For the fifth installment of a full division’s worth of players, I offer you the NL East.
After diving into other divisions and seeing a level of mediocrity that I hadn’t initially expected, it was a pleasure to dig into the NL East to find that these position groups are loaded. Chances are, you drafted someone from this division to fill your 2B, SS, or MI needs. Let’s see how those drafting decisions look 2 ½ months in, as well as whether there are any sleepers to be looking out for.
Any position eligibility I reference is based on NFBC eligibility. All stats I reference in this article are as of end of play on 6-10-25.
The depth chart (according to MLB.com) of the 2B and SS positions for each team:
ATLANTA BRAVES – underperforming and maybe not as special as we thought
Surprisingly, based on Atlanta’s strong middle infield reputation over the last decade or so (at least before the Arcia days), this middle infield group is far and away the weakest in the division.
2B: Ozzie Albies, Nick Allen, Eli White
SS: Nick Allen, Luke Williams, Eli White
I was excited about Ozzie Albies coming into this season, but Albies has done nothing but disappoint so far. As I said at the time, I was
buying the dip on Albies’s price. I realize that the odd year = good Ozzie / bad year = bad Ozzie is just coincidence. But the odd-even thing comes out also in his HH% (mid- to upper-30s in odd years, closer to upper-20s to low-30s in even years). The odd-even pattern continues with higher PAs (odd years) to lower PAs (even years). SBs drop dramatically in even years. Despite those Good Ozzie vs. Bad Ozzie numbers, his BB% and K% are essentially the same each year, as is his LA.
This seems pretty simple: Albies is consistent in his plate-discipline metrics, but his numbers that would be affected by injury clearly drop. Sounds like injuries to me, and some of them are flukey. In fact, pretty much all of his even-year injuries involve broken bones or bone bruises. It’s not like the guy’s hamstrings are going bad every year. Buy. The. Dip.
Well, if you bought the dip as I suggested, I apologize. To my readers’ absolute credit, I haven’t been burned in effigy for my bad prediction (at least I don’t think I have anyway). In my 2B rankings last week, it was so clear that I had cooled on my love for Albies that my Razzball editors chose a picture of him as my article’s feature image on the website. Oops.
The fact that Albies isn’t hitting the ball hard this year (which counteracts my argument for why I was going to buy in initially) concerns me. The fact that he is swinging less often at balls in the zone really worries me. Is this just a confidence issue? I hope so, but we’re closing in on a full year and a half of mediocre to poor performance. I would certainly be looking to upgrade when and where I can.
In my May 15th waiver wire article, I discussed Nick Allen as a deep (like really deep) league option. As the starting SS for the Bravos (not a typo – I’m just not a huge fan of their actual name), he offers PAs in an offense that *I keep thinking* might find a way to be good. If Atlanta does turn it around, Allen could be a source of speed and Rs, but that’s about it. 15-team league or larger only, but there’s value to be had in those deeper leagues.
The biggest indicator of the Bravos’ decline may be the fact that Eli White had 154 PAs by June 11th. White’s performance has actually been sort of ok, putting him on a 600 PA pace of 12 HR, 92 R, 60 RBI, and 20 SBs.The fact that his HH% is only 36.6% and he’s hitting the ball on the ground nearly 50% of the time suggests that the 12 HR pace might not be legitimate, but now that Atlanta’s lineup has gotten a bit healthier, White’s PAs are drying up anyway.
If Acuna or anyone else is injured again, White may be worth a look anywhere you’re desperate for MI or OF help, but he shouldn’t be on rosters at this point except in the deepest of leagues.
Luke Williams is listed as #2 on the SS depth chart, but his 15 PAs makes me question whether the Bravos really consider him as anything but a desperation emergency option. For our fantasy teams, Williams has no reason to be rostered.
MIAMI MARLINS – sneaky valuable, even if injuries hit
While the Marlins may be the doormat of the NL East, their middle infield has some flair to it that I like. But if you have to go past the starters at 2B and SS, the outlook is bleak.
