Error And The Growth Of Experimental Knowledge: Getting A Better Sense Of The Shortstop Landscape

The last time I published a shortstop ranking was April 3rd, right as the season was starting to feel like a dependable part of our lives again. Excitement abounded, but data didn’t, so the list was largely based on what I thought going into the season. Now that we are closing in on 50 games played for each team, some patterns may be emerging. So let’s see what’s different from early April and what errors I made at the time.

I am using NFBC for position eligibility, so it’s possible that other players may be eligible at SS in other sites. All stats are as of end of day, 5/20/25.

 

4/3/25 rank in parentheses:

Biggest Riser: Geraldo Perdomo

Biggest Faller: Bo Bichette 

 

1.  Bobby Witt Jr. (1)

The last time I discussed Bobby Witt, Jr., he had no HRs yet. Six weeks later, he still isn’t off to a huge start – currently he has 5 HRs, on pace for just under 20 for the season. Am I worried that he has lost his power stroke? Not even a little. Guess how many HRs he had last year on May 19th? If you guessed 5, you are the winner winner chicken dinner.

Witt has 16 SBs, a K-rate of 17.4%, and a Hard Hit-rate of 48.1%. He is hitting the ball in the air at a rate that is within 2% of last year’s rate when he hit 32 HRs. He’s also turned himself into a near-elite AVG source. If you picked Witt at 1 or 2 in your draft, I suspect you’re not disappointed in what he’s doing.

2.  Elly De La Cruz (3)

Elly De La Cruz’s surface stats look great – we’ll happily take 8 HR and 16 SB a third of the way into the season. But that GB rate of 57.1% is troubling. Last year’s GB% of 46.3 was bad; 11 points higher means significantly less HR potential. The upside is that a higher GB% probably helps Elly’s AVG due to his speed, but I’d prefer he be the guy who can contribute 25 HR  and 60 SB. At this rate, though, it may look more like 20 HR / 45 SB, which is still pretty amazing. But I am watching that GB rate closely.

3.  Gunnar Henderson (2)

Gunnar Henderson got off to a miserable start upon his return from injury. The end of April found Henderson with a robust stat line of a .228 AVG, 3 HR, 12 R, 5 RBI, and 3 SB in 97 PAs. In 76 May PAs, he has added 25 points to his AVG, 4 HR, 8 R, 8 RBI, 1 SB, and 83 points to his OPS, so he seems to be rounding back into form.

I am concerned about his K-rate which has jumped over 6% from last year, but his HH% and EV have also gone up (4.6% and 2.2 mph respectively). I certainly would like to see him stop pressing at the plate and trying to hit a 5-run HR for every AB, but his power metrics have me feeling better. I think Gunnar will be Gunnar for the rest of the year, assuming he doesn’t just stop trying due to the dumpster fire that is Baltimore’s team. Smart or not, I’m still riding with him in my top 5.

4.  Francisco Lindor (4)

Francisco Lindor has quietly put up strong surface stats with a .280 AVG, 9 HR, 29 R, 28 RBI, and 7 SB. With his tendency for slow starts, I’m excited to see numbers like that. A number I’m not excited to see, however, is his HH%, which is currently over 7% lower than last year’s. His Barrel% is over 5 points down. His EV is down 1.2 mph, and his maxEV is down 3 mph. Is the power dip just related to the slow start? For now, I’m going to believe so.

5.  Oneil Cruz (6)

It’s easy to compare Oneil Cruz to Elly De La Cruz in body type, but the assumption was that Elly would far outperform his counterpart. Yet in 9 fewer games and 44 fewer PA, Cruz and De La Cruz have some interesting similarities in their stats:

De La Cruz: 217 PA, .246 AVG, 8 HR, 32 R, 33 RBI, 16 SB – per 600 PA: 22 HR, 88 R, 91 RBI, 44 SB

Cruz: 173 PA, .220 AVG, 8 HR, 24 R, 18 RBI, 18 SB – per 600 PA: 28 HR, 83 R, 62 RBI, 62 SB.

If you can stomach Oneil Cruz’s AVG (which I suspect will end up being closer to .235 or .240), those are some incredible numbers for your RD 3 pick. I value AVG enough that I’m not going to move him above Lindor, but I’m definitely not sad if I drafted Cruz.

6.  Mookie Betts (5)

Mookie Betts is having the relative dip in power that I expected – his HH% is 4.1 points down from last year’s, which was nearly 9% lower than the previous year’s. His EV, maxEV, and Barrel% are all down as well. His Barrel% of 3.8 is really worrisome. He currently has 8 HR, and it looks like that pace, which would put him at around 25 HR at the end of the year, is about as good as we can hope for – and, I suspect, better than he’ll end up with if he doesn’t start hitting the ball with more authority. His 5 SB are right on pace with last year when he ended with 16 SB for the year. A 22 HR / 16 SB guy might be who he is now.

