Points League: Fletch(er)

Oh, yes. Very good. I’ll have a Bloody Mary, a steak sandwich and a…steak sandwich. I don’t know about you, but for me, that movie never gets old. I do love me some 80s Chevy Chase. Speaking of 80s movies, have any of your seen Coming To America 2? If you haven’t, don’t. I was greatly disappointed. After watching it I felt like the guy that has drafted Byron Buxton the last five years. Why did Eddie Murphy have to stop making funny movies?! I feel like it was right around The Nutty Professor that he jumped the proverbial shark. But the 90’s and 2000’s are a bit hazy to me, so I could be off by a few movies. He needs to start putting bananas in peoples tailpipes again!

First things first. Thanks for all of the positive feedback many of you have given me about the spreadsheet. I really do appreciate the kind words. It almost makes all the hard work worth it.

One of my favorite uses of the spreadsheet is to help identify a players’ draft day value. This is done using two metrics:

• Average Draft Position (ADP)
• League specific ranking

It’s pretty difficult to find reliable sources for head-to-head points league ADP. The one I have been using is from CBS. As for league specific ranking, that is determined by the spreadsheet. Once you plug in your league’s scoring system, the spreadsheet calculates position adjusted rankings specific to your league. This value can be found in the column labeled “Rank” on the “Rankings” tab. This value represents the position a player should be drafted if you were drafting players solely based on a players’ value relative to your league.

Unfortunately ADP is always going to come into play. That’s just the way it is. Especially in points leagues where there are limited resources/rankings. And most of the rankings you do find are generic. As I have stated time after time, all points league are not created equal. Scoring systems vary from league to league and they can differ greatly. Truth be told, most points league players have no idea when to draft most players. The first round is fairly obvious, but after that I think many are mislead by inaccurate advice or are swayed by roto rankings.

Disappointingly, once it is decided by the masses that a certain player is a top twenty pick, everyone is going to pick him in the top twenty. Remember, it only takes one owner in a league to draft a player. So even if eleven of twelve teams agree that Aaron Judge has 8th round value, there is likely one person that will be willing to take him in the 4th. That helps set his ADP in the 4th round. Once that happens he is destined to be a 4th rounder everywhere because everyone looks at ADP to help determine when to pick a player. And when they see Judge’s 4th round ADP, someone in the league that wants him will take him in the 4th. It’s kinda crazy how it’s possible for less than ten percent of the points league population to set the market value for a player.

So ADP says when you will need to draft a player before someone else does and the spreadsheet ranks tells you should draft him if everyone in your league had the same spreadsheet. Fortunately for you most of your league will not have the spreadsheet. The column labeled “Draft Score” on the “Rankings” tab is a comparison between ADP and Rank. The higher the draft score, the bigger the bargain you are getting by drafting the player at or around his ADP. That means that he is ranked higher than his ADP based on your league settings. A player with a low (negative) draft score is a player you should avoid as you are not getting good value out of said player, and the likelihood of him falling enough rounds is slim to none.

Here’s how I handle ADP vs. Rank. Let’s used one of the biggest draft day bargains on the sheet. David Fletcher. His ADP is about 205 which puts him in the about the 17th round of a 12-team league. His rank however is 58. That means that he has approximately 5th round value. That’s quite the difference. Now does that mean you should run out on draft day and take him in the 5th round. Heck no. I wouldn’t take him in the 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th or even 12th round. But why not you might ask considering the spreadsheet says he’s 5th round material. The answer is simply because I don’t have to. Even if he has 5th round value, why draft him before we need to? And when do we need to? About the 17th round. If it were me, I’d be targeting him around the 14th or 15th round to make sure I got him. Let’s say you took him in the 14th round. Your league mates might call that a reach, but in reality you’ve gotten quite the bargain. Fletcher is the 7th ranked 2B, ahead of Cavan Biggio, and he has SS eligibility to boot. He’s also going to be batting leadoff for the Angels, hitting in front of Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon. I’ll leave the rest up to you.

Every year Carlos Santana seems to make this list. Every year he’s on my team. His ADP is 180 and his rank is 66. I’d target him in the rounds 12-13.

Can I get a little Didi Gregorius this season? I hope so. His ADP is about 192 and his rank is 87. I’ll be eyeing him about round 14. I’ll have to coordinate with my Fletcher pick.

Here are a few more value picks I see for this draft season.

As you can probably see I have a target round of a few rounds (usually 2 or 3) before a players ADP. This helps give me a better chance of getting said player before someone else drafts him and also locks in a solid return on the pick. Even if you have to “reach” an extra round to get the player, you are still getting value as long as you draft him after his rank. You can also wait an extra round, but once you get close to a player’s ADP, there is a greater risk of someone else drafting him.

Here are a few players I will not be drafting this year.

That’s all I’ve got for now. Hope this helps.

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