugh doesn’t work out, I could probably take a shot on Heaney or anther prospect when they come up, or as an emergency fall back, stream Betances and Wade Davis until something better comes along.

    Your opinion would be greatly appreciated. Thanks!

    TL;DR – 12 Team H2H, Drop Wheeler for McHugh? If McHugh doesn’t work grab a super 2 prospect or stream Betances and Wade Davis until something better comes along. Good idea or bad idea?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @SeanMcD: Thanks man! I don’t think the ranks would change much at all, the only change stats wise is the losses. Obviously hurts a guy like Samardzija but he could be traded, Hamels and Cliff Lee maybe hurt a tad, but nothing substantial. I am more concerned with Wood of those because I’m scared he is stuck in the bullpen for a while. Not crazy at all to make that move – I’m obviously assuming Wheeler can turn it around and have a nice second half, but sometimes you can’t afford to wait. Eventually I think Heaney will emerge as the guy of the three though, and I think he’s close.

      • SeanMcD says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thansk JB. I really appreciate the feedback. I hope that’s not the case for Wood but I understand the concern.

        I’m waiting to see what Wheeler does tonight in Philly before I make any changes, but I feel better having a backup plan ready if needed.

        Looking forward to next weeks column. Have a good one.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @SeanMcD: Yeah I think Wheeler should have a good one here, hope the control comes ready today. Thanks man!

  11. DL Haven says:
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    Beckham for Broxton

    I need saves badly, how many saves does he pick up on the year?

    Thanks for the Pitcher ranking, I look forward to their release!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @DL Haven: I don’t think Broxton gets anymore saves unless he’s traded or Chapman – who’s been durable just the fluke hit in face injury – gets hurt. So I’d probably hold. Thanks for stopping by!

  12. Cram It says:
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    Haha. I love how you’re already making excuses for Porcello. You would take a bullet for him wouldn’t you? Is he your brother-in-law or something? I hate that fool’s gold.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Cram It: Excuses?! Dude’s been dealin’! Was kinda crappy today, but looks like a quality start win. One man’s fool’s gold is another man’s 18 game winner!

      • Cram It says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ya, dealin’….free passes! 6 walks? He’s so wonky. You enjoy his end of year 3.85/1.30 and blah K’s brother. I ain’t chasin’ wins.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Cram It: He had 9 walks ON THE YEAR beforehand! Numbers are still small sample enough to have one start skew them. I think all the walks were on 3-2 counts and the Athletics hitters are a bunch of dicks… I hate when my SP go against them!

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @JB Gilpin: how would OAK being anything make Porcello walk them in those counts? It could be shitty umpire however.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @goodfold2: Oakland leads the Majors in plate appearances, OBP, and the kicker, a whopping 36 more walks than any other team (248 to 212 Boston as of this morning). i.e. – they have the best eye and most patient hitters, so they didn’t chase anything, I think that’s very pertinent.

  13. Amolnar says:
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    Trying to trade ortiz/tyson ross for HIS Votto/Iwakuma

    Good trade for me?

    I also just dropped motte for Heaney! Hope he gets the call soon. Let’s go!!!!!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Amolnar: Yeah a slam dunk trade – hope you get it. And nice! Love the Heaney grab – I stashed him in my dynasty, hope he’s here ASAP!

  14. Endershadow says:
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    Should I send Cespedes and Kluber for Cruz? 14 team x 5 keepers. OBP and SLG instead of AVG. I just picked up McHugh and Harang so they are kind of taking Kluber’s place.

    I originally offered Lackey instead of Kluber, which he may still consider if I reject. I know Cespedes and Cruz have similar projections but I’m hoping for this upside to continue obviously.

    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Endershadow: I was a Cruz believer heading into the year, but I think Kluber is a monster. I’d try really hard for Lackey instead – or see if he’d take someone I have ranked below Kluber on your staff.

      • Endershadow says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the quick response. I concur.

  15. David says:
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    I’m in a 12 team 7×7 roto where we keep six with at least 2 having to be pitchers. The extra pitching categories are Quality starts and holds. I don’t have much chance of winning this year, so would like to trade some pitching to bolster for next year. With what we know now, which 2 of these would you keep for next year? Bumgarner, Cobb, Kimbrell, or Price. Thanks for your help.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @David: Gotcha – I think Bumgarner is a clear #1. I might go Price 2, but depends on where he lands through a possible trade or free agency.

