Fantasy Baseball Advice

I’ve added average draft position (ADP) from MockDraftCentral.com to the 5×5 10/12/14/16 Team Point Shares tables. (NL-only Point Shares are also up for 8, 10, and 12 Team.)

As expected, pitchers are valued higher in Point Shares vs. actual drafts.  There’s plenty of reasons for this – riskier pitchers are undervalued, (mis)perceptions, blah blah blah – but all that matters is finding the best bargains across all positions.

Shorthand for the below.  Any player with a positive (+##) is being picked that many picks after their estimated value.  Any player with a negative (-##) is being drafted ahead of their value.  Plus is good value.  Minus is bad value.

Here are some observations for 1B, 2B, SS, 3B.  I’ll cover the other positions in a 2nd post:

First Basemen

The top 3 after Pujols (Fielder, Howard, Cabrera) are drafted at slight premiums (5-16 picks ahead of estimated value) but the next group of Teixeira, A-Gonz, Morneau, and Votto come at a higher premium (30-55 picks).

The biggest premium is going for Mark Teixiera (50 picks above value – 6th vs. 56th).  My CHONE/ZiPS-derived estimates are 529/89/30/106/1/.284.  Last year, he hit 609/103/39/122/2/.292.  It’s possible that the HR-lift of Yankee Stadium still isn’t fully accounted for in the projections but the biggest difference is 80 ABs which drives up the other counting stats.  In 2007-2008, M-Teix averaged 534 ABs.  The Yanks now have a decent backup 1B in Nick Johnson that can spell M-Teix.  I’d shy on bullishness for Teixeira but I still think he’s below the top 3 above.

So what should you do?  Ideally, grab one of the top 3.  If not, I’d hope one of the next 4 fall far enough so that you’re getting a better deal falling back on better valued Lance Berkman (-8), Derrek Lee (+8), and Adam LaRoche (+84).  LaRoche has an average ADP of 180 where his Point Shares value is at #96 – driven by solid stats across the board.  He’s been a solid 25/80 guy for a while but hitting in a better lineup and park might boost him to 100 RBI level (ZiPS thinks so at least)

Second Basemen

No bargains in the top half of the draft for 2Bs.  Utley, Kinsler, Phillips, Pedroia, Cano and Roberts are all going 11-30 picks above their value with Brian Roberts being the highest.  With reports he has a bad back, I’d stay far away from him this year.  Aaron Hill (-94) and Ben Zobrist (-108) are being drafted on last year’s stats vs. their likely regressed stats. Howie Kendrick (-110) is being drafted on his never-delivered promise.

The best bargains are all players that are weak in one dimension or less than inspiring overall:  Uggla (-2), Ian Stewart (+4),  Polanco (+88), Weeks (+40), Prado (+22), Kelly Johnson (+18).

My advice would be to punt 2B to later rounds unless you can good value for Utley or one of the other top 6 (besides Roberts).  Ian Stewart looks nice if your team is short on power.  A Polanco or Kelly Johnson looks better if your scavenging for a player late in the draft.

Shortstops

Hanley at #2 is fine value.  The next 10 rounds have only one SS at above-average value – Jose Reyes.  If he’s healthy, he’s set to be the 18th most valuable player in the draft but his ADP has been at #23.  Tulo (-30), J-Roll (-38),  and Jeter (-83) are all overvalued in drafts.

If you don’t go for Hanley or Reyes, wait until after the 10th round and there are some good bargains – mostly speed guys.  Everth Cabrera (+93), Asdrubal Cabrera (+12), Erick Aybar (+14), Ryan Theriot (+60), and Alcides Escobar (+43) are all great values.

Later round bad values include the always-overvalued Stephen Drew (-69) and Elvis Andrus (-49).

Third Basemen

This position has almost no good values in the whole draft (unless you consider late-round fliers Casey Blake and Kevin Kouzmanoff exciting).  Almost all the 3Bs are being picked 20-40 picks ahead of their value.  Not sure why this is.

I think this is a position that you should reach for but just try to get the best bargain.  I think Point Shares is overvaluing David Wright and undervaluing A-Rod (low playing time estimate from BP) so here are my amended 3B value picks:

- A-Rod – 4th pick or later.  His ADP is #3 but I think Braun is better.
- Wright/Longoria – Anytime after pick #12.  I’m taking one of the top 4 1B instead of them.
- Reynolds – Anytime after pick #25.  #18 ADP too high for me given the unreliable SBs and AVG.
- Zimmerman – Anytime after pick #33.  Zimmerman in the 3rd round is a solid pick in my eyes.
- Sandoval/Youk – Anytime after pick #50.
- Aramis – Anytime after #65
- M Young / Beckham – Anytime after #90
- Figgins – Anytime after #120 (yeah, pretty much saying don’t draft him.  Kills you in HR/RBI for 3B)

There’s no Reyes, Rollins or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or are still looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2010 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially industrious, click on the players name to read more about them or to see their 2010 projections.  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2010 fantasy baseball:

Elvis Andrus – He’s slated to start the season in the nine hole.  I’ll bet my two hole he moves up the order by midseason.

