This week’s article is going to take a look at my top 20 ranking list for 2B-eligible players. We are at the point in the season where some hitting metrics, especially plate discipline numbers, are starting to stabilize, so we can actually make a few somewhat educated assessments of how players look this year. We’re still early, so much can and will change, but here are my thoughts in mid-April.
Original rank (as of 3/20/25 middle infield initial rankings) in parentheses:
Biggest Riser: Nico Hoerner
Biggest Faller: Luis Garcia Jr.
1. Ketel Marte (1)
Ketel Marte looks like Ketel Marte, and true to form, he’s already on the IL. His performance has been exactly what we’d hoped for – check out his Statcast page if you want to see what a strong start to the season looks like. Despite the excellent run to open the year, his current hamstring injury is exactly what many of us feared. This may just be the Marte ride: great play, long chunks of time on the IL. For now, he still sits atop my list, but if the injuries stick around as we move toward the heart of the summer, I won’t be terribly surprised and will have to reassess my current ranking.
2. Matt McLain (2)
I feel like I could copy and paste Marte’s blurb for Matt McLain. The one difference for McLain is that we didn’t know if he was quite the player he looked like in 2023, but nothing he has done so far this season indicates he can’t be that guy. In my initial rankings list, I was concerned about his lack of plate discipline – that hasn’t changed. His K% and Contact% make it clear that while his ceiling is high, he is going to suffer through some stretches where he looks terrible. But he is also showing what the highs can look like. He is crushing the ball. His HH% and Barrel% are ridiculous right now – his current rate isn’t sustainable but looks kind of real. His BABIP hasn’t reflected his HH%, so it’s virtually guaranteed to come up. I’m fully bought in as long as he can stay on the field. Which is a big IF.
3. Ozzie Albies (3)
For the first 2 weeks of the season, it looked like the whole Atlanta lineup was suffering from some contagious illness that incapacitated the players’ bats. They. Were. Miserable. Ozzie Albies’s bat also suffered from the illness, which showed most clearly in his hard hit numbers. Ever since the less-than-ideal beginning of the season, though, he seems to have righted the ship in convincing fashion. My expectations for him this year haven’t changed even a little bit.
4. Jordan Westburg (6)
In my preseason ranks, I expressed uncertainty as to who Jordan Westburg really is. His underlying skills suggest he could be amazing, as demonstrated in his big run to close out last season. But how much of his strong finish last year is sustainable?
Then, Westburg got off to a torrid start that made it look like his strong finish might be a precursor of a massive breakout. The initial surge was short-lived, however, as his numbers have come back down to earth over the last week or so, possibly related to an upper body injury that the Orioles have been cagey about. The slowdown doesn’t bother me much – my real concern is how his plate discipline has slipped back into frightening territory: In his last 6 games, he has dipped from a .303 AVG to a .196 (as of 4-15). And even more troubling, in those 26 PAs, he has 9 Ks and 2 BBs. I think his talent is obvious, but I have to admit that I’ve pulled back on my confidence in his full-fledged breakout this season. I’m still very much in wait-and-see mode, but my ranking here should indicate that I think a breakout will come sooner rather than later.
5. Jose Altuve (4)
Trash Can Man got off to a really slow start, just enough for me to begin dreaming that the end may be near for him. But, alas, according to his surface stats, he’s back to being the All-Star-level-Jose Altuve he’s been for years now. A peek under the hood, though, might tell a different story. His Statcast numbers are mired in blue (which is bad), and his expected numbers suggest that His Dumpsterness might be headed for a steep fall. A man can hope, right? But since Altuve has made a career out of outperforming expected stats, he’s still top 5 in my ranks – for now.
6. Nico Hoerner (10)
Nico Hoerner isn’t going to offer power, but he offers good ABs and high AVG potential. Add that to his SBs, and it’s clear Hoerner was underdrafted this year. Nerves about Hoerner’s shoulder injury from last season seemed reasonable, but not to the extent his draft cost ended up dipping (post-200 ADP? C’mon, now). Any drafters who kept the faith are very happy with the current return on their investment.
7. Marcus Semien (5)
I am trying to find the alarming stat that will explain Marcus Semien’s terrible start, but I just don’t see the obvious answer. The most concerning stats involve his swing decisions and the frequency with which he’s putting the ball on the ground. He’s swinging outside the zone 2.4% more often than last year. With the increased O-Swing%, perhaps not surprisingly, he is missing more often (SwStr% up 2.6%). That may simply be pressing early in the season. He’s also hitting the ball on the ground at a significant increase (nearly +9%). Interestingly, pitchers are throwing him more sinkers (up around 33% from last year), which may explain the GB% bump. He isn’t hitting line drives, and he isn’t hitting the ball hard. Are those due to pressing? To colder weather? Is he cooked?
