Yesterday, went over the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. Today is, you guessed it! The top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. There’s fifteen pitchers in these twenty that I will draft. Can you guess which ones? No, not the ones named Chuck. There are no Chucks. Are you even trying? You’ll see from these twenty starters that even the ones I like I’m not quite as jazzed about them. I’m thinking I’m gonna end up with Greinke, Moore and Samardzija on every team and be done with the top 40 starters. Due to drafting about six to seven bazillion teams (rounding up a kajillion), I might mix it up here and there. All of the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings are there. As always, my projections and where tiers start and stop are includamente. That’s Spanish. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball:
21. R.A. Dickey – This tier started in the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. This tier ends at Shields. I called this tier, “On my HP Tablet, I designed this tier to be lower than others have them. Now excuse me while I go over to the Lord & Taylor accessory wall.” When Dickey went to the Blue Jays, I wrote up my R.A. Dickey 2013 fantasy. There’s only two cock jokes. Sorry, ladies. 2013 Projections: 16-8/3.38/1.17/182
22. James Shields – When Shields went to the Royals, here’s what I said, “Poor guy. Now he has to contend (bad word choice) with the Royals. He’s gonna forever be known as the guy the Royals gave Wil Myers away for (and Mike Montgomery and Jake Odorizzi — Jesus!). In 2011, he had an xFIP of 3.25. In 2012, he had a xFIP of 3.24. In 2011, he had a K-rate of 8.12. In 2012, he had a K-rate of 8.82. In 2011, he had an ERA of 2.82. In 2012, he might’ve had a better year even though his ERA was 3.52. That’s the good news. The bad news is his Home ERA in his career is 3.33, and his Away ERA is 4.54. Sure, his Fenway ERA was 5.86 and Yankee Stadium ERA was 6.35, but his Kaufman Stadium ERA is 6.38, his Progressive Field ERA is 4.44, his Hubert H. Homerfree Retrodome ERA is even 3.79. The only place he’s had success is in Comerica. I was going to like Shields this year. Now, I’m not messing with him.” And that’s me quoting me! 2013 Projections: 13-10/3.77/1.26/198
23. Yu Darvish – This is a a new tier. This tier goes from here until Peavy. I call this tier, “I’ll grab one of these guys when possible; just not going apeshizz cray cray.” What I mean by this tier is I’ll probably not sweat it if someone drafts one of these guys prior to me, but I will draft them if they’re there (stutterer!). In April and September, Darvish’s ERA was 2.20 in 69.2 inning. In May, June, July and August, his ERA was 4.87 in 121.2 IP. So it looks like dealing with the Dallas heat was Darvish’s biggest hurdle last year. A leaguemate watching you at your 2013 draft, “Why are you reading the Farmer’s Almanac?” You, “Seeing if it’s going to be any cooler in Texas this year.” Al Gore enters your draft with a PowerPoint presentation, “As I was saying as consultant of The Beasts of the Southern Wild, there’s ice caps melting at such a rapid rate–” Everyone at your draft, “Noooooo! Not Al Gore!” 2013 Projections: 15-10/3.74/1.24/228
24. Yovani Gallardo – The great (and peaceful) strides made by YoGa in 2011 for his walk rate went poof…in the wind, which is also a song performed by the cover band, Gay Bob Dylan. “The answer my friend is blowing the…” Okay, I’m done. If YoGa regains his 2011 walk rate, he’ll be a top 15 starter. Luckily, due to his Ks, he won’t be worse than around the 24th ranked starter, so I ranked him here. Cool how that worked out, huh? 2013 Projections: 15-10/3.69/1.26/205
25. Kris Medlen – I tried to figure out how to get Medlen in the top 20 starters for longer than I can to admit (117 minutes). Then I looked at my projections for him (a high 7 K-rate and a 3-something ERA) and I couldn’t justify it. If you do skip the Weaver tier from the top 20, then you might get Medlen anyway. His K/BB is a thing of beauty. Really, he’s not that far from Jordan Zimmermann Ks and walks-wise, maybe even better. But the sample size on Medlen had me lower him. Remember, the last year he started games (2010) he had a 3.86 ERA, 1.21 WHIP as a starter. I love someone like Medlen off waivers. I really don’t want to pay top 20 price for him. So, for 2013, I might be Without Medlen. 2013 Projections: 13-8/3.44/1.18/161
