Fantasy Baseball Advice

Chris Carpenter went five innings giving up no runs, allowing 4 baserunners, adding in 6 Ks, driving in 6 runs and five golden… rings.  12 runs for the Cards, but everyone was a ticker tease, except for Carpenter who pitchslapped Kip Wells.  LaRussa’s mind must be swimming with ideas….Do I hit him 8th?  7th?  Do I platoon him with Ankiel in the OF and have Ankiel come in for intentional walks?  Do I go with a Singapore Sling or an Old Fashioned?  Why is Dave Duncan looking at me?  Is my fly open?  How come no one read my book, Tonyball?  If I’m facing East, my hair should be facing West!  Why is it going South?!  If homeless people have no homes, why do they lug around so much junk?  Homeless people shouldn’t be pack rats!… Wow, there’s a lot swimming in Tony’s mind.  Interesting to peek into the mind of a genius, ain’t it?  Surprised he didn’t mention this is the last roundup of the year.  Ho-hum, so sad.  There will still be a new post every week day through the fall and winter, so check your separation anxiety at the door.  I’m still here.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Scott Baker – 5 IP, 0 ER.  His FIP last year was 3.79.  This year it was near 4.  So he was .20 off of last year.  He throws around 7 Ks per 9 innings.  So he’s good for about 155 Ks.  His Post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.39.  Guess what I’m saying is I’m going to predict next year he’ll pitch around a 3.75 ERA, good WHIP and solid Ks and he’ll be someone to look at as a third fantasy starter with number two upside and number four downside.  And in three months, I’ll quote that.

Orlando Cabrera – 2-for-5, 3 RBIs.  Behind the scenes of Razzball, I’m busy doing the top 20 recaps that will be coming your way over the next few weeks.  So O-Cab made it pretty high on the top 20 list for SSs.  I’m like, “Cool, he had a good 2nd half.”  He hit 4 homers and stole 6 bases while batting .296.  Okay, so he had a good two months?  Nope.  The shortstops are so shallow that a good five weeks is all it took.  Anyway, I’m jumping the gun, those recaps will be coming next week.

Delmon Young – 3-for-4 yesterday.  He’s batting .309 with one homer in September.  This is considered a good month for him.  Would I pickup Young off waivers next year?  Sure.  I wouldn’t draft him.  I’m not going to write someone off who’s only 24, but I’m at the point where I want to see something from Young before I take the gamble on him in 2010.  I mean, Ryan Raburn and Garrett Anderson are above Delmon Young on ESPN’s Player Rater.  Young’s the new blech.

Aaron Cook – 8 IP, 1 ER, 2 Ks.  It’s Rocktober.

Tim Lincecum – 7 IP, 2 ER.  I’m giving him the Cy Young.  He threw more innings than Carpenter, way more Ks and he’s dazzling.  I know, it’s tough to judge dazzling, but if you’ve ever watched Lincecum pitch you know what I mean.  It’s kinda like a choice between the crazy hot girl that would cheat on you and the sweet girl that would make a nice mother.  I’m taking the crazy hot girl.  For what it’s worth, I think the voters go with Carpenter.  What’s a shame in all of this is Wainwright’s getting totally ignored.  Maybe I just have a special kinship to Wainwright because I own him on a few teams and I pushed many people to draft him this year.

Mark Reynolds – 1-for-4, up to 215 Ks.  This last month (4 homers, 2 steals, .187) is why I’m going to probably take a pass on Reynolds if people are grabbing him in the top 50.  I saw value in him when people were drafting him around 200.  I see very little value for next year.  What do you want, I’m frugal.  It’s a recession after all.

Dan Haren – 6 IP, 5 ER, 7 Ks.  Ends the season with a 3.14 ERA and a 4.44 ERA in the 2nd half.  The good news is his next start is scheduled for the 1st half.

Derrek Lee – Scratched for personal reasons.  Maybe he has crabs.