2B: Xavier Edwards, Javier Sonoja, Jack Winkler
SS: Otto Lopez, Javier Sanoja, Jack Winkler
I drafted virtually no shares of Xavier Edwards during draft season because I didn’t understand his draft price. My assessment was simple: “There is certainly value to be had with Edwards’s profile. His SB upside is a virtual lock, and there’s at least a reasonable shot at a good AVG. That’s about it. Zero power does not begin to explain his profile. And a bad Marlins lineup doesn’t scream R upside.” Edwards’s 600 PA pace puts him at a .283 AVG, 0 HR, 60 R, 40 RBI, and 30 SBs. Looks right.
There’s no doubt Edwards can be impactful where he’s helpful (AVG and SB), and if your team needs just those two things, he’s a great option. Batting in the 1-hole, even for a bad team like the Marlins, probably also gives him more R potential than I initially gave him credit for – and likely more than his current pace of 60 R. So certainly I think Edwards is worth rostering. If he’s on the waiver wire, he’s absolutely worth picking up just to see what he can do for you.
In my March 27th waiver wire article, I made my crush on Otto Lopez’s game clear. Not only was I excited about his speed, but I also believed
Lopez has a chance to be a real asset in AVG. In his first full season last year, he hit .270, and his underlying stats suggest he might be able to improve that number a bit. His Contact% (80.1%), Z-Contact% (88.6%), and K% (17.3%) tell us that he isn’t flailing blindly during at bats. He has a sense of what he wants to do at the plate, and his plate discipline gives him some room to grow as a hitter. His HH% at 38.4% is hard enough to do some damage …, and he consistently hits the ball on the ground (GB% of 53.6%). Hitting the ball in the air only a quarter of the time means few homers, but it also means higher BABIP. His speed should help the BABIP numbers as well – last year’s was .318, which I think is sustainable, maybe improvable. His minor league numbers also suggest AVG as a carrying tool: in 2,251 minor league PAs, he held a .300 AVG.
My optimism about his AVG has yet to manifest itself in reality, which I suspect is due to him struggling with injury and his HH% dipping around 5% so far this year. But his contact metrics have actually improved, and his current 600 PA pace of 18 HR, 69 Rs, 72 RBI, and 21 SB would be a benefit to most teams. I doubt he’ll maintain the power pace, but I’ll happily take a 12 HR / 25 SB season from my MI spot. I’m still very much in on Lopez.
At first, it appeared Javier Sanoja was receiving most of his playing time due to injuries to Edwards and Lopez, but now it looks like Sanoja is getting OF reps just because the Marlins are so bad. To the good, he offers plenty of SB potential (though his speed is a surprisingly average 27.5 ft/s), good swing decisions, and lots of ground balls, which may allow him, with his decent speed, to help his BABIP numbers. He offers zero power, and his spot in the 8- or 9-hole in the Marlins lineup doesn’t exactly promise counting stats. His minor league profile does indicate that his current .243 AVG may have a path to improvement – though his poor HH% makes me doubt that. If you are desperate for speed in a deep league, Sanoja might be a sneaky option for streaming SBs; otherwise, there doesn’t appear to be many paths to decent stats here.
Jack Winkler got the call-up from AAA on May 30th, so he is only 5 PAs into his big league career. Winkler’s minor league profile makes him look very much like what the Marlins seem to roster: low power, high speed, utility options. If he starts getting real playing time, he probably provides something similar to Sanoja, with possibly better overall speed.
NEW YORK METS – that SS is pretty good, and so are the prospects
In addition to having the single biggest middle infield star player in the division with Francisco Lindor, the Mets also have the deepest, most interesting depth chart. I actually kind of love everyone except for the player listed at 1 in the 2B depth chart.
2B: Jeff McNeil, Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, Luisangel Acuna
SS: Francisco Lindor, Luisangel Acuna, Ronny Mauricio
Luisangel Acuna has hit a playing time wall, so he has essentially no value to any fantasy rosters at this point. If injuries allow him to pick back up with consistent PAs at any point, I will be interested in his speed and potential for Rs. That is a huge IF though.
