Fantasy Baseball Advice

When Heath Bell looked like garbage on Sunday, Frank Francisco returned serve with three of his own runs.  It was like watching a tennis match between Jon Lovitz and that guy from Felicity.  Rather than getting the hook by his manager, Frank-Frank was ejected for arguing balls and strikes.  The ump should’ve told him, “With your stuff, I wouldn’t have the balls to throw strikes either.”  Jon Rauch is next in line here, but, before the ink can dry on his neck, he could lose the job too.  Though, I would grab him, in the non-sexual way.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Ike Davis – Sat out yesterday with flu-like symptoms.  Like.  Oh.  My.  Gahd.  I hopes it’s not Valley Fever.

Heath Bell – Ozzie Guillen has come to the conclusion that Edward Mujica and Steve Cishek are simply just as awful at closing games as Bell has been, so they might as well go with the guy with the bad contract.  So, once again, Bell is officially unofficially your Marlins closer and, as previously mentioned, he gave up two runs on Sunday.  I’d continue to hold Cishek and Mujica.  Bell needs to either go to the Disgraceful List or do some mop-up duty.  Despite the closer craziness, the past week the Marlins have got it done, winning 10 of their last 12 games.  A rational person might say to me, “The Marlins have played the Giants, Padres and Astros as of late, don’t get too excited.”  I am an irrational person, so it must be their new uniforms!

Giancarlo Stanton – 3-for-5 with a grand slam.  Is it just me or are you waiting for him to announce his name is actually Giancarlos Tanton?

Joey Votto – 4-for-5, 4 runs, 6 RBIs and 3 homers.  Votto bing, Votto boom.

Brian Fuentes – Was named the new A’s closer.  I literally wrote everything else in this post then came back to this to make sure he was still the closer.  If I wake up at 3 AM tonight and stumble back to my office, he may no longer be the closer.  He’s on a short leash with a cone and muzzle.  If he gets too far off the leash, he doesn’t give his owners rabies, he gives them ERAbies.

Brandon McCarthy – 7 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 10 Ks.  Look at him K’ing people with reckless a-Brandon.  McCarthy feels like one of those guys that you can get for cheap in a trade, but could be way more valuable.  He’s literally in every fifth comment as a guy people want to drop, and I use the word ‘literally’ metaphorically.

Jarrod Parker – 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 10 baserunners (4 BBs), 5 Ks.  I doubt anyone’s actually buying (as in trading for), but you should be careful with Parker.  He’s due for some Liquid Paper getting dropped on his stats.

Bud Norris – Got the win on Friday with 6.0 IP, 1 ER and 8Ks.  Old James MacDonald pitched 8 innings and also struck out 8 in a pitchers’ duel.  And a Bud at McDonald’s is a combo meal in The Bootheel of Missouri.

Bryce Harper – On Friday, he threw his bat at the wall in frustration and needed 10 stitches as it bounced back and hit him in the head.  ESPN is auctioning off the bat with the proceeds going to TD (Teenaged Dipshits).

Wilson Ramos – Torn ACL and out for the year.  On the positive side, he’s now way too gimpy for kidnappers to lug around.

Danny Espinosa – Got a couple of hits on Sunday, homered Friday and Saturday while adding in two steals.  If it’s not obvious and you need me to spell it out, he’s H-O-T.

Henry Rodriguez – 2/3 IP, 4 ER with a massive blown save on Sunday.  I shut the game off before the Votto grand slam, knowing it was coming.  Then after it happened, I refreshed the box score a few times hoping it would change.  It’s a soul-crushing defeat when you know it’s gonna happen, then don’t believe it when it does.  Must’ve been what it felt like when Dewey tried to move his stuff into the White House with only a copy of the Dewey Defeats Truman newspaper.

Brian Dozier - 2-for-5 with his first homer.  I wouldn’t expect much here; he’s pretty yawnstipating.  It’s no coincidence that his last name is French for sleep (not true).

Scott Diamond – 7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Now has back-to-back 7 inning scoreless starts.  In AL-Only leagues, he could provide some value if he can continue his low walk-rate and so-so K-rate.  But in AL-Only leagues, Bruce Chen is valuable, so take that with a grain of salt, which is a crystal as is a diamond.  How’s that for circular reasoning?