26. Jake Peavy – He has a career 3.46 ERA and only once in his ten-year career has he had a year of 200+ innings and a 4+ ERA. That was back in 2006. Unfortunately, since 2002, he’s only had 4 seasons of 200+ innings. So, if he’s healthy, he’s going to be a solid starter. Within that “if” lies all of Peavy’s problems. Peavy is standing in a corn field in 2044 Kansas and suddenly that “if” appears with a hood over its head and gold bars taped to its back. It’s now up to Peavy what he’s going to do. 2013 Projections: 12-6/3.60/1.14/175
27. Johnny Cueto – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Lester. I call this tier, “Johnny Roy Jon isn’t just your hillbilly neighbor; it’s also this tier of SPs I don’t like.” In 2010, Cueto had a 3.64 ERA and a 4.09 xFIP. In 2011, a 2.31 ERA and a 3.90 xFIP. Last year, 2.78 ERA and a 3.65 xFIP. The first name that comes to mind is my 4th grade teacher, Ms. Blighkatori. But that’s the first name that comes to mind for everything. The 1st name that comes to mind related to Cueto is Matt Cain. They both are able to beat their xFIP, year in and year out. Cueto does it with ground balls; Cain with fly balls. Cueto also does it with a below average K-rate and a declining velocity on his fastball. Also, he’s in a severe hitters’ park. Maybe Cueto can continue to brave the storm, somehow walking between the raindrops. I’m not risking it. 2013 Projections: 15-10/3.47/1.22/154
28. Roy Halladay – All right, hotshot, you have to ask yourself how much are you willing to spend on a potential bounce back? I’m not willing to spend anything when it comes to a soon-to-be 36-year-old pitcher whose skills are clearly declining. His velocity was down, his walks were up, he didn’t stay healthy… All things being equal, he shouldn’t be worse than a 3.60 ERA, mid-7 K-rate pitcher. I don’t wanna crap on a plate and call it a Pu-Pu platter, so let’s be honest, that’s not so great. 2013 Projections: 13-9/3.64/1.15/182
29. Jon Lester – Kinda like with Halladay, Lester can bounce back. Why am I paying to find out? You in a 50-team, AL-Only league? You have to draft him? Momma Lester holding a staple gun to your head? Unlike Halladay, Lester’s peripherals are pointing to a casual bounce back. Nothing dramatic. His velocity was good; his luck was bad; his walk rate actually got better. Hey, I’ve nearly talked myself into drafting him… Nah. It’s just not worth it unless he falls in the draft because his 2012 4.82 ERA makes him too much of a value to pass up. 2013 Projections: 14-9/3.78/1.28/186
30. Jeff Samardzija – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Bailey. I call this tier, “These guys are my BFF (Best Fantasy Friends).” All of these pitchers may get a sleeper post if they haven’t already. I’m slightly crazy for all of them. Their projections are better than some guys above them. The reason why they are lower is a few fold. Onefold, these starters have more risk. Twofold, the guys above them are safer. Threefold, the first two folds were the same, why would there be a threefold? I already went over my Samardzija 2013 fantasy. I wrote it while wearing a pork pie hat while calling myself Heisenberg. 2013 Projections: 12-7/3.45/1.24/195
31. Jonathon Niese – Has anyone else noticed that after Jonathon Niese had his nose job, he also shortened his name to Jon? If he has a bris, he’s gonna start going by J. Niese. Last year, Niese had a 3.40 ERA and a 7.33 K-rate. In 2011, he had a 3.28 xFIP and a 7.89 K-rate, so last year’s ERA wasn’t out of nowhere. He doesn’t have overpowering stuff (90-ish MPH fastball), but he keeps the ball down (around the same as Cueto), and he’s in a solid ballpark. In the 1st half last year, he had a 3.74 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA, 1.11 WHIP after the break. His BABIP and K-rate was nearly identical between the two halfs. Walks were the difference. In May, his mechanics were off like the one effin’ day your car breaks down. His walk rate in May was 5.46, which led to a 6.07 ERA. Easily his worst month. Niese is going to be the Mets ace. He’s not going to strikeout 200, so he’s not in the top 20, but he will provide ratio help barring any unfortunate luck. Anyone that is anyone knows the new powder of choice is Molly and Niese is the new Molly. 2013 Projections: 13-8/3.39/1.14/164
