Fantasy Baseball Advice

The top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball are a bit deeper this year, but they’re still shallower than the top 20 2nd basemen and ranked only ahead of the catchers for depth.  All the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found under that thing that said 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Don’t worry, one of my New Year’s Resolutions is to link to things a little more seamlessly).  Shortstops usually get the short end of the stick when I’m drafting.  If I don’t get Hanley, I’ll probably just take a flier on some late round player.  In leagues that play a middle infielder, then you might need two of these schmohawks.  Hopefully, you can grab two decent 2nd basemen and only need one of these guys.  As with the other top 20 rankings, I point out where I think tiers start and stop and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1.  Hanley Ramirez – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

2.  Troy Tulowitzki – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Rollins.  I call this tier, “Even the elite shortstops are no guarantees.”  Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

4.  Jose Reyes – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

5. Derek Jeter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Zobrist.  I call this tier, “Overrated.”  I’m not going to draft Jeter in any leagues.  Some crazed Noo Yawker will get him before I can even think about it.  I do like him a bit more going into 2010 than I did in last season’s preseason after seeing how hitter-friendly The Stadium Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built is.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

6. Jason Bartlett – I don’t buy into Bartlett’s 2009.  In October, I said, “I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.”  That was a *pinkie to mouth*  Bartlett Quotation.  Okay, so January Grey’s here to say, February Grey’s got nothing on me.  Bartlett more than doubled his homer per fly ball rate so I don’t believe the 14 homers, either.  Average outlier + power outlier + repeatable, but not blazing speed = Pass.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

7. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

8. Elvis Andrus – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Asdrubal.  I call this tier, “Since there’s so few top shortstops, we’re left with upside.” Andrus is ranked ahead of Alexei and Drew simply because his value comes from speed and that doesn’t just disappear, unlike guys whose value is predicated on power.  Can Andrus jump into the upper tiers like Drew and Alexei can?  It’s possible, and they have more downside.  They’re all real close and I could see taking any of them depending on how you’re assembling your team.  Your eyes want more?  Elvis Andrus sleeper.  2010 Projections:  75/8/50/.270/37

9. Alexei Ramirez – I’m usually a peaceful person, but this guy made me want to choke someone out last year.  Preferably Alexei.  His homers should bounce back a bit from last year, but his .277 average looks pretty right on.  He’s established that he starts slow, so if you do draft him keep that in mind.  2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15

10. Stephen Drew – Rising ground ball rate, falling fly ball rate… Who’s this guy trying to be, Luis Castillo?  Hit the ball in the air!  After his 2008 season, Drew had more promise than the first twenty minutes of Inglourious Basterds.  Then Drew’s 2009 was spent running a French movie theater and falling in love with a black guy.  Hopefully, Drew’s 2010 can be set in a tavern basement and get the ball rolling again.  2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over Asdrubal in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

12. Yunel Escobar – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Peralta.  I call this tier, “I’m punting this tier.”  Yunel could get to 17 homers (a long shot), but he has the speed of a man 300 pounds heavier, assuming that man isn’t Pablo Sandoval.  2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3

14. Miguel Tejada – On C-SPAN, Jim Bunning is arguing in front of Congress that Tejada’s high average last year should be withdrawn from all official records because of a high BABIP.  2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4

14. J.J. Hardy – I’ll give this to Hardy, I almost dropped him to the Furcal tier, indicating I would almost draft him.  Maybe in my horseshoes or hand grenade draft.  2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260

15. Marco Scutaro – Marco…. Scutaro… Whatevero.  2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7

16. Erick Aybar – I get a utility man vibe from Aybar.  If you draft him, there’s a 95% chance of you dropping him before May.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17

17. Jhonny Peralta – If you don’t have nothing nice to say, then don’t say nothing.  2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265

18. Rafael Furcal – This is the last tier.  This tier I call, “These are fliers I’m taking a chance on late.”  Furcal’s a bit of a wild card to even be around still by this tier.  Someone will draft him earlier, totally forgetting what happened last year Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer-style.  Others will see his last month as a sign of good things to come.  If he’s around at the end of your draft, I’d take a flier that there’s still a bit left in the tank.  He is admittedly not a very exciting flier.  Hey, they can’t all be Alcides Escobar.  2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20

19.  Alcides Escobar – I compared him to a 2009 Elvis Andrus in the Alcides Escobar fantasy sleeper post.  Go look at it.  Go ahead.  The Royal We will be here.  2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40

