If you’ve lived in an area with access to the major Turner Broadcasting networks at any point since 1997, you’re probably familiar with the popular holiday movie A Christmas Story. The plot of the film revolves around Ralphie’s desire to obtain a BB gun (or more specifically a Red Ryder Carbine Action 200-shot Range Model air rifle – but who can remember for sure) for Christmas that year. What nine-year-old boy wouldn’t want a BB gun? I know I would’ve loved one. All I usually got were a bunch of socks and sweaters and other boring stuff that I couldn’t care less about. What the hell, Mom?

But I digress. Just like Ralphie, we’ve all wanted that shiny, new BB gun at some point. Without those BBs, how would’ve young Ralphie fared against the likes of Black Bart and his crew? This fantasy season, we want those BBs instead of Aunt Clara’s homemade gift of choice. That brings us to this week’s exercise. Watch A Christmas Story tonight and then post your review in the comments. Wait, that’s not it, though feel free to discuss the movie if you’re so inclined.

Today, we’re looking to identify the players who have posted high BB-rates and, by extension, an above average ability to reach base. I added a little wrinkle into this exercise as well. Let’s take a look at the search criteria:

2013-14 MLB seasons

Minimum 500 PA

BB% of at least 8%

wOBA of at least .340

Much like the LHP masher exercise that I recently conducted in which power was the primary focus (but not the only one), I wanted to emphasize on-base skills without completely ignoring overall offensive value. That’s where weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) comes in. wOBA is similar to OPS except that it places more emphasis on getting on base relative to hitting for extra bases. So while the OPS criterion fit the slugging exercise slightly better than wOBA, the opposite is true for this one.

To provide a point of reference, as always, here are the MLB averages for all hitters across the 2013-14 seasons:

Season BB% K% BB/K ISO AVG OPS wOBA
2013 7.90% 19.90% 0.4 0.143 0.253 0.714 0.314
2014 7.60% 20.40% 0.37 0.135 0.251 0.7 0.31

I included OPS in this exercise to give you an idea of how closely that category relates to wOBA. Since there were 54 qualifiers, I split the results into two tables. The first table consists of the players who produced a .370+ wOBA (considered a “great” mark) across the 2013-14 seasons, is sorted by wOBA, and can be seen here:

Name Team PA HR R RBI BB% K% BB/K ISO AVG OPS wOBA
Troy Tulowitzki COL 887 46 143 134 12.10% 16.00% 0.75 0.243 0.323 0.974 0.419
Miguel Cabrera DET 1337 69 204 246 11.20% 15.80% 0.71 0.248 0.329 0.983 0.418
Mike Trout LAA 1421 63 224 208 13.60% 22.50% 0.6 0.254 0.305 0.964 0.413
Jose Abreu CWS 622 36 80 107 8.20% 21.10% 0.39 0.264 0.317 0.964 0.411
Paul Goldschmidt ARI 1189 55 178 194 13.70% 21.40% 0.64 0.246 0.302 0.946 0.403
Andrew McCutchen PIT 1322 46 186 167 12.30% 16.30% 0.75 0.209 0.316 0.931 0.402
Michael Cuddyer COL 745 30 106 115 8.10% 17.40% 0.46 0.212 0.331 0.929 0.401
Hanley Ramirez LAD 848 33 126 128 9.80% 16.00% 0.61 0.216 0.308 0.907 0.394
Joey Votto CIN 998 30 133 96 18.20% 18.70% 0.97 0.177 0.291 0.891 0.389
Jayson Werth WAS 1161 41 169 164 12.30% 18.40% 0.67 0.187 0.304 0.887 0.389
Steve Pearce BAL 521 25 65 62 10.60% 19.40% 0.54 0.236 0.284 0.891 0.389
Jose Bautista TOR 1201 63 183 176 14.40% 15.00% 0.96 0.239 0.274 0.896 0.388
Edwin Encarnacion TOR 1163 70 165 202 12.40% 12.40% 1 0.27 0.27 0.903 0.388
Giancarlo Stanton MIA 1142 61 151 167 14.70% 27.10% 0.54 0.251 0.271 0.904 0.387
Yasiel Puig LAD 1072 35 158 111 9.60% 20.60% 0.47 0.197 0.305 0.888 0.387
David Ortiz BOS 1202 65 143 207 12.60% 15.20% 0.83 0.255 0.286 0.916 0.384
Freddie Freeman ATL 1337 41 182 187 11.70% 19.90% 0.59 0.177 0.303 0.871 0.38
Adrian Beltre TEX 1304 49 167 169 8.20% 11.70% 0.7 0.181 0.319 0.88 0.379
Victor Martinez DET 1309 46 155 186 9.50% 7.90% 1.19 0.178 0.317 0.876 0.374
Robinson Cano – – – 1346 41 158 189 9.40% 11.40% 0.82 0.171 0.314 0.868 0.373
Carlos Gonzalez COL 717 37 107 108 8.40% 26.20% 0.32 0.25 0.276 0.864 0.372
Chris Davis BAL 1198 79 168 210 11.00% 31.10% 0.35 0.287 0.247 0.873 0.371
Adam Lind TOR 839 29 105 107 9.40% 18.00% 0.52 0.189 0.301 0.856 0.371
Matt Holliday STL 1269 42 186 184 11.30% 14.70% 0.77 0.179 0.285 0.843 0.371

