What has become tradition over the past several years, I've been pumping bold predictions, like, well, insert your own mom joke here. I've even done them over on the Fantasy Football side of things. Speaking of which, don't forget, shameless plug alert, Fantasy Football is coming! [Insert another mom joke here.] So since this is my little corner here on the baseball side of things, and seeing as how we're near the All-Star break, what is tacitly known as the half-time marker of the season, I thought it'd be nice to check out how badly my predictions look now, and estimate how much crow I'll have to eat by season's end. Join me? (I meant the post. Not eating the crow. Unless you like eating crow. Then here's some salt. Just dump it all over.)
Monthly Archives: July 2015
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Buy Yourself A Merry Little Khris Davis
July 10, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 418 Commentsby: Grey
I saw an article the other day titled, "Brewers: Buyers or Sellers?" Admittedly, I only read the title. I figured I'd save myself some time because the Brewers are in last place, 19 games behind the Cardinals. Maybe the article was talking about the art of selling home brewed beer and had nothing to do with baseball. Buying or selling could be a conundrum for the home brewmaster along with, "What do you tell your wife about why she can't go into the garage?" "Can you name your beer 'HeineKEN' if your name is Ken and other copyright laws?" And my favorite home brewer conundrum, "Skunked or urinated on by the family dog, how can I tell?" Yeah, I'm guessing the Milwaukee Brewers are sellers, which means Carlos Gomez, Gerardo Parra and others are headed somewhere. This will open everyday playing time for Khris Davis. It's Khrismas in July! *ringing bell* Come Khristian boys and girls and Jewish boys and girls that want to pretend, it's that special time of year! Why do we care about Davis? Because he has 30-homer power something baseball lost just after they started testing for those pesky PEDs. Right now, Davis is owned in less than 10% of leagues, but I could see that shooting up to 75% owned in the next month if he hits for power and gets everyday playing time as I imagine he will. Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
The late '80s through the mid '90s represents something of a golden age for television sitcoms in my opinion. While Seinfeld, The Simpsons, and Married With Children were the three shows that stood out the most for me during this time period, there were several other programs that were quite entertaining in their own right despite not being quite on the level of those classics. One such program was Charles in Charge, which starred Scott Baio as the title character, Willie Aames as Buddy, the goofy, idiotic sidekick, and the lovely Nicole Eggert as Jaime, the teenage heartthrob. The storylines and jokes were cheesy, the acting was mediocre at best, but the show was always entertaining. And a young Nicole Eggert is probably better described as smokin' hot rather than lovely, especially to a 10-year-old like me at the time. It all worked quite well and is still an underrated show to this day.
Before I put internet pen to internet paper about my leads, I want you to know something: I do research. I know, I know, it may SEEM like this stuff is off the cuff because it's so off the chain (kids say that still, right?) but I swear to you, I spend a good amount of time looking into season long stats as well as current trends before I start snuggling up to my starting pitchers, especially when I'm looking to go cheap. As you know by now if you've played a bit on DK, strikeouts for pitchers are the black gold of fantasy baseball DFS so scouting out the right scenario to rack them up is key. So first I go and look at team K% for the season to see how teams are fairing and see - sarcastic drum roll please - the Astros sitting on top at 25.1%. Then I change the view to last 7 days and guess what? The Astros are still waiving their bats in the air like they just don't care as they're at 26.2%. Why check both? Well, it puts you on going after teams that are perhaps slumping or it could make you recognize a particular team that normally Ks seems locked in as a group and may not be one to pick on at the moment. But for now, I'm following this whiff wagon and taking the Erasmo Ramirez discount of $5,600 so I can have all of the Coors. No not the beer, silly! I'd rather be a teetotaler than do that. I'm talking about those Atlanta and Colorado bats, of course. And of course, now that I have, I don't have to mention them again. Damn, I covered a lot in this opener, I should just quit now! But instead, we'll keep this Friday post rolling. Here's some of my other hot takes for this Friday DK slate...