  16. Zar says:
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    Nice post jb! Don’t thin I’m selling keuchel at all.

    What do you think of vogelsong at stl tonight? He’s done well this year but the stream I mayor hates him. Do I start both him and peavy?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Zar: Thanks man! Sorry I barely missed but I def woulda started Vogelsong – sucks he already gave up a run – then probably wouldn’t have Peavy. Although Peavy is doing OK so far

      • Zar says:
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        @JB Gilpin: XD I did the opposite, started peavy, benched Vogy. Turned out for the best. Do you think peavy is worth holding? I picked him up as a streamer. Otherwise I might drop him to stream Liriano tomorrow. Yuck. Maybe for some future stream. Thanks!

        • Zar says:
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          @Zar: or drop him for heany…..

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Zar: Hahah nice! Vogey wasn’t awful, but yeah Peavy did better. Ehhh, looks like he’s figured out the control, but at the detriment of Ks. Ohhhhh I’d rather Heaney, but if your league is a little slow for stashing guys, you can probably afford to stream for a little. Maybe give it a week, but keep your phone ready for Heaney alerts! Haha

            • Zar says:
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              @JB Gilpin: It’s fast for stashing. Springer was drafted and stashed and all the other top prospects are gone. I think this might be my first prospect I picked up in this RCL. I hope he’s this years Jose Fernandez ><.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Zar: Hah well I wouldn’t go that far, but yea, I’d grab him now then.

  17. Joesh says:
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    Is Gray+Lynn too much to offer for Strasburg? H2H league and QS,K/9, and K/BB are stats. Skaggs is a FA so I was gonna pick him up hopefully, so you could think of it as Gray+Lynn for Strasburg+Skaggs

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Joesh: Hells yeah, I’d definitely do that given you can get Skaggs on the wire, while I have Skaggs a good 15 below Lynn, I don’t think they’re that far apart.

      • Joesh says:
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        @JB Gilpin:

        Would Gray+Lynn+Bailey for Cole+Strasburg (+Skaggs FA pickup) be better or worth than the above offer?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Joesh: Yup I think so, I like Cole over Lynn so it’s even better

          • Joesh says:
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            @JB Gilpin:

            I was a bit hesitant to trade Lynn+Gray for Stras alone, and I think I was able to sweeten the deal further! How do you like this trade that I just made.

            I gave up Lynn+Gray+Hutchison for Strasburg+Chavez

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Joesh: Yup like it a lot! Hopefully you got it close to done with Lynn sucking today haha

  18. DL Haven says:
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    12 team head to head

    C Santana and Bruce for Gattis and G Holland
    Frieri is my only reliever.
    What say you?
    Thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @DL Haven: Hmmm it’s close… I probably wouldn’t as Bruce is a tad too valuable (even though he’s been dreadful since coming off the DL) – maybe you can get him to add another lower-tier closer with Holland? I’m assuming its H2H categories and not pts

  19. Jon says:
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    Any idea when we might see Cashner back?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Jon: All reports have been positive – I’ve seen mid-June, I’d lean towards the end of June. Maybe just over 3 weeks.

  20. Los locos says:
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    Think I’m gonna keep Skaggs over Verlander next season, thoughts

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Los locos: If his price is lesser/lifetime contract yeah I have no problem with that

  21. DL Haven says:
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    Just traded my beckham for his Kemp

    12 team head to head Category

    c Santana
    1b C. Davis, Votto, Trumbo
    2b Kipnis
    3b Headley, Zimmerman
    ss Reyes
    OF Cargo, Martin, K Davis, Bruce, Arcia, Harper

    Thanks again!!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @DL Haven: Wow awesome, nice move!

  22. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    JBizzle! do you like Calhoun over any of the following? Aoki, Khris Davis, Eaton, Viciedo?

    and would you say Kendrys should be stashed in an RCL (currently have Morneau at 1B and Garrett Jones at CI with Trumbo and Abreu on the DL)

    thanks man!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @SheriffMcRawDawg: Yo dude! I’d take him over Aoki. Probably not the other three, but I do think Calhoun can give you some speed that Davis and Viciedo can’t. Well Abreu should be back soon, I like Kendrys over Jones, but I think when Abreu is back you can just drop Jones and Morales probably won’t be playing yet so I don’t think you need to. Any time!