I do think his decline will be steep and fast once it starts – Iron Man status is great until the body stops working due to all of the PAs each year. Is this the year? I’m concerned but not yet convinced. His BABIP is currently bottomed out (.136 as of 4-15). While in the aggregate, his BABIP has been on a slight downward trend since 2020, I don’t see him dropping 114 points in one season. Once the BABIP regresses back (positively) toward the mean, everything else will presumably go up as well. Right? I’m going to think so for now. But if his numbers are still similar in mid-May, I’ll change my tune.
8. Kristian Campbell (N/R)
I don’t know yet who Kristian Campbell is, but everything I’ve seen looks nice so far. His Contact% is a touch lower than I would like, but it’s mid-70s, so fine. His Z-Contact% is great, and he’s hitting the ball hard enough. There are some plate discipline metrics that give me pause (a CSW% of 29% among them), but I feel like I might just be looking for something not to like. He has pedigree, and so far, he’s holding his own in ways that seem sustainable. I’m going to trust the talent until I see a reason not to.
9. Brice Turang (11)
I have been lukewarm on Brice Turang from the beginning of the season – I just can’t shake the idea that he offers basically one carrying skill. But, whoa, he is smacking the ball with a completely different level of authority than he has in the past. Though I still have doubts, his power metrics are through the roof, especially compared with last year’s version of Turang. And his plate discipline metrics seem not to have been impacted in a way that is super concerning. His K% is up 4.5%, but that means he’s up to a completely reasonable 21.5% K%. His BB% is down to 5.1%, but he was at only 8.1% before. He’s clearly selling out for power (at least to some extent), but his Contact% and Z-Contact% are both still quite good. He hasn’t dropped enough in those areas to look like his new aggressive approach is hurting him to the extent that it’s clearly helping him. And his Statcast page is bright red. I’m still hesitant to buy in, but I’m getting there. I need a month to see if the changes stick, but I’m starting to think they may just be a new version of him.
10. Xander Bogaerts (8)
Xander Bogaerts has been his standard, oatmeal-y self. Those of you who have read my previous posts know I’m good with oatmeal. It isn’t my chosen dish, but it’ll keep me going and fill quite a few nutritional needs. Bogaerts hasn’t hit a HR yet (as of 4-15), and he has more SBs than we might expect at this point in the season. Otherwise, he’s Xander Bogaerts. Nothing exciting, but solid contributions in every category (he will eventually hit a HR!).
11. Luis Rengifo (9)
A friend of mine came by yesterday to tell me he dropped Luis Rengifo for Jose Caballero. Oy – that’s definitely not a move I would recommend. Maybe if you’re just absolutely desperate for steals… But drop someone else, man.
Rengifo is off to a slow-ish start, but all of his underlying data screams “Luis Rengifo!” I’m not worried about his play – though the balky hamstring has me a little nervous. And the fact that he plays for the Angels concerns me. But Rengifo, like Bogaerts, is the kind of oatmeal I’m happy snacking on from time to time.
12. Tommy Edman (N/R)
I’m not actually convinced that Tommy Edman is all that good of a player, but he is using what he has extremely effectively. His Contact% is back up to the mid-80s after dipping last year in an injury-driven season, and he has a good position in the top 6 hitters (hitting 2, 3, 5, and 6 on a given night) in the best lineup in baseball. I don’t expect his crazy HH% or HR barrage to continue, but he will likely be a consistent source of Rs, AVG, and SBs.
13. Andres Gimenez (12)
Andres Gimenez started his run in Toronto on a quest to be the new Babe Ruth. As expected, his power metrics have backed off, but he is still hitting cleanup nearly every day for a pretty solid Toronto lineup (at least it’s a solid top of the order). I’m not totally sure how long he can justify taking up a run producer’s spot, but as long as he’s hitting cleanup, I’m interested in what he can provide. Admittedly, though, a big part of me thinks that the Gimenez run producer days are numbered, and if (when) he drops down in the lineup, he’ll fall pretty quickly down the ranks.
14. Bryson Stott (13)
One interesting thing of late is that Bryson Stott not only is playing a lot – so far, he even has 18 PAs against LHP! Of course, the wet blanket on his facing lefties is simple: Stott is hitting a robust .083 against them so far this season. Yikes.
Against righties, though, something is happening – since April 11th, he’s been leading off against them. That’s just a span of four games vs. RHP, but if that sticks, Stott becomes a much more interesting player with significantly higher potential value.
