Hey guys! Today, I’ll be looking at outfielders that I think are currently overvalued and undervalued in dynasty leagues. I’ll be referencing their overall rank and rank among outfielders based on the expert consensus at Fantasy Pros. I’ve selected some guys that are currently going at the top of the draft, a few rounds after the top and then in the middle. Let’s get right to it!
Andrew McCutchen (#6 overall, #3 OF) – This isn’t at all to say I don’t like McCutchen. He’s an amazing player who has a long track record of staying healthy. My problem is that if I was starting a 12-15 man dynasty league today, there’s no chance that I’m taking McCutchen in the first round, let alone at 6th overall. This is because of the steep dropoff he’s had in the stolen base department. After years of getting 20+ steals, he had 18 in 2014 and 11 in 2015. From 2010 to 2015, here are his attempted steal totals: 43 (33 SB + 10 CS), 33 (23+10), 32 (20+12), 37, (27+10), 21 (18+3), 16 (11+5). He’s going to be 29 this year so it makes logical sense for his steals to start declining. His counting stats are going to be strong, his average will be around .300 and Cutch should hit 20-25 bombs, but if he only gets 10-15 steals, that’s not a first rounder in normal leagues. In dynasties, that pushes him even further down the totem pole because McCutchen’s decline is approaching us.
Adam Jones (49th overall, #18 OF) – I don’t want a piece of Jones in redrafts this year, let along dynasties. After years of double digit steals, Jones had 7 in 2014 and 3 in 2015. He was never a good OBP guy but last season was his worst in Baltimore at .308. That’s going to be a damper on his counting stats. The homers have gone 39,36,30,25 the last 4 years. Granted, he missed more time last year than almost the previous five years combined but can you count on a guy who will be 30 or 31 all year to stay healthy? Say Jones hit 25 bombs again with 5 steals, .270 average and decent counting stats. Is that really someone you want to take with a top 50 pick? A top 75 pick? I’d rather stay away.
Yasiel Puig (51st overall, #20 OF) – Last year was an epic disaster for Puig. Besides missing half of the season because of injuries, most notably a hamstring, his approach at the plate took massive steps backwards. In his three seasons, Puig has had two massive hot streaks and then months of being cold. Could he repeat 2014 again when he had 92/16/69/11/.296? I suppose it’s not impossible but I would bet against it. Is that player even worth going 51st overall? Probably not. Taking Puig in that spot gives you little upside and so much downside that I’m not taking the gamble anywhere near 51st overall.
Adam Eaton (75th overall, #25 OF) – After Eaton flopped hard in his first year in Chicago, he had a nice season last year for the White Sox. That said, 75th overall? Really? Eaton hit 14 bombs last year and very fortunate to do so; I’d expect him to be back in single digits this year. He had 18 steals last year which is nice but nothing special. He’ll pile up the runs because he has a strong OBP (although the increase in strikeouts is worrisome) but why am I taking this guy in the first 10 rounds, let alone at 75th overall? Eaton is a prime example of a player who is better in real life than standard fantasy leagues. I’d have him as a #4 or even #5 OF in 12’ers, there’s no way I’d have him as a bottom end #2 or top end #3.
Jorge Soler (105th overall, #34 OF) – I like Soler plenty as a player and he’s only 24 years old. The problem is that his playing time looks to be limited and I’m not taking someone in the first 8-10 rounds who might only start 110ish games. Joe Maddon has a history of working the better side of platoons and with Soler, Kyle Schwarber, Jason Heyward, Dexter Fowler, Javier Baez and Ben Zobrist battling for three outfield spots and second base, Soler’s playing time has a hard cap on it barring multiple injuries. Could he hit value at 105th overall? If the Cubs traded him, sure. But for now, it looks like the base lineup for the Cubs will be Schwarber in LF, Fowler in CF, Heyward in RF and Zobrist at 2B so I’m staying away from Soler.