Andy Pettitte – 6 1/3 IP, 4 ER, 10 baserunners, 2 Ks vs. the M’s.  Against a major league offense, that’s 5 IP, 5 ER.  That’s not exactly a comeback on par with Lance Armstrong returning less nutso.

Carlos Ruiz – 6th HR on Friday.  Ruiz is batting .330 and leads the Phillies offense along with Juan Pierre.  Or JuanCarlos if Stanton’s renaming them.

Jimmy Rollins – 1-for-4 with his 1st homer.  Only one more to catch Chone Figgins!

Jesus Montero -  Hit a home run on Friday against his old team as he punishes New York for trading him to the Mariners.  You could taste the bad blood.  Mmm… Iron.

Justin Smoak – Hit a homer yesterday and is 6 for his last 12 as he got to hit away from Safeco.  Gets Fenway and Coors this week and could be a short term play.  Seriously, no kindling with Smoak.

Addison Reed – Robin Ventura is planning on splitting his save chances between Thornton, Reed and Santiago.  I think it’s appropriate to call Ventura by his cartoon onomatopoeia name:  VenturARGH.  And, because Reed seemed like the guy to own, he gave up 6 earned runs in a third of an inning yesterday.  To give up 6 earned in a third of an inning is, like a bowling alley that doesn’t cater to dwarfs will tell ya, no small feat.   At this rate, I don’t think I’d pick up any White Sox relievers in any shallow mixed league.  I need this ulcer?  No, no I don’t.  If you really need the saves, I’d grab Santiago, Reed or Thornton, in that order.

Chris Sale – 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 baserunners, 3 Ks.  When you go for a ‘precautionary’ MRI (something I get all the time!), and you’re moved around to help ‘save’ your elbow, then throw a pretty mediocre start, I think something is wrong and you’d be wise to sell him quickly.  But I’m not a doctor, though I did fall asleep while watching a Scrubs rerun last night.

Carlos Beltran – 4-for-5 with 2 home runs and 4 RBIs on Friday and hit his 13th homer on Sunday.  He’s doing his best Albert Pujols impression, the pre-Angels Pujols.  Yes, it took Pujols to go to the Angels to become mortal.  The irony!

Allen Craig – 3-for-5, 3 RBIs and his 5th homer on Sunday, after homering on Friday.  Bad enough that he double-dipped on first names when there’s people without one — R. Kelly, “Tell me about it!”  But now there’s people out there who can’t buy a homer in their leagues (me!) and this guy now has 5.

Rafael Furcal – 3-for-3 with his 7th steal, while batting .383 on the year.  Still think he’s more of an Early Bird Special than a Zombino.  You get two Facebook Likes if you understood that.

Lance Lynn – 6 IP, 3 ER, 7 baserunners, 7 Ks.  If you’ve owned him all year, you know this is less spectacular than he’s been.  Or spectaculess, if you like portmanteaus.

Josh Hamilton – Homerton was 3-for-4 with two more home runs on Friday to bring his total to 17.  The first player since Albert Pujols (who?) in 2006 to hit that many home runs in only 33 games.  Then he hit his 18th homer on Saturday.  18 homers?  I have 31 homers in one of my NL-Only leagues.

Mike Trout – Got his first slam & legs on Friday.  In related rookie news, ESPN ran a feature on Bryce Harper’s TD telethon.

C.J. Wilson -  Got roughed up in his Texas homecoming by Hamilton and the boys 1/3 IP, 3 H, 4 ER.  Then Matthew Modine started screaming “You wanna have another go at it” and Wilson agreed.  So, on Saturday, he went 5 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 8 baserunners, 4 Ks.  Then on Sunday, he rested.  Geez, with the God complex.

Mark Reynolds – Lands on the DL after throwing batting practice on Friday.  He said, “I got carried away with what I was trying to do.  It just looks so easy to strike me out.”

Xavier Avery – O’s called up their outfield prospect and played him in left field yesterday as he went 0-for-4.  Now for the Mystique behind X-Man.  He has some speed (and very light power), and will struggle to hit for much of an average in the majors.  In AL-Only leagues, he’s SAGNOF.

