Once in a while, a break is a good thing. It’s especially a good thing in DFS. Yeah, yeah, I always see people on Twitter saying things like #keepgrindin, but a losing streak is a losing streak and who really wants to see their bankroll dwindle away because they are chasing a winning night. A little over two weeks ago I went through a stretch where I couldn’t lose. I cashed nine out of 10 nights, which is relatively impressive. The streak ended last Tuesday with a brutal night and continued on Wednesday with an equally unimpressive showing. With that said, vacation called and I went to Boston for the weekend. I didn’t play DFS, I rarely thought about it, and most of all, I enjoyed the break. I came back with a vengeance on Monday night and cashed in all of my double-ups and 50/50s making the four-day break worthwhile. So let this be a lesson. If you’re getting hammered every night, step back and take a breather. Or, just drink more and pass out. Either way, you’ll be drunk or you’ll save your bankroll. You can’t win every night, but you can certainly win the majority of games you play. Oh, and even with his $12,100 price tag, feel free to use Jake Arrieta against a very good Pittsburgh offense. He’s the best pitcher in baseball not named Clayton Kershaw.
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Sonny Gray, SP: $9,300 – Gray went up against an inept Tigers offense during his last start and naturally got blasted. That start was on the road where Gray owns a 7.00 ERA compared to a 2.33 ERA at home. Over nine starts against the Mariners, Gray owns a career 2.14 ERA and pitches at home. Some things just add up.
Jose Quintana, SP: $8,100 – While Quintana is usually never at the top of anyone’s list, he’s amazingly consistent. In five starts this season, Quintana has pitched at least 5.2 innings and given up no more than two earned runs. Pitching against Boston will scare many, but he gets results and should do so again on Tuesday.
Chris Tillman, SP: $6,200 – Let’s face facts: the Yankees’ offense sucks. Also, Chris Tillman looks like a solid number three starter. I’m still not sure that I trust Tillman in cash games, but he makes for an excellent GPP play.
Welington Castillo, C: $3,700 – Sorry, but I just don’t buy Justin Nicolino’s last start. The D’Backs should tee off on him and Beef should have no problem getting in on the action considering he’s batting .333 with four homers against lefties this year.
Tucker Barnhart, C: $2,300 – With Devin Mesoraco likely out for the season, Barnhart will now slot in as the Reds’ starting catcher. He doesn’t have a ton of upside, but for his price, you could do a lot worse. Barnhart is batting .303 against RHP this season if you need a little enticing.
Alex Rodriguez, 1B/3B: $4,000 – I have no problem playing the BvP game when it is warranted. A-Rod is 6-for-13 with four homers against Chris Tillman in his career. Rumor has it that A-Rod has actually made Tillman cry. Watch closely on Tuesday night.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B: $3,800 – E5 is batting .130 over the last week, so it’s safe to say he’s in a bit of a slump. With that said, he’s only priced at $3,800 against an inferior lefty in a hitter’s ballpark. Salary relief + upside = happiness.
Logan Forsythe, 2B: $4,300 – It always feels like Forsythe is a bit overpriced, but he’s worth it on Tuesday night against lefty Scott Kazmir. Forsythe’s success against LHP is well documented and he should receive at least five plate appearances batting leadoff.
Brandon Drury, 3B/2B: $3,200 – Drury is a great salary relief option as he gets a weak lefty in Justin Nicolino. He’s been batting second against LHP giving him at least one extra at-bat per game. He’s batting .333 with four home runs over the last week.
Josh Donaldson, 3B: $5,200 – Donaldson may be the top player on the entire slate given his ability to completely annihilate lefties. The Rangers are throwing a weak one in Martin Perez whom Donaldson has slashed .385/.500/.846 against during his career.
Manny Machado, 3B: $4,800 – The Yankees are starting Luis Severino on Tuesday night and he owns an ungodly bad .496 wOBA against right-handed hitters. This is right in Machado’s wheelhouse and he should be in for a fantastic night. He is definitely worth paying up for.
Brandon Crawford, SS: $4,100 – Crawford is batting .297 against RHP this season and is starting to heat up at the plate. It stinks that he hits low in the order, but the Giants should be able to tag starter Jon Moscot early and often.
Danny Santana, SS: $2,300 – Any successful DFS lineup has at least one salary punt, amirite? Look no further than Santana who is batting .296 over the last week. If the stars align he’ll either lead off or bat second against Colin McHugh.
Bryce Harper, OF: $5,100 – Harper against a soft throwing righty is just too easy. He hasn’t hit a home run in over a week and is definitely overdue. Hell, maybe he’ll hit two!
Colby Rasmus, OF: $4,400 – We know that Rasmus will never hit for average (.241 on the year), but that doesn’t take away his power (7 HR against RHP). Rasmus is in a bit of a slump which makes him more of a GPP play given his price.
Mark Trumbo, OF: $3,800 – Remember what I said about Manny Machado? Well, the same goes for Trumbo on Tuesday night. With Luis Severino unable to get right-handers out, this matchup must be exploited to the fullest extent. Trumbo’s .387 wOBA against RHP is just icing on the cake.
Michael Conforto, OF: $3,700 – It’s getting really hard not to use Conforto against right-handers. His price seems to always stay low all while he continues to maintain a .498 wOBA against RHP.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
The weather is overcast across much of the country and the only game that has any real weather implications is BOS/CWS. Even still, the chances of a delay or PPD are slim.
Doing Lines in Vegas
With several inferior pitchers on the mound on Tuesday night, it figures to be a high scoring evening. TOR/TEX and LAA/MIL lead the way at 9u followed by NYY/BAL and SF/CIN at 8 1/2u. If you’re looking to stack try Baltimore against Luis Severino and Arizona against Justin Nicolino. If you’re looking for something a bit more contrarian, use the Twins.
