As many of you know, I’m in the NL-Only Tout Wars league, so every year I take part in an industry NL-Only league with the CBS peeps to try to find my footing before I go off to New York to take on the heavyweights, and Andy Behrens, who appears to have a healthy BMI. Some might mock, some might mock draft, but this is my draft prep, and am happy to take part in this league. Until about 25 minutes into the draft, and players go for way too much, and I start getting hungry and I just want the whole thing to be over and ermahgerd! But, for those first twenty-five minutes of the five-hour draft, I’m laser focused. For this league, I once again use Rudy’s NL-Only rankings, and his War Room (it’s free with a subscription). I won’t try to get you to buy it anymore. You can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make the horse put a cape down so I can walk over the water without getting wet. (If you want a shallower league, play against me and hundreds others for prizes –> Razzball Commenter Leagues.) Anyway, here’s my 12-team NL-Only team and some thoughts:
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Donkey Teeth is back with some new wheels for a full show this week. In this episode, the Ditka Dudes profile promising young third baseman Rafael Devers. They also touch on early round stud Eugenio Suarez along with late round mystery man, Joey Wendle.
Encased in this week’s sausage links you’ll also find some discussion about the on going TGFBI (The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational) industry drafts.
The full Ditka Pod fantasy third base rankings are dissected during the show and can be found below. The season is coming, put some sausage in your ears before it’s too late!
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Please, blog, may I have some more?We’ve reached the end of the NL Central, and with only one division left to cover I’d say it’s been a productive offseason. The redbirds are in good shape down on the farm – as you’d expect. The top two specs should be flipped and flopped according to your window of opportunity. Reyes will start contributing this season, while Gorman – who I think is the better overall prospect – won’t be ready for harvest until late 2021/2022. Since Opening Day is an ungodly March 28th this year (hooray for postponed games!) I’ll put out a list of prospects you should know for redrafts this Wednesday. Best thing to do is just stay seated and keep refreshing this site until then. No need to burn those precious calories moving.
Please, blog, may I have some more?As of this writing, Part 3 of The Eighteenth Out literally went out to the public less than an hour ago and I’m already back in the lab, ready to see where our latest exciting correlative discovery may take us. Nothing like a good statistical breakthrough to start the week, am I right? If you’re just joining me on my exploration through time and sports you can catch up on the foundations for this work here (Part 1, Part 2, Part 3). I am so genuinely stoked about the path we’ve found ourselves on, that yesterday afternoon I almost asked the girl at the pork store if she could believe that Quality Starts were so highly correlated to Starting Pitcher End of Season Position Ranks in Fantasy Point Leagues (exhale). I mean at this point it had to be all over social media, right? Trending worldwide? Would I be dodging swaths of sabermetric paparazzi on my way back to the car? Well, it was not, I was not and I didn’t even end up asking her. I just took my hot soppressata and left (it’s pronounced soo-pah-sad for all my non Brooklyn born baseball lovers).
Now that I’ve successfully referenced my favorite cultural salted meat, its time to get back to work. To quickly recap, we left off with all Starting Pitchers in 2018 with at least 20 Quality Starts (15 Players) and tested for correlation with that pitcher’s finishing rank by position in each format…
Please, blog, may I have some more?NL West | NL Central | NL East || AL West | AL Central | AL East
I don’t pay much attention to Spring Training Statistics. You never know who the statistics are coming against. Baseball-Reference did, however, have an amazing tool last year that attempted to quantify the quality of opposing pitchers or batters faced during spring training games on a scale from 1-10 with 10 being MLB talent and 1-3 being high A to low A level. This tool is great, but it averages all the Plate Appearances or batters faced. You would still need a deeper dive to see if your stud prospect smacked a donger off of Chris Sale or off of your kid’s future pony league baseball coach. So what should we watch for in March when we’re starved for the crack of the bat? Ignore “best shape of their life” stories and Spring Training statistical leaderboards. Pay attention to injuries and lineup construction and position battles! Also pay attention to where Bryce Harper signs… Note that signing can instantly eliminate a position battle detailed herein (although it sounds like only NL teams are involved right now).
Please, blog, may I have some more?Let’s set our baseline for the closer hierarchy as spring evolves. There hasn’t been that much in the way of news and Craig Kimbrel remains unsigned. He’s therefore unranked. If he signs he goes in the top tier. I shoveled snow this morning, so you’re getting winter weather themed tiers.
- One guy I’m coming back around on is Archie Bradley. He dealt with a fingernail issue last season that sapped some bite from his curveball. He recently said, “I’m throwing some hammers this year. I’m going to have one of the best curveballs in the big leagues.”
- I’m coming around on Matt Barnes. He should have the inside track to that job as the veteran.
- People are paying too much for Pedro Strop in my eyes. There’s almost no chance he has that job to himself all year.
- I’d be cautious on Jordan Hicks and Andrew Miller. With Carlos Martinez nursing an arm issue he might be moving into the pen.