This first table contains 24 players, and is quite the impressive list. The cream of the crop mixing patience and pop. I’m a poet and I don’t even know it! Well, not really. Some thoughts and observations:

• As you can see, OPS correlates closely with wOBA throughout these results. However, you can see the slight differences between them if you look closely. For example, Adrian Beltre has a higher ISO and batting average than Freddie Freeman, but Freeman’s wOBA edges out Beltre’s due to his much higher BB% (11.7% to 8.2%), while Beltre holds a slight edge in OPS.

• Speaking of Freeman, let’s compare his seasonal averages over the past two years to another qualifier on this list – Matt Holliday:

Freeman: 91 R, 20.5 HR, 93.5 RBI, 2 SB, .303 BA

Holliday: 93 R, 21 HR, 92 RBI, 5 SB, .285 BA

As you can see in the above comparison of their respective 5×5 stat lines as well as some of the more advanced metrics that are included in the table, their numbers have been quite similar across the board. In ESPN drafts, Freeman’s current ADP is 26.3 while Holliday’s is 84.7.

• These search requirements focusing on on-base skills result in mostly balanced R/RBI production throughout the list. Some players such as Ortiz and Davis skew more toward the RBI side while Votto and Puig are heavier on the runs side. That might change for Puig if he sticks in the 3rd spot in the Dodgers lineup this season.

• How much regression in Cuddyer’s numbers can be expected after trading Coors Field for Citi Field in the offseason? Does the soon-to-be 36 year old outfielder have anything left in the tank? The good news is that it won’t cost you much to find out the answers to those questions (NFBC ADP 0f 249.68, ESPN is 211.7).

Table #2 features the players who produced a wOBA between .340 (considered to be “above average”) and .370 and can be seen here:

Name Team PA HR R RBI BB% K% BB/K ISO AVG OPS wOBA
Josh Donaldson OAK 1363 53 182 191 11.20% 17.60% 0.63 0.2 0.277 0.84 0.367
Buster Posey SF 1200 37 133 161 8.90% 11.60% 0.77 0.168 0.303 0.838 0.364
Shin-Soo Choo – – – 1241 34 165 94 13.70% 21.30% 0.64 0.157 0.266 0.811 0.362
Mike Napoli BOS 1078 40 128 147 14.00% 29.70% 0.47 0.199 0.254 0.818 0.361
Justin Upton ATL 1284 56 171 172 10.50% 25.90% 0.41 0.211 0.267 0.826 0.36
Matt Carpenter STL 1426 19 225 137 11.70% 14.70% 0.8 0.133 0.296 0.813 0.36
Carlos Santana CLE 1302 47 143 159 15.80% 18.00% 0.88 0.191 0.25 0.812 0.359
Anthony Rizzo CHC 1306 55 160 158 11.40% 18.60% 0.61 0.212 0.258 0.822 0.359
Jonathan Lucroy MIL 1235 31 132 151 9.10% 11.30% 0.8 0.169 0.291 0.817 0.357
Bryce Harper WAS 892 33 112 90 11.10% 22.20% 0.5 0.184 0.273 0.815 0.356
Brandon Belt SF 806 29 106 94 8.70% 23.40% 0.37 0.196 0.275 0.816 0.355
Brandon Moss OAK 1085 55 143 168 10.80% 27.00% 0.4 0.234 0.244 0.813 0.353
Lucas Duda NYM 980 45 116 125 12.70% 24.20% 0.52 0.214 0.242 0.806 0.353
Joe Mauer MIN 1026 15 122 102 11.80% 18.00% 0.65 0.123 0.3 0.805 0.353
Matt Kemp LAD 889 31 112 122 8.30% 24.90% 0.33 0.189 0.281 0.81 0.352
Ryan Zimmerman WAS 873 31 110 117 9.40% 19.50% 0.48 0.184 0.276 0.804 0.351
Ryan Braun MIL 833 28 98 119 8.20% 20.30% 0.4 0.191 0.275 0.805 0.349
Jhonny Peralta – – – 1076 32 111 130 8.60% 19.50% 0.44 0.169 0.28 0.794 0.349
Prince Fielder – – – 890 28 101 122 11.20% 15.80% 0.71 0.165 0.273 0.8 0.348
Dexter Fowler – – – 997 20 132 77 13.10% 21.40% 0.62 0.133 0.27 0.775 0.347
David Wright NYM 1078 26 117 121 9.00% 17.80% 0.51 0.15 0.286 0.791 0.346
Daniel Nava BOS 944 16 118 103 8.90% 18.40% 0.48 0.119 0.289 0.776 0.345
Anthony Rendon WAS 1077 28 151 118 8.30% 16.10% 0.51 0.166 0.279 0.788 0.345
Neil Walker PIT 1122 39 136 129 8.50% 15.40% 0.55 0.182 0.262 0.784 0.345
John Jaso OAK 593 12 73 61 11.10% 17.70% 0.63 0.14 0.267 0.765 0.342
Kyle Seager SEA 1349 47 150 165 8.90% 17.80% 0.5 0.176 0.264 0.776 0.341
Russell Martin PIT 966 26 96 122 12.10% 19.30% 0.63 0.146 0.256 0.764 0.341
Chris Carter HOU 1157 66 132 170 10.90% 34.10% 0.32 0.246 0.225 0.785 0.341
Christian Yelich MIA 933 13 128 70 10.80% 21.80% 0.5 0.116 0.285 0.765 0.341
Devin Mesoraco CIN 792 34 85 122 8.20% 20.70% 0.4 0.198 0.257 0.782 0.34

• Lots of potential rebound candidates appear on this second list. Choo, Napoli, Mauer, Zimmerman, Braun, Fielder, and Wright just to name a few. Were their injuries and disappointing results in ’14 a sign of things to come or just a blip on the radar?

• Several catchers qualified here as well. Posey and Lucroy have established themselves as elite producers at the position. Jaso, Martin, and Mesoraco have proven to be capable options too. Jaso in particular is looks like a useful player to utilize in the RCL format if punting or streaming the catcher position is a strategy that you plan on using.

• Upton and Rizzo get dinged slightly when sorting by wOBA instead of OPS, while Choo, Napoli, and Santana get rewarded for their high BB-rates.

OPS or wOBA – which metric do you place more emphasis on?

 

 

 
  1. GhostTownSteve says:
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    Gee what do you know partner…yet another list topped by my boy Tulo.

    If I may follow your thematic lead for a moment….yes he is “frah-GEE-lay”.

    • GhostTownSteve says:
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      @GhostTownSteve:

      15 team roto picking from the 12.

