I mentioned in the top 20 outfielders that there’s a ton outfielders that I want to draft. The top 40 outfielders for 2016 fantasy baseball extends my enthusiasm. I’d say it’s like Cialis, but then I’d have to go through a five-minute spiel of all of its side effects. “Drafting six outfielders in the first seven rounds can lead to high blood pressure, diarrhea, sudden heart attack, fever, a fever after a heart attack which makes your loved ones think you’re still alive because you’re burning up but you’re actually dead and nausea.” As with all of my 2016 fantasy baseball rankings, included are my projections and where I see tiers start and stop. Anyway, here’s the top 40 outfielders for 2016 fantasy baseball:
21. Nelson Cruz – This tier started at the top 20 outfielders for 2016 fantasy baseball and ends here. I called this tier, “I’d take last year again. That’s not being greedy, is it?” As for Cruz, I nearly put him in the next tier of guys I’m avoiding, except a funny thing (not funny) on the way to me doing that. I had flashbacks of the last two seasons where I said he couldn’t stay healthy and I didn’t trust him beyond 30 homers. He, instead, hit 40 and 44 homers, respectively. So, like a mute horse, I’m done saying nay. As far as I’m concerned, Cruz will hit at least 35 homers until he doesn’t. Yes, I know this means he will finally hashtag fail, but that’s not a reason to doubt him. 2016 Projections: 85/35/98/.270/4
22. Adam Jones – This is a new tier. This tier ends at Dickerson. I call this tier, “I got worries, man.” But De La Soul says, “Forget about your worries and you will be all right, it’s Saturday.” But then Lil Wayne says, “Tuneche in this beeyatch, errboydy should be worried.” But then Celine Dion says, “All my worries die, I’m glad that I’m alive.” Who do I trust, and is Celine talking about her recently-deceased husband? I have to trust the Small-Sized Wayne; I have to worry about the guys in this tier. As with any players, if the value is right, then I’d take a chance, but I’m looking to avoid the guys in this tier. As for Jones, um, I mean, me and me and Mr. Jones. We had a thing going on. We both know went wrong. He stopped hitting balls strong. I have to let him go now. Up until last year, Jones played nearly every day, never less than 159 games for three straight years, and that masked his decline. It wasn’t all bad last year, his strikeout percentage did fall, and he hit his homers on average a further distance. However, his Hard Contact rate fell, his steals have all but dried up and his skill set (swings at everything) could show signs of age quickly as he enters his 30s. He had his highest contact rate last year, but I think that’s why his Hard Contact fell. When you’re hitting everything, including less than ideal pitches, it’s not always good for contact. If he falls far, I could see still drafting him, but I’ll likely be looking elsewhere when Jones is being drafted. 2016 Projections: 82/28/95/.266/4
23. Carlos Gonzalez – “You gotta know when to hold ’em and you gotta know when to fold ’em,” said the great chicken rotisserie man. No, not Ron Popeil. I mean, Kenny Rogers. No, not the Rangers pitcher who once attacked a cameraman. The singer, chicken man and guy that was in those annoying commercials during the postseason. Last year was the year to have CarGo. You missed out. Also, I don’t trust the Rockies to not trade him. Too much risk, I’m out like Mike Trout. 2016 Projections: 81/27/88/.262/3
24. Jacoby Ellsbury – His last four years his home run totals are: 4, 9, 16, 7. Is he capable of 17-20 homers? Well, yeah, dur. Is he probably going to hit that many? Why would he? Cause he’s 32 years old? That isn’t when power peaks. Because he’s in Yankee Stadium? Yeah, that did wonders for him last year. That also really turned Headley back into that 30-homer threat too, right? Don’t answer any of these. Just nod and sip your cognac, you sophisticated gentleman. Yes, I’m ignoring that you’re drinking the cognac out of a 1988 Playmate of the Year thermos. Now here’s Ellsbury’s steals of the last three years: 52, 39, 21. We’re supposed to expect him to get better as he gets older? Again, nod and sip from your classy Playmate thermos. 2016 Projections: 87/12/67/.269/26