32. Brandon Morrow – Here’s a recurring dream I have: Brandon Morrow is sitting on my fantasy team (I let my guys sit) and he has the pre-2012 Ks — the 10+ K-rate that we all loved — but he also has the 2012 walk rate — the under-3 walk rate that helped him to an under 3 ERA last year. Also in this dream, he throws 200 innings for the first time in his career and wins the Cy Young with 22 wins. Playing the part of Morrow in my dream is Richard Mulligan from Empty Nest. Up until a young Richard Mulligan playing Morrow, that all could happen. Not simply because Mulligan is dead, but this guy should be playing Morrow. In related news, we need to start selling Razzball solid gold shirts. 2013 Projections: 16-7/3.20/1.14/205
33. Homer Bailey – It feels like Bailey has been on the verge of greatest for the last ten years, but it’s only been the last 6 years. That alone makes him somewhat of a gamble. But now it’s looking like the Reds might have rushed him originally. He was a high K, low walk guy once upon a time in the minors. Then he was a low K, high walk guy in the majors for about five years. In 2011, he was on the verge with a solid K-rate and a solid walk rate. There was some thought he hadn’t put it all together, but he followed up 2011 with almost exactly the same peripherals, and now it’s just a matter if he can build on it. With all of this history, you’d think Bailey was on the wrong side of 30 years old. He’ll be 27 this year. It wouldn’t shock me to see him get 19 wins and a 3.50 ERA. Fo’ really. 2013 Projections: 16-9/3.57/1.20/188
34. Jarrod Parker – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Milone. I call this tier, “A bunch of zeroes, and zeroes aren’t a bad thing.” The tier name means I have some reservations about these guys, but I also like them, which leaves me at neutral or at zero. Zero is the new excitement. I blame the recession. If you’ve been reading for any length of time the Razz, the Rizzybizzy, the Razzputin, the RazzleBazzle, then you know I think the Verducci Effect is half confirmation bias and half cherry-picking. So, I’m not giving much credence to Parker’s large jump in innings from 2011 to 2012. I’d prefer the jump wasn’t there, but I also don’t think we should just ignore the pitcher because of it. Pitching is not a natural thing to do, and any of them could break down. Even after being limited last year, there’s a chance The Strasborg could break down. Somewhere, Ralph Wiggum’s wearing a Nationals hat and his heart just split in half. Parker had a rough stretch in July (5.34 ERA) and August (4.71 ERA). It might have been due to exhaustion, but his September was fine (2.31 ERA). His K-rate last year wasn’t anything special (6.95), but his K-rates in the minors were better. Now combine a jump in innings, an unspectacular K-rate then subtract a good pitchers’ park and a young pitcher that could get better and you’re at zero. Yay! 2013 Projections: 14-7/3.61/1.27/176
35. Ian Kennedy – In 2011, he was fourth in Cy Young voting. Then he regressed last year. As any scholar of Saberhagenmetrics can tell you, it was bound to happen. With neutral luck, he’s a 3.80 ERA guy. When he got lucky with long balls, he was a Cy Young candidate. When his long ball luck regressed, he turned into a 4 ERA pitcher. Looking deeper, it shows he stopped using his slider, reduced use of his curve and lost velocity on his fastball. Doesn’t it sound like he was injured? Not to answer, but to mull. You’re cute when you mull. C’mon, let me hug you– Ha, I just pickpocketed you! C’mon, man, pay attention. 2013 Projections: 14-11/3.81/1.20/191
36. Mike Minor – A big part of me thinks Minor is going to be better than Medlen this year. The Lily Tomlin part of me, to be exact. Last year, his K-rate was 7.28, but he’s shown the ability to push that above eight. His walks are always in check. Or procházky, if he kept his walks in Czech. To stick with the ambulatory theme, he needs to take a step forward this year to earn this ranking. Cutting his homers allowed wouldn’t hurt, getting lucky would be even better. 2013 Projections: 11-10/3.87/1.22/181