John Lackey – 2 IP, 2 ER and 40 pitches.  This is about what you can expect from starters who are headed to the playoffs. I wouldn’t expect more than 5 innings from any of them.  This is a shout out to you Hamels owners.

Kevin Millwood – 9 IP, 2 ER, 10 Ks.  And this is what to expect from pitchers facing teams headed to the playoffs.

Chris Davis – 3-for-5, and hit his 21st homer of the year.  I can’t wait to see what Bill James predicts for Chris Davis for 2010.  No sarcasm there, really interested.

Cliff Lee – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  The Adverb finishes with a 3.39 ERA for Philly.

Kendry Morales – Hit his 34th homer yesterday.   The best case scenario would be the Angels are eliminated quickly from the playoffs.  Worst case scenario is, in late-October, Joe Buck saying something like, “America’s getting a firsthand look at what Kendry Morales has been doing all year.”  Then Tim McCarver says, “Good thing there weren’t more men on base when Mt. Everest erupted cause then there would be more runs.”

Four months ago, a torn tendon behind his right knee shut Jose Reyes down for the entire season.  That’s the good news.  In an attempt to return to a team that has been out of the playoff picture since July, Reyes tore his hamstring this week as he ran the bases.  His season is finally, completely, officially over.  Sure, it wouldn’t been nice to see him steal 65 bases and for the Mets to win 25 and a half games in the last three days of the season, but maybe trying to get him back for the last weekend of the season wasn’t the best idea.  Now his 2010 is going to be of the “Is he finally healthy?” variety rather than the “He’s finally healthy” variety.  Obviously more will be known as we get closer to next season.  I’m sure February Grey is preparing his status report as we speak.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ricky Nolasco – 7 IP, 0 ER, 16 Ks.  Probably should’ve been the lead today, but I felt like ranting on the Mets.  You’ll forgive me.  Take out your Benihana Buddhas and pray that next March your leaguemates look at Nolasco’s 5.06 ERA and pass on him.   Then flip a shrimp tail into your hat.

Brendan Donnelly – Got the save by picking off a runner.  Leo Nunez probably would’ve been fine if it wasn’t for some porous defense behind him.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks.  Extremely hard to argue with the season Vazquez had.  I mean, you can argue with it, but you’d be screaming at a bunch of stats on a piece of paper and that’s just silly.

Charlie Morton – 9 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks.  A four run lead is obviously more comfortable than an 11-1 lead that John Russell yanked Zach Duke from the other day.  When you figure it out, let me know because I’m baffled.

Ryan Doumit – 4-for-4, 4 RBIs, 3 Runs and a HR yesterday in the nightcap.  His nightcap had stripes and a little fuzzy ball on the end of it.

Roy Halladay – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners.  Ricciardi can now trade Halladay for the Taj Mahal.

Bronson Arroyo – 8 1/3 IP, 1 ER, 6 Ks.   On July 28th, he had a 5.17 ERA.  He now has a 3.84.  August and September, he had a combined 2.00 ERA.

Drew Stubbs – 2-for-4 with a steal yesterday.  He has 8 homers and 10 steals in 38 games.  Charades time!  I’m making a tree shape… Has fronds… Palm! Right!  Sideshow Bob! No, wait a second.  I’m making a diving motion near the palm tree… We’re in a desert…  Mirage! Yes!  That’s Drew Stubbs.  Stubbs is the Mirage casino where Siegfried and Roy used to perform? No.  Forget it.

Justin Masterson – 9 IP, 1 ER, 12 Ks.  Wow, were there any poor pitching performances yesterday?  (This is what you get when teams don’t play their first-stringers.  This is also why H2H is kinda lacking.)

Carl Pavano – 4 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  Ah, yes.  There’s a poor performance.  Mussina always said Pavano’s got no heart.

Troy Tulowitzki – 2-for-3 as he hit his 31st homer yesterday.  He has an outside chance at .300.  Incredible.

