Fantasy Baseball Advice

For owners bemoaning Al-Ram’s bad start, it could be worse.  You could have Whore-Ram (Horacio Ramirez). (BTW, only fantasy baseball could convince a straight man that a Man-Ram is more preferable to a Whore-Ram.  BTW II, How do you go from a Whore-Ram to a Man-Ram?  An Ass-Cab (Asdrubal Cabrera).) Or you could have Ram-Ram. (Boston’s Ramon Ramirez who, actually, is 1-0 with 8 scoreless innings…damn Ram-Ram!)  The one good thing you can say about Our Comrad Alexei’s start so far is at least he’s in the bottom of the order so he’s not getting as many at-bats.  There hasn’t been a disaster this bad since Cuba’s Ministry of Age Obfuscation (MAO) was hacked into by a 9 year-old Miami boy and revealed Orlando Hernandez was a veteran of the Spanish-American War.  Batting .125, hacking at everything, not one steal attempt, not one extra base hit…. Willie Bloomquist looks like a worthy replacement.  Shoot, I’d take William Rehnquist at this point.  Give me liberty, just don’t give me Alexei Ramirez.  Right?  Wrong.  There’s few players that are more of a Buy right now.

Alexei Ramirez is a free swinger like that guy down the hall from you with the S & M ball gag.  He doesn’t see many pitches he doesn’t like, which makes him susceptible to slumps.  You know when else he was in a slump?  Last April he hit .138 with no steals or home runs.  Looks like someone likes the heat.  So you drafted a guy in the 4th round this year who had a miserable April last year and you want to get rid of him when he goes out and does the same thing?  Shame on you.  Alexei – We raise our glass of Vodka (with crushed mint leaves and fresh lemon juice) and have faith you will make us proud.

And David Ortiz goes pop.  For Patriots’ Day, the Sawx had a special throwback day where Varitek went yard, Pedroia acted like an MVP and David Ortiz acted less jenky than he had all season.  Fulfilling their end of the bargain was Mark Hendrickson and the Orioles bullpen.  *SCHMALTZ ALERT*  Rudy and I went to college in Boston and Patriots’ Day was a time of general drunkenness as we mocked people who had just run the Boston Marathon all the way to Kenmore Square (about 25 miles).  They may have been more fit than us, but at least our nipples weren’t bloody.  R.I.P. Johnny Kelley.  Hopefully they have you in the giant pace car in the sky.  So I already labeled Ortiz a fantasy schmohawk this year, but some might see yesterday’s game as a positive going forward.  Nope.  If that was the case, the title would’ve been “GrandPapi Shows Signs Of Life.”  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Joe Mauer – Will be back in two weeks.  There’s the good news you need to trade him, auto drafters.

Mark Reynolds – HR yesterday to take the lead in his battle with Chris Davis.

Ian Stewart – Hit his third home run.  Hmm… Let’s see, play young prospect that could be the future of your franchise or play Seth Smith?  May 15th called, it says it wants Seth Smith on the bench by then.

Garrett Mock – This is funny.  The Nats supposedly brought him up to potentially insert him in the closer role because Hanranhananan has been awful.  Mock’s Triple-A numbers were 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER and 5 walks.  Yep, that fixes that problem.  In related news, Joel Hanranhananan got the save yesterday.

Brian McCann – Off to see an eye specialist — isn’t that an oxymoron?  This could be bad news for teams who bucked advice and drafted McCann.  The Disabled List Informer informs us that McCann could be out a week or two.

Cameron Maybin – To say he looks lost is like saying Corey Haim’s a trainwreck. (Full disclosure, I had to Google to see if Haim was still alive.)

Mike Hampton – 6 1/3, 3 ER.  Someone in the comments yesterday asked if Hampton may have one more run in him like Mussina last year.  As with Mussina last year, I’m not paying to find out.  Doesn’t interest me whatsoever.  I can grab Ricky Romero, Porcello, etc. and try for some upside with a 5th or 6th starter.  Hampton’s yawnstipating at best and unusable at worst.

