Last week, I talked about how much the Streamonator liked Chris Carter for the first week of May here. Don’t question the Streamonator! Carter has 5 homers through Friday’s games (3 for this head to head week) and perhaps more amazingly, he only has 5 strikeouts in 25 at bats. In April, he had 26 strikeouts in 74 at bats. Obviously we know Carter well enough at this point to know his .283 average is a sham. That said, 40 homers isn’t out of the question at all. Unless you’re getting a quality offer for him, I’m probably just holding for the home runs. Here’s a recap of the articles posted this week on Razzball followed by a brief look at the week ahead:
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Hello everyone, and welcome to Sunday!
Like always, we have a great slew of games on our hands to discuss today, as there are 11 games on the main slate today, and if you want to sweat it out the entire day, there is also a set of 15 games in the all-day slate. These games we see today aren’t ace-filled like the previous ones have been, yet we are coming up on a new challenge to face this Sunday. The sample size.
Baseball is very stats-driven, but they biggest key of effectively using these stats is to interpret them: Which ones are noise, which ones are the most beneficial to us, and when to start looking at these beneficial statistics.
At this point in the season, for Starting Pitchers, most of our options have pitched through 5-6 starts, except for those who have been hurt, promoted from AA/AAA ball, etc. I personally believe that 5-6 starts is enough to see how these SP’s have been doing against a whole bunch of teams, and how they look in 2016. Yes, we haven’t seen double-digit starts yet, but we can get an idea of how they’ll continue to do throughout the season. But what about our bats? This is tricky.
For the studs who have played every on most days, we are looking at anywhere between 100-125 total plate appearances. For the normal guys, we have seen anywhere between 80-100 appearances, and for the low-tiered guys, we have seen mostly between 50-80 appearances. Is this enough? Sometimes, as we can start to get an idea about how these certain players will do, however we have to keep in mind of how baseball is such a high-variance sport, and 100 plate appearances may not do it enough.
For me especially, I will make sure that if the appearances are solid (because one guy could have a 30 K% in 2016, but only have 10 PA’s) and consistent, and continuing my theme of breaking down the pitchers we want to use, who we want to attack against, and the bats to do so.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
I know I promised all of you the second installment of my MLB draft preview…..I lied. Sometimes I get an idea between Wednesday and Saturday, and I just go with it. Forgive me, if you can find space in your heart to do that. Besides, we have plenty of time before the draft to get into another 25-40 players, and we will. Not mention some sweet, sweet international action before the J-2 signings. But not today! No, today we update you on the ongoing happenings of the minor leagues, and players making news. So, in that light it’s only appropriate we open with what has to be the buzziest name in all of minor league baseball at the moment. Tyler Glasnow. He who went 7 strong and punched out 11 hapless Louisville Bats hitters last night, the second time he reached that number in his past three starts. His ERA now sits at 1.64, with a ridiculous K/9 of 13! If it wasn’t for The Man and his oppressive super two rules, he’d be facing major league hitting right now. But we’re just not living in a perfect world run by Supreme Leader-Emperor Trump…. just yet. Don’t laugh I’ve been to the future…Regardless, Glasnow needs to be stashed NOW in any league where starting pitching matters. So pretty much everywhere. Unfortunately, you’re probably going to be sitting on him for a month or more. Just bite the bullet and do it, he’s got huge K potential, for a winning team in the National League. That’s a tasty package…..
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Two-Start Pitchers, Week 6: Drew Makes Me All Smyly
May 7, 2016 | Two Start Starters | 38 Commentsby: M@
Get ready for all the feels. Back in the preseason someone, either JB or an emailer, asked Grey on the Razzball Podcast (did you know we had one? Subscribe!) who could be the next Corey Kluber in fantasy baseball, a pitcher that had a high K%, a good minor league trajectory, and displayed something that would trigger a breakout? In 2014 Kluber ascended into Cy Young status, and won many a fantasy league for owners everywhere (this guy included – love you Corey!). It’s the type of question posed every offseason, because finding the diamond in the rough is part of what it takes to really excel in fantasy baseball. The season is so long, there is such a huge accumulation of stats, and there are so many players. If only you can find that special one.
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Jung Ho Kang returned to the Pittsburgh line up after being sidelined since last September with a fractured tibia and what a return he had. Tibia shmibia! Kang came back with style, hitting two ding-dongs and going 2-for-4 with 3 RBI. Talk about gung ho! Talk about an obvious headline! What? You think you can do better? Go ahead and try. Please don’t I need that .0001% of a cent per page view every month if I want to afford my obsessive soba noodles and MOBA habit. Kang slashed .287/.355/.461 last season with 15 homers and 58 RBI. If there’s a possibility Kang is somehow still available in your league now’s your chance because he won’t be long. Me suspects manager Clint Hurdle will ease Kang into the daily line up slowly, but if he keeps hitting dingers we should see him playing everyday sooner rather than later. From the looks of it, Kang is going to pick up right where he left off and be a valuable fantasy asset immediately.