Carlos Gonzalez – 2-for-5 with a homer.  He has 270 at-bats, 13 homers and 16 steals.  In 300 at-bats, Beltran has 10 homers and 11 steals.

Hiroki Kuroda – Scratched from Saturday’s start.  Kershaw will fill in for him.  Should be the Rockies B lineup, may not be a bad start to gamble on.

Corey Hart – Probably done for the year with two fractured fingers.  No word if he hurt himself by bumping into something while wearing his stupid sunglasses at night.

Casey McGehee – 2-for-5, HR yesterday.  He has 16 homers in 345 at-bats.  He’ll have 2nd base eligibility next year.  Cust kayin’.

B.J. Upton – Two steals yesterday.  No one’s going to argue that the .238 average is a travesty, but he has 10 homers and 41 steals in only 140 games.  I’m buying for next year.

Clayton Richard – 7 IP, 0 ER.  C’mon, you’re digging the HodgePadres just a bit, right?

Brad Penny – 9 IP, 0 ER, 5 Ks.  When I say NL, you say West.  NL… West… NL… West…  You got it.

Brandon Morrow – 8 IP, 0 ER, 1 Hit.  Ah, well, here’s to him being a sleeper again next year I guess.

Adam Moore – Hit his first homer of his career.  He’s considered by many as the Mariners catcher of the future.  So that means he’ll diddle himself in the minors for three years, get called up, be given no real opportunity then get sent away in a deal with the Pirates for some futility infielder.

Jamie Moyer – Out for the season/playoffs with torn muscles in his groin and abdomen.  I told you to let the kids move the sofa!

Joba Chamberlain – 3 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  Talk about someone who fantasy owners will have no idea what to do with next year.

J.R. Towles – 2 HRs yesterday.  About 18 months too late for most.

Fausto Carmona – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  As I was skimming the boxscores to do this roundup, I saw F. Carmona and I was like, “You got that right ESPN!”

Jay Bruce has hit four homers in the last four days while hitting over .500 in the last week.  Now has 22 homers in only 74 hits with 73 Ks to go along with 3 steals.  I never thought Mark Reynolds would steal 24 bases.  I didn’t think he had 15 in him.  So, don’t take this comparison the wrong way, but Mark Reynolds is lucky he snatched up the Mini Donkey nickname because Jay Bruce looks like he could be headed that way next year.  Bruce is still very young, and his propensity to strikeout leaves him vulnerable to big slumps, so I won’t predict a huge breakout in 2010.   But he can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases while batting .250.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Now we’re getting to the point where he might actually be touted by the analcysts over at ESPN, which would mean his 2010 sleeper status could be in jeopardy.

Rick Porcello – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  He was in the borderline starters post for this week with a very mild recommendation.

Denard Span – 4-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Quietly having a very solid year.  Those Minnesotans are so modest!  He needs a spokesman.  His Wikipedia page is a third the size of the Wikipedia page for mutton.  He needs the mutton man!  His numbers are looking a lot like Victorino’s.  Let’s see, someone already has the nickname, Feign Victorino.  (I think I gave it to Fowler.)  So, Victorino’s The Flying Hawaiian.  Maybe The Flying Twinkie?  Hmm… That needs work.  Maybe The Flying Minnesotan?  Hmm, that sounds like someone on a roller derby team.  How about Wing Span?  Too cutesy?  Yeah, probably.  Forget it, this is a job for the mutton man.

Josh Hamilton – Shutdown for the season.  Back date this to April.

Mark Buehrle – Also shutdown for the season.  Back date this to his perfect game.

Jack Wilson – Lastly, shutdown for the year.  Back date this to the day he was drafted.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, HR and a steal yesterday.  He hit the longest homer (460 feet, which was not this homer, but I just heard this yesterday) for any Nationals player at home this year.  This is a team with Paul Bunyan aka Big Donkey aka Adam Dunn on it.  Ian Desmond’s a shortstop.  You ready for a math problem?  Come on, I hear Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years loves math.  Okay, here it is:  A shortstop that can hit a ball 460 feet + speed = Fantasy Sleeper.