37. A.J. Burnett – He was basically the same guy last year as he’s always been. Hmm, that sounds like Carole King lyrics. I wonder if the A in A.J. stands for apricot. Probably. So, Apricot, had to deal with big-time offenses from the time he went to the Blue Jays until he was done with the Yankees. In the NL, Apricot’s a great pitcher (I could’ve done the math, but I got lazy). The reason why he’s in this tier is for some reason it always seems like he needs an attitude adjustment to get motivated. You’re named after one of the most important crops of ancient Persia, cheer up! 2013 Projections: 13-11/3.67/1.25/184
38. Tommy Milone – Milone’s ratio help, if nothing else. If Milone could nudge up his 6.49 K/9 from last year to seven-plus, he could be a huge value pick here. From The Files of the Obvious (FotO): going from 6.49 K/9 to 7+ K/9 isn’t that dramatic of an approval. Though, I think getting to a 7+ K-rate for him is a pipe dream, because his fastball maxes out at 88 MPH. The FotO also tells us major league hitters aren’t exactly intimidated by an 88 MPH fastball. He had the 7th slowest fastball. Some guys below him: Zito, Buehrle, Arroyo… And barely above him –> Jered Weaver. (And you wonder why I’m low on Weaver.) Milone gets by with pinpoint control, which he always had in the minors, too. Solid ratio man on the staff stuff, no bluff, Aubrey Huff. Sorry, got a little Seussian there. 2013 Projections: 9-10/3.58/1.26/147
39. Tim Lincecum – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Some are excited by these guys. Even some writers on this site. Not I (or is it me?).” Could Lincecum bounce back is the question all of you are pondering. Right after, where on earth did you put your pants. You forgot to wear them today. It’s okay, no one comes by your cubicle. Now back to the first question. He lost two miles on his fastball last year. That’s not an absolutely killer unless you actually owned him in fantasy last year. That guy shaking in the corner of the Subway station with the sign, “Will not own Lincecum for food.” Ask him what it was like last year owning him. So, better than is he going to bounce back, is he going to regain two miles on his fastball and not have to throw more sliders and curveballs to make up for it? Even if you correct for luck, he wasn’t exactly solid last year. Also, it wasn’t like he started off fine and then hide an injury in the 2nd half. He had a hideous 1st half and backed that up with a terrible 2nd half. Wouldn’t have Righetti and Bochy have put their heads together and formed one super-ginormous head and fixed Lincecum’s issues by July if they could’ve? I need about six starters per team and there’s about forty pitchers I like. I’m fine avoiding Lincecum. As a counterpoint, here’s a Lincecum sleeper post. And here is a graph of Lincecum’s fantasy value. 2013 Projections: 12-10/3.98/1.28/199
40. Phil Hughes – I kept looking at Hughes and thinking how I’ve never liked him before. I’m maturing. Now excuse me while I play Biz Markie’s Pickin Boogers and giggle. “Just last night when Kane was gettin’ ready, I slipped a little green one inside his spaghetti…” Hehe… Maybe I liked Hughes when he first was called up. I don’t remember because it was a long time ago and like I said I’m maturing. Hughes reminds me of Homer Bailey. Hughes also came up with a lot of hype. He was going to be the next big thing. He was ranked the Yankees number one prospect, and the number two prospect for all of baseball in 2007. Well, that was like a decade ago. Early on, he showed glimmers of his big swinging dizznick ways. He took a no-hitter into the 7th inning in his 2nd major league start before leaving with a pulled hamstring. Then things unraveled for about four years. Last year, he lowered his walk rate to 2.16 and raised his K-rate to 7.76 while finally making 30+ starts. Like Bailey, he’s only going to be 27 years old this year and is on the verge of going from “Hey, whatever happened to that guy, Hillman Phools?” “You mean, Phil Hughes?” “Yeah, him.” to top 30 starter value. If you’re drafting for 2012, don’t draft Hughes. If you’re drafting for 2013, I’d grab him. UPDATE: He got a Viagra stuck in his back and now it’s bulging. I’d be very careful about drafting him. See, I’m not that mature after all. 2013 Projections: 13-10/3.89/1.22/164
