In 1847 in Self-Reliance, Ralph Waldo Emerson said “consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds”. He actually said more than that, but I have taken just those words. Did I just start out my fantasy baseball post with a partial Emerson quote about goblins?! For some reason I apparently have. In one of my preseason rants, I said something about consistency being key. I’d much rather have a hitter that scores about the same number of points each week, than one that is hit or miss. For example, over a five week span, I’d rather have my hitter get 20 points a week than have him score 5 the first week, 45 the second week, 5 week three, 5 week four and 40 in the fifth week. While the two 40-point weeks are awesome, the 5-point weeks are awful. That might now have been the best example, but I believe it sufficient enough to get my point across.
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OPS Leagues: The Great White Sano
August 21, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Overrated, OPS Leagues | 6 Commentsby: Elliot
Tehol was enjoying Shark Week while Miguel Sano was bashing mammoth home runs a while back. Appropriately, he gave the Dominican-born Sano the fantastic nickname, “Great White.” I’ve got to say, I have been inspired by this since, and I’m determined to make it stick. I will dedicate my life to getting this nickname uttered by a nationally televised broadcast team. Okay, nicknames aside now, let’s talk about Mr. Sano. Aaron Gleeman, a Rotoworld Senior Editor and Minnesotan, has been posting an onslaught of wonderful OPS statporn related to Sano. Here’s a sampling…
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DraftKings: Catching Pollock with Holmbergers
August 21, 2015 | DraftKings | 8 Commentsby: MattTruss
I also considered “Yas Many More Holmbergers Please” but the title isn’t really what’s important here. What’s important is how awful David Holmberg is and how happy I am to load up on some Diamondbacks this evening, especially AJ Pollock. First, let’s touch on the dumpster fire that is David Holmberg. Well, he has a 5.95 ERA for starters. That could be a small sample size, though, as he’s only pitched in 4 games and is fresh off a 2 IP, 7 ER outing at the Dodgers. So, before that trainwreck was a 3.06 ERA. Not too shabby you say. Well, his FIP and xFIP tell a different story, they are 7.33 and 5.81 respectively and even before the 7 ER outing they were each sitting around a 4.90. We can even go back and take a look at last season’s 30 IP and see the 7.60 FIP and 5.86 xFIP. Those numbers are eerily similar to this year’s numbers through 19.2 IP. Holmberg has spread the love quite nicely with righties and lefties as each has a wOBA over .350, with righties earning a slight bump (.390) which is why we are focusing our attack there. In addition to all of this, all of Holmberg’s pitches have a negative value and his fastball has been especially bad this season. Guess who the second best fastball hitter (behind Goldy who is simply a beast vs. everyone and every pitch type) on the Diamondbacks is this year? AJ Pollock, come on that one was easy! Pollock is enjoying a very nice breakout season. One of the many great things about Pollock this season is it doesn’t matter who he’s facing, he’s raking. The trouble in DFS sometimes can be when you identify that mint matchup vs. a certain handed pitcher, only to have that pitcher pulled after 3 IP and 6 ER and you mint matchup goes out the window as your play is pulled for a pinch hitter. No fear with Pollock, he’s an equal opportunity masher. Here are Pollock’s slash lines plus wOBA vs. first righties: .309/.365/.471/.361 and then lefties: .316/.368/.490/.372. Pretty remarkable right? All this is to say Pollock is a stud and Holmberg is a dud, so fireworks should be in the air at Great American Ballpark tonight.