Cameron Maybin – Speaking of fast guys with sneaky power, Maybin has two homers in the past 4 games.  I was pushing him last March for a reason, and I’ll be pushing him again next March.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  He has a 2.85 ERA on the year with 12 wins.  Is he generating Rookie of the Year buzz?  Is there such a thing as Rookie of the Year buzz?

Ryan Madson – 2 IP, 0 ER and his 10th save.  On Sunday, he got a four out save.  Manuel’s finally figured out how to make the set-up man comfortable in the closing role.  Start him in the 8th inning.

Huston Street – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Maybe he’s still injured?  I don’t know, that’s why I put a question mark on it.

Trevor Cahill – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER as the A’s continue to flummox me.  I might need to reach out to Bubb Rubb to see if he can counsel me.

Tony Gwynn – Has 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Cesar Ramos – 5 IP, 1 ER.  The latest HodgePadre.  Okay, close your eyes for a second.  Don’t worry, I won’t pickpocket you.  Now imagine Adrian Gonzalez is traded to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Miguel Montero – 2 HRs.  Speaking of trades, hopefully the Diamondbacks move Snyder this offseason.

Scott Kazmir – Scratched to ready himself for the playoffs.  He probably won’t see anything more than a tuneup before the end of the season.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs with the 2nd being his 30th.  He also has 20 steals.  Sure, his average is .252, but don’t get so tied up in average.  That’s how you ended up missing Mark Reynolds this year.

Grant Balfour - Now has saves in back-to-back games.  This could mean he doesn’t see another save this year, or it could mean he saves two more games.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s still going to be too young and prone to major mistakes in the AL East for me to get that excited about him in 2010.

Adam Lind – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now has 35 homers on the year.  I already went over my Lind for 2010 campaign.

Clay Buchholz – Had a 3.21 ERA coming in, now has a 3.74 ERA.  7 earned runs in 5 innings is one way to make your 2009 stats look worse than they are.

Josh Beckett – Supposed to start on Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch 5 innings and then get pulled from the game.  Or as Dodgers fans say, “A Kershaw start.”

Edwin Encarnacion – Out with groin tightness.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

Yesterday, Andy LaRoche made a last ditch effort for some of his parents’ love.  He went 5-for-5, with 2 homers, 4 Runs and 6 RBIs.  He had his best month of the season in September and he’ll still be 26 next year.  I might actually own Pirate players next year.  Weird!  BTW, the Pirates were playing in their final home game of the year in what has been a miserable decade season.  With this last opportunity for the Pirates to give their fans something to cheer about, the 3rd base coach put the brakes on LaRoche as he rounded 2nd heading to third on a long double.  Who cares right?  LaRoche needed a triple for the cycle!  Wait, it gets better.  Zach Duke is cruising for the entire game.  Runs into slight trouble in the 9th inning, but the Pirates have an 11-1 lead.  So what does the manager do with two outs, the never fear-inducing Blake DeWitt at-bat and Duke dealing with a very reasonable 103 pitch count?  He lifts Duke rather than let him get the complete game.  The Pirates deserve contraction.  /rant  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Hiroki Kuroda – 4 IP, 10 baserunners, 3 ER and 7 runs total.  As he provided a Ticker Shock.

Garrett Jones – HR and steal yesterday as he went 2-for-5.  On the season, he’s sitting at 21 homers and 10 steals with a .305 average.  That’s in 292 at-bats.  I think Robot Jones might officially be overrated next year, unless everyone thinks he’ll be overrated which could make him underrated or just rated.  Hard to say.  If I had to guess, I think people will assume he’s a fluke and he’ll go later than he should.