20. Ryan Theriot – Feels like a poor man’s Alcides… Or maybe it’s a conservative man’s Alcides.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22

There’s lots of guys after the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, but these two stand out:

Ian Desmond – Went over him in my Ian Desmond Fantasy sleeper, keeper, something or other post.  2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20

Everth Cabrera -  Here it is.  The last guy you could conceivably take and still get an affirmative head nod from yours truly.  You want that affirmative head nod or not?  It’s up to you.  If you need 30-plus steals late in your draft, then EverCab can do the trick.  (EverCab is also available for bar mitzvahs.)  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35

I took part in my 3rd mock draft for 2010 fantasy baseball the other day.  Tis the season, ya’ll.  And by the other day, I mean I did this mock about three weeks ago prior to the winter meetings/signings/whosehewhiches.  So if you’re wondering why I drafted Randy Wolf or Rodney, it’s because it’s before they lost value in the last two weeks.  Unlike my other mock drafts, I was a bit more prepared for this one since I’ve done most of the rankings already.  You’ll get those sometime in January.  You can hardly wait!  The teams who participated are listed followed by my team.  Then I’ll point out certain rounds and what the eff was I thinking.  BTW, I have no idea if it was really Dane Cook mock drafting with us or his intern or someone pretending to be Dane Cook or his intern.  Evidence that it was him, he wasn’t funny in the the mock draft chatroom and he did draft a lot of Red Sawx players.   Evidence that it wasn’t him, when I asked him for my money back for the movie tickets I bought to his movie.  He said it wasn’t his fault, the editors took out the good parts.  Then I said, that’s not true, they left you in.  And he said nothing.  I expect the real Dane Cook would’ve said something.  So my guess is it was not Dane In Real Life.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball mock team with some thoughts:

Round 2 – Matt Holliday – I have no problems with Holliday late in the 2nd round.  No matter what team he ends up on.  He’s good for 25 homers, .315 average and 15 steals.  Slot that next to Hanley and my team’s exiting the 2nd round as good as any other team, if not better.

Round 3 – Joey Votto – Love Votto this year.  Looking at a guy that is going to give me at least 25 homers, .315 and 15 steals.  Wait, that’s Holliday… and Hanley.  Damn, my shizz is dope.  This is stacking up to be the best mock team ever.  You, folks, are witnessing some kind of history.  Or you’re witnessing a recap of a mock draft.  You decide if you want to burst your own bubble.  I would have liked to draft Votto in the 4th round, but when Adrian Gonzalez was taken in the 2nd round, I knew I had to take Votto or risk not having a 1st baseman.

Round 4 – Adam Lind – First off, yes, I believe in the 35 homers.  Second off, my team felt a little light on power, so I wanted a big bat.  Third off, there is no third off.

Round 5 – Johan Santana – Halladay went right after Johan and if this were a real draft, I would’ve taken Halladay first.  My bad, I was eating dinner while drafting and not fully paying attention.  Hey, at least I’m honest.  But while not fully paying attention, I still have the best mock team possibly ever.  I took Johan because I can’t imagine he’s done being a dominant ace and he’s pitching in Metco.  That’s with a falling K-rate or not.

Round 8 – Ian Stewart – Couple of things at play here.  Dan Uggla was just taken before Stewart and the next 2nd baseman on the board after Stewart was Crapolanco.  I knew I wasn’t drafting again for 21 picks.  I had already punted 3rd base and I didn’t want to punt 2nd base too.  Also, Ian Stewart is my 2010 Mini Donkey Award winner.

Round 9 – Chipper Jones – Chipper’s prolly my least favorite pick of this mock.  Was just a case of how the players fell in this draft.  It was Chipper or the next 3rd baseman was Mark DeRosa.  I don’t want Chipper, I really don’t want DeRosa.  Plus, I figured if I had to move Stewart to 3rd and grab a waiver wire 2nd baseman, that would be doable.  Then again, this is just a mock.  Who gives an eff in the cooley hole?

Round 11 – Geovany Soto – As mentioned in the opening paragraph, I’ve done the rankings.  What I found when I did them is I like Soto this year.  He had a shoulder injury last year.  Believe in the bounce back.