25. Michael Brantley – I get that there’s some of your ex-BFFs in this tier. You had some good times with all of the players in this tier, like you were David Ortiz disguised as Florida Evans hugging the stuffing out of Jimmie Walker. I understand the want to grab guys in this tier like you always do because you’ve had great years from them. I’d resist that urge. These guys have a ton of question marks. The next tier could become your new BFFs and you can grow old with them and take pictures with them and animate those pics at JibJab and laugh and then next year pretend you don’t know them like you’re pretending not to know these guys. Brantley’s biggest worry is he could be out for a few months. As I said this offseason, “When a guy has major shoulder surgery, it’s already bad. When his timetable gets pushed to June, it quickly turns into “he’ll return at 70% after the All-Star break” at the blink of a hat. For you trivia buffs, “blink of a hat” is a phrase that originates from the Fat Albert character, Dumb Donald.” And that’s me quoting me! 2016 Projections: 71/14/79/.319/13
26. Carlos Gomez – Here’s a rudimentary thing I do. Not even intentionally, I just do it. I look at guys that had poor seasons last year and look for bounce backs, but if a guy is older, usually over 30 years old, then I don’t look for bounce backs. I look at the previous down seasons as the beginning of the end. Players don’t have a steady decline usually. You’ll see players have a down year in their early thirties then bounce back at some point in their mid-30’s then be totally done. Victor Martinez’s career year in 2014 comes to mind. What does this have to do with Gomez? He could have a bounce back season this year or maybe in 2017 or maybe after, but I’m not betting on it. It becomes even more precarious to count on it from an aging player that was giving a lot of value with steals. If a bounce back were to happen for CarGomez, I’d expect something like 25/15 rather than 20/35. Days of backslash 35 are done. 2016 Projections: 74/18/84/.248/12
27. Matt Kemp – I ranked Kemp all the way up in the top 20 outfielders and then, at one point, I ranked him way down into the top 60 outfielders. I trust him about as far as Johnny Damon can throw him. For every great stat I can find pointing to Kemp: Hard Contact rate 41.4% and third in the majors; I can find another stat that I don’t like: two straight years his home run distance has fallen and 11 of his 23 homers were Just Enoughs, which is scary to rely on in Petco. But then I see his strikeouts fell, but then I see his walks fell, but then I see his steals went up, but then I see he only attempted 14 steals all year in almost 600 ABs. I could see Kemp going a few different ways, but I’m not going to be owning him to find out if he goes the right way. 2016 Projections: 68/22/85/.259/10
28. Hunter Pence – I debated whether I wanted The Gangly Manbird or Hanley first in the rankings, then I thought about how that’s like choosing between Rand Paul and Martin O’Malley. No one really cares and the people that do care have their own reasons already anyway. By the by, when you Google O’Malley, George O’Malley comes up before Martin O’Malley. George O’Malley is a character on Grey’s Anatomy. I’m speaking of the TV show, not as in my left nipple is a character on Grey’s Anatomy. Any hoo! The Gangly Manbird looks good for 20/8/.270 if he stays healthy. If I were a betting man, I still wouldn’t bet on that if. That sentence is almost a palindrome. Fun! 2016 Projections: 64/18/75/.271/7
