This top 20 1st basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball goes to about forty-five. Last year, I said the first base position is going through a transition. Pujols isn’t what he used to be; Howard, Te(i)x and Konerko are washed up; guys like Chris Davis, Hosmer and Trumbo were on the way up. Right, right and yup. The position is still deep in that transition. We’ll come out of the other side this year with a good idea of where we stand. If Pujols continues to fall, if the washed up ones are completely done and if the up-and-comers are still on the move. Hey, that sounds like a commencement speech from a school for porn. Okay, let’s get into it because I can’t count to twenty and this list goes on forever. As always, for each player there’s my projections and where I see tiers starting and ending. There’s the position eligibility chart for 2014 fantasy baseball, and all the 2014 fantasy baseball rankings are under that linkie-ma-whosie. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball:
1. Miguel Cabrera – He doesn’t have 1st base eligibility yet, but will after the first week of the season. I went over my Miggy projections in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
2. Paul Goldschmidt – Went over my Au Shizz projections in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
3. Prince Fielder – Went over my Fielder projections in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
4. Chris Davis – Went over my Davis projections in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
5. Albert Pujols – Went over my Pujols projections in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
6. Joey Votto – Went over my Votto projections in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
7. Edwin Encarnacion – Went over my Encarnacion projections in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.
8. Freddie Freeman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Rizzo. I call this tier, “On the precipice, whatever the hell a precipice is.” You come here because I have the fiercest mustache in all the kingdom. And because I use adjectives like fiercest. And because I tell you like it is. The first baseman rankings here, or anywhere you look at them, will be all over the map. After the top eight, you can make a case for every 1st baseman ranked from 9 through 25. If someone put Adrian Gonzalez where Rizzo is and Rizzo where Trumbo is or where Ryan Howard is and Howard where Trumbo is or Posey where Craig is, I’d understand it even if I don’t fully understand this sentence. And my IQ is like an eleven, if eleven is good, I don’t know. There’s a case to be made to move these rankings around dramatically. There’s no one 1st baseman you can point to in the next 15 or so names that has to be where he is. It’s about as fluid as your stool after three days on a juice diet. With that said (reversal time), I ranked them where I’d draft them with all things being equal. This tier is a bunch of guys that could take a nice step forward, but even without that step forward they should be safe to draft here. As for Freeman, I’m concerned he’s going to hit 20 homers and get around 85 RBIs and not be nearly as valuable as he was last year. Think a bad year from Votto (like last year), and that could be Freeman. Or he can finally hit his power peak and notch 30 homers and a .310 average (think a great Votto year). Like Malcolm and Monie, we’ll probably find ourselves somewhere in the middle. 2014 Projections: 85/25/102/.288/2
9. Eric Hosmer – After he bottomed out in 2012 (.232 average), he rebounded nicely when he stopped pulling balls into the shift. That reminds me of an aggressive girl from high school. She used to pull balls into my shift. If Hosmer takes a step forward as he should, he could be David Wright at 1st base — think 24 homers, 15 steals and a .300+ average. He made great contact last year, dropped his K-rate and hits third behind two guys that should be on base all the time. His one big flaw is he doesn’t hit a whole lot of fly balls. He had the 13th worst fly ball rate near guys like Eric Young and Gerardo Parra. Can’t really hit homers if you don’t hit the ball in the air, said Mr. Obvious. 2014 Projections: 89/18/98/.305/14