But his counting stats in R (39) and RBI (30) are providing value in important areas. I think his BABIP is currently running lower than it will eventually end up, which will help bump his AVG up closer to his norms of the last 5 years. He’s still an excellent fantasy asset, just not quite the player he was in 2023.

7.  CJ Abrams (8)

CJ Abrams continues to do nothing but impress me. He looks like a real 30 HR / 30 SB threat, and he’s backing it up with an excellent – and likely inflated – AVG. I would expect his .313 AVG to drop by 50-60 points (especially based on his bloated BABIP), but I’ll definitely take a .250 AVG, 30 HR, 80 R, 70 RBI, 30 SB guy.

He has taken notable jumps in HH%, Barrel%, EV, and maxEV, and added to those improvements, his bat speed is up by .6 mph. This looks real. And he looks to me like a stud.

8.  Zach Neto (13)

For Zach Neto, re-read everything I just said for Abrams. Like Abrams, Neto is likely running lucky with his AVG, which I would expect to drop by 30-40 points down to the .230-.240 range. His 74.2% Contact% isn’t great and suggests the capacity for slumps, but all of his power metrics look great. When this guy is locked in, watch out. I would expect him to have nearly identical numbers to Abrams, with just a bit lower AVG due to his lack of plate discipline.

9.  Trea Turner (7)

Trea Turner has dropped a couple of spots, not so much due to his lack of performance, but because I’ve been so impressed with Abrams and Neto. Turner seems like largely the same guy he’s been in terms of a good hitter. But his power metrics drop has me concerned about what his HR total will look like. It seems likely Turner will end the year with around 15 HR instead of 20-25, but his batting AVG gives him a different appeal from Abrams and Neto. 

So far, it looks like his soft tissue injuries haven’t affected his legs, and a solid source of AVG who gives 80 R and 30 SB still has great value.

10.  Corey Seager (10)

Corey Seager is doing Corey Seager-type things. He is hitting .300, he is on pace to hit around 35 HR over a 600 PA season, and he’s currently on the IL for the second time. Sounds right. If he can somehow put together 450 PAs, you’ll like the results. But I didn’t draft him because I have no idea if he can even put together 300 PAs.

11.  Jeremy Pena (15)

Jeremy Pena has improved his plate discipline in ways that look sustainable. He is swinging outside the zone less often, taking more walks, and hitting more line drives. I don’t think he is going to keep a .300 AVG, but I wouldn’t be surprised by .280. Add that to 20 HR & SB and 75 R & RBI, and we have ourselves quite a good player.

12.  Matt McLain (9)

So far this season, Matt McLain has been both outstanding and terrible. His 6 HRs and 10 SBs are very impressive considering he can’t seem to hit the ball this year. His .176 AVG is brutal, but a BABIP 70-100 points below where he usually sits tell me he will likely level out. Someone with his speed and power is a dangerous hitter, but his mediocre Contact% and his frightening CSW% (32.4!!) guarantee that slumps will be a thing that we can depend on. Still, virtually every projection system puts him at a season-ending line around a .230 AVG, 20 HR, 65-75 R & RBI, and 25 SB – and frankly, I think those projections reflect his floor. There’s value there, amazing value if he becomes what I *think* he can, but you may want to close your eyes and not watch the method he uses to get to those stats.

13.  Dansby Swanson (16)

If you were disciplined enough to stay patient with Dansby Swanson during his month-long slump to open the season, you have been handsomely rewarded. He has gone into MVP mode over the last month, a period in which he has improved his AVG by 85 points and accrued a stat line of 6 HR, 23 R, 15 RBI, and 5 SB. I would be ok with that line being his full season line to this point, but with the modest stats from Swanson’s slow start added to the last month, he comes to 10 HR, 35 R, 27 RBI, and 7 SB. I’ve said Dansby is like oatmeal, but this is a gourmet breakfast.

But let’s face facts: Swanson isn’t this good. And we know he isn’t as bad as he was for the first month. I think the Razzball rest-of-season projection is dead on: .244 AVG, 13 HR, 44 R, 45 RBI, and 10 SB. If you’re a Dansby lover and you want to feel truly happy, check out the BatX rest-of-season projection: .260 AVG, 19 HR, 64 R, 66 RBI, and 13 SB. I don’t know what Derek Carty is seeing that makes him think Dansby is going to end up with 30 HR and 20 SB, but I’d love to see it. Swanson has dropped his GB% by 9.5% and raised his FB% by 6.4%, so maybe a projection that optimistic will come to pass. I have my doubts though. Regardless of which of the two projections is closer, I’ll happily take whatever season Dansby has in store – he looks like the Dansby I love to watch.