Jake Arrieta – 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER vs. the Rays.  He’s been absolutely clobbered in his last two starts.  I’d definitely look elsewhere, since I’m not a huge fan of O’s starters to begin with.  My O’s starter face is a straight line for my lips and a slow blink of the eyes.  It looks like ‘meh.’

Nick Johnson – Homered in back-to-back games that he started (Friday and Sunday).  He was in good spirits after the game, smiling in the locker room.

Danny Duffy – Left yesterday’s game with what is being described as “medial left elbow tightness.”  Sounds like medial up a different starter.

Alcides Escobar – 3-for-3, 2 runs and 1 RBI.  He’s been on and off my teams so many times the elastic is completely shot.

Jeff Francoeur – 2-for-5, 2 RBIs with his first Frenchy fly of the season, or Freedom Fly if you’re still harboring shizz.

Desmond Jennings – Has now missed six games with a sore knee.  Instead of day-to-day, they could’ve told us day-to-week.  Might’ve been helpful.

Ben Zobrist – Slam and legs with a side of mash (3 hits!) and Elliot Johnson also slammed, legged and mashed.  Johnson is 7 for his last 13 with two steals and a homer.  Could be a nice pickup if you’re struggling at MI.  BTW, if someone asks you if you’re struggling at MI, your answer is IM.

Carlos Marmol – Since the start this year, he looked like Apollo vs. Ivan Drago in the exhibition match.  Finally, the Cubs threw in the towel with Marmol’s head landing on top of it and on the Disgraceful List.

Bryan LaHair – Since Friday’s Sell, he’s 1-for-14 with 6 Ks.  Cust kayin’.

Jeff Samardzija – 5 IP, 1 ER, 5 baserunners, 6 Ks.  The best thing I can say about Samardetc. is I wish I owned him on all my teams.

Rickie Weeks – His wrist showed no breaks and his bat showed no hits.

Kevin Youkilis – Cleared to swing a bat.  Sounds like positive news for a guy at Hedonism after a cliff diving accident.

Will Middlebrooks – 2-for-3, 3 runs, 2 RBIs and his 4th homer.  If Youk pushes Middlebrooks to Triple-A, there’s gonna be a letter written to Jimmy Breslin from a Son of Sam Horn.

Matt Kemp – Left yesterday’s game aggravating his tight hamstring.  Said he’s going for an MRI, but will only miss a game.  Um, well, guess we can hope.  How do we get this hammy cured?  Because those are delicious.

Juan Rivera – Could miss two months with a ruptured hamstring tendon.  Dude, c’mon, the day of rupture isn’t until December 21st.

I liked me some Brandon Morrow, but I’m thinking of the old Morrow (not Edward Murrow) that had no control and sat down hitters like he was a furniture salesman whose favorite line was, “Try it out.”  I talked briefly in our last podcast about Morrow.  Rudy tends to think Morrow is a new and improved pitcher.  I think Rudy’s standing too close to a newly-glued diorama.  I just want to get out the facts about Morrow that we think we know compared to what we do know.  FACT:  He’s never had control.  NOT FACT:  Without control, he’s now able to pitch the ball exactly where hitters can make contact, but not get a base hit.  FACT:  His FIP is saying he’s getting lucky.  NOT FACT:  He can leave more runners on than other pitchers.  FACT:  His career walk rate is 4.39.  NOT FACT:  This year he can continue to shave more than two walks per nine off his rate.  FACT:  He pitches in the AL East.  NOT FACT:  He has a parakeet named, Chisel Jaw, that he dresses up in WWII pilot gear with a mini parachute.  FACT:  He’s injury prone.  NOT FACT:  Whenever he orders halibut, he shrugs and says, “I don’t know why I’m ordering this.  Maybe just for the halibut.”  FACT:  He’s at the peak of his value.  NOT FACT:  He liked Jordin Sparks’ latest album on Facebook.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Steve Cishek – Ozzie wrapped a towel around his neck, had Joey Cora spray him with some water so it looked like he just stepped out of a sauna and said Heath Bell’s still his closer.  Two things I don’t agree with there.  First, Heath Bell’s terrible no matter how many times Ozzie says he’s the closer.  Second, if you spray olive oil instead of water, it holds the look of perspiration much better.