10. Anthony Rizzo – His downside is obviously a lot more pronounced than Hosmer and Freeman. I believe it goes like this: doun•sighed. His upside is huge compared to Freeman and Hosmer. If Rizzo hits .260, he’ll be a top seven 1st baseman. All that is standing between him and glory is about fifteen extra hits. That’s about one extra hit every ten games. A 1-for-4 instead of an 0-for-4 every ten games. His K-rate wasn’t obscene by any stretch of the imagination. Joey Votto had a worse strikeout rate last year. Wanna find a guy that could be Au Shizz this year? Here’s your guy. Easily has 30+ homer power and can steal ten bases. Average is the only thing holding him back. You’re not going to find Rizzo ranked as high anywhere else, but don’t let that scare you off. This is a trust exercise. Fall back into my arms; I’ll catch you. To read more, I already went over my Anthony Rizzo sleeper. 2014 Projections: 82/28/92/.256/8
11. Adrian Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Abreu. I call this tier, “Can talk myself into or out of just about any of these guys.” Good case can be made that the bottom has already bottomed out for a few of these guys. Or they’ve had years in the past where the bottom has dropped out and they’ve rebounded in succeeding years. Adrian Gonzalez falls in the “The Bottom Has Dropped Out Already But He Can Still Be Productive” category. That manila folder has an extra long tab to fit the category name. A-Gon’s never hitting 30 homers again. Maybe he’s a Latin 31; I don’t know, but he got old fast. Sadly, if he missed the road games in Coors, he wouldn’t have even hit 20 homers last year. He would’ve had 19 homers. The only thing holding back A-Gon from being total garbage is his health. If he fails to get 600+ plate appearances one year, he’s gonna look like Todd Helton. Hmm, I’ve just talked myself into not wanting A-Gon. 2014 Projections: 86/20/94/.285/1
12. Mark Trumbo – Have I mentioned yet that you better have a 1st baseman before getting to this tier? Have I mentioned yet that you better have a 1st baseman before getting to this tier? Have I mentioned yet that you better have a 1st baseman before getting to this tier? Damn, I shouldn’t have wrote this post while in a cave. There’s a terrible echo. Trumbo is really more a corner infidel. All of these guys are. All what guys? The guys in this tier, Random Italicized Voice. Oh, gotcha, sorry, I’m hungover, February Grey got me drunk last night. To read about Trumbo after he was traded, see my Mark Trumbo 2014 fantasy. It was written with my feet. 2014 Projections: 74/33/89/.244/5
13. Jose Abreu – I already went over my Jose Abreu fantasy. I wrote it while dodging the IRS. 2014 Projections: 78/26/88/.268/2
13a. David Ortiz – This is a new tier. This tier is Ortiz and Butler. I call this tier, “Do they have 1st base eligibility? I have no idea.” All of my position rankings are on ten games started at a position. Ortiz and Butler will be the only exceptions because I’m not doing a top 20 for DHs. All other DHs’ projections will be included in my top 400. I believe Ortiz and Butler will have 1st base eligibility for Y!; their exclamation mark, not mine. But some years Yahoo gives Wil Myers catcher eligibility and randomly changes players’ names to Raymundo, so I have no idea. As for Big Papi, he’s 38 years old. How long until steroids leave your body anyway? That was a complete non-sequitur. It’s no comment on Ortiz at all. Please don’t sue me. I’d have to think steroids leave the body within five years, no? Again, this is no comment on Ortiz. There’s no correlation to me talking about steroids now, instead of in anyone else’s blurb. Do steroids leave the body within four years? Is there another undetectable hormone that someone, not named Ortiz, could be using? (Also, Tom Jacks went over his David Ortiz fantasy for OPS leagues.) 2014 Projections: 77/26/81/.278/2
13b. Billy Butler – If you stop doing steroids, don’t you grow moobs? Hmm… 2014 Projections: 81/22/91/.294/1
14. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Moss. I call this tier, “Not totally excited to draft them, but I guess, well, um, yeah, I will if they’re around. Excitement!” As for Cuddyer, Coors. That’s all Cuddyer has going for him. Put him in, say, Dodger Stadium and he drops two tiers. All the guys in this tier have fleas like Bluestar Airlines. I hate that the Rockies are putting Cuddyer back in the outfield for another season. They don’t respect what he can do if they just play it easy with him at 1st base. Either way, Cuddyer just needs to stay healthy and he’ll be more valuable than A-Gon. Unfortch, doode can’t stay healthy (no one in Colorado can; their womb is polluted!). Cuddyer will get ~130 games and you’ll have to figure out the other thirty games off of waivers. For shallower leagues where he’s easily replaceable, this actually makes him more valuable. 2014 Projections: 70/21/81/.284/10
15. Allen Craig – Like the menopausal movies of Nancy Myers will tell you, something’s gotta give with Allen Craig. He can’t continue to come up a month short of a full season and be worth drafting. 90+ RBIs don’t come often to guys that play less than 140 games. It’s now happened in back-to-back years for Craig. Watch the Gods of Fantasy Baseball smite him this year with 75 RBIs in 155 games. “I hope it’s as half as fun as what we did last year to Mike Moustakas.” That’s the head God of Fantasy Baseball, Nerdienotestes. 2014 Projections: 75/19/91/.310/3
16. Mike Napoli – When he re-signed with the Red Sox, I said, “I guess they were impressed with all his offseason, cigarette-in-mouth, shirtless jogging. I liked it better when his mom was taking off her shirt.” And that’s me quoting me! What I didn’t say there, this is the first year Napoli doesn’t have catcher eligibility and doesn’t seem likely to get it any time soon. Also, I’d be concerned Napoli hits .230. The difference between him and Ryan Howard isn’t all that great. 2014 Projections: 74/25/87/.251/2
17. Brandon Moss – I flip-flopped Moss and A-Gon in the rankings a few times. Moss was at 11 then A-Gon was down here and vice versa and vice vice versa and versa vice then I took a nap. A trying time for me. Come here, console me. Stop touching me! On one hand, Brandon Moss can hit 30 homers. On the other hand, he’s only good vs. righties. On the third hand that is really a foot wearing a mitten, there’s more righties than lefties. On a fourth hand that is a foam finger sitting on your desk for when you want to cheer on your sales associates, I’m concerned Moss might slump vs. righties then be totally unusable. 2014 Projections: 69/28/80/.255/3
18. Buster Posey – This is a new tier. This is a two person tier with Posey and Santana. I call this tier, ‘Why are these guys not playing catcher for you?” Already went over Posey in the top 20 catchers for 2014 fantasy baseball.
19. Carlos Santana – Already went over Santana in the top 20 catchers for 2014 fantasy baseball.
20. Matt Adams – This is a new tier. This tier goes here until Belt. I call this tier, “Please, deity of choice, can I have some upside?” I’m shoving a turkey baster up the rankings’ anal cavity and injecting some upside. (BTW, I said ‘anal cavity’ in my wedding vows. Am I the only person in the history of the world to slide that phrase into their wedding vows? I like to think so. Okay, I’ll give you some context. For my vows, I said I’d like to take a page from the Meatloaf songbook. As with his song, I’ll Do Anything For Love (But I Won’t Do That), I listed a bunch of things I won’t do for love. One of those things I won’t do is smuggle drugs in my dog’s anal cavity across international borders.) Matt Adams has 30-homer upside. So few of these schmohawks do. Above Adams and after the top 8 overall, the guys that have 30-homer upside: Rizzo, Trumbo, Moss and Napoli. All of them could hit .240. Adams won’t hit for a terrible average. I’m excited to see what Adams can do with a full season. The only little drawback that’s not that little, Adams may never get a full season of at-bats. I also wrote a Matt Adams sleeper post. *buzzer, flashing lights* It’s time for our favorite pause in the action — the top 400 check! This should give you an idea of where guys are ranked overall. I currently have Matt Adams ranked in the 110’s. So, we’re 20 guys in, but there’s a ton of 1st basemen in the top 100. 2014 Projections: 69/25/76/.259/1
21. Brandon Belt – Another thing this tier has in common is they might not be full-time players by June. The next tier is filled with guys that will be full-time players if they’re healthy, but won’t be healthy. Just as a few of the guys in the next tier could defy odds and stay healthy. A few of the guys in this tier could take that next step. My big worry with Belt is he can’t hit 20 homers….Okay, I have another big worry, the Giants will do something like trade for Cuddyer in June, which would kill both his and Belt’s value. 2014 Projections: 78/19/75/.282/10