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 25 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Holy SAGNOF, Batman, Out Of Commission Gordon!
July 10, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 268 Commentsby: Grey
Alex Gordon is out for eight weeks with a seriously strained groin. To add insult to injury, his strained groin was in the smallest colander they could find. Ouch! Sure, in deep leagues, this one hurts. I'm not doubting that. Okay, I am, but let's stay on good footing today since it's Friday, and say I'm not doubting it. However (Grey's cranking the sail and turning this boat around!), Gordon getting hurt in shallower leagues is actually a blessing. Now you can grab hot waiver wire guys and stop relying on boring production from Gordon. Real Talk with Grey Albright. One such guy that I'd grab is Gordon's teammate and all-around vacuuming chicken, Jarrod Dyson (2-for-4 and his 11th steal). There might not be a bigger value change for one player in the last week, let alone the last month than this one for Dyson. Maybe all year if I can be stupidly hyperbolic without getting called on it. Dyson had the biggest value change since 1925 when Wally Pipp had a tooth pulled and Gehrig got a start at 1st. Dyson had the biggest value change since big pox decided to downgrade to small pox. Dyson could steal 25 bases in eight weeks. No, I'm no longer exaggerating. I'd grab him everywhere I needed SAGNOF! Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Bullpen Report, Week 14: Midway K/9 Rescue Kit
July 9, 2015 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 37 Commentsby: Smokey
Everyone likes maximizing stuff, hell, it's the reason we shop at Costco for wholesale BJ's. [Jay's Note: They have that at Costco? I thought it was just hot dogs and slices... I've been doing it wrong.] Wait that's not right, not completely wrong, but off-topic slightly. So maximizing, we are all looking to divest our teams with the best stat stuffers as possible, and the K department is tough to make up when you are chasing it. So how can you make it up slightly? Well relax, I am here to point you in the right direction like a well-trained German Shorthair. So everyone knows the top guys and then the handcuffs, but what about the guys who are owned tiny amounts in almost every format, but have been lighting it up the last few weeks? (And they are just as good as the known guys.) Sounds good to me, though, I did just write it so I kinda have to believe it. The trick is getting you to buy into it. If you're losing, and not everyone is in first place in every league, you may wanna peer at what I have to say. So bullpens are where we need to focus and sometimes it gets tricky because of the limitations on roster size sometimes. So analyze your roster and keep that in mind with space and such. The relievers that have SP eligibility and give you the best stats are like a chick who has a sense of humor. So stick around, it's a bit of a change up on the week's review of holds fellas.
Grey pointed this out in yesterday’s recap, but I feel it deserves some special attention here: Ruin Tomorrow Jr. has come out and said that [player]Cesar Hernandez[/player] has wrestled the starting second base position away from [player]Chase Utley[/player] in Philadelphia. While Utley is being shamed, which is a bummer way to close out a stellar career, the upside here is that we get to see more of Cesar. Cesar has been leading off or hitting second for the anemic Phillies lineup, with ridiculous success. In the past two weeks, Cesar is 26-for-58 with 9 steals and a .508 OBP (1.025 OPS). Yeesh! Cesar has been benefitting from an inflated .535 BABIP and will certainly fall to earth, but the speed should help soften the descent. I don’t think Cesar is the next [player]Dee Gordon[/player], but Gordon-lite? Sure. Cesar could post an OBP in the neighborhood of .340 over a full season with 35 steals, based on his minor league track record.
The title really should have something to do with Dodgerland or Mannywood. Maybe the Best Team That Money Can Buy (Can't wait for the book to come out Tuesday, by the way)? But I have to include Mike Trout in here, too.
I love Felix Hernandez. I truly do. In my short time living in the great northwest, I understood the appreciation that they have for King Felix. The King's Court is something you should witness at least once if you are a baseball fan.