Asdrubal Cabrera – Speaking of two holes, Asdrubal ended up on this list of shortstops to target rather than a 2nd baseman because he fits into my ideer of what I want at short more than 2nd.  It’s the more speed, less power thing.

Alcides Escobar – I’ve compared him to Andrus in a past post — one letter off! The nice thing about Alcides is his defense is so good that he should have a longer leash than some other rookies like, oh, I don’t know, Mat Gamel.

Everth Cabrera – Okay, you know that crazy, roid rage British chef that does Dinner: Impossible?  You are him in your draft and your mission is to try to find steals late at the middle infielder position and make Chicken Parm for twenty-five hundred people.  When you’re taking a donut in power from an outfield or utility spot from someone like Juan Pierre, it hurts you.  A donut from MI, you can handle.  Mmm… donut.

Unlike our last team, Rudy and I co-drafted this team.  So for every bad pick, Rudy and I have someone to blame.  Neither will take it personal.  We managed to work Elijah Dukes onto this team, who’s a total dwyck.  This is a 20 team, 5×5, roto league and still is, so we have more arms than Bruce Willis.  Get well soon, Guru!  The team breaks down like this:  Catcher, 1st Baseman, 2nd Baseman, 3rd Baseman, Shortstop, 3 Outfielders, Utility, 2 SPs, 2 RPs, 3 Ps and a 4 man bench.  Anyway, here’s a 2010 fantasy baseball team and some thoughts from the draft:

Round 1 – Ryan Braun – We skipped A-Rod and Utley.  Our thought process went like this.  With only one position player for each position, 3 outfielders and one utility man, we figured outfielders would make up the majority of the teams’ Utility spots and might even end up in the bench spots.  So you’re looking at drafting about 100 outfielders vs. 20 3rd basemen, 20 2nd basemen, etc.  Since there was no MI or CI, we figured there wouldn’t be many teams that had more than one 3rd baseman or 2nd baseman, etc. before we drafted one.

Round 2 – Lance Berkman – It was between him and Kendry Morales.  We decided to go with a guy who we felt was slightly more boring, but safer.  Safer helps when there’s absolutely no one on waivers.

Round 3/4 – Felix Hernandez/Cliff Lee – We also figured there would be a lot of pitchers drafted, since each team needed at least 5 starters.  In a 20 team league, two top starters, as we have, should easily get us a near-top finish in 3 of 5 pitching categories.  (WHIP, ERA and Ks.  There’s no accounting for Wins, but we should do okay there too.)  Now we just needed to take a few flier starters later on.

Round 5 – Gordon Beckham – This is Rudy and I on IM while drafting.  Me, “C’mon, let’s take some upside!”  Him, “You and your upside.  We need safe guys who will produce.”  Me, “Our team looks like a contender… In 2006.  We need upside!”  Him, “You want Beckham?”  Me, “Please.”

Round 6 – Johnny Damon – Hold the above dialogue about Gordon Beckham in the mirror.

Round 12 – Alcides Escobar – Rudy and I both tend to punt shortstop (if we don’t get Hanley) and try to get steals from our shorstop later on.  If I remember correctly, we had Everth Cabrera and Alcides to choose from and we needed steals.  Alcides seems more likely to hit at the top of the order for more ABs than EverCab.  Honestly, these guys are such tomato-tomahto at this point, in another draft tomorrow I might go with EverCab.  To read further, Alcides Escobar sleeper post.

Round 13 – Chase Headley – I tried for Snider, but Rudy wasn’t having it.  Rudy tried for Conor Jackson; I wasn’t having it.  We settled for Headley.  If Headley were on any team other than the Padres, he would’ve received his own sleeper post.  Then again, maybe he has a sleeper post and I’ve forgotten.  Damn, Headley, you inspire excitement!

Round 14 – Kelly Johnson – He’ll be solid on Runs, fair on average, hit 15 homers and 10 steals.  Explain to me how Yunel’s better than him one hundred picks earlier.  Go ahead, I’ll wait.  *rests head in hand, taps finger, yawns*  Okay, then.

Round 15 – Casey McGehee – Least favorite pick of the draft.  I really think McGehee ends up back on the bench or in a utility role for the Brewers.  I don’t see him approaching last year’s numbers.  I think Gamel, who might not even start the year with the Brewers, will outproduce McGehee on the year.  Anyway, it was the 283rd pick of the draft and we needed some flexibility.