14.  Geraldo Perdomo (N/R)

It’s probably time to start believing, at least to some extent, in the Geraldo Perdomo renaissance. I keep waiting for the dream season to come back to reality, but he might just be this good now. What impresses me most, besides his elite contact skills, is the fact that although he slumped fairly badly over the last third of April, he quickly righted the ship. Perdomo dropped from a .324 to a .253 AVG between April 18th and April 28th, but he has worked his way back up to his current .307 AVG. A player who’s playing over his head usually isn’t able to stop the slump once the hot streak ends (at least, that’s what I anecdotally seem to remember). The fact that he was able to climb back up to .300 makes me think his new performance level might not be above his skillset.

I don’t expect him to end the season with 90 RBIs, but I do think a .285 AVG, 12 HR, 80 R, 65 RBI, and 25 SB might be a reasonable expectation. That kind of player has tremendous value.

15.  Anthony Volpe (17)

OK, maybe I am starting to understand what some others see in Anthony Volpe. He is smoking the ball so far this year: after nearly 200 PAs, his HH% is up a massive 12.7% from last year. Wow. His Barrel rate looks like it did in his semi-breakout of 2023, and his EV is up more than 3 mph. With all of that, he’s also increased his walk rate to a very respectable 10.7%.

His drop in Contact% suggests his improvements might not be quite as promising as they’ve looked in the season’s first 2 months, but I love that he has dropped his O-Swing% by over 8%. He looks more disciplined and patient, and no one ever disputed his power. Volpe certainly has my interest piqued, but I’m not ready to completely buy in yet.

16.  Willy Adames (12)

Willy Adames seems to be mostly settling in with his new team. While I don’t think he’s locked in yet and will have to continue to improve in order to get closer to the Adames we’ve seen in the past, fantasy players’ fears about how Oracle Park would limit his upside seem legit. His 30 HR past is probably, at best, a 25 HR present, and surely no one really believed he was going to repeat his 21 SB. Still, a stat line of a .240 AVG, 25 HR, 75-80 R & RBI, and 12 SB is a solid contribution. The muted upside, though, leads me to drop him down the list.

17.  Xander Bogaerts (14)

Xander Bogaerts looks mostly like Xander Bogaerts right now. He’s no longer special, but he’s a solid contributor. He has dropped down my list because I think the players above him offer more impact with HRs and SBs, but he’s fine. I have described Dansby Swanson as oatmeal with a hint of cinnamon. Xander may just be plain ol’ oatmeal, but that has its place in a balanced diet, I mean lineup.

18.  Bo Bichette (11)

Bo Bichette continues to smoke the ball (HH% of 49.1%), but he also continues to pound the ball directly into the ground (GB% of 44.2%). He’s a good hitter who could have significant power, but his tendencies keep him from breaking out. I’d love to see him change his approach at the plate, but that change doesn’t appear to be imminent. Still, expect around 20 HRs with a strong AVG.

19.  Masyn Winn (20)

In my April 3rd shortstop ranks article, I went Chicken Little on Masyn Winn being stuck at the bottom of the Cardinals’ batting order, suggesting that dropping from leadoff to the 9-hole would cost Winn 100+ PAs. I am happy to report that Ollie Marmol has changed his mind and moved Winn all the way back to the 2-hole. Since that move higher in the order, which started on April 30th, Winn has rewarded the decision by raising his AVG by 36 points and hitting 4 of his 5 HRs on the season. He has also piled up 16 of his 27 Rs, 11 of his 16 RBIs, and 1 of his 2 SBs. Those numbers aren’t exactly going to get Winn to an All-Star game, but that stat line plays. 

He’s hitting the ball hard more often, and he’s clearly been focused on raising his LA, which currently sits at a likely unsustainable 18.5° and has resulted in a FB% that is currently 6 points higher than last year’s. I don’t think the power surge will be his carrying skill, but 20 HR seems like a reasonable expectation. And while Winn’s plan to steal 30-40 bases seems, um, optimistic, I’ll take a .270 AVG, 20 HR, 65 R & RBI, 10 SB season from my middle infield spot on my roster.

20.  Ezequiel Tovar (18)

I am admittedly not a big believer in Ezequiel Tovar, but he’s gotten my attention. Finally back after a month away due to a hip contusion, he’s come back with a vengeance. In just four days, he has lifted his AVG by 51 points. That’s of course aided by his small number of PAs so far, but he’s also gone 7 of 17 with 1 HR and a triple. More importantly, he’s smacking the ball hard – an EV in the low- to mid-90s mph each game of his return. His HH% is currently sitting 6 points higher than he finished last year. He is also striking out at a clip 11% lower than last year. It’s too early to know if any of those numbers mean anything, but I at least want to know more.

 

That’s the list for now. I’ll be back with a top 20 rank list at 2B in two weeks, and next week I’ll go back to exploring middle infield depth charts, this time for the AL Central. 

Until next week. – ADHamley