      Tulo Puig Harvey

      or

      Tulo Stras Aranado

      or

      Tulo Stras AGon

      ?

      • Big Magoo

        Big Magoo says:
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        @GhostTownSteve: If you’re targeting Soler and perhaps a couple of other upsidey players later on (Pederson, Souza, Odor, etc.), the Stras/A-Gon combo is the safest.

        The Puig/Harvey option is dripping with upside though. If you think you have a shot at A-Gon coming back in the 4th, I like that combo the best.

        • GhostTownSteve says:
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          @Big Magoo:

          Tulo
          Puig
          Aranado
          Harvey
          Soler
          Cole
          Betts

          ?

          ADP plausable.

          • Big Magoo

            Big Magoo says:
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            @GhostTownSteve: Swinging for the fences with that start. If you connect, it’s like one of the moonshots from Mark McGwire’s BP displays from the late ’90s. Can you live with the floor?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @GhostTownSteve: Frah-GEE-lay but beautiful when his full glory. Just need to have some crazy glue on hand for when he breaks.

  2. Zeus says:
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    In a 12 team obp league I have the first pick. Any particular targets for the 24 and 25 picks?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Zeus: Congrats on winning the Trout sweepstakes! Puig, Hanley, and Donaldson would be good targets at the 2-3 turn. Harper and Cano get a boost in that format as well.

      • Zeus says:
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        @Big Magoo: those are who I was thinking. Just wondering if they fall. If they don’t I may go Grey’s route in LABR and use one of those picks on a pitcher.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Zeus: Felix, Scherzer, and Strasburg are all viable options there as well. There should be a nice pool of available players to choose from at that spot in the draft.

  3. job3rd says:
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    I thought I would put more emphasis on OPS, but this wOBA spits out a nice list. I may have to reconsider Pearce, Napoli, Belt, Moss & Duda. They may all improve on last year’s numbers and be a ‘value’ based on current ADP. Good stuff!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @job3rd: Yeah, I think all of those players look like solid values this season. Not sure that Duda will improve upon last year’s numbers, but he doesn’t need to in order to return a profit. Thanks!

  4. Duda Want to Build a Snowman? says:
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    Where would you rank Votto among 1B in an OBP + OPS league (no AVG)? I find in mocks that if I miss out on the Round 1 guys, I have a hard time justifying any other 1B besides Votto, despite his low power.

    PS. Not the subject of this article, but I LOVE how good Springer and Joc look from a wOBA perspective–particularly when ESPN and Yahoo draft lobbies only project AVG (even if that stat is irrelevant).

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Duda Want to Build a Snowman?: Votto is a tough call due to his health issues, but he probably gets a bigger boost in value in an OBP format than any other player. I would say that he’s a top 20 hitter in that format for sure, and maybe even top 15, depending on how risk averse you are.

      Springer and Pederson are interesting players in a standard 5×5 format, and they look even better in leagues that don’t include batting average as a category.

  5. de nachos says:
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    Tulo yum dropping to round 2. David Murphy cleared for spittin and scratchin! Thanks to that movie I’ve never had my tongue frozen stuck to anything worse than a pudding pop. Yeesh there’s a Cosby joke in there somewhere. I love the way you end your articles with a sincere pointed question. Not that I’m bright enough to answer said question, but it’s warm and welcoming nonetheless.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @de nachos: FCL in the house! Nice grab on Tulo. His skills aren’t in question. Just has to stay on the field. I gave him a hard look, but ultimately didn’t have the stomach to pull the trigger. If he plays in 120 games, you’re good to go. More than that and he’s a steal.

      That’s not the only thing that Flick used his tongue on… Can’t link to it here…

      I’m always looking for different perspectives, angles, strategies, etc. That’s the beauty of all of these advanced metrics, and even some of the basic ones. They’re all useful in different ways.

  6. Uncle Red says:
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    Super helpful as I have a draft this Saturday which uses OPS as opposed to BB & AVG. HR is still a category though… I pick at the end of round 1. Any advice? Who should I realistically hope to get?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Uncle Red: OPS + HR but no AVG. 12 team mixed league? At the first turn, Rizzo, Encarnacion, Bautista, and Puig would be solid options. Players like Chris Davis and Carlos Santana are more valuable in this format as well.