Round 16 – Clayton Richard – A Padres pitcher with a near 7 K/9 and projected to have a 4 ERA at pick 318?  No problem there for me.

Round 17 – Elijah Dukes – Some other guys taken this round were:  Jeff Weaver, Mike Adams, Chris Getz, Pineiro, Cahill, Maicer Izturis and Luke Scott.  To answer your question, no Chumlee wasn’t drafting for the guy who took Weaver.  That was autodrafted.  The rest of those guys I believe were present.  I always preach not to take bench hitters, but that’s for 10 team, 12 team… 14 team… Maybe in 16 team leagues… In a 20 team league, it’s tumbleweeds on waivers.

Round 19 – Jeff Clement – A’la Buddy from Cake Boss, “Now that’s how you punt catcher!”

Round 20 – Gaby Sanchez – We were looking at Kris Medlen and Carlos Santana but both were scooped right before our pick.  As for Gaby, he (she?) is an upside pick that is at the do or die stage of his (her?) career.  If he (she?) does, this could be our best value pick.

Overall – When we ran the numbers, we’re in a three-way first place tie in the preseason standings with 131 Points.  We didn’t necessarily go into the draft wanting to dominate pitching vs. hitting, but Rudy ran the Point Shares for the league and there were much better values for pitching.  To come out of a 20-team league with two of the top 10 pitchers in baseball (F-Her and Cliff Lee) is a huge advantage — one that would be impossible to attain with just 2 hitters.  Plus, we got Filthy Sanchez, a Johnson and Headley. What’s not to love?

Okay, so it’s not the best 2010 fantasy baseball team, but, man, that title sings, right?  This is the best 2010 fantasy baseball team that I can put together when drafting a player from every 12 players, according to my top 300 for 2010 fantasy baseball.  So it would be nice if I was in a league where someone drafted Lincecum in the first round and I was able to take Longoria and Howard, but since they’re both in the first 12, according to the rules I’ve set up for myself, I can’t take them both.  Also, as we all know, once you get into the 100s, there’s wide gaps between ADP and where players are actually taken.  People tend to look at team need over value.  For this exercise, I’m going to limit myself to a player just like in a snake draft, no matter what.  So if I choose Pujols, I can’t take another player until the 24th pick, then a player from somewhere in the next 12 picks.  It should still be my ideal team… Or not.  Let’s see, shall we?  Bee tee dubya, this team is 5×5, one catcher, 5 OFs, MI, CI, 1 UT, 9 P, 3 Bench.  Anyway, here’s the best 2010 fantasy baseball team:

C:  Chris Iannetta (15)

1B: Albert Pujols (1)

2B: Brandon Phillips (4)

SS: Elvis Andrus (10)

3B: Ryan Zimmerman (3)

MI: Alcides Escobar (16)

CI: Ian Stewart (9)

OF: Justin Upton (2)

OF: Adam Jones (5)

OF: Raul Ibanez (8)

OF: Corey Hart (13)

OF: Ryan Ludwick (18)

UT: Brandon Wood (24)

P: Josh Johnson (6)

P: Cliff Lee (7)

P: Matt Cain (12)

P: Jonathan Sanchez (17)

P: Gavin Floyd (21)

P: Mat Latos (23)

P: Francisco Cordero (11)

P: Octavio Dotel (14)

P: Bobby Jenks (19)

BENCH:

P: Brandon Lyon (20)

P: Scott Downs (22)

P: Matt Lindstrom (25)

So what do you think of my fantasy fantasy team?  Don’t like it?  Go to the top 300 and make up your own fantasy fantasy team and post it in the comments.

The top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball are a bit deeper this year, but they’re still shallower than the top 20 2nd basemen and ranked only ahead of the catchers for depth.  All the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found under that thing that said 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  (Don’t worry, one of my New Year’s Resolutions is to link to things a little more seamlessly).  Shortstops usually get the short end of the stick when I’m drafting.  If I don’t get Hanley, I’ll probably just take a flier on some late round player.  In leagues that play a middle infielder, then you might need two of these schmohawks.  Hopefully, you can grab two decent 2nd basemen and only need one of these guys.  As with the other top 20 rankings, I point out where I think tiers start and stop and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1.  Hanley Ramirez – Already covered him in our top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

2.  Troy Tulowitzki – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Rollins.  I call this tier, “Even the elite shortstops are no guarantees.”  Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

4.  Jose Reyes – Already covered him in our top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

5. Derek Jeter – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Zobrist.  I call this tier, “Overrated.”  I’m not going to draft Jeter in any leagues.  Some crazed Noo Yawker will get him before I can even think about it.  I do like him a bit more going into 2010 than I did in last season’s preseason after seeing how hitter-friendly The Stadium Adjacent To The House That Ruth Built is.  2010 Projections:  110/16/70/.315/20