22. Ryan Howard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until V-Mart. I call this tier, “That sunset ride.” One of the guys in this tier may stay at the Renaissance Hotel this year and breath life into the 1st basemen that are fading into the sunset. “Ooh, look at Ryan Howard back in the saddle– And here comes his anterior knee pain.” So weird (not weird) that a guy who looks like he’s in terrible shape is aging poorly. If Howard gets 550 ABs, he’ll hit 30 homers. If he gets 550 ABs, I’ll eat my hat.* *I don’t wear a hat. You’d cover this hair? Puh-leeze. 2014 Projections: 62/25/78/.235
23. Corey Hart – I already went over my Corey Hart 2014 fantasy. I like to read it in my best Gilbert Gottfried voice. 2014 Projections: 66/21/70/.276/1
24. Kendrys Morales – An argument can be made that Kendrys (and Te(i)x) should be above Howard. All you have to do is look at their projections. I went with them in this order because of intangibles. No, not intangibles like how well Ryan Howard can play Cards Against Humanity. I mean intangibles like the chance Howard outproduces his draft slot, i.e., I like Howard’s upside better. I can’t imagine a scenario where I’m excited about drafting Kendrys, even if he adds a new plural this year to make it Kendries. Maybe if Kendrys is standing behind me with a gun and says, “Draft me or else.” Then I might be happy to draft him. Or at least pretend to be. As for the fact that Kendrys doesn’t have a team yet, his ranking and projections are assuming he lands somewhere he has a starting job. I’ll adjust the rankings if that doesn’t happen. As for the one person who didn’t read this blurb and commented below that Kendrys is still a free agent, thanks for pointing out what I know. I appreciate it. 2014 Projections: 70/23/88/.279
25. Mark Teixeira – This tier shouldn’t be called “That sunset ride.” It should be called, “The M.A.S.H. unit.” I picture you drafting Teixeira and convincing yourself that if he returns to his former greatness, your team’s gonna be so good. Yeah, and if every one of your picks pans out, you’ll also be named Fantasy Baseball Adviser to the President. “This is Barack. Barack Obama! Your president! Yeah, should I drop Jason Castro for A.J. Pierzynski?” 2014 Projections: 74/23/81/.250
26. Justin Morneau – Here’s what I said when he signed with the Rockies, “The Rockies just can’t put anything worthwhile at 1st base. It would’ve been too easily to just put Cuddyer at first to save him from potential injuries. Instead, they went with The Concusstador. When Morneau heard he was going to be playing in Colorado, he said he was sad to leave Minnesota. When told he had left Minnesota already and he was now in Pittsburgh, he blinked. Twice.” And that’s me quoting me! 2014 Projections: 67/22/78/.265
27. Nick Swisher – If you draft him, his sideburns alone have to be worth at least a pity f*ck from your girlfriend. 2014 Projections: 73/21/79/.252/2
28. Adam Lind – Last year at the age of 30, he hit 23 homers and a .288 average, which came after his breakout year in 2009. Hey, Lind, see you again in 2017! 2014 Projections: 59/24/68/.259/1
29. Adam LaRoche – The other side of this tier’s coin is if these guys fail to live up to expectations, then you’re stuck with a guy in the Loney tier from waivers and you will end up getting road rage at the slightest provocation and yelling at the family dog for not pulling his weight. 2014 Projections: 72/22/79/.254/1
30. Victor Martinez – Check his eligibility; he only has 11 games at 1st base, so there’s that. If he is eligible, he might not hit 15 homers, So There’s That, Part II: So There’s More? So There’s That, Part III: There’s No More. 2014 Projections: 70/15/81/.307
31. Jonathan Lucroy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Mauer. I call this tier, “If these guys are in your 1st base slot, you’re losing your league.” Already went over Lucroy in the top 20 catchers for 2014 fantasy baseball.
32. Joe Mauer – Doesn’t have 1st base eligibility yet, but will after the first week of the season. Already went over Mauer in the top 20 catchers for 2014 fantasy baseball.
