Much has already been pontificated (so many years I’ve waited to use the word ‘pontificate’!) in terms of what lay before us as both baseball fans and fantasy baseball players. And all of this pontification (2-for-1!) can be culminated (or stirred) into one simple question: What can we expect in just 60 games? Now, I’d be remiss for not mentioning that we are in the midst of another spike of the first wave of the Miller Lite Corona virus, and the increasing dangers in both the Arizona and Florida areas is making this whole Manfred fantasy complicated, and then of course the player opt-outs, the chance we won’t even be able to complete the season from a many number of factors… you could say that we are practicing folly by pushing forward. Like that one girl I dated in college. That being said, if baseball does become more reality than fantasy, it’ll be one of the most unique moments contextually speaking. I mean, I don’t think a 60-game season compares to sliced bread, but that’s just me, a toast-lover. So while Joseph Gordon Levitt had 500 days to woo everyone’s favorite manic pixie girl Zooey Summer, we’re going to have only 60 days to un-woo COVID, all while trying to experience America’s favorite pastime as safely and carefully as possible. What could go wrong?
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Points Leagues, Who Gives A Ship
July 4, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 19 Commentsby: malamoney
I’ve got to be honest, I’m not even that excited for the 2020 fantasy baseball season. It almost feels dirty to actually say that. I started playing fantasy baseball back in 1990. For those not so quick with that math, this would be my 30th year playing this great game. So why am I not pumped for the start of the season. Well, I think it’s mostly hesitation. I just do not believe that we will actually see a full season. And by “full season” I mean sixty games. How long is it going to be until a couple of players test positive and things get shut down? I wonder if a player would rather test positive for PEDs or Coronavirus? I asked my buddy if he’d rather have Coronavirus or Syphilis. Any guesses how he answered? He chose Coronavirus because it would be easier to explain to his wife. We are already facing an extremely shorted season, any interruptions would exponentially compound the problem.
A shortened season is much less disruptive to the roto format, but when it comes to head-to-head points leagues, a nine week season practically cripples the season. In roto it’s just less time to accrue stats, but in a 12-team head-to-head league, you’ll play each team once, and some twice if you have two opponents each week. If you play one team each week you won’t even play every team in the league over those nine weeks. And what about playoffs? Why does Jim Mora’s reaction to the topic of playoffs immediately come to mind? For every week of playoffs that’s one less week of regular season. Can playoffs even be afforded? Do you just award the championship to the team that finishes the regular season in first place? I can see it already, the team that finishes first will be the team that got to play the shitty team twice. Can you blame the second place team for feeling slighted?
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Top 75 Outfielders for 2020: Summer Camp Edition
July 4, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Top 75 Outfielders |by: Coolwhip
What’s up party people. We’ve been through some things, haven’t we? Not sure how this year’s July 4th BBQ will go down with social distancing, but could work out a bit in your favor. No one will be able to stand close enough to the grill to criticize your sear technique. That’s gotta count for something! Back at the end of February in the before times of the long-long ago, I gave you my pre-Spring Training first look at the Top 75 Outfielders for 2020. The world has since been torn asunder and we weren’t sure there was going to be any baseball season, let alone civilization. We screwed up the chocolate factory and the whole thing had to be washed and sterilized. Then so shines a good deed in a weary world. We had a wonderful debate between owners and players about how to fund this season, for those who took a nap (or 80 in between), allow me to recap it for you:
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Back in March–which feels like it was back before water was invented–I posted the first iteration of my corner infielder rankings. Things have changed dramatically since then, so I’ve updated my rankings accordingly.
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Oh hello, Razzball reader. How’s the view from your bunker? I have to say I chose an excellent shade of cement-gray, myself. My HAM radio tells me we’re expecting some baseball soon. Hope the hazmat suits they’re surely wearing don’t affect overall athleticism. Joking aside, this is an entirely different baseball landscape. The NL has added the DH. Extra innings will see a runner start on second base. Teams have admitted they aren’t really sure how they’ll get through nine innings of pitching. That opens up two interesting angles for us creative thinkers. Wins are going to be very random and shift to a large amount relievers. So you save chasers are going to be in a great position for win chasing. Get your WAGNOF on. Also, NL players that may not have seen as many at-bats obviously just got a boost. Not only the poor-fielding power hitters but their slick-fielding compliments that now get into the lineup more often. Let’s tackle it all.
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Philadelphia Freedom (From Reporting COVID-19 Cases)
July 3, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 81 Commentsby: Grey
Well, this is icky. I don’t know what MLB is doing by reporting that they’re not reporting Covid cases. I mean, I think I get it. It’s icky and it’s tricky and — “Shut up, brain, don’t start singing Run-DMC.” — and AND and I don’t know! But not reporting it is doing what exactly? They report injuries to Mitch Haniger that make you want to cross your legs. They report injuries about how a guy fell in a bathtub with a deer — hello, Clint Barmes! — but they don’t report Coronavirus? I just…I don’t know. Not sure it’s the answer. With that said, the Phillies placed Scott Kingery, Hector Neris, Tommy Hunter and Ranger Suarez on the IL yesterday without even a press release. Someone just happened to notice the roster moves. Does that mean they have Covid? Again, I don’t know. Since they announce literally every other injury, one can conclude. How serious is their symptoms? Again, no idea. This is gonna be one helluva 60-game season, huh? My solution is, if you really don’t want Covid speculation, just don’t announce any injuries at all. Change the IL to the ILL and whether it’s a hammy or Covid, don’t say anything. Just say they’re ILL. As for fantasy, Neris’s loss for saves could be huge, but we don’t know yet he’ll miss any of the season. I’d hold him. If you want to speculate, I guess Adam Morgan or a committee (which is atrocious for a 60-game season). As for Kingery, again, we don’t know how long he’ll be out (or why he’s out), so hold. This could be a boost to Adam Haseley. He could be a top 60 outfielder with everyday at-bats, and worth a shot. Or not. Wheeeeee! A 60-game season! Anyway, here’s what else I saw for fantasy baseball:
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Who could be this year’s Chris Sale or Brandon Finnegan? Those two made their Major League debuts in the same year in which they were drafted: 2010 for Sale, 2014 for Finnegan. Sure, both of those players got their feet wet via abbreviated action in the Minors, but “feet wet” might be an overstatement. If anything, their spikes got a little damp, then dried off by the time they arrived in the realm of the AL Central. Sale made just 11 Minor League appearances for a grand total of 10 1/3 innings pitched, while Finnegan bested him with 13 appearances and 27 frames. 2020 draftees won’t have the same opportunity to prove themselves against MiLB talent, but they’ve also been gifted with the uniqueness of the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, which opens the door for all sorts of insanity and unprecedented strategies from MLB brass.
