Analytics Anonymous: Starting Pitcher Value

I’m back to host the second meeting of Analytics Anonymous, 2024 edition.  Today is all about pitching.  Specifically, we’re going to look at Starting Pitching (SP) value.

For those who’ve read my work over the past year may remember a few analyses on this topic.  The major piece was published on February 6, 2023 under the title, “How Sexy is Ciara – Ummm I Mean Siera.”  Now, that’s a catchy title.  Do yourself a favor and take a quick peek at the eye candy in that one!  The picture of Ciara is pretty good too!

In that one, I discussed how a colleague (@everywhereblair) came to the conclusion that “The top fantasy pitchers almost always have top 10 finishes in innings pitched (IP), K-BB% and SIERA rates.”  In that first piece, I ran with the hypothesis and looked at SP value – cumulatively ranking the top pitchers in those three categories with their respective NFBC ADP.  I checked in on those metrics a couple times during the season and found they generally did a good job predicting SP performance.  So, I’m going to do that exercise again here.

But first, let’s do a quick review of the three categories and how I come to the cumulative rankings:

IP Data

I started with the “simple” projection of IP.  Anyone who’s done projections knows there’s nothing “easy” about them, but I digress.  Specifically, I utilized Razzball’s projections (Razzball 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections) and ranked the top 200+ (211, to be exact) pitchers based on the number of innings pitched.  So, Gerrit Cole and Framber Valdez (187.9 IP) both get a 1, Zach Wheeler, Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Zac Gallen, Aaron Nola, and Logan Gilbert (184.8) all get 3, and so on.

SIERA

Like the FIP (Field Independent Pitching) and xFIP, SIERA is an advanced analytic that strives to determine the underlying skill level of the pitcher.  Unlike the FIP though, SIERA attempts to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful.  As FanGraphs puts it, “SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching.”  Here’s how pitchers are generally rated in this category:

For this analysis, I used the same source as before (Razzball’s projections) and performed the same wizardry in Excel (sorting is easy but that rank equation…) to come up with the respective SP rankings.

K-BB%

You guessed it, more Excel.  For this one though, I pulled K-BB% off FanGraphs and matched them up with the appropriate pitcher.  A little monotonous and time-consuming but there’s nothing I won’t do for my fantasy baseball friends.

Once I have all three pieces, it’s simple math to sum up the respective ranks.  Like golf, the lowest score wins!

IP – SIERA – K-BB%

Here is a summary table that illustrates the results for the top 15 SPs.  For instance, Gerrit Cole scored the best with a sum score of 22.  That value comes from IP (1^st), SIERA (13^th) and K-BB% (8^th).  Note though that he’s the 2^nd SP off the board with an ADP of 15.2.

Those two highlighted columns are the important variables for the figure below.  But before I get to that, let me tell you which ADP values I used.

ADP

I ran these numbers about a week ago after I participated in my EARTH fantasy baseball draft.  What is the EARTH fantasy baseball league, you ask?

Coined as “The Official Local Area Fantasy Baseball League Competition,” EARTH is a collection of fantasy leagues across the country (and one in Canada now) where a bunch of industry folks (mostly) come together to compete against each other for charity.  Each league is regionally based and promotes live drafts as much as possible.  We are up to 11 teams now: GLARF – Great Lakes Area Roto Fantasy, BARF – Bay Area Roto Fantasy, DARF – DC Roto Fantasy, TARF – Texas Area Roto Fantasy, etc.  You can read the EARTH League Charter HERE and follow along at @EARTHFantasyBaseball on X.

The EARTH drafts are scheduled in early-to-mid February and helps to generate the spring ADP lists before the major leagues (TGFBI, LABR, Tout Wars, RazzSlam, etc.) kick off.  Most importantly though, half of all regional proceeds go directly to that league’s charity.  The league that wins the overall competition also gets to designate the overall EARTH pot to their charity choice at the end of the season.  It’s a lot of fun and promotes healthy competition and camaraderie.  Some of those league prizes are pretty cool too!  Be sure to root for DARF (that’s my league).  We finished 2^nd overall last year so we’re gunning for the top spot this time around.