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @JB Gilpin: all right sweet. last one (different league) – would you take kendrys over singleton ROS?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @SheriffMcRawDawg: Ohhhhh good one. So close I’m gonna hedge – Singleton for power, Kendrys for average. Whichever fits the need better.

  23. daveon says:
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    is kluber matchup proof? he seems to be owning everyone, so i say yes

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @daveon: Yeah I think so too. All I’m gonna say is I was tooting the Kluber horn in early May last year so I’m matchup proof too!

  24. bored says:
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    Need some advice… I want to trade either Morneau or Teixeira… Which pitchers should I be targeting for either of them? 12 team h2h with QS.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @bored: I think Morneau could get more, unless you play with Yankees fans. Maybe start in the mid-30s and hope to get lucky? I’d also look to see what teams have the most depth at SP/need a 1B

  25. Sniff Test says:
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    Thanks for the Heaney advice. Hope he flashes better than Stroman. Do you trust Pomeranz tomorrow? Or should I drop him and pick up Smyly who was dropped after his last start. My other pitchers are Yu, Hamels, Santana, Porcello, stashing Latos. eovaldi on waivers too.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Sniff Test: I liked him more than Stroman by a good bit since Spring – I think Heaney is going to be very good, but maybe not rack up huge Ks. Yeah I’m playing Pomeranz tomo. But I like Smyly and Eovaldi still more ROS… Eovaldi has good matchups his next two might make that swap unless Pomeranz is dominant

  26. Slappy says:
    (link)

    3-4, 3.42, 1.28, 81K
    6-3, 3.15, 1.32, 75K
    6-2, 2.59, 0.96, 53K

    That’s 4, 10 and 30. And the drop-off from Cobb to Cole is what you think it is because you have Cole in the entirely wrong spot.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Slappy: I have no idea what point you’re trying to make.

  27. AJ says:
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    I feel like picking up Jeter since this is his last year and he is a OG even thou I ain’t a yank fan.. He would back up My Tulo/Hanley … Or I can go with Beckham .. Thoughts.. Lol

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @AJ: Haha OG indeed! Butttttt, I’d rather have Beckham if you need the backup bat.

  28. shawn says:
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    should I drop Yordano Ventura and/or Chris Tillman? afraid that Ventura will be picked up by someone else and actually only miss 1 start, and I wanna hold onto Tillman until at least his next start on Saturday against the Astros, but they’ve been hitting (and winning) and I’m near done with thinking he’ll bounce back/is healthy.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @shawn: Tillman I think can be dropped, but definitely wouldn’t Ventura. My main concern with Ventura is innings limit and skipping starts – but I think that happens more towards the end of the year. I agree, I don’t feel safe with Tillman even vs. Houston, so yeah, you can surely move on.

  29. Frank D. says:
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    Say Fister has 1 or 2 straight Quality starts and so does Beckett…Still Beckett over Fister?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Frank D.: Yeah I’d probably stick with Beckett, but it would be close.

  30. Rican says:
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    Hey JB. So this is what someone in my league sent me. “I’ll trade you any two person combination of Davis, cano, and Donaldson plus laroche, janssen, or chapman for Braun, strasburg, and Rendon” I have Braun and Co. What do you think the best trade would be?

    • Nikko says:
      (link)

      @Rican:

      I was also offered Cano and Davis for Braun and Stausburg.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Rican: Hmmm Davis Cano Chapman I would do, not sure I could do anything else. I’d rather Chapman over Rendon all things equal so would stick with that one

  31. 740 says:
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    sup JB, 10team roto 5×5. can u please rank in order for ROS? Wong, Gyorko, Villar, Beckham, Cabrera, Phillips, Peralta.

    Thank u Sir!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @740: Which Cabrera? Asdrubal or Everth? I would go Everth first then Phillips, Wong, Peralta, Gyorko, Villar, Beckham all things equal. Asrdubal sliders to probably ahead of Gyorko.

  32. Crazy old guy babbling in the corner says:
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    Someone dropped Zimmerman for Keuchel in my league. How you see him ROS? Still an ace? Better than his 4+ ERA? Same boat with price, who should improve?