  7. bossmanjunior says:
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    What do you think of this draft layout in a 10 team h2h league where I have the first pick. Yahoo style with only 1 UTL, so only 9 offensive positions.

    1. Trout OF
    20. Donaldson 3B
    21. Desmond SS
    40. Marte/Dickerson OF
    41. Pujols/Ortiz 1B
    60. Harvey SP
    61. Cole/Arrieta/Wood SP
    80. C. Davis UTL
    81. Kipnis/Betts 2B
    100. DeGrom SP
    101. Carrasco SP
    120. Wacha SP
    121. Moss OF
    140. McHugh SP
    141. Benoit RP
    160. Casilla RP
    161. Shoemaker SP
    180. Polanco OF/BN
    181. Salazar SP
    200. Paxton/Walker SP
    201. Mejia/Gregerson RP
    220. Ramos/Grandal/D’arnaud C

    The main areas I am torn are between Marte/Dickerson, Pujols/Ortiz, Kipnis/Betts, and Cole/Arrieta/Wood. Any opinions or insight would be much appreciated. As crazy as it sounds, I actually find this shallow league a little more difficult that your typical RCL league because luck plays that much more of a factor and you pretty much have to hit on all of your picks.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @bossmanjunior: Looks like a good list of targets to me. If you think that you’ll be able to get DeGrom, Carrasco, Wacha, etc. in the middle rounds, you can probably grab another bat at the 6-7 turn instead of Cole/Arrieta/Wood. Harvey + those other SPs that you have listed there would make a fine pitching staff. I’d probably pass on Gregerson for a higher K option like Cecil if you need another RP at that spot.

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Big Magoo:

        Good call on Cecil, I was just thinking of names towards the end of the draft. So yeah, basically someone like that at the end.

        A lot of that list is an ideal outcome. With Harvey ranked #59, there is a good chance he doesn’t fall to me at pick 60, but Im really hoping he does. Otherwise it will be two of Cole/Wood/Arrieta at pick 60/61 and hopefully Carrasco (#113) at pick 100. Like Harvey, there is a chance DeGrom doesn’t fall to me, but hopefully there will be some good value. Wacha should definitely be gettable in Yahoo, they have him at #165 so I might reach at pick 120/121 or 140/141 at the latest.

        Its nice knowing where you draft to a degree, but its torture trying to plan the best path to take. In a real draft, there is always someone I don’t expect to fall that does and likewise there is always a few reaches on guys I want as well.

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @bossmanjunior: I think that you have a solid draft strategy going in. One thing that I have learned from playing in many 10 teamers over the years is that positional scarcity essentially doesn’t exist in a league that shallow. Don’t feel the need to take Desmond at the 2-3 turn unless he’s the best player on your board at that time. Elite performers, regardless of position, are more important in those types of leagues. Lean upside over safety if you’re debating between two or more players at a particular spot in the draft. There’s always going to be a useable option available on the wire.

        • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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          @bossmanjunior: you don’t need to pay for 2 SP at 60/61. if you trust Grey SP rankings (pitcher pairings post, nearly the bottom thing on “rankings” link). You’ll need slightly better than his pairings post says, but not by that much.

    • jal179 says:
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      @bossmanjunior:

      Harveysranking jumped WAY up on Yahoo recentl– I think u will have to take him in rd 5 cuz he wont last. Same with Betts.

      I’d go Marte and Pujols

  8. Alex says:
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    League is C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, 3OF, 2UT, 11 teams, five keepers per team as first five picks. 7×7 with obp and slg

    If you owned J Up, Freeman, Cano and Dickerson already, would you be okay keeping yelich over ortiz despite his amazing OPS?

    Other options are lester, soler and seager

    Thanks for the list

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Alex: I think that you can make arguments for all of those players as your last keeper, but Ortiz projects as a four category beast and a top 20 hitter in this format. I’d be hard pressed to pass on him for Yelich.