Edward Mujica – Member what I said about Heath Bell about twelve words ago?  Yup.

Brian Fuentes – I’d pick up Fuentes in some leagues.  I’d pick up Ryan Cook in some leagues.  I’d even pick up that Eddie Murphy movie guy, Norberto, in some leagues.  But this is far from a clear path to SAGNOF success.

Scott Downs – The Sciosciapath needs Adderall after replacing his closer for one blown save.  I think Walden gets the job back (or back, back, back if Chris Berman is reading), but Downs should definitely be owned.

David Robertson – I went over him this morning.  Try hitting down on your scrolly finger.

Matt Thornton – It’s been a long winding road for Hector Santiago this first month of the season.  At times he looked hittable and at other times he made Matt Thornton actually look good.

Jason Vargas – Marginer!

Chris Capuano – He’s no spring chicken.  His time for greatness has past (unless he goes to Japan, reinvents himself and returns a new pitcher named, Chris Dragono), but he could be that ever-elusive pitcher at the back end of your staff that stabilizes things.  Think Kuroda when he was in LA.

Drew Smyly – People are sure taking a long time to add The Emoticon.  I don’t trust people who el oh el after everything on Facebook that isn’t remotely funny — “Oh my God, my baby just wet itself while I was talking to the bank teller el oh el el oh el el oh el!”  Unless your baby is 37 years old, that’s not funny — But an emoticon?  It’s so innocuous.  And it has Ks.

Mike Trout – Unlike Bryce Harper, I don’t think Trout is deep-water fish.  He could give you 10+ homers and 25 steals right now.  On a side note, for my birthday, I want a picture of Trout, Tim Salmon, Kevin Bass and me in snorkel gear.  Someone make that happen.  Thank you.

Jed Lowrie – WHO! (While Healthy Own)

Alcides Escobar – WHO!  (Now the H is hitting, instead of healthy.)

Josh Reddick – WHO!  (Who let the dogs out?)

Ty Wigginton – I picked up Wigginton to replace Zimmerman and he’s been better than him.  And that’s not saying anything.  That’s like the opposite of saying something.  It’s like the guy who blinked that novel not even blinking.

Allen Craig – Know why he’s here?  Because of this:  Random Razzball Commenter, “Wow, surprised not to see Allen Craig on this list.”

Will Middlebrooks – I just went over my Will Middlebrooks fantasy.  If you click on that link, you’ll burn 7 calories.  You’re welcome, Michelle Obama!

Tony Campana – He steals like the wind… Did you hear that last line in my voice?  I’m in your head now.  Hey, what’s this thing do?  Oops, I think I just spilled chocolate sauce on your medulla oblongata.  I’ll leave your head now.  Sorry.

Chris Johnson – On one hand, I like Chris Johnson.  On the other hand, I don’t like Astro hitters.  On the third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on a broomstick, Johnson’s hitting over .300 with some slight speed and power.

Pedro Alvarez – If you went up to a girl at the bar and asked her if you should pick up Chris Davis or Pedro Alvarez, she’d smell the desperation on you.  Here, at Razzball, we welcome desperation and Pedro Alvarez.

SELL

Bryce Harper – But he uses the Shroud of Turin to apply eye black!  And he once ordered pizza to Syracuse from Rome, Italy on a borrowed cell phone!  And he has a butterfly named after him!  The Bryce Harpertail is rare and only found on the island of Guam, but it’s named after him!  Guys (and 4 girls), he’s not going to be the greatest thing since a Hello Kitty toaster this year.  He was struggling in the minors.  Maybe he was disinterested, as most 19 year old’s get, but he’s still only a 10-15 homer, 10-15 steal guy right now.  His value because of hype is way above that.  I wouldn’t sell him for a Groupon to the Ren-Faire, but I’d explore options.  (Don’t sell in keepers.  I’m talking about redraft leagues here.)

