So as the two-start pitching post comes to a close, I thought I’d take a break from our usual theme based format and make this week’s edition as straight-forward as possible. But then I wrote the first draft in Old German and realized that translating it back to English was neither simple or straight-forward. There are some terms in Old German baseball vernacular that just don’t translate. Then again most of it is comparing pitchers mechanics to field work. This all gave me a great idea for a sequel to Million Dollar Arm with John Hamm. The premise is simple, upon his return from India J.B. Bernstein is driving through Lancaster County and witnesses a 16 year old Pennsylvania Dutch lefty by the name of Ezekial Miller striking out teams of grown men from a near by town. Bernstein fresh off his cricket adventure, believes he’s found his next project and wacky hi-jinx ensues. It’s one part Kingpin, One part The Natural, and one part Hoosiers. The last part only fits because there’s a lot of veiled racism that only Disney could produce. So that’s my pitch (pun point). What do you guys think, shall I kick start a Kickstarter campaign? Let’s make this happen, I have a football team of little Lifshitz to feed, or as I call them a bunch of Lil-Shitz. You like?

Oh yeah, as for the baseball stuff! You’ll notice I ditched the Ace and the Why Can’t I Sit You Tiers, and made things real simple. This week we have three tiers, Green Light (good starts), Yellow Light (one good, one bad), Red Light (Tough Starts). All pitchers have been ranked from top to bottom based on my number crunching and evaluations. So you know this shizz is G! So sit back, relax, undo your belt and pants button and give me 10 minutes of your time to discuss the Two Start Pitchers, Week 25.


Green Light (Good Starts) – This week we’re looking at opponents performance over the last 30 days, vs. handedness of the starter, home/road splits, and the pitchers recent starts. There are a few pitchers in this tier I’d like to discuss as potential streaming candidates. Those two are J.A. Happ and Daniel Norris. To anyone paying attention Happ should be obvious. He’s simply been brilliant of late, which is evidenced by his numbers (see below). A start in Colorado and a date at Wrigley, look on their face as very tough tasks. I’m not one to deny the home park boost each club gets, especially the Rockies. But here’s the thing, Colorado is god awful against southpaws, and the Cubs are toward the bottom of the barrel too. I’m more inclined to trust those splits than the home/road data. I’d start J.A. with confidence this week, crazy as it may be. Norris is a slightly more interesting case. The jewel of the David Price trade has just been okay since returning to the Tigers rotation, but he faces two clubs with dramatically bad splits in particular areas. His first opponent the White Sox, though hot lately, have really struggled to hit left-handed pitching all season. Not to mention they are sort of middle of the pack away from U.S. Cellular. His second opponent, the Twins, have been pretty good against lefties ranking 12th in team wOBA, but have struggled to get anything together outside of the Twin Cities. As I stated in my Happ notes, I’m more inclined to focus on the handedness data but there’s no denying that the road magic just hasn’t been there for the Twinkies. The bonus for you as a potential Norris streamer is the Twins start comes later in the week, so if you’re scared off by the R/L splits for Minny you can always dump Norris for a player with a good late week matchup. Say Henry Owens or Jhoulys Chacin.