Brett Baty’s hot bat has cooled off significantly, but he is still getting PAs (though he’s usually near the bottom of the Mets’ batting order). As I wrote in my May 15th waiver wire piece, I really like his power potential. In 12-team leagues, I’m still interested in possibly having him on my roster due to his positional flexibility and his potential. And in 15-team leagues, I’m still playing him regularly.
Francisco Lindor is currently on pace to finish with around 30 HR & SB, as well as 80+ R & RBI. And he’s hitting .282. We know from experience that this is who Lindor is. If you drafted him, enjoy your spoils.
Ronny Mauricio is an exciting prospect who offers both power and speed. He’s currently hitting low in the Mets’ batting order, but he has played nearly every day since coming up to the show. As long as he’s playing, I’m definitely interested. If you see him on your waiver wire, I’d pick him up as a flyer in anything 12-teams or deeper, and he would be on my watch list in 10-team leagues.
Jeff McNeil seems, by far, to be the most limited player on the Mets’ middle infield depth chart. But the one true value he offers: he is almost always a source of good AVG, so he can certainly help lots of fantasy lineups there. He also somehow has 6 HRs in 128 PAs despite a HH% of only 31.3%. I wouldn’t expect the “power” surge to continue, but as long as he’s consistently playing in a stacked Mets’ lineup, he offers value. But, seriously, everyone else on this depth chart gets my attention more than McNeil does.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS – strong starting lineup but with questionable depth
An advantage of having several down years in a row is that smart organizations can use those lean times as a period to collect talent. The Washington Nationals used that time well, not only in the return for their Juan Soto trade to the San Diego Padres but also with their sneaky free agent adds and in their development of other players in the organization.
2B: Luis Garcia Jr., Amed Rosario, Jose Tena
SS: CJ Abrams, Paul DeJong (IL), Jose Tena, Amed Rosario
I am a CJ Abrams truther and have written glowingly about him several times (see articles on March 20th, April 3rd, and May 22nd). I thought his .313 AVG (as of May 21st) would drop by 50-60 points, but I didn’t mean that he would take less than 3 weeks to do that (he has a .269 AVG as of June 10th). Clearly, he’s slumping right now. But he’s still hitting the ball hard, and I don’t see any worrisome plate discipline tendencies developing. I suspect this is a cold streak somewhat influenced by his free-swinging ways (O-Swing% of 36%!!!) and lack of experience.
I’m afraid this is part of the package of Abrams, but I’m closing my eyes and letting him do his thing – I still expect something around 30 HR / 30+ SB. If anyone in your league is rostering him and losing faith in Abrams’s game, I would be quick to make them an offer to see if you can take that “problem” off their hands.
Paul DeJong (IL)
I actually like Paul DeJong for what he offers. As long as you know who he is and who he isn’t, he can contribute to most fantasy lineups. When healthy, he has pop – and that’s about it. Before his freak injury, he wasn’t hitting the ball as hard as he has in the past (down 4.5% from last season and max EV down almost 3 mph). But his swing is built to take advantage of LA (23.4°), pull rate (43.3%), and fly ball rate (40%) to end up with a helpful number of HRs. Although he has zero HRs in his first 57 PAs, he rode similar rates to 24 HRs last season. His xBA of .190 tells you he is a walking potential slump, but when he’s hot, he can provide power. Once he returns from the IL, I have no doubt I’ll be picking him up trying to catch his hot streaks and then either benching him or dropping him during his slumps – FYI, I don’t exactly recommend the “lightning in a bottle” strategy despite admitting that I’ll probably do it. DeJong will be most rosterable in 15-team leagues and deeper.
Luis Garcia Jr.
I think I have officially written about Luis Garcia Jr. enough times now (see articles on March 20th, April 17th, and June 5th) for any sane person to have had their fill of my opinion on him. Long story short: I like his hit tool, I underestimated how often Dave Martinez would let him run even with his shaky SB%, and his role as a platoon hitter makes him valuable but limits his overall ceiling. If you have him, you’re probably mostly satisfied, even happy, with what he’s doing. If you faded him in draft season, you can probably justify that decision by looking at all of his missed potential PAs against LHP.