Back to the draft.  Erik Halterman (@erik_halterman) of Rotowire compiled all 11 drafts and created a useful tool for everyone to use.  You can view it HERE.  This is the ADP source I used for this project.  ADPs are anything but static so don’t worry if the numbers above don’t match what you see right now from your ADP source, for this analysis, we are more interested in the rank.

Results

So, what does this analysis look like when we put it all together?  Your wish is my command:

Here’s a plot of the top 150 SPs versus their respective ADPs.  The short of the long is, every SP dot below the line is considered a value at his ADP.

Let’s chop that figure in half and point out a few of the value SPs.  Notice the four colored circles.  Let’s find out who they are:

Yellow:  At SP24, Zach Eflin is a value because of his relative consistency across the three metrics.  He ranks as the 14^th best SP due to IP (24^th), SIERA (IP, 20^th) and K-BB% (19^th).  In the EARTH drafts, he was being selected amongst the likes of Blake Snell, Eury Perez, and Jesus Luzardo, but shows to be a better value.  Author’s Note: Eflin was the SP23 in my TGFBI league draft this week…to yours truly!

Orange:  At SP37, Carlos Rodon is showing to be a good value at his ADP as well.  He ranks as the 24^th best SP, primarily because of his 20.9% K-BB%, which lands him as 6^th best in the category.  Author’s Note:  You guessed it, I drafted him as well.  This time in my EARTH league (DARF) draft.

Blue:  At SP59, it may surprise some that Braxton Garrett comes in at a value.  He ranks as the 42^nd best SP in the analysis, due to a projected SIERA that ranks him 43^rd and IP at 53^rd.  Author’s Note:  I don’t own him anywhere…yet! (Editor’s Note: I {Truss} have drafted him twice already [Tout & TGFBI])

Red:  Everyone’s looking for value deep in drafts.  Here’s one for you.  At SP70, Nick Lodolo fits the bill.  His rank comes in at 44^th best and puts him right in the neighborhood of Braxton Garrett, but 11 SP picks later.  Similar to Rodon, his 19.8% K-BB% puts him in elite company.  He’s only projected to toss 132 innings (98^thbest) but if he ends up surpassing that number, he should prove to be a tremendous value late in drafts.  See also, Keelin’s report earlier today about Lodolo and some more Razzball love.  Author’s Note:  That little green dot next to Lodolo is Kenta Maeda, by the way.

Speaking of value, there’s plenty of potential value later in draft.  Going back to the first figure above, you’ll note there are a bunch of players below the line.  That right there is why we do analysis like this…looking for gems!

One last thing I want to show you before we put a wrap on the session.

Kodai Senga’s injury was revealed during the DARF draft (unfortunately after he was drafted).  The plot below though shows his projections post-injury at the ADP he was being selected at during the EARTH drafts.  As expected, he comes out well above the line at his former ADP.

Based on his prognosis, he’s projected to return in mid-May and his IP have been reduced to 133 innings. Again, at his pre-injury ADP as the 21^st SP off the board, he shows negative value (above the line).

Assuming he returns to good health, however, his 17^th ranked SIERA (3.66 – better than “above average” in the table above) will bring value to his owners.  But when do you draft him to capitalize on that value?

According to this plot, that’s any time after SP36 – which puts him in the draft range of Carlos Rodon and Jordan Montgomery around picks 135-140.  Understandably, many owners will be leery to draft an injured Senga as their SP3 or SP4.  For those who are less risk-averse, he may just prove to be good value when it’s all said and done.

Class Dismissed

There you have my initial SP analysis.  ADPs constantly change and so will the potential draft value available to you.  Feel free to do this analysis yourself and see if you can identify who your value pitchers are.

Another fun session of Analytics Anonymous (for me anyway) in the books.  I hope you enjoyed the topic as well.  Be sure to let me know your thoughts below as well.

When you come to the Razzball site, you can find me on both on the baseball and football sides.  Just look for “The Lineup Builder” and you’ve found me!  I’m doing QB rankings all offseason in addition to hosting these baseball sessions.  No rest for the weary!

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter/X @Derek_Favret.  I’m now on BlueSky as well (@dfavret.bsky.social).

Until next time, my friends.