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Rangers Told To Finish All Of Their Alfredo
August 21, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 193 Commentsby: Sky
You’d think with a lineup featuring Prince Fielder, the Alfredo would go down fast and leave a mess for someone to clean up. I mean, I know Fielder is a vegetarian so maybe there were too many meatballs? How else can you explain it? It wasn’t Sunday so ‘Any Given Sunday’ need not apply and Any Given Thursday just opens the door for all the days of the week to claim coincidence as its catch phrase. We can’t have these things, there must be a reason! Yeah, there are no reasons. To the antithesis of all baseball nerd reasoning, Alfredo Simon pitched a complete game yesterday against a reasonably good Texas Rangers offense, only giving up one hit and two walks in the process while K’ing five in the shut out. Alfredo was giving up 1.45 HR/9 to go with a .383 wOBA to lefties on the year going into last night and faced a team that had five reasonably good lefty bats in their lineup. Let’s just stuff this one away in Gray’s Sports Almanac and move on with our lives without giving it a second thought, shall we? Yes, let’s. So without further ado, the guy who isn’t Grey will lead you through the rest of what he saw from yesterday for 2015 Fantasy Baseball…
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Bear or Bull: The Late Blooming Cog(hlan)
August 20, 2015 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 16 Commentsby: Big Magoo
Late bloomers can be found pretty much anywhere you look. Do you remember that Jose Altuve-like kid in junior high who was at least six inches shorter than the next tallest boy in the class? I know I do. That kid is 6’5″ now. (Apologies to the real Altuve who might never experience the thrill of riding a roller coaster). If you’re a film buff, you’re probably aware that Harrison Ford was toiling away in obscurity until his mid-30s when Star Wars hit it big, and Sandra Bullock followed a similar career path with Demolition Man and Speed. In the sports world, there are several post-hype and un-hyped players who break out each year, such as Josh Donaldson, JD Martinez, and Charlie Blackmon over the last few years. Is Chris Coghlan one of those players this season?
Let’s take a look at Coghlan’s career statistics to see how he’s evolved offensively over the years:
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Bullpen Report, Week 20: Raising The Jolly Roger In Relief
August 20, 2015 | Closers, Middle Relievers | 15 Commentsby: Smokey
When your team is battling for a playoff spot, what’s the most important thing? Winning. Winning out of the bullpen is a thing that is not predictable, I get it, but when your team goes 7-0 from the bullpen in the last 14 games, that is just a damn near beautiful thing if you love bullpens as much as I… I mean, you may not, but that’s cool (maybe). You have your love interests… invested in beanie babies or all your Gregg Jefferies’ rookie cards that your whole childhood fortune is invested in… Just saying, you should probably move out of your mom’s basement or branch out from the family business for a bit. As a whole, the Pirates are a top-3 club for bullpen ERA, and are led by the king of Holds currently: Tony Watson. Him and his merry men of “set-uphood” have completely just wrecked shop out of the pen lately, their ERA is 1.21 and they have allowed just a measly 34 hits in 52 innings. Take it from me, that is getting the job done. The addition of Joakim Soria has lengthened their bullpen to the point where Jared Hughes, Joe Blanton, and Arquimedes Caminero are in prime win plucking spots. Yeah, I just used Joe Blanton in a fantasy write-up, and no it’s not 2000-never. So stick around as I wax symbolic about other bullpen situations arising as we stream towards the fantasy baseball playoffs.
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Guys, each Thursday, I write to help you win money on DraftKings. That’s the main objective. But I would be remiss to not mention that almost every Thursday, I complain that the slate is way too small. Trust me, many Thursdays I don’t play just because it’s so bad.
But not this week.
Twenty weeks into the season, we finally have a big slate on a Thursday. We are looking at 11 games, including the Nationals at Coors Field, but sadly the Blue Jays are off.
Let’s get straight to the cash, homie.
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Please, blog, may I have some more?Guess who’s back? Back again! No, that’s not The Greek God of Walks, Kevin Youkilis, sufferer of chronic back pain, singing. Besides, it’s “who’s back,” not “whose back.” We’re not trying to identify a back! Byron Buxton‘s back, baby, yeah. With every positive reaction, there’s an equal opposite negative reaction, or so said Einstein when he was fiddling with refrigerator magnets. And the negative reaction to Buxton coming back is Aaron Hicks hit the DL. Too bad, so sad. Buxton didn’t do much in his first stint in the majors, but he could be easily as good as Schwarber, Sano or any other rookie nookie that’s got your cookie all melty. I would grab Buxton in every league. I’m excited. Uppercase yay! Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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We Rebuilt This City On Rock And Roll
August 19, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Keeper Leagues | 91 Commentsby: Mike
It happens every year. Bath time is disrupted by the ringing of my flip phone. Thinking it’s Subway getting back to me about my sandwich artist application, I rush out of the tub to answer. Alas, it’s just a college buddy wanting me to fill an abandoned team in his dynasty league. Now there’s water all over the floor. These teams are almost always terrible. It’s like buying a car and finding out there’s no engine and the seat cushions smell like homicide. Now what? We rebuild it baby! Whether the team’s suckiness is your own doing or the work of a deadbeat previous owner, rebuilding can be painful. If the team is just completely barren or is full of bloated contracts, there are players you can target now to speed up the process and get things moving in the right direction.