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Alex: But if you’re looking for the best combination of current and future value, Yelich and Soler are superior options to Ortiz. It depends on who you think you might be able to reacquire in the draft too.

  9. sport says:
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    Great stuff once again Mr. Magoo! You have become my favorite columnist here at Razzball. Does that make you the ‘sleeper’ or even the Cinderella? Speaking of sleepers, I have heard more about Pearce in the 2 weeks than any other time. He sounds like a nice pick up but I don’t own him any where. Wish I did, but like I said, I haven’t heard much about him until a couple of your columns.

    Question: Would you, or any other writers here, be interested in putting together a tiered type of list on SP? It would have three tiers; First, the starting pitchers who you should start every game no matter the matchup. Second, SP that you should not drop, but need to stream with care. And third, the droppable list, that who cares if someone picks them up after you drop them, Streamonator will just find you another to pick up.

    Does this sound like something that could be a usable tool or list, or am I just pissing in the wind?

    Thanks for stuff and feedback.

  10. Dave says:
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    I’m in a 12 team roto 5X5 OBP keeper league with weekly lineups. We start C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, 5 OF, UTL, 9 P, and 6 bench. We keep 2 bats and 2 pitchers this year but next year we will be keeping 4 bats and 4 pitchers. My current keepers are Tulo, Crush Davis, Gerrit Cole, and Michael Wacha. I have the 2nd pick and the two best players are Abreu and Miggy. So i’m taking either one with my first pick. I really like Soler and I think he could have great keeper value. Is it too early to draft him in the 2nd or 3rd round of my draft? Which would be more like the 6th and 7th round of a regular draft. Heyward and Yelich might also be available. How would you rank the 3 of them in this format? Thanks!

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Dave: I kind of have a man-crush on Soler so no, I don’t think that’s too early for him at all, especially in a keeper league. Having OBP as a category bumps up the values of Heyward and Yelich even more since they produce above average walk rates. I’d probably rank them Yelich, Heyward, then Soler in that format. It’s incredibly close though, and I think that Soler has the highest ceiling of the bunch. I’d try to grab two of those guys at the 2-3 turn if possible.

      • Mike says:
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        @Big Magoo: I’m in an OPS league that also has Walks (and Average… AND Hits… It’s weird) H2H 12 team.

        Would the OPS factor switch up these rankings? And where would a Matt Holliday and a Starling Marte fall into the mix?

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Mike: I don’t think it would change things too much. Just bump up the values of players like Altuve and Brantley a bit since they’re likely to produce elite average and hit totals to go along with solid OPS numbers. The low-average sluggers who post low hit totals like Carter, Trumbo, and Moss can be knocked down slightly as well. Holliday and Marte should be solid players in this format. I wouldn’t adjust their values much if at all.

  11. JoeJ says:
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    1st time playing fantasy baseball but have watched and followed the game for a long time.
    In a 14 team league how does my team look?
    1B: Encarnacion
    2B/SS: Rendon, D Gordon
    3B: Arenado
    OF: A Jones, Springer, M Betts, Carlos Gonzalez
    UTIL: A Laroche, Revere, Odor, Pederson, Baez (in case he figures it out)

    P: Cueto, Tehran, J Fernandez, A Sanchez, H Bailey, Z Britton, Rondon

    Thanks

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @JoeJ: Your offense looks very strong for a 14 team league. Pitching is solid but could use a bit more depth, especially considering the fact that Fernandez is likely to miss at least half of the season. I’d look to add another pitcher at the expense of Baez if possible.

      • JoeJ says:
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        @Big Magoo:
        Thanks. Went Encarnacion/Jones/Rendon/Cueto/Ellsbury. I wasn’t going to take another batter after Cueto but Ellsbury dropped bigtime for some reason so couldn’t pass. Would taking Greinke or Zimmerman have been better?

