All the final 2012 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2013 (caps for those still wearing their Frankenweenie 3-D glasses). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. But not entirely. To recapitulate, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. In the general sense of things, I’m much better at ranking and projecting pitchers. I’m not entirely sure why this is. I’m just being real with you. Am I complete crap at hitters? Nah, but pitchers just seem to stick more to the program. If someone’s supposed to strike out 200, they usually come close. If someone is supposed have a 2 walk rate and a 7 K-rate, they don’t hit only three homers in the first two and a half months, then hit 22 in the 2nd half. Damn you, Zimmerman! Though, Latos did come close. I don’t say that I projected pitching better this year arrogantly, Rudy’s projections tests bears it out. Or is that bares it out? Rudy, you exhibitionist! That test will be coming on Thursday. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
Psyche! Before we get into the top 20 starters for last year, just wanted to quickly say our fantasy basketball leagues are filling up. Go there; sign up. Anyway II, the top 20 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball:
1. R.A. Dickey – Speaking of being able to predict pitchers, Dickey was nowhere on my GPS. In fact, when I put R.A. Dickey into my GPS, it said, “I’m not going to play this game, Grey. You are a Dickey, not me.” I will say that at no point did I tell you to sell him high, unlike the ESPN Hindsighter. Once Dickey was going hard, I just put another quarter into the machine, let the curtain open, sat back and watched. Preseason Rank #77, 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.27/130, Final Numbers: 20-6/2.73/1.05/230
2. Justin Verlander – Had exactly the type of season I expected him to, and will again next year but I still won’t go near him. For those wondering why, I point to my 57 out of a possible 60 pitching points in a 12 team league where I had four starters with over 100 IP (Gio, Bumgarner, Anibal and Vogelsong) and three pitchers over 50 IP (Latos, Medlen and Lynn), two closers over 50 IP (Valverde and Wilhelmsen) and about 30 other pitchers with at least 5 innings. I dropped Peavy before one start and Latos prior to his turn around and still had pitching to spare. As I’ve said 5,000 times before, in 12 team leagues and shallower, there’s more than enough pitching to go around. And that’s me paraphrasing me for the 5,001st time! Preseason Rank #4, 2012 Projections: 18-7/2.75/1.08/240, Final Numbers: 17-8/2.64/1.06/239
3. David Price – For a little insight into projecting pitchers, WHIP and Ks should be the most predictable. If the pitcher’s BABIP is unlucky, then his WHIP can go up and it might cost him some Ks, but they’re a bit more reliable than ERA, and a lot more reliable than Wins. Win-loss record is nonsense to predict. You’re basically expecting an ace to get between 15 and 20 wins on a good team, and who the hell knows which teams will be good? Again, just telling you as it is. Price’s FIP was 3.05; he got a tad lucky. In the end, he was still better than I expected, and I expected him to be great. Preseason Rank #12, 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.20/1.18/200, Final Numbers: 20-5/2.56/1.10/205
4. Clayton Kershaw – My preseason projections for him are the closest projections to final stats you’re gonna find anywhere for Kershaw. Maybe I’ll write a Grey’s Sports Almanac. Preseason Rank #2, 2012 Projections: 17-7/2.55/1.05/230, Final Numbers: 14-9/2.53/1.02/229
5. Gio Gonzalez – Me pushing everyone and their mother’s uncle into Gio in the preseason is owned completely to my raging boner for strikeouts. Here’s what I said in December of last year, “How about the Nats looking like they’re gonna be contenders? Hopefully they get some new announcers so it’s not as wretched watching them. Get back Dibble so he can call into question a guy headed for Tommy John surgery! I love that kind of manic enthusiasm. Anyway, Gonzalez wasn’t nearly the pitcher his 3.12 ERA showed last year, but he has far exceeded his xFIP the last two years while posting solid K numbers. I’m willing to get on the Gio aeroplane in twelve past twenty. A guy that is moving to the NL with a 8.78 K-rate is plenty all right, even with the wonky walks.” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #17, 2012 Projections: 15-8/3.50/1.28/200, Final Numbers: 21-8/2.89/1.13/207
6. Matt Cain – Fool me once with your FIP, shame on you. Fool me twice with your FIP, I’m a bit slow on the uptake. Fool me three times with your FIP, not happening Cain. Finally, after years of me avoiding Cain because of his ERA to FIP difference, I decided to get in on him this year. And he did it again (2.79 ERA, 3.40 FIP, 3.82 xFIP), but he did it again for the good of the people this time. Preseason Rank #18, 2012 Projections: 14-10/3.10/1.10/180, Final Numbers: 16-5/2.79/1.04/193
7. Cole Hamels – Cliff Lee won 6 games (that’s so ridunkulous), while Roy Halladay is in arbitration trying to get 2012 removed from his stats, yet Hamels kept on trucking when he wasn’t teaching rooks lessons. Hamels was able to not only add a strikeout to his rate from 2011, but he also kept his walks in check. Right now, he looks like the best thing the Phils have going for them, so of course the Phils will lose him this offseason. Preseason Rank #9, 2012 Projections: 15-10/2.95/1.10/200, Final Numbers: 17-6/3.05/1.12/216