Here’s what else I saw Friday night in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Hi there! I’m the new Saturday Draft Kings guy, and I’ll be helping you make millions BILLIONS of dollars on DraftKings. Anyway enough about me, let’s get in to this. It’s lefty ace day! We have Kershaw, Price, and Sale (and Kuechel, if you consider him an ace… I mean he did win a Cy Young) all pitching today. That’s why I’m here to talk to you about the soft throwing and soft looking righty, Bartolo Colon. What’s in that belly and how is he still pitching effectively in the MLB? My guess is there’s a lot of cheese cake, pizza, and pastrami. Tonight Big Bart gets to pitch against the Padres. If it weren’t for Atlanta, the Padres would be the worst team against RHP. His last outing vs Atlanta he threw 8 scoreless with 7 Hits, 7 K, and 0 BB. That outing added up to 31.8 DraftKings points. The thing about the Padres is that they strike out and don’t walk. Big Bart has struck out 28 and only walked 3. The big man doesn’t cut corners…he paints them with his 2-seamer. Early on this season, he’s painting corners and generating the most swings and misses that he has since 2004. This seems like a solid match up for the 42 year old, but like that belly, it may explode at any time. Rostering him is only going to run you $7,300. This will save you some money to spend on one of those lefty ace’s or some big bats. All right Razzballers, I give you the rest of my picks:
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?
Closer Report, Week 5: Rock Pile Of K/9 Misery
May 7, 2016 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 74 Commentsby: Smokey
Ugh, the smell of my onsies de Mayo is so much worse than a normal day. I reek of sizzlin’ fajitas and am all cotton-mouthed from… well let’s just say alcohol. So attacking the usual Saturday bullpen rundown is a dizzying affair to say the least. Speaking of a dizzying places, let’s look at the Rockies bullpen situation; it’s definitely not all kush, but it’s not charcoal brick pack. The trust in Jake McGee is still there, because to be honest, the talent level behind him isn’t really there, is not ready, or has no experience in the end-of-game thing. Behind Jake are Chad Qualls, who has pitched the majority of the right-handed match-ups in the 8th inning with a smattering of Boone Logan mixed in. Now, I was nervous about McGee’s K-rate until I saw what Qualls’ was. The stout bunch of McGee and Qualls have a combined K/9 over the last 14 games of 5.16. That is combined! I can’t make up this stuff. The role of closer is most likely safe because the next guy up is Qualls, and well, if that last stat statement wasn’t enough to make you bored, I don’t know what else to say. The look of the rest of the pen is very unproven with Scott Oberg, Justin Miller, and Gonzalez Germen. What this bullpen needs is a youth movement to come front and center. They have the guys there, but aren’t utilizing them in a role that is conducive for anything outside of dynasty leagues that count holds. Eddie Butler and Carlos Estevez (no not that one) are a good start to what could be a decent mix. And yes, I see Butler as a bullpen arm. Getting chances are sparser than other teams for the Rockies, but with time, and once they start invigorating the youth into the chain of holds and saves command, progress will be made even above sea level. Let’s see what other gobs of knowledge we have for the closers over the last few weeks…
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Is he learning the English language? Is he drunk? Is he trying to say ‘drawer’ while drunk? Did he have a stroke? Does he just not know that the person he’s thinking of is an artist and he’s calling him a drawer? Did he just have an operation on his teeth and he’s saying jewelry? The jewelry drawer? Does he have marbles in his mouth? Rocks? Gobstoppers? Is he doing an insensitive impersonation of a speech impediment? No, prematurely balding man, he’s trying to say the name Drury! As in Brandon Drawer–Excuse me, Brandon Drury. Yes, he’s about as hot as any hitter in the league and should be owned. In the bigger picture, he had a .331 average in 63 games in Triple-A, and is only 23 years old, so, while he hasn’t shown great power in the minors, it could still be developing. Is Drawer top shelf? Too Drury to say. Anyway, here’s some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
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Preseason I was telling anyone that would listen to draft Nick Markakis. I had him ranked as the 35th best outfielder in standard points leagues. While 37 is well outside the top ten, or even twenty, in twelve team leagues that start three outfielders he becomes a borderline starter. Most leagues will start four outfielders, moving Markakis squarely into a starting role. For those trying to figure out how I came to that conclusion, here’s the math. Twelve teams times four outfielders equals 48 outfielders, and the last I checked, 35 was less than 48. Even in ten team leagues with four OF spots Markakis lands a starting gig.