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @JoeJ: I don’t see Ellsbury listed in the roster that you posted. No, I think that taking him over those SPs was the right call. Not sure what pitchers are available on the wire (Lackey? Paxton? Walker? Hahn? Greene?), but Bailey’s been having health issues and Fernandez is guaranteed to miss a few months, so you could probably use another arm. You’re deep at OF, so you could potentially move one of those guys if the wire is thin too.

  12. JoeBoo says:
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    2nd pick in an OPS 5×5 mixed. Stanton?Goldy? Cutch?Abreu?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @JoeBoo: I’d go with Stanton in that format. Cutch is the high floor option. Can’t really go wrong with any of those players though.

  13. Andre says:
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    Magoo! Great write up as always… I’m doing a draft this weekend that uses OBP instead of average…first time ever doing it. Posts like this always give me additional information, especially with something like wOBP which I hadn’t ever considered looking at. So thanks for the info!

    This question may be a bit off topic but it involves numbers ..so maybe not. Yesterday, Tori Hunter came out and said Buxton is Trout 2.0. Obviously Buxton is a 5-tool talent but I have to believe some of that was hyperbole. And considering they play REAL baseball. Things like defense, running and throwing matter more….in your opinion, from a fantasy perspective which prospect/young player looks the most like the next Trout or even McCutchen? I keep going back to the numbers Carlos Gonzalez put up in 2013 where on a per-plate appearance, his numbers were extremely similar to Trouts. Or how last year with the drop in Trouts steals, McCutchen and Stantons numbers were very similar to his. Aside from the obvious answers… a.k.a Buxton….who would you say would be that next player fantasy players should be on the lookout for ?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Andre: Thanks! Trout is a once-in-a-generation type of talent, so it would be very difficult for another prospect to reach that level regardless of how good he looks in the minors. That being said, Buxton probably has the best mix of power/speed/average potential of any prospect. He could put up McCutchen-like numbers in a few years. Players like Bryant, Sano, and Soler could put up 30+ homer seasons in the near future. Betts looks like the real deal – .290/15/25 as soon as this season potentially.

      • Andre says:
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        @Big Magoo:

        I agree with Trout being a generational talent…Looking at Buxton in spring training, I couldn’t help but see McCutchen more than Trout. I don’t think his power will grow to that level….that being said having a career even CLOSE to McCutchen would be great for the Twins.

        With that being said….in a long term keeper league, who are you going all out for if you only had one spot in your minor leagues and could only keep them max 3yrs and Buxton wasn’t an option?

        • Big Magoo

          Big Magoo says:
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          @Andre: Yeah, I agree that a McCutchen-like career would be a great result for Buxton and Twins fans. Even a peak like Gomez or Marte would be very solid.

          Can you keep them for three years in the minors before promoting them or just three years total? If three years total, I’d focus on the players who could make an immediate impact this season – Bryant, Soler, Pederson, and maybe Buxton. If you can wait on a minor leaguer for a little while, Russell, Correa, Sano, and even Moncada would be solid options.

  14. Dave says:
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    Any chance you would go soler over ortiz in obp/slg/avg 7×7 this season? Or just don’t get cute and go ortiz?

    • Big Magoo

      Big Magoo says:
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      @Dave: In a redraft, I’d stick with Ortiz. He’s always among the league leaders in slugging and on-base percentage. In a keeper/dynasty, I’d probably go with Soler. There’ll probably be a decent gap between the two players this season in that format, but Soler projects well going forward.

  15. A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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    interesting that wOBA give more value to OBP than OPS. i read somewhere that the proper way to value slug and OBP would be to give 1.75 value to OBP and 1 to Slug, wOBA might do this exactly. it may have been Baseball by the Numbers, the book. So, if true, just taking 1.75 times OB% and Slug would give us the optimal number for evaluating hitters.

    • A Wesley Snipes Life says:
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      @A Wesley Snipes Life: sorry, 1.75 X OBP and 1 X slug, and add the two.

      • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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        @A Wesley Snipes Life: so OBP would be worth 75% more than slug, according to what i read. If wOBA doesn’t have this exact ratio, i would be curious what it’s ratio is .

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