Ryan Doumit – Bad day to be a squatter.  Doumit has a right wrist injury.  He’s the type of player to turn a sore wrist into a 15-day DL stint at the drop of a hat.  Doumit owners, hold onto your hats.

Justin Masterson – 5 1/3, 1 ER. He’ll make at least two more starts and I like him for both.

Brian Bannister – Sounds like he might be getting the call up.  Wink, wink, nudge, nudge to those in the Razzball leagues, Bannister sucks.

Andrew Miller – Not sure if he’s going to the Disgraceful List or just the regular 15-day DL, but either way, he’s outta here.  Burke Badenhop should replace him.  On the Marlins.  Not on your fantasy team.

Jordan Zimmermann – 6 IP, 2 ER.  The positive is he won.  The negative is my girlfriend had some kind of rash and I didn’t get to watch the game.  “Grey, can we go to the store to get lotion?”  “Girlfriend, can I finish watching this game?” “What inning?” “1st.” His numbers from the game look good.  Maybe if someone saw the game they can fill me in in the comments.  I’m still buying, just as I was when I said Jordan Zimmermann is a fantasy sleeper.  Move over, Acta, I got an idea.  The Nats should make their 5th starter their 1st starter.  Revolución, Che!

Ross Ohlendorf – I did watch this game… unfortunately.  8 Ks through 18 innings for this -dorf is about all you need to know.  I wouldn’t even take a flier on him in an NL-Only league.  The only league I’d try him in is a Dorf-Only league.  And try to find one of those ever since the Dorf oversaturation of the late 80s… Dorf on Golf, Dorf on Fishing, and when he went all meta with Dorf on Dorf.

The battle for best fantasy baseballer in Razzball Nation has begun! Actually, it began with opening day but I’ve finally got around to creating the master standings (also available by clicking the ‘RCL Master Standings’ link on the homepage).

There are 108 competitors across 9 leagues. We created a league index based on the strength of each league. It takes all 10 categories into account and considers the average of all 9 leagues to be at 100. So if a league averages 1% better across all categories than the 9-league average, the league index is 101 and we multiply the point total for everyone in that league by 1.01. This helps to neutralize the playing field across all the leagues.

So who’s #1 at the two week mark? ThirdandKing’s ‘L’Atelier de Joël Piñero’ is crushing the field right now with an 106.5 point score in the toughest league (A Latin 9). Here’s a glance at his Active Stats if you’re curious how he’s managed it.

A couple of notes on the standings:

1. We’ll start with fortnightly updates (that’s fancy talk for every 2 weeks!). We’ll consider weekly updates as we get deeper into the season.
2. We prefer to have your commenter handle in the Standings next to your team name. If you want to claim your team, please add a comment to this post and I’ll add it in going forward.
3. For those in the Fantasy Razzball League (aka the league where you purposely have your team suck), this will be up next Sunday night.

Good luck and may the trash-talking begin…

In yesterday’s game, Matt Kemp had 2 HRs and 5 RBIs. On the season, he’s batting .383 with 3 HRs, 14 RBIs, 12 Runs and 4 steals.  The 7th spot in the order is killing his value like Daniel Craig killed the Bond series.  Kemp’s a solid choice for NL MVP and I could see him moving to the 1st round next year for fantasy baseball drafts.  He said in the preseason that he wanted to go 40/40.  Can he actually do it?  Like Chris Young, it’s a tall order.  You don’t fall into 40/40 and, in Chavez Ravine, it’s not going to be easy for the 40 homers.  But the fact he wants to steal 40 bases is telling.  Steals are partially about motivation.  Sometimes guys just don’t want to steal (see Krispie Young in ’08).  Other times, players pile steals on to show they can (Canseco’s 40/40 year).  I doubt Kemp reaches 40 homers, but 30/30 with a .300 average isn’t crackers.  We shall call him Sizemoremore.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Glen Perkins – 8 IP, 1 ER.  You’re talking about a pitching who had a 4.41 ERA last year, but a FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) rate of 5.14.  That’s pretty bad.  Okay, I’m being generous.  That’s awful.  Yes, he was lucky to only have an ERA of 4.41.  His MOLLY (Mitigating Of Lousy Loathsome Yuck) was 7.  That means he got pretty lucky.  So far this year his MOLLY is 9.9.  His BABIP has been insanely lucky so far, his fly balls are all over the place yet falling into fielders’ gloves.  He’s due for a regression.  If you own him, you’re bound to get Mollywopped.