29. Kyle Schwarber – Went over him in the top 20 catchers for 2016 fantasy baseball.
30. Hanley Ramirez – Here’s your uncle again, “Hanley had one bad year in his last 15 years. You go ahead with your fancy ‘watching movies on your iPad’ and making Vines of your burps. I will go with a guy that will get 35% of Hall of Fame votes in his first year of eligibility.” Hanley has had one full year since 2011. His last year with the Marlins. Yes, the Marlins actually unloaded someone at the right time. That Venn diagram looks like this: one circle of Marlins unloading people to save money, one circle of players who should be unloaded, and Hanley is the overlapping middle circle. If there’s one guy that feels more “Tuneche in this beeyatch, errboydy should be worried” than others, it’s Hanley. It’s been three years since Hanley has had more than 20 homers in a season; it’s been four years since he had more than 14 steals in a season; it’s been six seasons since he’s hit .300 in more than 90 games in a season and has no chance of getting shortstop eligibility ever again to boost his value. Hanley seems capable of a 20/10/.290 season if absolutely everything breaks right and he doesn’t just break his wrist trying to dig a throw out of the dirt at first base while colliding with a baserunner. Oh, and if I had to guess, that baserunner will be the retired player, John McDonald, whose knee concussed Michael Brantley and Justin Morneau on separate occasions. Will Smith should stop investigating the NFL, and start investigating John McDonald. By the by, Concussion was terrible. It shouldn’t be billed as the movie the NFL doesn’t want you to see, it should be billed as the movie no one who has taste in movies wants you to see. 2016 Projections: 65/17/72/.277/7
31. Corey Dickerson – I’ll admit it’s a little goofy that in a tier of guys I want nothing to do with, there’s two Rockies. Did I forget they played in Coors? Let me ask you a serious question, if I forgot they played in Coors would I be able to ask, “Did I forget they played in Coors?” I mean, I’d likely ask something like, “Where do the Rockies play their home games?” The plantar fasciitis that Dickerson dealt with worries me. It’s the kind of injury that can feel great all winter as he rests it, then it could flare up in May and linger for months. It just comes out of nowhere. Another thing that worries me, he could platoon. For his career, he’s a .246 hitter vs. lefties with four homers in 183 ABs. Weiss has used him as a platoon guy in the past and there’s no sign of let-up on that. Another worry, his foot injury could make him tentative to steal. This is a guy whose career high in steals in a season was eight steals. Not exactly a guy who was known to steal 25 bases before. Final worry, his best season: 74/24/76/.312/8. That’s solid, but it’s not exactly the verge of 1st round material. I have a feeling Dickerson could come at a discount this year, but unless he falls very far, he won’t be on my teams. UPDATE: Was traded to the Rays. Now the middle of the Rays order is Long-Dick-‘mond, who only sounds like the breakout star of Sixteen Candles, a role that holds up about as well as anyone playing Charlie Chan. In Colorado, Dickerson was likely in a battle of a platoon, while in Tampa, he becomes their best player. Sorry, Longoria, you had your chance…again…again…again and again. Leaving Coors doesn’t obviously help Dickerson’s value, unless he decides to start pitching, and I still have my concerns about his plantar fasciitis, so I’m still avoiding. 2016 Projections: 68/20/75/.286/4
32. Joc Pederson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 outfielders for 2016 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Make like Atari and Breakout!” All of the players in this tier I’m gunning for in a big way. This tier is filled with guys that will be ranked much higher next year, and this will be the year to own them. This tier is overflowing with guys to draft. This is what happened when I was putting together the outfielder rankings. Okay, I really love DeShields, Pederson and Khris Davis. Let’s just leave the tier at them. Dot dot dot. Damn, I love Yelich too. Okay, I’ll add one more and that’s it. Then, before I knew it, I had added about seven guys and realized I loved half of the league’s outfielders. As for Pederson, I already gave you my Joc Pederson sleeper. I wrote it while thanking the universe that if they were going to use one actor from Girls in the new Star Wars movie that it was Adam Driver. Though, Lena Dunham may be every man’s Snoke. 2016 Projections: 67/26/69/.235/12
33. Khris Davis – I’m shocked I haven’t done a sleeper post for Khris Davis. I guess I should say, “I haven’t done a Khris Davis sleeper post yet,” because it’ll be coming. I mean I have to imagine it will. He hit 27 homers in 121 games last year and only six players hit homers on average for a longer distance. Not only does he have 30-homer power, but he’s in the number one park for homers last year. Yes, better than Coors. In fact (Grey’s got more, y’all!), Miller has beat Coors for homers two of the last three years. Khris Davis might be my spirit animal. UPDATE: With the trade to Oaktown, Davis’s value takes a bit of a hit due to the park change, but now, like an exercise tape, he should be guaranteed ABs, assuming the A’s don’t try to pull some kind of Khrispy platoon. 2016 Projections: 67/32/79/.249/5