Danny Espinosa – It’s with much rueful rumination and fervor that I gather words that I don’t use when I’m speaking or really know what they mean, when I tell you Espinosa is a wanksta that needs some serious minor league seasoning.

Adam Lind – You win some, and you draft Adam Lind and he’s not winsome.

Can you get him for cheaper than he’s worth?  Is panic mode setting in for his owner?  Is he walking around muttering Effjols?  When you look into the eyes of your opponent who owns Albert Pujols, what do you see?  Do you see someone who is hiding tears, pretending they just came out of Subway and the godforsaken onion smell that you need to walk on the other side of the street to avoid has caused them to cry?  Or do you see someone steeled in their resolve?  If it’s the former and former is the first one, you pounce like a feral cat that you’re allergic to.  A feral, I-used-to-be-tame-but-now-I’m-gonna-scratch-your-eyes-out-and-put-them-on-a-kebab-and-serve-them-with-tabouli cat!  There’s no way Pujols just ups and leaves Fantasy Worthiness Land, unless the Angels accidentally signed Alburt Pujols, Albert’s evil, mustachioed brother who the Pujols family disowned 30 years ago and has been plotting his revenge ever since.  (Albert) Pujols has 30 homers, 100 RBIs, 100 runs, .300 average for breakfast and then says he has room for dessert.  Who has dessert with breakfast?!  Albert Pujols does.  You don’t trade that away for pennies on the dollar, but you do prey on the weak and buy that.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Tony Campana – Campana is so steals-crazy he’s like the jittery, smoking guy who asks you where the bathroom is in a bad part of town and you instinctively hold your backpocket to make sure he doesn’t rob your wallet.  That’s Tony Campana.

Luke Scott – The “Luke Scott has cooled off!” and “No, he hasn’t!” camps have moved further apart than Israel and Palestine.  Right now, I’m in the “No, he hasn’t!” camp, but if the U.S. sends in a healthy Nolan Reimold, I may be swayed to flip sides.

Gerardo Parra – Almost hate promoting Parra because it means no Krispie.  Member that fine brother who left his face in the Chase Field wall like Han Solo in carbon?  Miss you, Krispie!  Parra is a decent, not great, five category guy.

Brennan Boesch – For a while there, Boesch looked like cold soup, which is seriously nasty.  Has anyone ever had cold soup that’s tasted good?  I feel like you need to be an old Russian woman to like it.  Anyway, Boesch is in a great spot in the lineup and now hitting.

Stephen Drew – Wondering who the next guy is that you stash on your DL and then drop him once you have to activate him?  Here ya go!

Alcides Escobar – Here’s another guy I’ve be on for about two years and finally it’s looking like it might make a modicum of sense.  He has nice speed and he’s actually hitting.  Like peas and carrots, those two.

Bryan LaHair – Sure, you kinda want to call him B. Bryan LaHair, and don’t believe in love at first sight, but I believe in love at first.  Can I be with LaHair just one night?  Nah, but I could wear him outside like a suit made of cheddarwurst.  Did that rhyme?  I’m not sure it matters.

Francisco Cordero – Santos isn’t returning for at least a month with shoulder issues.  My best guess is Cordero saves more games than Santos this year.  Actually, that’s not my best guess, but my most realistic guess.  My best guess would be Lichtenstein.  But that’s my best guess for every question.  Why don’t they let me on Jeopardy?

Santiago Casilla – Not sure why he’s still owned in less than 50% of leagues (usually my cutoff), but he is.  Wilson’s out for the year; Casilla will get saves.  Don’t make me hack your fantasy account and add him!

Matt Thornton – Look up chilly in the dictionary and you find Santiago.  Pun point!  Could Reed be next?  Could be… Well, could be a few guys, but my money’s on Thornton.

Ross Detwiler – Prior to the 2007 draft, he was considered the 2nd best lefty behind only Price.  Shizz got derailed, or Detwilered.  At one point, he had a 9+ K-rate and solid control.  He might be a really late-bloomer.  I’d prefer that than a guy that has never been anything, but had one great game *cough* Humber *cough*.