Round 14/15 – Nolan Reimold and Garrett Jones – Some other outfielders taken in this round were Denard Dawg, Kubel, Jermaine Dye and Corey Hart.  Two guys who can go 30/10 in the outfield felt like no brainers this late in the draft.  Then again, as my grandmother used to tell me between cigarettes, a no brainer is my specialty.

Round 16 – Johnny Cueto – I believe in the 2009 1st half Cueto, not the 2009 2nd half Cueto.

Round 18 – Jonathan Sanchez – A 200 K pitcher around the 216th overall pick?  Okay, I’ll take that.

Round 20 – Carlos Ruiz – I don’t necessarily like Ruiz, but in a two catcher league you do what you can.

Round 21 - Ian Desmond – Went over him the other day in the Ian Desmond fantasy thingamawhosie.

Round 22 – Homer Bailey – Think the upside comes through one of these years…. Or not.  With the last pick of a 12 team draft, it was worth a shot… Or not.  It’s a mock, ya’ll.

I had a whole lot to say about Ian Desmond when he was first called up.  I rambled for a few sentences about Bowden on a Segway and how old youngster, Esmailyn Gonzalez really is.  He’s a Latin 20-something.  He’s also known as Carlos Lugo now.  This is brilliant.  How cool would it be if at least once a year a retired player tried to make a comeback under an alias?  Have you seen this new Dominican prospect for the Braves? His name is Julio Phranco.  He looks vaguely familiar. Last September, I said in my never duplicated, always imitated way, “Desmond has a decent blend of speed and power (think The Big FraGu at shortstop).  The “at shortstop” thing is the clincher.” It’s all about the clincher, ain’t it?  So what can Ian Desmond do for 2010 fantasy baseball is he, dare I say, a sleeper?

Since we’re friends, I’m going to tell you that I’m on the fence with how much I want to push Ian Desmond on you, loyal Razzball reader. On one hand, he can be FraGuish.  On the other hand, how much ‘ish is he?  Is he 97% FraGuish?  Is he 55% FraGuish?  So much anGuish!  Then when I look at the numbers a different way, I think he might be more FeLopezian.  So let’s see what we know.  His stealing percentages in the minors were dreadful at times.  In Double-A in 2008, he stole 12 bases and was caught 8 times.  In 2009, 13 for 17 in Double-A then 8 for 9 in Triple-A.  When he reached the Nats, he stole one base in 21 games and the Nats don’t steal that much. So I think Desmond has 25-plus steal speed, but may only steal 15 bases.  Now for the power.  In his first major league game, he hit a 434 foot bomb. Though its true distance is less. (Still not clear on what true distance is.  I like to think it’s measured in unicorns because that would ironic.  BTW, if you wanna lose three hours of your life, play around with this site.) So Desmond can generate power, but he’s not a really a power hitter.  Ten homers seems like a lot to ask of him, but he could get to 15.  Hmm… That brings me back to FraGuish.  So I guess we’ll settle on 10/20 for Desmond with the hope of more and the fear of less.  Though, because the shortstop position is so shallow, 10/20 is a great sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball and definitely someone to look at late in drafts.

Jay Bruce has hit four homers in the last four days while hitting over .500 in the last week.  Now has 22 homers in only 74 hits with 73 Ks to go along with 3 steals.  I never thought Mark Reynolds would steal 24 bases.  I didn’t think he had 15 in him.  So, don’t take this comparison the wrong way, but Mark Reynolds is lucky he snatched up the Mini Donkey nickname because Jay Bruce looks like he could be headed that way next year.  Bruce is still very young, and his propensity to strikeout leaves him vulnerable to big slumps, so I won’t predict a huge breakout in 2010.   But he can hit 30 homers and steal 10 bases while batting .250.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Homer Bailey – 7 IP, 1 ER, 7 Ks.  Now we’re getting to the point where he might actually be touted by the analcysts over at ESPN, which would mean his 2010 sleeper status could be in jeopardy.

Rick Porcello – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  He was in the borderline starters post for this week with a very mild recommendation.

Denard Span – 4-for-9 in the doubleheader.  Quietly having a very solid year.  Those Minnesotans are so modest!  He needs a spokesman.  His Wikipedia page is a third the size of the Wikipedia page for mutton.  He needs the mutton man!  His numbers are looking a lot like Victorino’s.  Let’s see, someone already has the nickname, Feign Victorino.  (I think I gave it to Fowler.)  So, Victorino’s The Flying Hawaiian.  Maybe The Flying Twinkie?  Hmm… That needs work.  Maybe The Flying Minnesotan?  Hmm, that sounds like someone on a roller derby team.  How about Wing Span?  Too cutesy?  Yeah, probably.  Forget it, this is a job for the mutton man.