Ricky Romero – 7 IP, 0 ER.  To answer 95% of the questions off the bat, he’s better than Perkins.  We thought at first that he might be an old-school Joker (BLAM!) but he has a fairly sustainable BABIP, his K/9 could get better and his average against is in line with norms.  His walks are very low (for him), and he’s left a lot of guys on base, so he will see a correction in his future (SMACK!), but his FIP is only 3.86.  You feeling stressed with Baker, Parra and Dice-K?  Might want to try a little R & R. (POW!)

Rick Porcello – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s matchups material in 12 team and smaller leagues.  He’s very young, so Mike Seaver-sized growing pains should be expected.  6 innings, three earned, four Ks should be his typical line.

Adam Jones – Left with a sore hamstring and bloodshot eyes.

Manny Corpas – Kazaam!  Don’t you just love Clint Hurdle anointing him closer then bringing him into this game?

Edinson Volquez – 6 IP, 1 ER, but gave up 5 walks.  I hate to rain on your fantasy parade, but Volquez is still not pitching well.  You can’t walk 5 guys in 6 innings and win… Unless, of course, you’re playing the Astros.

Cody Ross – 3rd HR.  Could he be this year’s Nady?  Well, if he gets real lucky on average.  He could hit .260 and 25 HRs aka 90% of the outfielders on waivers in 12 team and smaller leagues.

Randy Johnson – 7 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, 1 Hit.  Didn’t hurt that no one on the Diamondbacks is currently hitting, but Randy’s still very capable of these games.  Unfortunately, he’s now capable of the 7 run disaster he threw last time out.

Matt Garza – 5 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  It’s becoming a broken record, but he was also a risky pitcher.

Javier Vazquez – 6 IP, 0 ER, 8 Ks. Since his breaking pitches went up, he also showed up on the risky pitchers post.  But so far JV has been, like ohmigod, straight varsity.

Raul Ibanez – HR and batting .386.  I wasn’t a huge fan of his coming into this year… I mean, I liked him, but he is what he is.  Anyway, one league where my team is doing abysmally, he’s been that team’s one bright spot.  If he can now send a memo to Prince, Reynolds, Bruce and Alexei, that would be swell.

Chris Iannetta – Iannetta answers all Razzball readers who were looking to drop him with a HR yesterday.  Now if he can get 28 more hits this year, he’ll have those 30 HRs you covet.

B.J. Upton – Left with quad tightness.  Looks like he now has an excuse for his lollygagging.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 3 ER, 8 Ks.  If he gives you that line every time out, you have to be happy.  Not happy happy, but “Hey, it’s Kyle Davies, I’ll take it” happy.

Gavin Floyd – 7 IP, 2 ER.  Ted Nugent.  Is the answer to, “Who could persuade me to pick him up?”

Jarrod Saltalamacchia – With that last name would it have been too much to go with the standard Jared or even Jarod?  His saving grace so far this year is Teagarden hasn’t been much better.  I’m going to suggest you punt Salty by next Sunday if he doesn’t breakout out of his funk.  The only reason why I’m being so patient is A) He’s a catcher, so if he only hits 15 HRs this year, he’s still worth it.  B) He’s talented in a great home park and in a stacked lineup.  C) No C, but you could break B up into a few parts if you’d like.

Chris Davis – Benched yesterday.  If he ends up the biggest bust of the season, we’re gonna have to get a collection together to fly someone to have a “word” with Bill James about his Davis preseason projections of 107/40/118/.302/8.  I think we should send Mr. Met.  Bill will never expect anything.