Tommy Milone -  His last start was like someone playing Scramble on their iPhone.  Amazing!  Incredible!  Genius!  Wanna look behind the curtain at how I put together these Buy/Sells?  Come with me, attractive-to-your-mother friend!  I usually look at the most added and dropped players in ESPN, but I saw Milone wasn’t there, so I figured he was owned in so many leagues that he wasn’t applicable.  But then I got thinking — hey, sometimes thinking happens.  So I Googled Milone’s name to see how much he’s owned.  He’s owned in 5% of leagues.  (For reference point, Ryan Madson is owned in 12% of leagues; yes, the Ryan Madson that isn’t playing for 12 months.)  So it wasn’t that Milone was owned, it was that he wasn’t being added.  He has a 0.85 WHIP in 27 innings.  If you have a middle reliever for ratio help, the best middle reliever may not have a 0.85 WHIP through 27 innings, and it would take until June to get that many innings.  You might be saying to yourself, “Well, a lot of good this info does me now after he’s already thrown those innings.”  A) Before his first start on April 6th, I said to Buy him.  B) Going forward, I still like him for ratio help.  C) Seriously, what more do you need?  You’re bleeding me dry of fantasy baseball ‘pertness!

Jason Hammel – As mentioned the other day, he gets the Bronx jeers in his next start, but you should own him.

Trevor Bauer – He’s on his way.  Eventually.  How do I know?  I read it on Twitter along with something Ashton Kutcher’s assistant wrote anonymously.  If you have room on your team, move the mattress you saturated in cat urine to hide the weed smell and stash Bauer.

Jarrod Parker – Parker’s no poseur you indie, black-rimmed glasses kid, but if you grab him, because of his jersey, you can tell your friends you’re going green.  Even pick him up using your iPhone while driving your Prius and not paying attention to the road so you run over a pedestrian.

SELL

Ike Davis – How about those fences coming in, huh?  Good ol’ Metco!  You know when I’ll be excited by Mets hitters?  When they move the fences behind home plate.  I don’t mean the fences that are behind there already.  I mean, moving the outfield fences to the other side of home.  Bunt homers!  That’s what I’m looking for.  Davis’s own manager sold him down the river when a lefty came out of the bullpen, pinch hitting for him.  In shallower leagues, make like Tina and drop Ike.  In deeper ones, I’d probably shove him to my bench with Adam Dunn or whatever schmohawk you’re fatally attached to.

Mark Reynolds – I was trying to hold out hope for Mini Donkey but he looks like he’s headed for a Big Donkey circa 2011 season.  A slump for a guy that strikes out nine out of five times to the plate is death.  What’s that smell in here?  “Grey’s cleaning out some mold that was forming in my fridge!  I’ll be up in a second to clip your toenails!”  That’s you talking to your Mom.

Gaby Sanchez – “My Mom’s busting my chops and Yo Gaby Gaby was in the last Sell column!  Get to the good ones!”  Okay, moving on.

Derek Jeter – You know who’s smiling right now?  Minka.  Let the haters hate, right, Minka?  I hear ya, girl.  A’la Clubber Lang, “Let me know if you want a real, mustachioed man!”  I have nothing against Jeter.  Maybe he’s going all Zombino and eating the hearts of pitchers all year.  Though I seriously doubt that.  Do you remember how low he was going in drafts this year?  Do you remember why?  Because he’s been The Sexiest Man Alive That Can’t Hit 12 Homers Or Steal 20 Bases.  Is he hot garbage?  Did you just dump a fresh off a hot plate Rooty Tooty Fresh and Fruity into the trash?  No?  Then he’s not hot garbage.  He should hit around .300 and get around 10-ish homers and steals.  Yippee!  Whooooooo cares?  I’ll take Altuve and see Jeter on the other side of I still don’t care.  His name value is so much more valuable than actual value.  I wouldn’t trade him for a five DVD set of Step By Step’s third season, but I’d explore options.