Amed Rosario doesn’t get to play enough for how good of a hitter he is. Then again, his 2nd percentile defensive range, leaving him at -7 Outs Above Average (yes, that number started with a minus), makes it hard to justify putting him in a real baseball lineup.
Rosario acts as Luis Garcia Jr’s platoon partner, so if you’re in a daily lineup league, Rosario may be worth rostering for games vs. LHP. Other than the PAs from a short side of a platoon, the best hope for playing time is if an injury happens. If Garcia goes down at any point, I would be quick to pick up Rosario in most leagues.
Jose Tena entered the major leagues with some solid minor league numbers but no real defensive home with the Cleveland Guardians or, now, with Washington. Some of his numbers under the hood are exciting – I like the HH% of 41.8% and the EV of 89.7 mph, and his K% is reasonable (20.6%) while his BB% is fairly solid (9.9%). But his -0.3° LA along with his massive 59.4% GB% don’t bode well for Tena to be able to do much with the ball even when he hits it hard. Though he finds himself in the lineup over 60% of the time, unless he starts hitting more line drives at the very least, I find it hard to be too interested in him.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES – strong starting lineup with steady, though unexciting, depth
This team has true producers starting at 2B and especially SS, but there is also some sneaky depth with the reserve players.
2B: Bryson Stott, Edmundo Sosa, Weston Wilson, Otto Kemp
SS: Trea Turner, Edmundo Sosa, Bryson Stott
Otto Kemp’s minor league profile makes him look like a potential contributor in both HRs and SBs. Only 15 PAs in, he hasn’t had any impact yet, but it does look like he’ll get run at 1B while Bryce Harper is on the IL. He may be worth a pickup as a flyer.
Edmundo Sosa’s defensive play and ability to fill in at a variety of positions get him enough PAs to at least consider in deeper leagues. In his MLB career, Sosa has proven he can be a source of decent AVG (usually somewhere between .250 and the low .270s). Also, his 96th percentile sprint speed makes him a threat to run – except 2022 was the only time in the last 5 seasons that Sosa had an SBA% of at least 2%. He has yet to attempt a SB in his 103 PAs so far this season, so Sosa doesn’t seem all that interested in taking advantage of his speed. He doesn’t hit the ball hard, and he doesn’t produce a LA conducive to HRs – his MLB career high is 10 HRs in 300 PAs in 2023. So if you’re in a deep, deep league and need a source of AVG, Sosa could be a help to you, but he probably won’t provide much else. There is value to having some AVG help though.
I’ve written about Bryson Stott on multiple occasions this season (see articles from March 20th, April 17th, and June 5th). My assessment of him is simple – I was way too low on him during drafting season. Here is an excerpt from my last blurb, noting that Stott “continues to lead off vs. RHP, and he’s getting to face more LHP than I expected. He seems in good shape to accrue 600-650 PAs, with most of them coming from the top of a strong lineup. Give me his not-so-great 10-12 HRs if it means 80-85 Rs and 25-30 SBs. I wish I had drafted more shares.” If you’re in a shallow league and Stott is on your waiver wire, he’s worth a pickup, especially in daily lineup leagues in which you can maximize his PAs against RHP.
As I was with Stott, I was too low on Trea Turner during drafting season. I’ve always liked Turner (see articles on March 20th, April 3rd, and May 22nd), but my main concern was soft tissue injuries might limit his SBs. That has not turned out to be the case. While his power metrics were down for much of the first two months, he seems to have mostly righted that trend (he’s now up to 7 HRs this season), and his other stats are fantastic. This just in: Trea Turner is still good.
Weston Wilson piques my interest anytime he’s getting real playing time, but with just 41 PAs this season, he’s not currently a consideration to roster. If injuries occur and Wilson gets run, I’ll be watching him to see if he can help chip in a few HRs and SBs – that is, if I can risk the damage his AVG might do.
That’s the list for this week. In a loaded division full of star players, there may also still be some interesting players available on the waiver wire in shallow leagues. I would definitely be checking. Until next time. – ADHamley
Christian Moore to The Show. Thinking of dropping Manzardo in a Keep Forever to take a chance on a guy who might end up playing more than Manzi.