Robinson Cano? Please tell me you’re not going to suggest we buy into Robinson Cano? Please, Grey, I was beginning to find you halfway intelligent. Sorry, random italicized voice, I’m a glutton for punishment.  Someone has a terrific season the previous year (Pedroia) and I pull back.  A player craps the bed in the previous season (Robinson Cano) and I get excited about them. This is the story of my life with women too.  Kick me in the nads and I’ll buy you steel-toed boots.  (One thing I have learned, never — and I mean never — ask a girl what’s wrong.  Sweep that shizz under the rug where it belongs. Or better yet, pretend everything’s fine.)  Last year, Cano had a low BABIP for him and his line drive rate.  I won’t go too much into the numbers; I know that too many numbers makes your head hurt.  But Robinson Cano should’ve hit about .300 last year.  He was unlucky and ended up with a .271 average.  His line drive rate was on par with his career norms, actually exceeding his 2007 rate when he hit .306.  I usually try to avoid players that don’t know how to take a walk, but through his entire career he’s been this player and has done fine with this approach.  I don’t see Cano as someone that is going to breakout in 2009 with tremendous power and speed.  He is what he is.  Think 17/80/.300 hitter.  At 2nd base, there’s value in that.  Then throw in the fact that he’s usually only a 2nd half player, yet so far this April he’s been hitting the ball really well.  So to recap, never ask a girl what’s wrong and buy Cano.  Got it?  Good!  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy and sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Ryan Franklin – Shouldn’t be on waivers in any league at this point.  If he is, for shame.

Ryan Braun – Sticking with the newly established Ryan theme.  Braun says he’s fine, but these guys lie all the time.  So he is hurting.  Okay, let’s assume the worst case scenario is he slumps until June.  That’s a horrific slump.  A slump that will suck the life out of you.  In 2007, he was hitting .222 with one home run entering June.  He finished that year with 34 HRs and 15 steals.  Granted, he was just called up, but his ability to put up huge numbers in a short time still holds true.  Yes, buy a slumping guy who seems to be struggling with an injury.  You need alligator blood when the high bettor checks to you.

John Danks – Ooh, Verducci said he’s going to breakdown this year and I’m telling you to go out and get him.  Such a rebel! Danks is a third year starter and I do have a penchant for those.  In 2008, his walks were down, K/9 up, HRs fell… If not for a Snelly July of ’08, he would’ve been a top 20 starter.  This is Danks.  This is your brain owning Danks.  Yay!  Any questions?

Kyle Davies – I hate picking up guys and then not starting him, but I also don’t want to watch a guy breakout on someone else’s team.  Tough call with Davies, but you may have to grab him then sit on him.  Try the torso, that seems most comfortable.

Jay Bruce – He’s exceptionally gifted.  I know, I know.  Exceptionally gifted in one hand and a hot Mike Cameron in the other and you want Cameron.  Patience is a virtue, or so I’ve read after a delicious General Tsao’s Chicken.

Aaron Hill – Aaron Hill’s Fan Club meetings got a few more members this week.  When I asked Rudy if his love affair with Freddy Sanchez would ever end, he said no.  Then rethought, and said maybe for Aaron Hill.  Somebody’s got wandering eyes!

SELL

Ichiro Suzuki – Stress free, Ichiro returned with a home run.  Now sell this schmohawk.  No, I don’t think you should sell him for a bag of buttered popcorn and a Buddy Biancalana rookie card, but if you can get a valuable piece, do it.

Heath Bell – Really I could put any top closer here.  If you need a piece for your team, the first guy you should be looking to trade is a closer.  They’re expendable.

Armando Galarraga – “He’s near the league leaders in Wins, ERA, WHIP and he makes a terrific Eggs Benedict.  Poaching eggs is not easy.”  The preceding was you trying to trade Galarraga to one of your leaguemates.

Jordan Schafer – He’s struckout 10 times in the last 15 ABs.  That’s brilliantly bad.  Not bad as in good, but bad as in bad.  Imagine he gets 500 ABs and strikes out 450 times.  That would be cool.

Emilio Bonifacio – Nobody puts Bonifacio in the corner!