Now this is a position I am bearish on to a point for 2012.  On the one hand, there aren’t many SS I really want to draft.  I like Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Reyes and Starlin Castro and that’s really it.  The thing is, after those three, I don’t feel like I have a leg up on the competition for 2012 if I draft any of them.  What’s the difference between Elvis Andrus and Dee Gordon when we look at expectations for this year?  How about comparing Asdrubal Cabrera to Erik Aybar?  My perfect team has either Castro or Tulo on it, with the high likelihood that its Starlin on my team.  I’d balance him out by going for power from my next SS, take J.J. Hardy in the 11th or 12th.  But really, your team is not going to be strong or weak based upon what your SS does this year.  If I miss out on those top 3, I’d even talk myself into waiting for the Escobars, Yunel and Alcides, while bulking up elsewhere.  ‘Waiting for the Escobars’…sounds like a movie title.

I’ll Avoid:

Hanley Ramirez – I traded him away in 2011 for Tulo in a keeper league and have no regrets.  I do think 2011 was an aberration for Hanley but the trendline is there.  His power is in decline and you add to that a position change with a hurt shoulder, I don’t know if we can expect 20/25 from him this year.  It’s his power that separates him from Jose Reyes in the rankings.  If he hits .290 and goes 15/25, is he really worth more than Reyes’ .290 with 10/40?  Unless your league scores extra points for lack of hustle, the answer is no.

Asdrubal Cabrera – It pains me to say this seeing as he’s a keeper for me this year but his 2011 was so far out of line with his career arc to date, the ADP has high expectations already baked into the cake.  15/15 with a .280 average is nice, but what’s wrong with Jimmy Rollins‘ .265 15/25 a round later?  Of course, we know I’m not drafting either guy but you get the point.  If Asdrubal repeats his 2011 and doesn’t tire down the stretch like he did last year – he hadn’t played a full season since 2009 – then you’re getting him at his market value.  I’d just rather not find out if he can match his asking price.

I’ll Go For:

Zack Cozart - Bill James projects him for 13/16 and a .250-ish average in 130 games and he’s going after the 20th round.  Tell me why I’m targeting middle-tier SS again that go before the 10th round?  I’m still trying to figure that one out.  I’ll take him as my secondary SS (sorry for that, lispers) and be fine with it.

Ruben Tejada - Now I almost went with Alcides Escobar because he should steal you 25 to 30 bags and hit .275.  He seemed to really figure it out after June of last year, stealing 21 of his 26 bags.  Hrm, two sentences in and I’ve already talked more about the guy I almost went with and maybe I should’ve.  However, I want to highlight what Ruben Tejada did in 376 plate appearances last year: .284 average with a .360 OBP.  ‘Yeah and what else did he do?’ you ask.  Well, truth be told absolutely nothing.  However, he’ll be dual eligible in yahoo leagues and is going virtually undrafted even in larger leagues with an ADP of 402.  Plus, he’s only going to be 22 this year.  Call this one more a shot in the dark over hard evidence but I like hitters who have a good batting eye and feel like the rest can sort itself out.  Maybe he turns into Marco Scutaro.  Maybe he turns into Yunel Escobar.  Or maybe he turns into Kate Upton.  Or maybe…mmmm…Kate Upton…

Situation to Monitor: New York Yankees

Let’s take a look at the age of that infield, shall we?  Robinson Cano is 29 so he’s fine.  Mark Teixiera is 32 in April so still, we’re in the range of youngish.  Derek Jeter is 37…kids, he didn’t just decide to go with the bald look cuz it was cool.  Then you’ve got Alex Rodriguez at 36, he of the 124.5 games played average since 2008.  Even if these two manage to hold up over the course of the year, their backup Eduardo Nunez is going to be resting those gams quite a lot to make sure their playoff run doesn’t have to start with a visit to the retirement home for their lineup.  There’s a good chance with the age of the Yankees we see either A-Rod or Jeter come close to full time DH duties or combine there enough to get Eduardo a large total of ABs this year.  Considering he stole 22 bases in just over 300 ABs last year, you could hamstring strain yourself into 30 SBs from someone who might go largely undrafted.  To quote Kiefer Sutherland in his Bank of America ads: nice, remarkably nice.