33. Chris Carter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until McGuiness. I call this tier, “All or nothing, or maybe that’s nothing at all. Damn, now I’m singing Air Supply.” Member that year Mark Reynolds hit .260? Chris Carter is capable of that sorta out of nowhere batting average year. He flirted with a solid average (.279) in his final year of Triple-A. I don’t think he approaches that…Or really anywhere close to it, but if he does (it’ll be with a lot of luck), he’ll be a top five first baseman. Can’t say that about a lot of guys. Not a bad gamble late, but you may want to drop him by April 15th. We’ll see or as Chris Carter would say, the truth is out there. 2014 Projections: 66/30/90/.215/3
34. Juan Francisco – He’s a poor man’s Chris Carter. I’ll call him, Just-Miss Carter. UPDATE: Released by Brewers. 2014 Projections: 62/22/72/.241/2
35. Chris Johnson – Since Chris Johnson nearly won the batting title last year and still couldn’t keep a full-time job, I’m guessing if you own him for the entire season you’re in a very deep league or were hit by a car right after your draft. My condolences to your fantasy team. 2014 Projections: 50/15/64/.285/3
36. Justin Smoak – Lloyd McClendon has said that Smoak is his first baseman. Assuming Lloyd McClendon isn’t successful at getting himself fired, you have to take the man at his word. 2014 Projections: 60/21/64/.229/1
37. Daniel Nava – Some weeks he’ll be someone everyone wants like a Nava ho, other weeks he’ll be Daniel Nada. 2014 Projections: 65/15/58/.274/2
38. Mike Olt – I’m not entirely sure where he’s going to eligible at. I’m assuming 1st base, but he could get 3rd eligibility too and even if he doesn’t out of the gate, he’ll get starts at 3rd early and often. I like Olt a lot, but he’s a deep league flyer at this point. I’ll also write more about him once we get further into the preseason when playing time is ironed out. Ooh, a teaser! 2014 Projections: 53/17/59/.215/2
39. Chris McGuiness – There’s a few reasons why the Pirates traded for him this offseason A) Gaby Sanchez was the starter. B) See A. C) There’s no C. McGuiness is so Irish he didn’t stop at the Guiness, he added the Mc. He took his drunk ancestry up a notch. He has solid power, but might not hit .220 in the major leagues. Definitely worth a gamble in deep leagues to see if he breaks camp with the club as the everyday 1st baseman since his competish is weak. 2014 Projections: 42/18/51/.239
40. James Loney – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Reynolds. I call this tier, “Maybe you shouldn’t draft your team right after coming out of a coma.” My James Loney has a 1st name, it’s D-O-N-T. My James Loney has a 2nd name, it’s D-R-A-F-T. 2014 Projections: 52/13/66/.280/3
41. Adam Dunn – He talked about retiring after last season, but his aunt, Charla, sat him down and said, “You want everyone making terrible ‘Dunn is done’ puns? No, of course you don’t! Now finish that leg of cow I made you.” 2014 Projections: 58/30/70/.207/2
42. Mark Reynolds – Big Donkey and Mini Donkey have taken widely different paths to end up next to each other in the rankings. Someone should write a fairy tale about the journey Big Donkey and Mini Donkey took to end up reunited at the end of the rankings in 2014. Call it, “A Portrait of the Artist as a Young Donkey.” Dedicate it to me. I’m your inspiration. I’m also your office mate. Stand up. Look to the right. There I am. Hey! 2014 Projections: 52/25/64/.217/3
43. Mitch Moreland – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the end of the list. I call this tier, “Don’t worry, fantasy football is only four months away.” It will be interesting to see how many at-bats Moreland gets this year. Interesting to Mitch Moreland, that is. 2014 Projections: 55/19/62/.250
44. and 43 1/2. Lucas Duda and Ike Davis – These guys will likely platoon. The Mets are calling it the He’s Crap/He’s Doodie platoon. 2014 Projections for Duda: 47/17/52/.242/1 and 2014 projections for Davis: 40/20/55/.212/2
45. Yonder Alonso – It’s not a great thing when I rank someone just so others don’t think I forgot about him. Could be worse, I could’ve ranked Conor Gillaspie. I have five fake dollars if you can tell me if there really is a Conor Gillaspie in the league or if I made up his name. 2014 Projections: 65/12/70/.271/5
45. Brett Wallace – Even worse is when you’re ranked after a guy I only ranked so people would know I didn’t forget him. Going for Wallace, he should only bat against righties. Going against him, a window, as in his face looks like it’s permanently pressed against one. UPDATE: He was DFA’d by the Astros. Ouch. 2014 Projections: 59/17/65/.230
