Welcome champs and chaps! For the first time since 2021, I’m switching gears and writing about something other than pitchers.
How can that be, EWB, you say while rhyming into your Tutti-Frutti Frappucino Blast. I thought you were the Razzball Wiffernaut? It’s OK. Two things can be true at the same time. At least that’s what the current political discourse tells me.
At some nebulous point in the past, I held the esteemed position of “Second or Third Bestest Sports Player of the Razzers” when combining overall standings from RazzSlam, RazzBowl, and RazzJam. Who was first best? Dalton Del Don of Yahoo. Of course it’s Triple-D. ENYWHEY. I assume my utter dominance of the Razz better ball series of sports is why the confirmed Touts never asked me to be in their fancy leagues. That’s OK. They get to win their leagues and I get more time to meditate in the woods!
How did I become so adequate at imaginary sports ball management? Step 1 was knowing that I could draft pitchers later. Step 2 was knowing which bats to draft.
That Step 2 part? I’ve never really talked about that on Razzball in the past few years. I wanted to talk about it more, so I cut a deal with the executives that allowed new blood to come into the Top 100 Starters series (that’s Marmos — go check out his article today!) while I got to write about some of the strategies that have helped me to fantasy adequacy over the past few years.
Let’s see if I can save your draft by talking about some resoundingly similar hitters!
ADP Awakenings
How many of you have ever set an Amazon price alert? Or a Google Flight price alert? You know you want something, but you just want the price to be a bit better? Myself, I saved 30% on a trip to Japan in March by waiting two months for lower fares. Same flight, same itinerary, same seat, same airports — all I had to do was set a fare alert to tell me when the price dropped. 30% worth of savings later, I can buy that much more chu hai and curry to blast away the stresses of the corporate world.
What if you could save 30% or more on your fantasy baseball team cost? What if you went into the draft knowing that even if you don’t get a Top 5 pick, you could walk away with a great value and still build the team of your dreams? Clean up that drool off your Gorilla Glass (it is drool, isn’t it?), and let’s make a table.
Look at these guys and tell me that they deserve to be drafted 100 picks apart:
| ADP | Name | Pos | Team | PA | HR | R | RBI | SB | BB% | K% | xwOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Corbin Carroll | OF | ARI | 645 | 25 | 116 | 76 | 54 | 8.80% | 19.40% | 0.346 | 133 |
| 23 | Ozzie Albies | 2B | ATL | 660 | 33 | 96 | 109 | 13 | 7.00% | 16.20% | 0.342 | 124 |
| 29 | Francisco Lindor | SS | NYM | 687 | 31 | 108 | 98 | 31 | 9.60% | 19.90% | 0.345 | 121 |
| 31 | Gunnar Henderson | SS/3B | BAL | 622 | 28 | 100 | 82 | 10 | 9.00% | 25.60% | 0.345 | 123 |
| 78 | Christian Walker | 1B | ARI | 661 | 33 | 86 | 103 | 11 | 9.40% | 19.20% | 0.342 | 120 |
| 102 | Ketel Marte | 2B | ARI | 650 | 25 | 94 | 82 | 8 | 10.90% | 16.80% | 0.342 | 127 |
ADP from FantasyPros on 2/11/24. POS from ESPN/Yahoo via Razzball player pages. Data from Fangraphs.
Let’s pick on our old friend CC. No, not Sabathia! How do we feel about the Hopeium on Corbin Carroll? 6th overall in ADP? Grey has him as 4th overall for 2024 fantasy baseball, with hopes of 2nd overall. Hot ding dong, we have ourselves a controversy!
Carroll’s always had a nice hitting profile, but he had almost no experience in the high minors. He had more homers and steals last year than he basically had in his entire minor league career combined. From a data standpoint, that’s tough to declare “repeatable!” with any level of certainty. His barrel rate was a paltry 7.6% and his hard hit rate of 33% ranked 80th in the league, just ahead of Jurickson Profar and table-mate Christian Walker. Except Walker is going nearly 10 rounds later in most drafts.
It’s that speed, you shout. Gimme 70 steals! OK, Greedy Grinch. Hang on to your stocking cap.
Of course, we can all get excited about Carroll being Ronald Acuna-like. But Acuna’s numbers? Double if not triple the barrel rate, and 50-75% higher hard hit rate…and he’s done it for years. The key to stealing bases is…getting on base. Carroll’s had one good year at doing that. But, does that mean we’re drafting him above literally everybody else?
Carroll’s going to be a fine player and I’m not sounding the alarm to jump ship on Carroll. He’s got an easy top 10 upside.
But what if you could get really similar stats — maybe even the bell curve of performance outcomes — at 1/3 the cost? Let’s talk about the astounding value of Carroll-like batters on the board that come later in the draft.
Using Sale Alerts
So you want your target acquisition for the cheapest price, right? If you’re like me and live in the Bold North, you can even get that target acquisition from Target, the retail store. Myself, I just went to Target to buy new pants for the first time in three years. Congratulate me for leaving the house!
