One thing I always like to reference when digging for starting pitchers on a given slate is total team strikeouts. If a team is striking out a ton, that only increases upside in a given match-up. It’s for this reason I tend to avoid using pitchers in DFS who are facing the Kansas City Royals. The Royals do in fact stink, but as a team, they don’t strike out as often as say, the Padres do. So, pick your crappy team carefully. Tonight, on this juicy 11 game slate, I’ll be using quite a bit of Zack Godley ($16,800). Godley was a big target of mine coming into this year and he’s disappointed, there’s no getting around that. However, he gets a match-up in San Diego that een he should be able to handle. He’s still rocking a 9+ K rate, but his 4 walk rate has killed him. Fortunately, the Padres are also near the bottom in total team walks (24th of 30). Couple that with their league worst .660 OPS vs. RHP and I think you’ve got yourself a winner.
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David Price, SP: $18,800 – Since getting blown up by the Yankees back on July 1st, Price has been surprisingly decent including a 10 K output last time out vs. the shell of the Baltimore Orioles. Tampa Bay is no shell, but I still see Price mowing down his old team.
Mike Foltynewicz, SP: $21,300 – Ah, the Rockies on the road, how we love ye. Folty always brings the strikeout upside and I like him for a win tonight but his price is steep so I’ll likely look elsewhere.
Tommy Milone, SP: $14,800 – This is a long shot and a GPP play only, but he’s got a few things going for him. 1) He gets to face the Marlins, 2) His teammates get to hit off Wei-Yin Chen and 3) He’s going to stick around long enough to get the Win. The Nats bullpen is a mess and Milone will be taking one for the team here, going as long as he can to save those pen arms.
Freddie Freeman, IF: $10,600 – Here we have a player on a hot streak getting to face a player fresh off the DL in Senzatela. I’m guessing Freeman tees off here. With the cheaper pitchers on the slate, you can probably even afford him!
Ryan Zimmerman, IF: $9,200 – Speaking of teeing off, Wei-Yin Chen should call in sick today, because it could get ugly. Zimmerman should get a prime lineup spot vs. a lefty and has power to spare.
Cody Bellinger, IF: $8,700 – Erasmo Ramirez has been around the block a few times and there’s a reason he’s never stuck around as a starter. Righties and lefties both hit Erasmo equally well, but I’ll stick with the lefty bats here. Just know, there’s no reason to discriminate.
Miguel Sano, IF/OF: $9,100 – It looks like Ryan Carpenter will be the tribute chosen to represent Detroit in tonight’s match-up. Quite frankly, I don’t like his chances. Carpenter was rocking a 5+ ERA in AAA and has done even worse in 12 big league innings (6.39 ERA). I’ll take any of the Twins bats, especially ones that have some pop like Sano.
Whit Merrifield, IF/OF: $7,600 – This is the Merrifield and Mondesi show right now and while Mondesi is getting all the love at the moment and his price reflects that ($8,100) but Whit is no slouch. Dylan Covey on the other hand is a slouch, with a 6+ ERA and 4.5+ FIP. Expect these two to be on base plenty tonight.
Brandon Belt, IF/OF: $8,400 – Consider me not a believer in the Matt Harvey renaissance. He still stinks, and I’ll take anyone with a shot to take him deep.
Nicholas Castellanos, IF/OF: $8,700 – Boy could we have a real doozy in Minnesota tonight with Ryan Carpenter taking on Kohl Stewart. Yee haw, I can’t imagine why attendance is down in baseball this season. Ouch, eyeroll headache! Anyway, Stewart has a 6+ ERA and a FIP of 4+. Castellanos is about the only offense left in Detroit, so why not take a shot?
Shohei Ohtani, OF: $8,000 – It looks like Martin Perez is filling in for Mike Minor tonight, that’s a laugh. Perez has a 7.50 ERA this month, so I’d say it’s Ohtani time!
Joc Pederson, OF: $9,300 – More Erasmo Ramirez exposure, I just can’t get enough!
Marcell Ozuna, OF: $7,400 – FantasyDraft has priced Ozuna too low all season long. I get it, he’s been bad, but not as bad as his price would suggest. Wade Miley has a 2.23 ERA and a 4.20 FIP. I would say that means a visit from the regression fairies is in order. Ozuna should get in on that action.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
It could get a little wet in Pittsburgh and Boston, but not enough that I’m worried. It might make me hesitate on Price in case of a delay, but check closer to lock to see what the radar looks like. Also, it’s summer in Atlanta, so there’s always a 40% chance of a thunderstorm.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Tommy Milone and the Nats are -200 favorites, never thought I’d see the day Tommy Milone was a huge favorite, but here it is. Apparently Vegas agrees with me on the likelyhood he gets a win. The highly entertaining pitching duel of Carpenter v. Stewart has the highest over/under tonight at 9.5 runs. What an ugly game, but there will be DFS points to be had!