- Some of the best pens to speculate on for early saves are going to be the Twins, Rays, and Mariners. All three team will be competitive. If someone takes the job and runs with it they’re a league winner. Please, blog, may I have some more?
Going to the grocery store is always fun but there’s one thing about it that’s truly special. If you find the darkest corner of your favorite grocery store, you come across this beautiful bin that has unreal deals. My favorite thing to go for is a box of donuts. You know, the variety pack with favorites like the pink frosting donuts with the colorful sprinkles and the jelly filled ones with powdered sugar. But what makes it truly amazing is the fact that you get these donuts for a single dollar because it’s in this magical bin. While many of these donuts are usually expired, they’re still good, very good in fact. We have a similar thing in fantasy baseball. Sometimes people give up on these players just like those donuts but in many cases, they’re still very tasty. That’s what we’re going to do here, as we’ll dig into that bargain bin and find some players that fantasy owners have given up on too soon…
Please, blog, may I have some more?In part 2 of the shortstop review, The Itch joins the show to talk about the recently completed Ditka, Sausage, and Dynasty league FYPD draft. B_Don and The Itch then dive into Adalberto Mondesi, Fernando Tatis Jr., and the SS position as a whole for fantasy and the real game. Go check out The Itch’s article about shove score here at Razzball. As the hot stove finally gets going (at the end of February), grab a cold brew and get your hot sausage here.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Moment of silence for the White Sox. Their gambit failed and now they’re stuck with every top free agent’s in-laws. Their clubhouse chemistry is gonna be like Meet the Fockers but more Dominican. Meet the Focktinez! “That’s my cat, Señor Mal Suerte. He uses el bano all by lonesome.” That’s Yonder Alonso. Bryce Harper’s dad eyes Señor Mal Suerte, then replies to Yonder, “You can milk anything with nipples. Even Yolmer Sanchez.” Any hoo! Bryce Harper finally signed with the Phillies. Halleberrylujah! It’s not even Easter and baseball season has already risen! Bryce Harper returns to the City of Brotherly Love, where he first visited with the Phillies’ front office six months ago. “We want you to be a Philadelphia Phillie.” “I want $330 million.” “Okay.” Then six months later, “You’ve got a deal!” Harper and Boras drive one hard bargain. They accept the first deal they’re given, but nearly a half year after they’re given it. Bryce Harper’s gonna love playing in Philly. They have the best fans in the world. They’ve already announced May 1st is Rain Batteries On Bryce’s Head Day. A crowd favorite, for sure. I don’t think this changes anything about my preseason projections for him, tee bee aitch. I always assumed he’d end up in Philly, New York or with the White Sox, because, brucely, those were the only three teams ever serious about him. Maybe the Giants, but let’s just be glad that didn’t happen. In my top 20 for 2019 fantasy baseball, I kept his projections. Only difference now will be if Gabe Kapler and Bryce’s dad get into an arm wrestling fight, and Daddy Harper wins and Bryce is randomly benched for Scott Kingery. Also, I updated the top 80 outfielders and top 100 outfielders for Roman Quinn and Nick Williams, respectively, and my War Room has been updated. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?NL West | NL Central | NL East || AL West | AL Central | AL East
As the resident save chaser, I feel it’s my duty to give you some names that you maybe don’t expect to get shots at saves this year. Bullpen’s are more volatile than the fake friendships on the Real Housewives programs my wife watches to get back at me for monopolizing the TV during the NFL season. I did this exercise last spring and Wily Peralta was in there. I almost didn’t publish it after including him, if that gives you an idea of what we’re dealing with here. I’m not talking the closer in waiting or guy that got 30 saves two seasons ago. I’m going to do my best to write a name so repulsive you consider never reading my column again. We’ll go division by division, starting with the NL East.
Please, blog, may I have some more?This is about the guys you forgot existed or hopefully most guys in your league are not looking for. The goal is to snipe these guys on the waiver wire or late in your draft. In dynasty formats, it is crucial to find the value guys late after all the big-name prospects are taken. Your dynasty farm system can help you in many ways with trades and mid-season call-ups. Hopefully this helps you find some gems where people are not looking. Keep in mind ALL these players are looking at call-ups this year…
Please, blog, may I have some more?Ditka could’ve showed up at Spring Training and made the Baseball Hall of Fame without playing a regular season game. Ditka would’ve brought back the two-way player in baseball well before Shohei Ohtani. Ditka would DH in the NL. Ditka’s ‘stache would put such fear into hitters when he was on the mound that they would leave the batter’s box, never to return.
Donkey Teeth and B_Don discuss the young Mets SS Amed Rosario in part 1 of the shortstop profile this week. Amed showed a little power, and in a game where stolen bases are harder to come by in bunches, Rosario stole 24 bases in 2018. There were some swing changes that the guys noticed during their review and look for some growth in 2019.
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Please, blog, may I have some more?