34. Delino DeShields – I already gave you my Delino DeShields sleeper. I wrote it on a bathroom stall in iambic pentameter. 2016 Projections: 95/7/46/.279/49
35. Christian Yelich – In 2014, Yelich graduated from high school early at 15, he went to the prom with Jose Tabata’s wife’s grandchild that she kidnapped in the 1970s, he got his own parking spot at Crayola Canyon for his Oxboard and he hit 9 HRs and stole 21 bases as he looked primed for a break out that didn’t involve him sending his cousin into CVS to buy ProActiv because he was too embarrassed. Then, in 2015 as he turned 16, he had the privilege of being coached in the major leagues by his 2013 Little League coach, Dan Jennings, but it still all fell apart. Or did it? Damn you, reversal question, I thought I was building to something illuminating. Last year, he had a line of 63/7/44/.300/16 in 126 games. Not great, granted. But considering he battled injuries and missed about a month of time, it wasn’t awful. He likely would’ve had a repeat of his 2014 season, but can he take that next step forward. Yes, I do believe, like Yelich still believes in Santa. 2016 Projections: 89/12/61/.294/23
36. Adam Eaton – Why aren’t you crazy for Eaton? Is it the Yelp reviews? Out of this entire tier, Eaton is likely the safest, which means the lowest ceiling, but the highest floor. For succinct’s sake, he’s fine, but could be boring. Succincter, fine. Succinctiest, f. 2016 Projections: 101/11/58/.278/21
37. Billy Hamilton – Here’s a guy I kinda want to draft early in the draft season, around late-February, because I get the feeling that at some point in March it will become obvious to everyone that the Reds really have no one else to bat leadoff. Right now, Cozart is penciled into that spot, which seems totally ridiculous. But leadoff or not, Hamilton stole 57 bases in 114 games last year. Only six other players in the majors stole 30 bases. Look at it this way, Arenado got you $14.7 worth of fantasy value in RBIs last year with 130 RBIs. Chris Davis got you $16.7 worth of homer value with 47 homers. Donaldson got you $12.6 with 122 runs. Greinke got you $11.3 with a 1.66 ERA in 222 2/3 IP. Hamilton, in only 114 games stole 57 bases, which was worth $22.5. 2016 Projections: 71/5/35/.244/60
38. Randal Grichuk – I already gave you my Randal Grichuk sleeper. It was written on the backside of a Banksy. 2016 Projections: 69/25/82/.253/8
39. Yasiel Puig – I should be a landscape architect with this hedge ranking. I’m basically saying I would totally draft Puig again this year. Only thing, I need about five hundred events to conspire for that to happen. A few of those events I’d need: 1. He still has to be available after all of the guys I have above him (unlikely). 2. He has to be drafted after some guys like Hamilton, Grichuk, DeShields, etc. (Highly unlikely). 3. There’s no 3, and 1 and 2 were the same. I guess the big question is why not rank Puig higher, or at least above, say, Grichuk. Last year, Puig hit 11 HRs with 3 SBs. Haha, that’s awful. In 2014, he went 16 HRs with 11 SBs. Um, that’s not very good either. Wait, has he ever been good? Yeah, for about three months spread out across three seasons. Okay, not good, but great. Those great months give promise and he’s possibly only 25 years old. His line drive rate is goofy low (career 16.6%); that would’ve been the eighth lowest line drive rates last year. Low line drive rates isn’t a who’s who of bad hitters. Actually, quite a few great names on there, but the big names (Bautista, Pujols) hit a lot more fly balls, and they hit them far. This means Puig likely won’t have a great BABIP, which means he could hit .255 again like last year. He also hasn’t shown the ability to stay on the field, and the Dodgers seem fine with having him be a fourth outfielder at times. Times specifically when Ethier is hitting well. Or Carl Crawford or Scott Van Slyke or Alex Guerrero. Honestly, Puig is only this high because he’s got more raw talent than Nobu. At one point, his billboards all around town weren’t a threat, but that’s how they seem now. 2016 Projections: 64/19/72/.274/10
40. Marcell Ozuna – This is fascinating (if your definition of fascinating is very broad). This year, I can’t stop looking at Ozuna’s 2013 season when he hit three homers in 70 games with the Marlins, but last year I ignored that season and focused on his 2014 season when he had 23 homers and his three straight years of 20+ homers in the minors from 2010-12 (I promise that’s three years and not two as it looks; I know, that confuses me too!). So, is he the guy that hit three homers in 2013 and 10 homers last year in 123 games or is he the other guy? What if I told you he was both guys? Try to prove that wrong! In two years and 33 homers, he’s hit only one lucky homer. Last year, in ten homers, he had an average distance of 411 feet. That would’ve been the seven highest in the majors if he qualified. In other words, OZUNA still have power to spare. OZUNA illustrate by smashing 7 and 10 pins. OZUNA smash pins with bare hands. OZUNA wish to hold girlfriend’s hand but he crush her. OZUNA makes OZUNA cry with thoughts. 2016 Projections: 67/22/77/.254/3
