With the first half of the MLB season in the books, I thought it might be a good idea to do a quick mid-season evaluation of the players who have been profiled in this series over the last two and a half months. Of course, that entails reminding you of all of the many mistakes that I’ve made this season. Hmmm… maybe this isn’t such a good idea after all. Oh well, too late now. As the great Frank Drebin once said, “Like a midget at a urinal, I was going to have to stay on my toes.” It’s accountability time. As we look back on the bears/bulls of the first half, we’ll examine what went right, what went wrong, and what’s yet to be determined.
Just as a quick reminder, the players who are labeled “bulls” are the ones who I’m bullish, or optimistic, about going forward, while the “bears” are the players who I’m bearish on and expect regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at the monthly breakdowns of this season’s bears and bulls (post date can be found next to each player’s name):
April Bulls: Kris Bryant (4/2), Chris Archer (4/23)
April Bears: Starlin Castro (4/9), Marcell Ozuna (4/16), Matt Holliday (4/30)
The Right: Despite spending the first two weeks of the regular season in the minors to delay his arbitration clock, Bryant has lived up to his elite prospect status thus far. His 47/12/51/8/.269 batting line is currently good for 46th overall (and the 6th best third baseman) on the Razzball Player Rate. Archer has proven that his strong start to the season was the beginning of a breakout rather than just a brief hot streak, and he currently ranks as the #8 SP in fantasy and the #35 overall player.
Since Ozuna’s article posted on April 16th, he’s produced a .253/.300/.346 triple slash line with 4 home runs and just 1 stolen base in 290 PA. The Marlins demoted him to the minors on July 5th. Castro has produced a .246/.282/.321 triple slash line with 5 homers and 4 steals in 354 PA since April 9th, and is currently the #20 SS according to the player rater.
The Wrong: Nothing (yet)
Jury’s Out: Holliday only managed a .267/.370/.405 line with 2 homers and no steals from April 30th through June 8th, but he hasn’t played in over a month due to injury. While durability is always factored into these recommendations, they are mostly performance-based, and it’s impossible to say how Holliday would have performed over that time period.
May Bulls: David Ortiz (5/7), Adrian Beltre (5/21)
May Bears: Avisail Garcia (5/15), Mike Moustakas (5/28)
The Right: Da Bears. Since May 15th, Garcia has produced a .238/.294/.337 triple slash line with 4 homers and 3 steals (14 homer, 11 steal full season pace). While counting stats can certainly be fickle, his 14 runs and 20 RBI over that span project to 49 runs and 69 RBI across a full season. Moustakas has a .254/.317/.338 line with 2 homers and no steals since May 28th.
The Wrong: Father Time takes this round. While Ortiz has hit for solid power since May 7th (11 homers, 31 RBI, .442 SLG), his .226 batting average over that span leaves something to be desired. His 20 runs scored would put him on a 60 run pace across a full season as well. While Beltre missed the first three weeks of June due to a thumb injury, he hasn’t done much at all this season, as his .243/.279/.357 triple slash line since May 21st clearly indicates. Maybe Bobby D can play one of these aging bulls in the sequel.
June Bulls: Troy Tulowitzki (6/4), Mookie Betts (6/18)
June Bears: Starling Marte (6/11), Ian Desmond (6/25)
The Right: Mooookie. Since June 18th, Betts has produced an impressive .337/.379/.621 triple slash line (1.000 OPS!) with 4 homers and 3 steals in 104 PA. Desmond’s disappointing season continues. Since June 25th, he’s produced a .160/.204/.320 line with 3 walks and 17 strikeouts in 54 PA. The 2 homers and 3 steals over that span show that the 20/20 player is still lurking in there somewhere, but he needs to show more.
The Wrong: Nothing (yet)
Jury’s Out: Tulo’s put up a solid .342/.398/.467 triple slash line with 4 homers and 21 RBI since June 5th, but it’s still not quite the vintage Tulo that’s we’ve come to know over the past few years. A little more power and he could be moved into the “right” category. At least he’s managed to avoid injuries thus far. Marte’s .340/.373/.423 line and 5 steals over the past month (103 PA) look quite strong, but that production is largely due to a ridiculous .457 BABIP over that time period, and he’s only managed 1 homer and 8 RBI. His 26 strikeouts (with only 4 walks) over that span are quite high as well.
July Bulls: Charlie Blackmon (7/10)
July Bears: Yasiel Puig (7/2)
The jury’s still out on both of these recent evaluations.
What do you think? Agree/disagree with these assessments? Let me know in the comments, along with any recommendations for players to profile in the second half. Thanks for reading.