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Drew Smyly‘s first start in over three months didn’t exactly go as planned. The left-hander opted for the rehab route over season ending surgery on his torn left labrum, and managed to make it back in time to contribute. Despite successfully coming back, Smyly’s outing on Sunday didn’t have the best results. He tossed four innings, surrendering five runs — including a pair of solo shots — on seven hits and two walks. There was good news as Smyly managed to sit down four Rangers on strikes and induced 11 swinging strikes on 95 pitches.
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One of the statistics that a lot of daily fantasy players look at is Weighted On-Base Average, or wOBA for short. wOBA attempts to credit extra base hits and find the statistical balance between the values of all the possible ways to get on base. This number attempts to show the true value of a hitter, or pitcher, in its form.
Daily fantasy players look at wOBA but more specifically they look at what the wOBA is in terms of the handedness of the pitcher they are facing. Most players, as we know, will do better against the opposite handedness of pitcher. Examples are that Lefties hit Righties better and vice versa.
So to see who might have the best advantages for a given night, one would look at the combination of how the SP fares against the different handedness of pitchers and how the hitters fare against those pitchers.
For example, Wednesday’s games have a couple of LHP going and some of these guys can really hammer left-handed pitching. Goldschmidt, for example, will go against J.A. Happ, who is left-handed and is okay overall against right-handed hitters. Goldy, though, has a massive .479 wOBA against lefties. For context, Josh Donaldson, another known lefty hammer, has a .439 wOBA against lefties and the league average for wOBA overall is around .315.
So, even though Goldy’s price tag is high, you might want to make sure you find a way to get him in the lineup against lefties. The splits say so.
The same goes for SP. Keuchel gets the Rays who are tough on the road against LHP but Dallas has a remarkable .249 wOBA at home this season. LHP Adam Morgan, who we will call out a couple of times below, has a .358 wOBA against righties. For comparison, Keuchel, also left-handed, has a more reasonable .284 wOBA against righties.
So look around, find some winning matchups and win all the monies! Good luck!
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
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Sully Sells Seashells By The Sawx Shaw
August 19, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 462 Commentsby: Grey
After the first two homer-game, I was like, “Yo, Grey, stop twirling your mustache and trying to squeeze into your Z. Cavariccis from high school and check out Travis Shaw.” And I did. Only, I wasn’t that impressed. He had five homers in 77 games in Triple-A. Then, a week or so later, he had his 2nd two-homer game and I was like, “Yo, Sir Hairlip-A-Lot, those Zubaz look awful on you, and maybe you look at Shaw’s numbers again.” And I did. His ‘big’ year in Double-A saw him hit 16 homers with a .221 average and again I came away yawnstipated; must be he’s showing some Maas appeal. Then, yesterday, he went 4-for-4 with two runs and is hitting .371 in 22 games, and I was like, “Yo, Fantasy Master Lothario, just let Cougs clean out your closet for you and really delve into Shaw’s numbers!” No, I don’t know what delve means but it sounds smart when I’m talking to myself. I’ve said it before, but Shaw feels exactly like a Maas appeal-type player. I bet after September he never even plays regularly on the Sawx again. But now suddenly you’re worried about the future? You weren’t when you were writing to the National Institute of Health about having nacho cheese classified as a vegetable. Get a 401K and grab Shaw until he stops hitting. Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
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