Josh Hamilton – Shutdown for the season.  Back date this to April.

Mark Buehrle – Also shutdown for the season.  Back date this to his perfect game.

Jack Wilson – Lastly, shutdown for the year.  Back date this to the day he was drafted.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-4, HR and a steal yesterday.  He hit the longest homer (460 feet, which was not this homer, but I just heard this yesterday) for any Nationals player at home this year.  This is a team with Paul Bunyan aka Big Donkey aka Adam Dunn on it.  Ian Desmond’s a shortstop.  You ready for a math problem?  Come on, I hear Winnie Cooper from The Wonder Years loves math.  Okay, here it is:  A shortstop that can hit a ball 460 feet + speed = Fantasy Sleeper.

Cameron Maybin – Speaking of fast guys with sneaky power, Maybin has two homers in the past 4 games.  I was pushing him last March for a reason, and I’ll be pushing him again next March.

J.A. Happ – 5 2/3 IP, 3 ER, 6 Ks.  He has a 2.85 ERA on the year with 12 wins.  Is he generating Rookie of the Year buzz?  Is there such a thing as Rookie of the Year buzz?

Ryan Madson – 2 IP, 0 ER and his 10th save.  On Sunday, he got a four out save.  Manuel’s finally figured out how to make the set-up man comfortable in the closing role.  Start him in the 8th inning.

Huston Street – 1 IP, 3 ER.  Maybe he’s still injured?  I don’t know, that’s why I put a question mark on it.

Trevor Cahill – 4 2/3 IP, 6 ER as the A’s continue to flummox me.  I might need to reach out to Bubb Rubb to see if he can counsel me.

Tony Gwynn – Has 4 steals in the last week.  SAGNOF!

Cesar Ramos – 5 IP, 1 ER.  The latest HodgePadre.  Okay, close your eyes for a second.  Don’t worry, I won’t pickpocket you.  Now imagine Adrian Gonzalez is traded to the Rockies for Ubaldo Jimenez.

Miguel Montero – 2 HRs.  Speaking of trades, hopefully the Diamondbacks move Snyder this offseason.

Scott Kazmir – Scratched to ready himself for the playoffs.  He probably won’t see anything more than a tuneup before the end of the season.

Curtis Granderson – 2 HRs with the 2nd being his 30th.  He also has 20 steals.  Sure, his average is .252, but don’t get so tied up in average.  That’s how you ended up missing Mark Reynolds this year.

Grant Balfour - Now has saves in back-to-back games.  This could mean he doesn’t see another save this year, or it could mean he saves two more games.

Wade Davis – 7 IP, 1 ER.  He’s still going to be too young and prone to major mistakes in the AL East for me to get that excited about him in 2010.

Adam Lind – 3 HRs yesterday.  Now has 35 homers on the year.  I already went over my Lind for 2010 campaign.

Clay Buchholz – Had a 3.21 ERA coming in, now has a 3.74 ERA.  7 earned runs in 5 innings is one way to make your 2009 stats look worse than they are.

Josh Beckett – Supposed to start on Saturday.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him pitch 5 innings and then get pulled from the game.  Or as Dodgers fans say, “A Kershaw start.”

Edwin Encarnacion – Out with groin tightness.  Sounds like an injury that would sideline a porn actress.

Brian Duensing went seven innings with no earned runs, 11 baserunners and 6 Ks.  I almost started him, but he was going vs. the A’s and they’ve hurt me so many times this year.  I think I owned the losing pitcher for every one of their wins.  The rest of the way, Duensing gets the Tigers twice and the Royals once.  Not terrible starts.  The Tigers hitting isn’t as good as their record and the Royals, well, ya know.  Duensing probably won’t provide you with a ton of Ks, but he has solid control and a last name that sounds like an Indonesian prison.  (BTW, his last name may only sound like that because of my new favorite TV show, Locked Up Abroad.  Next time I go abroad, I’m not even going to mule in any exotic fruit.  BTW II, instead of mule, shouldn’t they call these smugglers jackasses?  I apologize to any of our drug dealing readers.  You know who you are.)  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

B.J. Upton – Didn’t played for three games, then returned to go 0-for-3 in the 2nd game of yesterday’s doubleheader as the Rays fade from the playoff picture.  In September, the Rays have the 2nd worst Run total while batting .214.  Good to know for match ups.