But for some reason, Trout has had his number throughout his career. There are three current Angels that are hitting above .200 in their career against Felix Hernandez. Erick Aybar (.220), Albert Pujols (.222) and Mike Trout (.345). It's no small sample, either. He's 20-58 against Hernandez with 3 home runs and 12 RBI. He's the fifth-highest price outfielder behind J.D. Martinez and Andrew McCutchen, which makes sense. However, Cameron Maybin and the injured Giancarlo Stanton both cost more than him. It's a large enough sample that I feel confident to zig with Trout while others will zag. That's why after selecting my building block (SPOILER: It's always a pitcher for me), I knew Trout was the first hitter I was getting in my lineup. Let's get into it more, shall we?
Straight to the cash, homie.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 15 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
Yesterday, Carlos Gomez went 2-for-3 with 4 RBIs and his 8th and 9th homers. Only took until the 87th game of the year for a big game. Maybe I'm a goofy chicken. Maybe I'm a guy that puts feety pajamas on over his head. Maybe I walk into a Subway and ask a sandwich artist, "Do you smell onion?" Maybe I stare at people playing Jenga and try to move the pieces with telekinesis. Maybe I pronounce the D in Django. Maybe I call diner waitresses "Sweetheart" and old guys "Sonny." Maybe I could be wrong, but -- here it comes, Razzball nation -- I wouldn't be shocked by a huge 2nd half from Gomez. Can't be much worse than his 1st half, could it? Don't answer. Let's hold hands and ruminate. Figuratively! Let go of my hand! Last year, his 2nd half was much worse than his 1st half and in 2013 it wasn't that different, so there's nothing here historically. What Gomez does have is a track record that had him drafted in the first round in most leagues, and showing next to nothing so far. His ground balls are up (not literally) and his fly balls are down (literally) and he's making lousy contact. Again, there's no reason to think he bounces back, but he was nursing injuries in the 1st half, and hopefully he stays healthy. If you have to take a hard way bet and can get him cheap enough, I could see it. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Sky: "Beddict, what's up broseph? Want to manscape each other and hit the Oregon coast for the week? My wife's finally allowing me hang out with you again after the Playboy mansion incident."
Beddict: "No can do, big dog. It's Shark Week. Call me next week and I'll make sure there's not a solitary hair anywhere near your junk."
Grey: "Tehol, I've been chosen to write the pilot for what could be the next, Game of Thrones, possibly even bigger, and I've chosen YOU to collaborate on it, you know, because of your rapier wit and panty dropping charm. Total life changer here, Tehol."
Beddict: "First off; nothing will EVER eclipse GOT, as it's the greatest show of all time. and 2nd: C'mon son….IT'S SHARK WEEK!"
Jay: "T-Beeeeeezy, guess who's in town, playa?! That's right, me, Jay Long-Dong! I received 30 Tinder matches since I landed in Sea-town, and they all want to get wasted at Beddict Manor for a week straight."
Beddict: "No can do, Kimosabe. Nobody loves butt naked freaks more than Beddict, and I know we've never actually hung out, but bruh, Shark Week. Maybe next year…..Just a different week of next year."
J-Foh: "TEHOL, you old son of a gun how are ya. Any chance you can watch my kid for a couple days while I go catch the donkey show in TJ?"
Beddict: [Hangs up phone.]
IT'S Mother EFFing SHARK WEEK, YA'LL!!!!!
Midseason Top 50 Prospects: The Big Movers
July 8, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 162 Commentsby: Mike
The midseason prospect rankings are upon us, and as I put together our own list here at Razzball, there are a few players who have seen significant changes in their rankings since my preseason list published. While most of the Top 50 will be familiar, there have been graduations and a couple of dropouts. That means a few new names will crack the list, which is pretty exciting. The full midseason Top 50 will publish a week from today, and unlike traditional lists, ours will be completely geared towards each prospect's potential fantasy impact. If next week's list is the main course, then I guess today is the appetizer. To be eligible, a prospect simply needs to retain their rookie eligibility, or less than 130 AB/50 IP. Here are ten players who were big 'movers'...