15. Luis Garcia Jr. (7)
I was already pretty well out on Luis Garcia Jr. at his draft season price, and now he’s routinely sitting against lefties. In only 8 ABs against LHP so far this season, he’s 1 for 8 – although he hits the ball hard, he pounds it into the ground at a 58.1% clip and hasn’t hit a single line drive (in an admittedly miniscule sample). Against RHP, his GB% still isn’t stellar (48.6%), but his LD% of 17.1% looks plenty promising. His slow start against RHP so far this year seems largely BABIP driven, so I’m not concerned there. But if he isn’t going to play against LHP, I can’t put him above the guys who are going to get consistent ABs no matter which hand the opposing pitcher uses. And with Gimenez hitting cleanup and Stott batting leadoff against RHP, Garcia drops even lower.
16. Otto Lopez (N/R)
Otto Lopez got off to a scorching start but has just as quickly come back down to earth. I’m not concerned though. The Miami lineup is embarrassingly bad (so there’s no threat to a young, promising player’s PT), and Lopez looks just fine underneath the hood. He is underperforming his xBA, which is over 60 points higher than his current AVG; he has plate discipline, and his Statcast metrics have a ton of red (which is good). I’m still very much in.
17. Brandon Lowe (N/R)
Brandon Lowe is doing Brandon Lowe types of things so far this season. He isn’t flashy, and he doesn’t offer many PAs against LHP. But against RHP, he is smoking the ball. If you’re in a shallow league, and he’s on your waiver wire, pick him up.
18. Luis Arraez (N/R)
Luis Arraez doesn’t hit the ball hard. He doesn’t really offer steals. He won’t be a run producer. But he will give you AVG+ and a good supply of Rs. Admittedly a bit of a one-trick pony, but really good at his one trick. Amazing stat: he has struck out twice in 81 PAs – woah.
19. Maikel Garcia (N/R)
Maikel Garcia has some holes in his game, most notably (at least in my eyes), an O-Swing% near 30% and a CSW% over 30%. Yikes. And his BB% is gross. The problem with numbers like that is they essentially guarantee slumps. But even with holes in his swing and a profile that is conducive to suffering through semi-long periods of looking like he forgot how to hit, he’s making contact at 82%, and his Z-Contact% is 91.8%. And this is nothing new – somehow he has poor plate discipline, but he makes contact at high rates season after season. This year, he is absolutely smoking the ball – though he has proven in the past that his hard hit metrics don’t add up to a HR breakthrough, no matter how much we want one from him. It’s hard to figure out exactly who Garcia is since he has a skill set that doesn’t all seem to fit together. But he undeniably has upside, especially with his speed.
20. Jackson Holliday (N/R)
This isn’t an earned ranking as much as it’s one based on talent – as well as a dearth of viable 2B options. Jackson Holliday certainly doesn’t have the results to make us think this year is going to be the breakout, but there are some things happening that might just be a precursor of a big turn in the right direction. First, despite a woeful 2% BB%, his K% is only 25%. Not great, but definitely an improvement from last year’s 33.2%. His Chase% is only at 19.5% (after being over 27% last season). His Z-Contact% is well up from last year, as is his overall Contact%, but both his SwSt% and CStr% are down. He may not be walking right now, but he seems to be controlling the plate just fine. And he’s squaring up pitches at a nice rate (+9% over last year). To add more promise, his HH% is comparable to other middle infielders with a little pop in their bats. With all of these improvements in plate control, his BABIP is stuck at the same number from last year, .265, which is significantly lower than any BABIP he had in the minors (for the short time he was there). It looks to me like he’s doing good things without getting the payback. The probable trajectory is up.
Honorable Mentions:
HM 1. Brendan Donovan
He is one of the most boring players imaginable, but in a deep league, he’s tremendously useful.
HM 2. Gleyber Torres
For the few games this season when he’s been healthy, all he has done is hit. Comerica Park may dampen his HR output potential, but it sure hasn’t kept him from hitting the ball with authority. If he stays in the lineup, I think he might be in for a really nice bounce-back season.
That’s the list for this week. Next week, I’ll start dredging up some waiver wire possibilities as injuries on our rosters start piling up.
Until next week. – ADHamley
With the call up of Caleb Durbin, who do you prefer in dynasty leagues? Corbin or Maikel Garcia? Thanks!
Oh, Garcia for sure. His inconsistency can be aggravating, but he’s more of a cog in the Royals lineup. And those tools will pop at different times during the season.