6. Jason Bartlett – I don’t buy into Bartlett’s 2009.  In October, I said, “I didn’t believe the high average in May and I still don’t (he hit around .230 in September).  I’m pretty sure when February Grey gets around to going through guys that will disappoint in 2010, Bartlett’s name will be there.”  That was a *pinkie to mouth*  Bartlett Quotation.  Okay, so January Grey’s here to say, February Grey’s got nothing on me.  Bartlett more than doubled his homer per fly ball rate so I don’t believe the 14 homers, either.  Average outlier + power outlier + repeatable, but not blazing speed = Pass.  2010 Projections:  95/7/50/.285/27

7. Ben Zobrist – Went over Zobrist in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

8. Elvis Andrus – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Asdrubal.  I call this tier, “Since there’s so few top shortstops, we’re left with upside.” Andrus is ranked ahead of Alexei and Drew simply because his value comes from speed and that doesn’t just disappear, unlike guys whose value is predicated on power.  Can Andrus jump into the upper tiers like Drew and Alexei can?  It’s possible, and they have more downside.  They’re all real close and I could see taking any of them depending on how you’re assembling your team.  Your eyes want more?  Elvis Andrus sleeper.  2010 Projections:  75/8/50/.270/37

9. Alexei Ramirez – I’m usually a peaceful person, but this guy made me want to choke someone out last year.  Preferably Alexei.  His homers should bounce back a bit from last year, but his .277 average looks pretty right on.  He’s established that he starts slow, so if you do draft him keep that in mind.  2010 Projections:  70/18/80/.280/15

10. Stephen Drew – Rising ground ball rate, falling fly ball rate… Who’s this guy trying to be, Luis Castillo?  Hit the ball in the air!  After his 2008 season, Drew had more promise than the first twenty minutes of Inglourious Basterds.  Then Drew’s 2009 was spent running a French movie theater and falling in love with a black guy.  Hopefully, Drew’s 2010 can be set in a tavern basement and get the ball rolling again.  2010 Projections:  85/22/75/.265/4

11. Asdrubal Cabrera – Went over Asdrubal in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball post.

12. Yunel Escobar – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Peralta.  I call this tier, “I’m punting this tier.”  Yunel could get to 17 homers (a long shot), but he has the speed of a man 300 pounds heavier, assuming that man isn’t Pablo Sandoval.  2010 Projections:  90/15/75/.305/3

14. Miguel Tejada – On C-SPAN, Jim Bunning is arguing in front of Congress that Tejada’s high average last year should be withdrawn from all official records because of a high BABIP.  2010 Projections: 70/15/85/.295/4

14. J.J. Hardy – I’ll give this to Hardy, I almost dropped him to the Furcal tier, indicating I would almost draft him.  Maybe in my horseshoes or hand grenade draft.  2010 Projections:  65/23/80/.260

15. Marco Scutaro – Marco…. Scutaro… Whatevero.  2010 Projections:  70/11/80/.275/7

16. Erick Aybar – I get a utility man vibe from Aybar.  If you draft him, there’s a 95% chance of you dropping him before May.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.290/17

17. Jhonny Peralta – If you don’t have nothing nice to say, then don’t say nothing.  2010 Projections: 75/18/85/.265

18. Rafael Furcal – This is the last tier.  This tier I call, “These are fliers I’m taking a chance on late.”  Furcal’s a bit of a wild card to even be around still by this tier.  Someone will draft him earlier, totally forgetting what happened last year Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer-style.  Others will see his last month as a sign of good things to come.  If he’s around at the end of your draft, I’d take a flier that there’s still a bit left in the tank.  He is admittedly not a very exciting flier.  Hey, they can’t all be Alcides Escobar.  2010 Projections:  90/10/55/.275/20

19.  Alcides Escobar – I compared him to a 2009 Elvis Andrus in the Alcides Escobar fantasy sleeper post.  Go look at it.  Go ahead.  The Royal We will be here.  2010 Projections:  80/5/55/.265/40

20. Ryan Theriot – Feels like a poor man’s Alcides… Or maybe it’s a conservative man’s Alcides.  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.285/22

There’s lots of guys after the top 20 shortstops for 2010 fantasy baseball, but these two stand out:

Ian Desmond – Went over him in my Ian Desmond Fantasy sleeper, keeper, something or other post.  2010 Projections:  85/10/60/.275/20

Everth Cabrera -  Here it is.  The last guy you could conceivably take and still get an affirmative head nod from yours truly.  You want that affirmative head nod or not?  It’s up to you.  If you need 30-plus steals late in your draft, then EverCab can do the trick.  (EverCab is also available for bar mitzvahs.)  2010 Projections:  85/3/50/.260/35