Therefore, we have to call it a wash. If all goes according to plan and we do indeed get a 60-game season, 2020 is going to be super weird. As a result of that, I’m not the first person to openly predict we will see a 2020 draftee appear in the Bigs this year and I certainly won’t be the last. My expectation is that we will see one-to-two recently drafted players appear in the MLB this season. Although I can’t say with certainty who exactly that will be, I can attempt to do so using the information that’s out there. That’s precisely what I’ll be breaking down in this post by providing you with a list of pitchers who have an outside chance to contribute actual fantasy value in your league this year, ranked from the most likely to the least likely.
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Ian Smith (@FlaSmitty), Pit Master and prospect analyst, joins the show to breakdown this years MLB draft. We discuss the teams that had the best draft as well as the Top 10 picks. We breakdown Max Meyer and Zac Veen who may have the most upside in this years draft class after Spencer Torkelson. Ian gives us the best tips and tricks to make the best BBQ. Brisket, Ribs and burgers are some of his favorites to cook. What are yours?
Please, blog, may I have some more? Fantasy Baseball Strategy For A 60-Game Season: Wins
July 2, 2020 | fantasy baseball strategy | 105 Commentsby: Grey
I let out a full-throated cackle when I wrote the title. I don’t know how to predict wins in a 162-game season. In a 60-game season? Dress up your four cats in players’ jerseys and spin a bottle. Whether the Fanta lands on Hairy Styles or Cat Stevens, don’t matter, pick them up, because they could lead the majors in wins. I was saying to Rudy the other day, I don’t know if it’s fortunate or not to roster Freddy Peralta. He could be the 3rd thru 6th inning guy every third game and lead the majors in wins, or he could be unrosterable. (Brewers are especially problematic with Corbin Burnes, Peralta, Josh Lindblom, Brett Anderson, and Eric Lauer. Start Brandon Woodruff and Adrian Houser and pray for rain, but since MLB has a hard stop date, there’s no time for rain, so spin the bottle and hope it lands on Purry Mason.) So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for wins?
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Well these have certainly been an interesting few days. Sunday, I hit the brakes on my 40-man scuba dive because I wanted to dance among the raindrops of roster decisions and come back soaked in fantasy baseball goodness.
Making a team’s 40-man roster has always granted players an edge in getting a promotion. Every season when we’re waiting for our favorite prospects to get the call, we watch a parade of misfit toys already on the 40 get that chance first. Especially in some organizations that don’t like to toggle the 40-man. In the variation of baseball we’ll get this year, this under-contract advantage seems greater than ever.
If you’re in a deep league, making semi-regular rounds dissecting 40-man rosters can give you a predictive edge. If you’re in any league, really, how can it hurt to know who’s likely to get called up next at a given position on a given team, no matter how anyone’s hitting or pitching?
Can’t hurt, right? 2020 will be all about maximizing short-term opportunities, so let’s hop in the pool and swim a lap around the American League West.
Note: everyone mentioned in this article is included in the 60-man player pool.
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Charting the Future: SP Strength of (60-game) Schedule
July 1, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 9 Commentsby: TheTinDoor
When assessing starting pitchers, savvy fantasy players look at a wide variety of measures. Velocity, stuff, BABIP, Statcast, 2019 performance…balancing out all of the available metrics to determine cost (draft slot, $ value) is the name of the game.
Today we’re going to look at a metric I rarely see discussed in the pre-season: strength of schedule (SoS). In-season, SP matchups are gold, whether you’re playing DFS or streaming in season-long. But before the year, I rarely see analysis go any deeper than AL-vs.-NL comparisons. This makes partial sense because we don’t know what a rotation will look like beyond the next week, making projecting out specific matchups impossible.
At the team level, however, we can get get a pretty good handle on who may have advantageous matchups and who will have a tough road in front of them. More specifically, we’re interested in the extremes: How frequently will each team face really tough matchups, or really easy ones? These are actionable (start/sit decisions). For the rest – the fat part of the bell curve – we’ll mostly be making decisions based on individual SP talent, not matchup.
One other note: in a 60-game season, each SP only gets 10-12 starts, meaning SoS will be more important than normal. In a reduced season, there isn’t time for the schedule to balance out. If a Rays pitcher has to face the Yankees three times, that’s 25-30% of their 2020 season stats, and you may want to downgrade them on draft day.
I’m basing this analysis on the proposed breakdown of the 60-game schedule found on MLB.com:
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Another week and another actual show about baseball! Imagine that? We’re off politics again and back on that fantasy baseball flow. Grey and I dive into the 60 man rosters and then have an in depth conversation on how to attack pitching this season. The long and short, nobody knows but pitching is going to be filled with landmines for a variety of reasons. It’s the latest episode of the Razzball podcast. Now with 60% more baseball!
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