Josh Beckett – Scratched from his start vs. the Jays.  I wouldn’t wait around to see if he starts again this season if you need starters.  Chances are the Sawx throw him for only a few innings as a tuneup for the playoffs, if they throw him at all.

Brett Gardner – Gardner, Melky, Hinske, Shelley “I Will High Five You So Hard Your Momma Feels It” Duncan, Miranda-Something-Or-Other, Ramiro Pena and Cervelli.  What is the Yankees lineup a day after clinching?  Yes, that’s right.  We would’ve also accepted, what the Yankees lineup would’ve l0oked like all year if they had the same injuries as the Mets?  For fantasy baseball purposes, this isn’t great that your Yanks are sitting, but I don’t think Girardi is going to want them rusty so the regulars should see at least 4 games this week.

Jair Jurrjens – 7 IP, 0 ER, 3 Ks.  With only one start left on the year, his ERA is 2.61.  Zoinks!  Of course, I’d love for him to strikeout more guys, but it’s hard to argue with his year.  Of course, he’s no Wandwagon.  But who is?

Anibal Sanchez – 5 IP, 3 ER, 8 walks and that’s why I wouldn’t ever start him.

John Danks – 9 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Every time I think I’m done with Danks (last game 6 IP, 7 ER), he pulls me back in with a start like this.  I’m warning you now, I’m going to like him again next year.

Cole Hamels – 6 2/3 IP, 6 ER.  Damn you, Verducci Effect.

Miguel Tejada – 4-for-5 as he had his second 4 hit game in three days while batting over .500 in the last week.  At 13 homers, 5 steals and a .313 average, he’s been one of the biggest surprises this year for me.  Since those numbers aren’t that overwhelming, you can imagine how much I expected of him this year.

Gabe Kapler – HR yesterday.  Now that’s how you break a fast.

Grant Balfour – Got the save yesterday because when the bottle stopped spinning it was pointing at him.

Ervin Santana – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks as the Angels win the West.  Count on most of the Angels lineup sitting or phoning it in tomorrow.  That’s a slight endorsement for the Rangers starter tomorrow, Feldman.

Edwin Encarnacion – 2-for-3, 3 Runs and a RBI when he was replaced by Millar.  No word if he left because of a serious injury or just to emphasis how scary it is that I care what happened to him.

Colby Rasmus – This video was shot exactly 500 yards from Colby Rasmus.  If you think that is bad, you should see the one for Chris Davis.  It’s just a guy singing honkytonk at a Dallas bar and striking out with every woman he tries to serenade.

Zack Greinke won his 16th game yesterday pretty much the same way he won his other 15.  In September, he has a .35 ERA.  That’s two earned runs through 26 innings.  Okay, recent-history lesson aside.  The question I’ve been thinking on a lot lately is where will he be drafted next year.  I think it’s fair to assume he’s moved in front of Johan and Sabathia.  Webb and Peavy hit speedbumps this year and Halladay’s been his usual dominating self, but he never seems to get the fantasy love.  I mean, Halladay was better than everyone last year but wasn’t drafted in front of them this year either.  So that leaves Greinke and Lincecum.  Lincecum’s proven; he’s a top 2nd round pick.  So is Greinke a 2nd to 3rd rounder?  On one hand, it seems implausible to me that Greinke’s going to go that early (this might be because I don’t draft pitchers that early).  On the other hand, he’s earned it.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Psyche!  Before we jump into the roundup, and, oh, we will be jumping, Rudy updated the master standings.  With 114 points out of 120, Mowses is parting the rest of you Razzballers with his cane and giant beard.  Unfortunately, he has no shot at 120 points.  Damn.  We hoped with 9 leagues that one would get 120.  How many leagues do we need to have to foster a perfect season?  We feel like Mr. Burns did when those monkeys he had pounding away at typewriters were only able to manage, “It was the best of times, it was the blurst of times.”  Anyway, roundup time…

Shawn Camp – Got the save yesterday.  Probably a combination of Frasor working two innings the day before, Downs being, well, down and the Blue Jays not having a lead until the tail end of the 8th inning when Camp was already warming up.