Brad Lidge – You’re the manager of the Phils, let’s call you, Charlie Manuel.  So you’re “Charlie Manuel” and you have a 5-2 lead going into the ninth vs. one of the worst lineups.  Do you go to your ramshackle closer to try to build his confidence or do you go to ramshackle setup man-turned-closer or do you interrupt Brett Myers, who’s in the middle of boxing a kangaroo?  You go to Lidge, who nearly blows the save, and avoid Madson who blew the save on Saturday.

Ryan Madson – For the Phils nightcap, they decided to go with a less-aged scotch and gave Madson the save.

Pedro Martinez – 8 IP, 0 ER, 7 Ks, then he poured out an eyedropper for the dwarfs who weren’t there.

Kyle Davies – 6 IP, 7 baserunners (one hit).  He gets the White Sox next.  It’s not an ideal match-up, but Davies has now thrown four solid starts in a row and shut out the White Sox the last time he faced them in Chicago.

Pete Orr – HR yesterday.  He can cross that off his bucket list.

Ian Desmond – 2-for-5 yesterday, 4-for-4 on Saturday.  Tomorrow… lassoing the moon!

Paul Maholm – 8 IP, 0 ER.  It’s not a September run in the H2H playoffs unless you’re starting guys you don’t trust.  Maholm gets the Padres next.

Lance Berkman – HR yesterday and his third in the last four games.  Waco my airplane…

Tommy Hunter – 9 IP, 2 ER.  And the Rangers are in the top half of the league in pitching.  Zoinks!

Chris Carpenter – 6 IP, 7 ER.  Sorry to talk real baseball, but this start might’ve cost him the Cy Young.

Derrek Lee – Hit his 32nd homer yesterday.  After a terrible April and a yawnstipating May, he hit a random homer in June and I said, “Now has his average up to .253.  I know, big whoop!  But, and I might be alone on this island, I think he’s got a month or two hot streak in him.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Turned out he had about a four month hot streak in him.  Unfortunately, the steals have completely vanished from his game.

Torii Hunter – HR yesterday.  Since I’m looking down at my nuggets to offer up nuggets, when he was at 17/13 on July 3rd, I said, “My gratuity calculator is telling me if you own Hunter, you’ve gotten more production from him than you will if you continue to hold him.” He’s now at 21/16.  So he’s gone 4/3 since early July.  That’s like one week from Robot Jones.

Mark Buehrle – 7 IP, 2 ER.  After his rough stretch following his perfect game, he seems to be settling down.  He gets the Royals next.

Kendry Morales – 1-for-3, No reason to talk about him here, but this caught my eye.  He’s been caught stealing 7 times and he’s been successful one time.  Elias Sports Bureau said this is the most caught stealings for a guy who shouldn’t be running in the first place.  Actually, they didn’t say that, but something that was overheard this week in the Elias Sports Bureau compound, “For the first time ever, Natalie, in stats research, had a nervous breakdown when Jim, in Human Resources, refused her Mafia Wars invitation.”

Russell Martin – Back to back games now with homers.  Nice of Martin to show in mid-September.

Chad Billingsley – 4 IP, 3 ER, 8 baserunners vs. the Giants, who are just barely above the Padres as the worst offensive team in the league.  Oh, Billingsley.

Juan Uribe – HR yesterday.  If you need MI pop, he’s poppin’.

Jake Peavy – Thinks he can return by this weekend vs. the Royals.  He said yesterday, “The stamina was definitely better, the sharpness of everything (that can easily beat the Royals), the fastball command (that will strike out Royal hitters), the breaking ball (that the Royals hitters won’t be able to hit), so I’ll be ready to get in a game (versus the Royals) sometime soon.”

Hideki Matsui – 3-for-5, HR, 5 RBIs yesterday.  When he got home, his wife congratulated him.  She’s very animated.

Derek Jeter – 3-for-5, 3 Runs.  Big weekend for Jeter as he passed Gehrig’s Yankee hit record.  Now he only has one hallowed Yankee record left, the Most Times He Has To Defend A-Rod Without Actually Defending Him Only To Later Write A Book Defaming Him.  Record currently held by Joe Torre.