8. Jered Weaver – He was one of the luckiest pitchers last year. Not only did his ERA outperform his xFIP by a silly amount (2.81 to 4.18), but his Ks fell for the 2nd year in a row. His K-rate was right there in the high 6’s with other stalwarts like Justin Masterson, Hochevar, Maholm and Ervin Santana. If you owned Weaver as your ace last year, someone upstairs is looking out for you. Maybe Sherman Hemsley. I bet he’s got some pull. Preseason Rank #15, 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.35/1.12/200, Final Numbers: 20-5/2.81/1.02/142
9. Johnny Cueto – I call this tier, pitchers who stepped in crap. The best kind of crap, that is. The damn, son, you got lucky there-type crap. Cueto seems to be the new Matt Cain outperforming his peripherals every year. Cain and Cueto also sounds like a WWE tag team with the finishing move, The FIP Off. Preseason Rank #40, 2012 Projections: 11-6/3.80/1.25/130, Final Numbers: 19-9/2.78/1.17/170
10. Chris Sale – To go all opposite world Mark McGwire on you, “But I’m not here to talk about next year.” Yet, I have to say the White Sox done messed up putting so many innings on Sale’s arm. Sure, I was the one that kept telling you to get rid of him because he was going to get shut down, but how was I supposed to know the White Sox would go all Dusty Baker on him? Preseason Rank #82, 2012 Projections: 8-8/3.50/1.24/130, Final Numbers: 17-8/3.05/1.14/192
11. Felix Hernandez – He struggled vs. the Angels this year (posting a 6.25 ERA; 2.56 ERA vs. everyone else). F-Her just couldn’t go near Pujols when it came to the Big A. *double entendre grand prize balloons falling in my office* What did I win? What did I win? *a piñata-shaped toilet lowers* Ooh, now it’s a potty! Preseason Rank #6, 2012 Projections: 15-12/2.80/1.14/220, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.06/1.14/223
12. Madison Bumgarner – Mad-Bum glad you showed up, we’re having a potty! Okay, I’m done. Preseason Rank #10, 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/200, Final Numbers: 16-11/3.37/1.11/191
13. James Shields – He definitely came with the strikeouts this year, which is nice. He provided a nice enough ERA and WHIP too. But what’s bothering me is he’s ranked 13th overall and his numbers weren’t that amazing. Hey, guys, if we’re not going to have a steroid-fueled offense in the major leagues, you think we could have solid pitching? Please. In fairness, solid pitching (though not great) goes on for days. Preseason Rank #30, 2012 Projections: 13-11/3.70/1.25/190, Final Numbers: 15-10/3.52/1.17/223
14. Kyle Lohse – First guy to come completely out of nowhere in the rankings. Sure, Sale was ranked much lower than he ended up, but I liked Sale as a late round flyer and knew he had potential. Lohse? Blech. I just vomited in Dave Duncan’s mouth. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-3/2.86/1.09/143
15. CC Sabathia – Eh, you know CC, but on a related note, I was waiting for him to face Prince Fielder in the postseason to see if everyone in the back of the stadium had to lean back to stop them from tilting over the stadium. Preseason Rank #7, 2012 Projections: 20-7/3.10/1.20/210, Final Numbers: 15-6/3.38/1.14/197
16. Stephen Strasburg – Not sure how much Strasburg’s innings cap hurt the Nats’ playoff chances, but I’ll tell you this, I’m sure glad they did it for next year’s fantasy baseball season. (I’m sure they did it for the same reason too.) Can you say a 2013 with 20 wins, 250 Ks and a sub-3 ERA? If you can’t say that, you might need a speech therapist. Preseason Rank #20, 2012 Projections: 12-5/2.90/1.10/165 in 160 innings, Final Numbers: 15-6/3.16/1.15/197 in 159 1/3 IP
17. Max Scherzer – When someone has a 3.74 ERA and they’re ranked in the top twenty, they were doing something else right. Well, hello, beautiful, this are some lovely Ks you got there. Bee tee dubya, he had 231 Ks in 187 2/3 innings. Give him 220 innings and you have 270 Ks. I typed the previous sentence without my hands while wearing no pants. Preseason Rank #33, 2012 Projections: 14-8/3.70/1.30/195, Final Numbers: 16-7/3.74/1.27/231
18. Zack Greinke – Bit of an all-over-map season for Greinke last year. Not good in April, July and August, better in the NL, great at home in the NL, just okay at home in the AL, terrible in day games, solid in night games, exactly .249 vs. lefties and righties and amazing in June and September. In other words, draw your own conclusions. Preseason Rank #8, 2012 Projections: 15-8/2.90/1.18/220, Final Numbers: 15-5/3.48/1.20/200
19. Hiroki Kuroda – Here’s the 2nd pitcher after Lohse to come out of nowhere. Sure, everyone’s heard of Kuroda, but to think he’d do exactly what he did in Yankee Stadium in the AL East that he was doing in Dodger Stadium in the NL West is remarkable. Remarkurodable even. Preseason Rank #72, 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.90/1.24/150, Final Numbers: 16-11/3.32/1.17/167
20. Jake Peavy – I figured he still had some gas in the tank, but la de da on this comeback season. His strikeouts were a bit off from where they used to be in his prime (9+ K-rate vs. 7.97) and he had a bit of luck…Well, he had a lot of luck if you consider he stayed healthy. Will be fun to see him get a ton of money in the free agent market from the Red Sox and then get hurt in April. It’s The Curse of Bobby Valentine! Preseason Rank #65, 2012 Projections: 10-8/3.75/1.21/130, Final Numbers: 11-12/3.37/1.10/194