Matt Tuiasosopo – HR yesterday.  Not much else to say, just wanted to write his last name.

Patrick Misch – 9 IP, 0 ER, 2 Ks.  Game before he gave up 8 earned in 1 1/3 innings.  Okay then.

Carlos Quentin – HRs in back-to-back games this weekend as he showed a glimpse of the player he was before you wanted to kill him.

Daniel Hudson -  6 IP, 2 ER, 4 Ks, 5 BBs.  If only BBs stood for Brian Benben sightings.  (1st Dream On reference of the day.  There will be another one this afternoon.  If you can guess this afternoon’s reference prior to posting, I will buy dinner for you and your family at Friendly’s.  *fast, hard to understand voice*  Offer available online only.  Offer applies to contiguous 48 states.  “Family” includes you and one other person.  No cousins or nephews.  Dinner includes a Fishamajig sandwich and a Fribble.  Winner must pay tax and gratuity.)

Mariano Rivera – Got the save yesterday as ESPN reported the Yanks clinched.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Hughes gets a save this week.

Chris Tillman – 2 IP, 6 ER.  In one of my leagues, I reached 179 starts the other day, so of course I threw eight starts on Sunday.  Damn you, Tillman.  I hate being roofied.

Matt LaPorta – HR yesterday and he’s batting over .400 in the last week.  Andy Marte is even starting to hit (.467 over the last week with a homer) as the Indians have the best record for the last three days, tied with three other teams.  Small victories, Tribe fans, small victories.

Asdrubal Cabrera – 4-for-5, 3 RBIs as he finishes up a decent year (79/6/68/.308/17).  Yes, it’s only decent because it’s at shortstop.  Alcides Escobar, Elvis Andrus and EverCab should make shortstop a bit more interesting next year, but not that much.  Asdrubal’s only 23 so I’ll be mildly touting him again next year.

Nick Markakis – Hit a homer on Friday after I put the reverse kavorka on him in Friday’s Buy/Sell.  It was his only hit this weekend (1-for-11).  (David Wright went 1-for-10 and sat out Sunday.  Maybe you can have a 2nd Place Finish But Still Owned David Wright trophy made.)

Edwin Jackson – 7 IP, 5 ER.  He’s had an August (4.45 ERA) and September (4.78 ERA) to forget, but you didn’t think he’d even have an April or May or June or July to remember, so don’t hate on him too hard as uncool people who are trying to sound cool would say.

Ryan Madson – 1 1/3 IP, 0 ER as he got the save.  I’d say Madson’s going to get every Phillie save this week, but every time I say that Lidge reappears to blow a save.

Mike Cameron – Has hit a homer in the past two games that he’s started.  This isn’t a “Hey, look at Cameron” thing as much as a “Hey, Gerut’s playing time is getting pinched by Cameron and Hart” thing.  I know, just when you thought you couldn’t dislike Hart any more.

Francisco Liriano – 1 2/3 IP, 3 ER.  After the game, Liriano asked for a reversal of his surgery — “I want Johnny Tom surgery!”

Orlando Cabrera – 3-for-5 yesterday, batting near .400 over the last week.  If you need a shortstop, here ya go.

Randy Choate – Entered a losing game in the 8th, then Lance Cormier got the save as Maddon played match-ups.  The Rays’ closerousel is anyone’s guess for saves.

Huston Street – In case you missed it last week, Street is the closer.  To prove it to everyone, he went two innings for the save yesterday.

Derrek Lee – Out three games now with a sore neck.  He’s been dealing with this issue most of the season, but this latest flareup was caused when Angel Guzman gave him a celebratory tap on the helmet after a home run Lee scored on.  Similar thing happened to Kaz Matsui last year when Berkman patted his ass after a homer.