As I’ve been listening to other folks gush on Durbin, I will say that it’s clear I’m not as high on him as some other folks. I like Durbin fine, but I think Garcia has more upside. But there are some smart analysts who are good players that are high on Durbin. You may want to check out what they’re saying before you make any final decisions.
Where would Jonathan Aranda slot in, assuming his 2b eligibility in yahoo
Wow, Yahoo will give eligibility on just about anything. I’d love to go pick him for 2B though. I like his skills: his power is real, and he’s not up there just flailing blindly. To have his HR ceiling yet strike out as a reasonable clip is impressive. The projections don’t give him enough PAs in my opinion, so I’d probably mostly go 1.5-2x what the systems project him to do with counting stats. I don’t think he’ll offer any real help in AVG (or SBs, obviously), but otherwise, he’s a steal at 2B. Brandon Lowe light? I haven’t taken a close enough look to know for sure, but I’d probably slot him right around 18-19.
No Paris?
Yeah, I just don’t buy the Kyren Paris breakout. There really isn’t anything he’s currently doing that isn’t virtually the same as what he’s always done — but the results are just out of this world right now. But if you look at his plate discipline (not good…), his ability to make consistent contact, his ability to lay off pitches outside the zone, nothing is very good. In fact, most of it’s flat-out bad. I can’t find a single projection system that takes Paris’s recent hot streak as signs of a breakout, and I sure don’t see anything that suggests he will. I hope I’m wrong, but right now, everything looks driven by BABIP and the fact that he’s squaring the ball up better. His HH% and Barrel% are WAY up, but he’s not hitting the ball any harder. He just happens to be hitting more line drives right now, and he’s keeping the ball off the ground a bit better. It truly just looks like a hot streak — and he certainly has the tools to have a hot streak, but he also has the holes to crash bigtime.
I always want to see young players succeed, so I will be happy to be wrong, but I’m just not there with Paris.
Good insight. I’m just gonna enjoy it right now for a position that’s kind of a wasteland. Lol
I’m in a league where I already have Ozzie Albies for second base and we don’t have many bench spots so backups are used mostly on high talent guys with multiposition eligibility. I cut Holiday last week. He stinks and was riding the pine every day. I don’t think he’s near as good as all the “experts” said he was.
I suspect his struggles are more due to youth and inexperience, but anything could happen. The fact that he’s getting objectively better at the plate (plate discipline metrics are all going up) but just isn’t having any more success looks mostly unlucky. If the O’s would either commit to playing him or flipping him for pitching they so desperately need, I think he’ll thrive with consistent PT. I was too scared to draft him, but I’m starting to wish I had (even with the slow start).
Thoughts on Caleb Durban? Is he worth a pick up at the expense of Gabriel Arias? I have a ton of mediocre guys at second Gleyber, Norby and Arias…12 team dynasty 5×5…bonus question is Lou Bob washed? Thank you!
If you need someone to play right now, Arias makes sense in the VERY short-term.
But with Durbin being called up, he now has a shot to make his case. And Milwaukee’s lineup is so bleh that he’s probably going to get a decently long tryout. Durbin’s skills, while not overly amazing, look real. His plate discipline is quite good, and his speed is an absolute carrying skill. Arias is doing almost everything he’s always done, but his results are just currently better. His plate discipline (or lack thereof) is frightening (his contact% looks like he could crash and burn at any moment), so I just don’t think he can sustain the good run he’s on.
I don’t know that Durbin will explode and become a great player, but he does look to me like a solid piece for the future. In a dynasty league, I’d be very interested in Durbin. My only interest in Arias would be for an immediate, short-term fill-in.
The worst thing about Gleyber, to me, has been the games he misses. He’s hitting well currently, and virtually all of his underlying stuff looks just like his underlying skills always look. Last’s year’s dip is honestly hard to explain. But there’s no reason to think he can’t bounce back to 2022-23 kinds of numbers.
I just realized that I totally missed your Luis Robert question. I don’t think he’s washed. I think he’s just miserable on the Southside. As a Cubs fan, I’d love to see them trade to get him. I expect his bat to pick up soon.
So Jazz at the top?
Oof, I just missed that one. I didn’t realize he had already picked up 2B eligibility. That’s my bad.
I would put Jazz at the top for sure, but I do expect some wild inconsistency at times. His tools are real though, and NY is a great fit for him.
Would it be beneficial to have Westburg go IL for a bit to handle this upper body situation or would you think BAL just plays it carefully and he’ll do well anyway?
Yeah, the way the Orioles are working with him is confusing. Something’s off, which makes me think the upper body thing hasn’t healed. So, yeah, I’d be happy to see an IL placement, but I don’t think that will be the direction the O’s go. Which will drag this thing out, I fear.