Player Opponent’s and wOBA last 30 days Opponent’s wOBA vs. Handedness Opponent’s wOba Home/Road Starter Last 5 Starts ERA/FIP/xFIP
Jake Arrieta vs. Mil (.340 T-6th), vs. Pit (.315 T-21st) vs. Mil (.310 T-18th), vs. Pit (.313 16th) vs. Mil (.302 19th), vs. Pit (.310 12th) .46/1.87/2.14
David Price vs. NYY (.315 T-21st), vs. TB (.323 15th) vs. NYY (.334 3rd), vs. TB (.324 7th) vs. NYY (.321 T-3rd), vs. TB (.315 6th) 2.53/1.93/2.21
Dallas Keuchel vs. LAA (.297 28th), vs. TEX (.324 T-12th) vs. LAA (.291 26th), vs. Tex(.311 17th) .vs LAA (.301 20th), vs. Tex (.297 T-23rd) 3.58/3.88/2.45
John Lackey vs. Cin (.319 19th), vs. Mil (.340 T-6th) vs. Cin (.309 21st), vs. Mil (.310 T-18th) .vs Cin (.298 22nd), .vs Mil (.302 19th) 1.83/3.35/3.20
Gio Gonzalez vs. Bal (.306 25th), vs. Phi (.301 26th) vs. Bal (.295 25th), vs. Phi (.303 21st) vs. Bal (.297 T-23rd), vs. Phi (.297 T-23rd) 3.10/2.91/3.38
Chris Archer @Bos (.341 5th), @Tor (.373 2nd) @Bos (.320 9th), @Tor (.337 1st) @Bos (.350 3rd), @Tor (.358 2nd) 3.99/3.22/3.54
J.A. Happ @Col (.295 29th), @CHC (.340 T-6th) @Col (.280 30th), @CHC (.301 22nd) @Col (.359 1st), @CHC (.315 17th) 1.48/1.73/2.76
Alex Wood vs. Ari (.324 T-12th), @Col (.295 29th) vs. Ari (.322 8th), @Col (.280 30th) vs. Ari (.312 10th) @Col (.359 1st) 2.86/4.10/3.82
Brett Anderson vs, Ari (,324 T-12th), @Col (.295 29th) vs. Ari (.322 T-8th), @Col (.280 30th) vs. Ari (.312 10th) @Col (.359 1st) 2.76/3.66/3.13
Tyson Ross vs. SF (.320 18th), vs. Ari (.324 T-12th) vs. SF (.323 T-4th), vs. Ari (.317 T-12th) vs. SF (.319 5th), vs. Ari (.312 10th) 2.51/3.37/3.30
Daniel Norris vs. CWS (.325 11th), vs. Min (.317 20th) vs. CWS (.284 29th), vs. Min (.318 12th) vs. CWS (.305 T-16th), vs. Min (.287 29th) 4.68/4.75/4.15


Yellow Light (One Good Start/ One Bad Start) – Pretty straight-forward stream or start the matchups highlighted green, bench the starts highlighted red. If you have enough moves to makes 4-5 pitching streams for the week in your head to head playoffs use this data as the guide to gold. A few early week starts to target are Jaime Garcia’s Cincy date. (I’m a sucker for starting pitchers against the Reds on the road.) The other early start I recommend is Chris Heston’s San Diego start. The Padres are always a goer as a streaming opponent. While the beginning of the week is light with options, late week has a bunch of good stream to target. Two in particular are the starts of Red Sox rookie southpaws Owens and E-Rod. The young guns face an Orioles lineup that can’t hit lefties (or anybody in the 2nd half for that matter)while also struggling away from Camden. So in other words those starts get the triple blessing. Roenis Elias is actually a sneaky stream for each start but his bi-polar history makes him tough to trust. Otherwise he’d be at the tail of the Green Light tier. Instead he’s behind a few superior pitchers. Now for the question you’re all asking yourself. Why is Weaver on here? Is he even a two-start pitcher anymore with Friday night’s PPD vs the Twins, and how on earth are any of his starts good? To the first question……I don’t know. That’s my best answer, he could certainly be pushed back, but at this moment IDK. As for the second question it’s easy, I like Weaver for home starts. One aside before we move along, I have no idea what to make of Dodgers starts. There splits are fabulous, but they’ve been awful the last month +.