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OPS Leaguers Unite! One Month Down, Five Long Months To Go
May 6, 2016 | OPS Leagues | 11 Commentsby: Phil B.
Hello OPSers! Hold up; we need a better name than that. That sounds like we like to add lots of Post Scripts to our letters, but it’s a surprise or we work for UPS but there was a typo. Someone think of something better, I implore you.
Anyway, I hope all your teams are dominating; I’m lucky enough to be doing really well in my home league; the rest, eh, not so much. Still, I’m not deterred. I’m looking at some trades but I don’t really like to assess the standings until the end of May. Because by then we should have a month of good weather hitting (and pitching, though I don’t really talk about pitching here as there are better sources, like JB) and know if guys are who we thought they are(LINK). Man, that never, will ever, get old.
What is getting a little old to me? The Cubs and their zany road threads. Joe Maddon might be too loose. Every time I watch the Cubs they show them getting off the bus in their crazy threads (check them out!). It’s definitely hilarious but as a longtime cursed Cubs fan I worry. It’s like they are all rookies when I don’t think any of them are (correct me if I’m wrong, wait, don’t make me look bad, keep it to yourself).
I figure this week we’ll look at the some of the top OPS hitters by position and some slumping guys to acquire. Note: all stats through May 3rd. Let’s dive in!
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DraftKings: Friar Struck(out)
May 6, 2016 | DraftKings, Fantasy Baseball DFS | 41 Commentsby: MattTruss
Contrary to what I previously believed, the San Diego chicken is not in fact the mascot for the Padres. That dubious honor goes to “The Swinging Friar”. What he’s swinging, we don’t really know, but we do know he’s swinging…and missing…a lot. In fact, there’s only one other team that is striking out more than the Padres. The numbers are darn near video game level. A really easy video game though, not like World Championship Baseball, that shizz was darn near impossible. Vince Velasquez went for 16, Clayton Kershaw went for 14 (and 9), Cueto went for 11, and Jon Gray got 11 Pads. Multiple other pitchers have K’d 9 Padres in a night as well. It’s ugly. So, tonight we’ve got Noah Syndergaard taking the mound, he of the 12.25 K/9 and 2.51 ERA. The scary thing is, he could be even better, his FIP is sitting at a tidy 1.39 and his xFIP is a wonderful 1.79. *Drool* How do I not own this guy in any leagues this year? Brutal. Things shouldn’t get any worse in Petco Park. I don’t need to blab about how amazing Syndergaard is, but I will. A stat I love to look at is SwStr%, or the % of strikes a batter swings at and misses. Noah’s 15.9% currently leads the league. He’s throwing strikes and guys still can’t touch it. Could be that 97.6 MPH average fastball. I also like a pitcher that can get a batter to chase a bad pitch. Even if they get ahold of it, it’s usually weak contact, so making a guy chase a pitch is a nice skill to have. Well, Syndergaard’s 36.6% O-swing %, or percentage of non-strikes swung at, is 2nd in the league behind only Zack Greinke. That would help explain why he has a soft contact % of 26%, good for 11th in the league. All of this is to say, he’s really, really good and the Padres are really, really bad. This is a no brainer top cash game option of the night, despite the lofty price tag ($12,900). Don’t overthink it and just watch those K’s pile up. Let’s see if we can make our bankrolls pile up with the rest of these picks:
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Jose Altuve is on pace for 60 homers. He can’t even reach the cereal in the morning! If an opposing manager were to ask to see Altuve’s bat, they would crack it open to reveal gumballs because he’s the leader of the lollipop guild. If the major leagues were to institute a Daffy Duck ‘You Have To Be This Tall’ sign before getting to the batter’s box, Altuve would need his mother to escort him into the batter’s box every time. That’s assuming she’s tall enough! If she’s not, who does he get? His uncle? Erik Kratz? If might were height, Jose Altuve would be a giant. That much is true. I love that lil’ bugger! I want a Teddy Ruxpin in the shape of Altuve to cuddle at night. Last night, he went 4-for-4, 2 runs, 2 RBIs with his 9th homer, hitting .330. So, the question is, can he keep it up? Up is not a word I associate with Altuve, and, no, he can’t keep it up. No one could keep up this pace. Of course, he’s still a .315 hitter with an easy 110 runs, 35 steals and 70 RBIs, i.e., a top ten bat. So, keep it up? No, not without four phonebooks under him. Do enough to make you glad you didn’t sell high? As a French dwarf would say, “Wee!” Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?
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