There’s no Reyes, Tulo or Hanley on this list of shortstops.  This list is guys that can be had later in your drafts if you’ve punted shortstop or are still looking for a middle infielder.  Look at this as a supplement to the top 20 shortstops of 2012 fantasy baseball.  If you’re feeling especially adventurous, click on the player’s name to read more about them or to see their 2012 projections.  I’m going to start this list of targets at the 141 ADP cut off.  You say, “Arbitrary!”  I say, “Why are you saying arbitrary to a computer screen?  No one can hear you.”  Anyway, here’s some shortstops to target for 2012 fantasy baseball:

Dee Gordon – Something I didn’t mention in the lede, but did mention in the lede in the 2nd basemen to target post is I am actually targeting these guys for my shortstop spot and not just for my MI.  I tend to punt shortstop, not to the point where I’m looking to draft Ruben Tejada or Robert Andino, but to around 120 overall.  I could have two 2nd basemen (one for 2nd and one for MI) before I start thinking about shortstop.  There’s just very little value to found earlier.  As for Dee Gordon, he could steal 70 bases and it wouldn’t totally shock me.  I don’t think he does, but the fact he could makes him a must target in all leagues.  He’s going at 141 on average at Mock Draft Central (see, it wasn’t that arbitrary).  He could give you Michael Bourn’s stats at shortstop, that’s Bourn who is being drafted almost 100 picks earlier.  (Bee tee dubya, who the eff uses the word lede?  What, I’m a newsie?)

Emilio Bonifacio – Small ball theme going on here.  Maybe we can get Whitey to send Willie McGee to our draft for us.  Would be reminiscent of that deleted scene from Mask when Rocky Dennis goes for sushi and the chef commits seppuku.

Ian Desmond – Why do people hate Ian Desmond?  Better still, why do I like Ian Desmond?  His projections aren’t really much different than Erick Aybar who is being drafted about 150 spots earlier than him.  That’s why I like him.  He’s a cheap 10/20 guy.  Last year he had 25 steals.  That seems about the ceiling, but he could swipe 30 if everything breaks right.  I like that too.  I have his projections down for 70/10/65/.250/22.  If he gets off to a hot start, he could cement his place at the top of the Nats order and my projected counting stats will actually seem low by the end of the year.  I like that a lot.

Zack Cozart – In drafts so far, Cozart is all but an afterthought.  Right now, he’s being drafted around the same spot as players that you shouldn’t ever draft (Derrek Lee, Kurt Suzuki, etc.) or last round catchers (Doumit, Saltymochachino, etc.).  In 2010, Cozart went 17/30 in Triple-A, then was headed that way again last year in Triple-A when he went 7/9 in only 77 games.  When he was promoted to the Reds last year, he hit 2 quick homers in 11 games before going down to Tommy John surgery on his non-throwing arm, which is no longer a concern.  I’ve already begged Rudy to draft Cozart in one league.  I want Cozart in every league.  He is the epitome of a great late round flyer.  If he performs well, he’s better than shortstops being drafted at least 200 spots ahead of him.  If he does poorly, whatever, it’s shortstop, just pick up someone else off waivers.

Alcides Escobar – He stole 26 bases last year and he stole 42 in Triple-A.  If he steps in shizz, he hits .280 and also gives you the same value as Erick Aybar 200 picks later.

Tyler Pastornicky – To answer your question, Random Razzball Commenter, “I like Cozart a lot more than Pastornicky.”  As for your second question, “Yes, Pastornicky sounds like the clergyman that Carmella made out with on The Sopranos.”

Eduardo Nunez – This is a very deep league sleeper.  If you are drafting Nunez, you better be in a league where almost everyone with everyday ABs is already taken.  Now what does Eduardo need to get everyday ABs for himself?  A Jeter or A-Rod injury.  Yeah, those things would never happen!  If Nunez can get 400 ABs, he could get 30 steals.  Definitely worth a shot in AL-Only leagues and very deep mixed ones.

Sean Rodriguez – I’m admittedly down on Sean-Rod this year in the non-sexual way.  He could surprise with 15+ homers and 15+ steals and if it’s gonna happen any year it’ll be this year.  Hey, I just talked myself into not being that down on him… That was easy.  Now let’s see if I can work up some enthusiasm again for Chris Davis.  *scrunches up face, forcing out enthusiasm*  Nope, no enthusiasm, but I did just poop myself.