Player Opponent’s and wOBA last 30 days Opponent’s wOBA vs. Handedness Opponent’s wOba Home/Road Starter Last 5 Starts ERA/FIP/xFIP
Edurado Rodriguez vs. TB (.323 15th), vs. Bal (.306 25th) vs. TB (.324 7th), vs. Bal (.295 25th) vs.TB (.315 6th), vs. Bal (.297 T-23rd) 1.72/2.99/3.57
Jaime Garcia vs. Cin (.319 19th), vs. Mil (.340 T-6th) vs. Cin (.315 14th), vs. Mil (.298 T-23rd) .vs Cin (.298 22nd), .vs Mil (.302 19th) 4.50/2.92/3.86
Danny Salazar @Min (.317 20th), @KC (.327 10th) @Min (.301 26th), @KC (.321 T-6th) @Min (.326 12th), @KC (.331 6th) 5.02/4.33/3.71
Shelby Miller @NYM (.375 1st), @Mia (.310 24th) @NYM (.310 T-18th), @Mia (.293 30th) @NYM(.305 24th), @Mia (.294 30th) 5.86/3.51/4.27
Roenis Elias @KC (.327 19th), @LAA (.297 28th) @KC (.313 16th), @LAA (.291 26th) @KC (.331 T-6th), @LAA (.303 26th) 3.57/3.33/4.12
Chris Heston @SD (.315 T-21st), @Oak (.330 9th) @SD (.299 27th), @Oak (.309 T-21st) @SD (.306 23rd), @Oak (.309 22nd) 4.94/6.23/4.37
Jhoulys Chacin @LAD (.300 27th), @SD (.315 21st) @LAD(.324 3rd), @SD (.299 27th) @LAD (.327 11th), @SD (.306 23rd) 2.95/4.57/4.05
Jered Weaver @Hou (.322 16th), vs. Sea (.343 4th) @Hou (.315 15th), vs. Sea (.310 T-18th) @Hou (.331 6th), vs. Sea (.313 9th) 6.35/5.55/6.36
Henry Owens vs. TB (.323 15th), vs. Bal (.306 25th) vs. TB (.324 7th), vs. Bal (.295 25th) vs. TB (.315 6th), vs. Bal (.297 T-23rd) 3.25/4.59/5.42
Robbie Ray @LAD (.300 27th, @SD .315 T-21st) @LAD (.328 5th), @SD (.298 T-23rd) @LAD (.327 11th), @SD (.306 23rd) 5.01/4.82/4.59
Jonathan Gray vs. Pit (.315 T-21st, vs. LAD (.300 27th) vs. Pit (.313 T-16th), vs. LAD (.324 3rd) vs. Pit (.310 T-12th), vs. LAD (.323 2nd) 6.86/3.34/3.91
Adam Warren @Tor (.373 2nd), vs. CWS (.325 11th) @Tor (.337 1st), vs. CWS (.309 T-21st) @Tor (.358 2nd), vs. CWS (.305 T-16th) N/A



Red Lights (Avoid These) – Just don’t start these guys unless you’ve lost your ratios and you’re just looking for counting stats.

Player Opponents and wOBA last 30 days Opponent’s wOBA vs. Handedness Opponent’s wOba Home/Road Starter Last 5 Starts ERA/FIP/xFIP
John Lamb @STL (.324 T-12th), vs. NYM (.375 1st) @STL (.289 27th), vs. NYM (.310 18th) @STL (.312 19th), vs. NYM (.314 17th) 4.91/3.97/4.11
Erik Johnson @Det (.321 17th), @NYY (.315 21st) @Det (.319 T-10th), @NYY (.321 9th) @Det (.330 8th), @NYY (.328 10th) 3.71/6.97/5.49
Martin Perez @Oak (.330 9th), @Hou (.322 16th) @Oak (.304 20th), @Hou (.322 T-8th) @Oak (.309 22nd), @Hou (.331 T-6th) 4.60/4.38/4.20
Jeremy Guthrie vs. Sea (.343 4th), vs. Cle (.334 8th) vs. Sea (.310 T-18th), vs. Cle (.313 T-16th) .vs Sea (.313 9th), vs. Cle (.300 21st) 4.70/5.82/4.35
Aaron Harang @Mia (.310 24th), @Was (.361 3rd) @Mia (.293 30th), @Was (.316 14th) @Mia (.294 30th), @Was (.323 14th) 6.18/6.08/4.56
Wily Peralta @CHC (.340 T-6th), @STL (.324 T-12th) @CHC (.317 T-12th), @STL (.319 T-10th) @CHC (.315 17th), @STL (.312 19th) 4.15/5.18/4.81
Matt Moore @Bos (.341 5th), @Tor (.373 2nd) @Bos (.331 4th), @Tor (.356 1st) @Bos (.350 3rd), @Tor (.358 2nd) 6.93/5.58/4.69
Michael Lorenzen @STL (.324 T-12th), vs. NYM (.375 1st) @STL (.319 T-10th), vs. NYM (.310 T-18th) @STL (.312 19th), vs. NYM (.314 17th) 8.84/4.13/4.00
Cody Martin vs. Tex (.324 T-12th), vs. SF (.320 18th) vs. Tex (.321 T-6th), vs. SF (.323 T-4th) vs. Tex (.297 T-23rd), vs. SF (.319 5th) N/A