    My drop to get him would be either Fister or Latos…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Crazy old guy babbling in the corner: Yeah I still like both, and Price’s K rate is insane and he’ll be great too, I’d definitely grab Zimmermann for Fister.

  33. Mike says:
    (link)

    Good Morning JB,

    I was thinking of dropping Cingrani for Eovaldi in some leagues, but I see you have Cingrani above Eovaldi currently. I must assume that you think he will get to stay in the rotation, but it is getting harder to stomach his outings. would they flip-flop with another mediocre outing from Cingrani?

    If Cingrani has another bad outing, do you drop him for Heaney? Do you drop Alex Wood right now for Heaney?

    Thanks!

    Mike.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Yo dude! Sorry a little behind with comments… Man that’s tough, I will be downgrading Cingrani in tomorrow’s regularly scheduled profile, probably below Eovaldi. I think he’s worth owning in most leagues though – probably holding him over Heaney. I would indeed grab Heaney for Wood though, I think Heaney makes more starts ROS

  34. Joesh says:
    (link)

    Hey JB,

    I was wondering if I could pick your brain as to why David Price is ranked so low on your list. His projective stats like SIERA and K%-BB% make him look like a top 5 pitcher in baseball. He has given up a ton of homeruns, and I haven’t watched him pitch so maybe his FIP is a lot more indicative of his true ERA than his xFIP (i.e. when he screws up and puts a fastball down broadway, a lot more than 10% of his flyballs are expected to go out of the park).

    Reason I ask is I was thinking about trying to buy low on him, because his ERA is crummy right now.

    Also, I had a post up earlier on here about asking about trading Lynn+Gray for Strasburg and then picking up Skaggs from the FA. I think I was able to make that trade even better for myself. The final deal I made was giving up Gray+Lynn+Hutchison and getting back Strasburg+Chavez (whilst scooping up Skaggs from the FA market for my empty slot). How’d I do?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Joesh: Sure thing! So coming into the year, he had some lucky peripherals to even get that 3.33 ERA and wasn’t getting Ks. Now he’s getting hit hard like you said with that HR rate. Another thing I don’t like is the GB% has been going way the wrong way the past 3 years – 53.1% to 44.9% to 42.6% thus far this year. So not only is he getting more HR/FB, but giving up more flyballs as well. Of course in the Trop that’s not the worst thing in the world, but all other 4 parks in that division are no bueno. Right now he’s given up more at home, but still troubles me. All that said, the K/BB is elite and he’s moved up since my 25 preseason rank. Oh the deal got through – SWEET! Love that deal

  35. los locos says:
    (link)

    JB, I been offered Wil Myers and Andrew Heaney for Justin Verlander. 10 team keeper league, also, been offered Taijuan Walker and Matt Adams, would you trade verlander for any of those offers. We keep 7 guys.

    I would have Kershaw, strausburg and one of those guys above.

    Hitting –

    McCann, Brian(C) NYY
    Hosmer, Eric(1B) KC
    Kinsler, Ian(2B) DET
    Chisenhall, Lonnie(1B,3B) CLE
    Ramirez, Hanley(SS) LAD
    Cabrera, Melky(OF) TOR
    Pence, Hunter(OF) SF
    Rios, Alex(OF) TEX
    Brantley, Michael(OF) CLE

    Singleton, Jon(1B) HOU
    Machado, Manny(3B) BAL
    Arcia, Oswaldo(OF) MIN
    Duda, Lucas(1B,OF) NYM
    Heyward, Jason(OF) ATL
    Taveras, Oscar(OF) STL
    Arenado, Nolan(3B) COL

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @los locos: The Myers one would be really tempting, but he just hit the DL so I don’t think I’m doing either. I know Verlander has been scuffling, but has so much more upside than those guys – I love Heaney though. At the least, I’d try for a little more with Justin V

  36. malamoney

    malamoney says:
    (link)

    Would you trade Gerrit Cole and Bruce for Scherzer in a H2H points league?

    We only start 4 starters and right now I am going with a combo of Felix, Greinke, Gray, Strasburg, Anibal and Gerrit. We only start 4 outfielders and right now I am going with Braun, Gordon, Cespedes, and Springer. I have Moss, Prado, Kemp and Bruce on the bench. Actually using Moss as my infield DH and Prado at 2B.

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