But you — you’re still in the house, in the same ol’ pants, ready to draft. Maybe you got the 12th overall pick in your home league. Corbin Carroll went 10 picks ago because y’all read Razzball and they saw Grey give Double-C the Acuna Hopeium Dope. You’re already crying into your orange mojito while scrolling frantically through Google’s AI results of “How to save my awful fantasy team.”
Don’t consult the Bard! Consult your dear friends at Razzball, who are definitely not AI bots and would never, ever, ever use the wrong statistical analysis.
Using the table above [waits for you to scroll up, then down], you know there’s some sweet infield value coming later in the draft. You use that info to inform your first round draft choices. You didn’t get Carroll. OK. Look at all these guys who have — from a statistical standpoint — a super-similar hitting profile.
Myself, I like the Francisco Lindor profile: steals, HR, R, RBI, some average. 5-tools indeed! What I wouldn’t do to get in his garage.
OK, so I’ve got a SS target who goes around the mid-third round. If I miss on Lindor, Gunnar Henderson looks pretty good, so I’ll fall back there.
Using that strategy — of who I’m targeting later in the draft — here’s where my thought process goes for the front of the draft.
Process of Elimination
If I have a shortstop target in the third-ish round, then I don’t need a shortstop in the first round (in a standard league). See ya later, Treat Urner! I also know that in 12-team leagues, I really don’t need a top starting pitcher. To heck with you, Corbin Burnes! At my hypothetical 12-spot (and don’t forget the 13-spot turn in a standard league), ADP gives me the following options: Fernando Tatis Jr., Shohei Ohtani, Jose Ramirez, Yordan Alvarez, and Matt Olson.
Think quick — who do you take? There’s no right or wrong answer. But keep in mind — your goal is to add either Lindor or Henderson later.
Myself? I’m worried about Ohtani’s elbow healing. Bryce Harper sure didn’t recover by opening day after his Tommy John surgery; in fact, he was pretty pedestrian until August. I think Ohtani’s recovery schedule is a bit optimistic right now, especially for a guy going 10th overall. So, I exclude Ohtani. Tatis has upside, and is a good pick for best ball teams, but maybe a less certain pick for a conservative risk team. Yordong is a solid hitter, but his upside is pretty blah, and he’s like a statue on the basepaths. JoRam has been declining in power every year, and can anybody name another player on the Guardians? JoRam could hit 50 homers and have 80 RBIs on that team.
Myself? I’ve got a pretty high risk tolerance, so I’m going Matt Olson and FTJ at 12/13. I’ve got my 1B and OF covered, and I’m thinking ahead optimistically that I can get one of my targets at the 3/4 turn.
A couple of orange mojitos later and it’s the third round. Slow down, buddy! There’s probably a 20% chance that Lindor is still there, and a 60% chance that Henderson is still on the board. I hear you laughing at those odds. You wouldn’t believe the number of leagues I’ve been in where the reliever run starts in the third round, or people lose their minds over starters — grabbing pocket aces, or even three aces to start. Yeesh. Just wait until you get in an industry league and you see Touts taking pocket aces 1/2 and then catcher in the third round.
ENYWHEY. Back to my imaginary team. Part of my lean towards Tatis in the first round is that I’m probably not getting Lindor in the third round, so I need some sort of speed. If the room does let Lindor slide to the end of the third, then I’m snagging him and running all the way to the championship.
But in the more likely event of a Gunnar Henderson landing at the 3/4 turn, that starts me with:
- Fernando Tatis Jr., who Grey ranks as his 7th overall player.
- Matt Olson, who Grey ranks as the third best 1B in a shallow 1B pool.
- Gunnar Henderson, who has power, SS/3B flexibility, and can sneak some SB.
- 4th round pick — will I go wild with Elly de la Cruz? I’ve certainly got the risk tolerance with this team. Do I grab a starter? Pablo Lopez has a 50% chance of being there at this ADP, and I’d be sitting pretty with three mashers and a top starter. In the event of Lindor being there — I probably double tap Lindor/Henderson and worry about pitchers later. I, for one, would be just fine with Kodai Senga or Logan Gilbert as my top SP.
And if things go south and I don’t get Henderson, then that’s fine. Ketel Marte will be there 70 picks later. Who at Razzball hasn’t ridden the Ketel Marte train before? I mean, I could start with Bobbie Witt Jr., Ozzie Albies, Francisco Lindor, Gunnar Henderson and still be interested in Ketel Marte at his current ADP.
Hell, I could re-write this entire article from the POV of targeting Ketel Marte at pick 100, with my start being focused on Yordan Alvarez / Shohei Ohtani…but maybe that’s best left for the alternate universe.
Often, I get the question, “Who should I draft first.” In my opinion, your early draft should be informed by who you’re targeting later in the draft. ADP is not actual value — it’s just the price of a grouping of stats. If you can see players like top players, but for much cheaper, then that sets the tone of your draft. None of this is to say, “Don’t draft Corbin Carroll.” I like the guy and want to watch him everyday. But remember the Bo Bichette Hopeium? Carroll has the same risks (albeit with better plate control and speed). Plus, in 50% or more of your drafts, you’re drafting too late to get Carroll anyway. Now’s the time to plan — how can you get the same product for a cheaper price?
Who are you targeting later in the drafts? Drop me a line in the comments and let me know your secrets! I won’t tell!