Underrated Outfielders:
Giancarlo Stanton (20th overall, #9 OF) – Yes, I know that Stanton is an injury risk. Yes, the Marlins have a horrible lineup. Twentieth overall is insane to me. He hit 27 homers and 67 RBI in 74 games last season. Only 20 players hit 30 home runs last season and Stanton almost did it in half of a season. While it might not matter too much because he has 80 power, the Marlins are moving the fences in and lower which certainly can’t hurt. If Stanton plays even 140 games, he should be better than 20th overall because of the lack of power around the league. If he stays healthy, which I think is more realistic than people believe due to the flukiness of his injuries, Stanton could hit 50+ bombs and would be a clear first rounder. For redrafts and dynasties, I rank Stanton as the #3 OF behind the big two. The thought of taking A.J. Pollock or Charlie Blackmon over Stanton (#4 and #7 OF respectively) makes me cringe.
George Springer (22nd overall, #10 OF) – I love me some Springer. Despite playing 24 more games in 2015 than 2014, Springer struck out 5 less times, going from a 33% K% to 24% while walking at the same rate. He’s a virtual lock for 20/20 with the upside for a lot more. Do I think he’ll go 40/20? No but if he did it wouldn’t make my jaw drop. Well, it would because that’s amazing but not because of shock. I think he has an excellent chance of 30/20 this year with a solid average and excellent counting stats. I don’t have much problem with Springer being 22nd overall for redrafts but for dynasties, he’s pushing the top 10 for me. I’d have Springer as the #4 or #5 OF in dynasties depending on where you slot Mookie Betts. Springer clearly has a superstar ceiling and we’ve already seen that his floor is quite high as well.
Gregory Polanco (72nd overall, #23 OF) – In half of a season in 2014, Polanco hit 7 HR and stole 14 bases but hit .235 due to a poor BABIP. Last year, Polanco got his average up to .256 and stole 27 bases but only hit 9 homers despite making harder contact that in 2014. Basically, Polanco was extremely unlucky to hit only 9 bombs last year; I’d expect 15ish homers this year. Add in the fact that he should get around 100 runs leading off and hit for a decent average and you’re left with someone closer to the top 20 overall than 72nd. Only 4 guys in the entire league went 15+/30+ last year: A.J. Pollock, Charlie Blackmon, Jose Altuve, Starling Marte. Strong company that Polanco can definitely join. There’s a ton of value here.
Billy Hamilton (77th overall, #25 OF) – This is strictly for roto leagues; I don’t like owning specialists in head to head leagues where you can stream steals (SAGNOF!) if necessary. This is more based on feel than numbers but it seems to be that Hamilton is a bit too low. Only 7 players stole 30 bases last season which Hamilton can do backwards. He brought more value to any one category last season than any other player per the Razzball Player Rater and should do so again. Hamilton was also much better on the bases last season stealing 57 and only being caught 8 times after stealing 56 and being caught 23 times in 2014. This is not a fluke because players gain the ability to read pitchers better the more they are in the league. The biggest thing to me is that the Reds are a dumpster fire meaning two positive things for Hamilton. One is that he should leadoff the entire season. The team needs to find out if he’s their CF and leafoff hitter for the future and there’s no better time than the present. Second is that because the Reds are playing for nothing, Hamilton is going to have the green light every time he gets on base. Would it shock me if the Reds try to let him get 100 stolen bases? No because it’ll bring people to the park when nothing else will besides seeing him and Joey Votto. I think he was ranked too high going into last season but his ranking now overcompensates. Hamilton played last year at an 81 steal pace over 162 games and that was with a .274 OBP. If he can get that to even .310, I think his floor is 80 steals.
Khris Davis (170th overall, #48 OF) – I was going to include Delino DeShields but I figured Grey already covered all the bases on him. I just want to briefly say that I agree with Grey that DeShields is prime for a breakout and is somebody you should target everywhere. Moving on, Davis hit 27 homers in 121 games last year and it was no fluke; he absolutely crushes the baseball. I know people are concerned about him moving from Milwaukee to Oakland but with how far he hits the ball, it shouldn’t hurt him too much. He should also cleanup in Oakland and play every day. As I mentioned above, only 20 players his 30 homers last season. Davis is a great bet to get there this year health permitting so why is he being drafted as a 4th or even 5th OF depending on league size? Yes, the steals aren’t there and the average isn’t good but it’s also not going to kill you. I think Davis is a strong #3 OF in 12’ers this year as he’s in his prime.
That’s all for now guys. As always, feel free to ask any questions or leave any comments below and I’ll do my best to answer them. If you haven’t had your drafts yet, best of luck in the upcoming 10 days or so until the season starts. Take care everyone!
