Dynasty drafts come in several shapes and sizes. Some leagues break the player groups into veterans and prospects. Some leagues let you draft 34-year-old relievers right alongside 16-year-old little brothers. I don’t really have a favorite way to cut it up. I just love the game. Though I will say the Razz 30 has something special going on with a prospects-only draft and a vets-only auction that becomes, at its core, a bums-only auction. It’s about two weeks of slow-bidding Steven Brault up to $21, and it’s a treat like few others in the fantasy realm. Jose Martinez once sold for $96. Michael Pineda went for $62. Zach Davies for $36. Two of those are purchases of mine! The fun never ends! Well, except when you ask MLB owners if they’d rather make money or take all the different balls and go home.

Anywho, I’ve broken this year’s First-Year-Player Draft rankings down into tiers and included some snippets about where my head would be during those spots on the draft board.

You can find most of these guys in the 2022 Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Minor League Preview Index

If not, feel free to drop a question in the comments so we can talk some baseball, pass the time.

Format: Position Player | Team | Age on 4/1/2022 

1. SS Kahlil Watson | Marlins | 19

2. SS Marcelo Mayer | Red Sox | 19

3. SS Brady House | Nationals | 19

Get yourself one of the named guys if you can. I’d probably shop Mayer around the league if I landed him. Would probably hold House and/or Watson long term. 

 

4. SS Jordan Lawlar | Diamondbacks | 19 

5. OF Seiya Suzuki | ? | 27

6. RHP Jack Leiter | Rangers | 22

7. OF Jay Allen II | Reds | 19

Suzuki would be tier one if we knew he’d be playing. Leiter would be lower if the class had more big-time bats. Allen is my favorite player in the class in terms of topside versus cost. Have to jump in around the early teens to make it happen, I think. 

 

8. OF Colton Cowser | Orioles | 22

9. C Henry Davis | Pirates | 22 

10. 3B James Triantos | Cubs | 19

11. OF James Wood | Padres | 19

12. RHP Jackson Jobe | Tigers | 19

Rich soil here. I like all these guys at the spots they’re going. Have really warmed up to Jobe. He’s got an inside lane on being the number one pitching prospect in the near future. That’s as much curse as blessing, but it carries with it a ton of trade value if the planets align. Can make a case to take him over Cowser in a pitching-heavy league, but it’s not just trade value that appeals to me about Jobe. They’ve revamped pitching development in Detroit, and I think he’s as safe as high school righties get. (So, as safe a zombie apocalypse? Yeah. Something like that.)

 

13. OF Sal Frelick | Brewers | 22

14. C Harry Ford | Mariners | 19

15. SS Roderick Arias | Yankees | 17

16. OF Cristian Vaquero | Nationals | 17

17. OF Oscar Colas | White Sox | 23

Could flip the first four around in any order. Can also make a case against Colas being in the group, given his age and lack of recent professional experience, but he played at the highest levels in Cuba and Japan (albeit briefly) when he was a chubby teenager and held his own. Word is he’s no longer the shape he was then. Luis Robert refers to him as his little brother. The White Sox have as much success as anyone in signing Cuban players as far back as Alexei Ramirez and beyond. The current crew of Abreu, Grandal, Moncada, and Robert provide a transitional safety net for Colas, and Yolbert Sanchez joins him in the minors. All this is to say, I think people are picturing a pot-bellied oldster, and when they see an athletic-looking Colas, he’ll gain some ground. 

 

18. SS Matt McLain | Reds | 22

19. 3B Zack Gelof | Athletics | 22

20. 3B Colson Montgomery | White Sox | 20

21. RHP Gavin Williams | Guardians | 22

22. SS Trey Sweeney | Yankees | 22

23. RHP Will Bednar | Giants | 22

24. OF Benny Montgomery | Rockies | 19

25. 1B Kyle Manzardo | Rays | 21

26. 1B/OF Lazaro Montes | Mariners | 17 

27. RHP Robert Suarez | Padres | 31

Tiers start getting crowded here. You could cut it finer if you like, maybe drop it after Montgomery then again after Montgomery (what?), but you don’t want to be trading up to pick an apple over an orange here. Everyone in the group would be a good pick. Still, I’m checking to make sure someone like Vaughn Grissom or Dustin Harris isn’t available before I draft any of these dudes. 

I didn’t know what to do with Suarez, whose value varies from format to format and contention cycle to contention cycle. I do know I want him on my rosters.  I’d bump him up quite a bit in saves-only formats.

 

28. SS Ricardo Cabrera | Reds | 17

29. RHP Ty Madden | Tigers | 22

30. 2B Connor Norby | Orioles | 22

31. SS Carson Williams | Rays | 19 

32. 2B Cooper Kinney | Rays | 19 

33. RHP Gunnar Hoglund | Blue Jays | 22

34. LHP Jordan Wicks | Cubs | 22

I keep wanting to drop Wicks and Hoglund down a tier, but their value seems fairly well protected. I’d be much more likely to take Hoglund and watch his value creep as his return from Tommy John surgery nears. Wicks could have a string of meltdowns and become borderline droppable. Being a Cub cushions his value, but that only goes so far, especially considering their struggles to develop pitching. They’ve made big strides in that area; however, and that’s part of the reason I’ll leave Wicks here even if I’d be unlikely to draft him.

The full truth is I’m probably not drafting any of these guys, preferring to scour my league’s free agent pool for the Brendon Davis and Richie Palacios types. 

 

35. RHP Bubba Chandler | Pirates | 19

36. OF Lonnie White Jr. | Pirates | 19 

37. OF Jordan Viars | Phillies | 18

38. RHP Ryan Cusick | Atlanta | 22 

39. RHP Sam Bachman | Angels | 22

40. 3B Alex Binelas | Red Sox | 22

41. SS Bryan Acuña | Twins | 16 

42. SS Ryan Reckley | Giants | 17 

43. SS Diego Benitez | Atlanta | 17

Big upside in this tier with some college-pitching life rafts for the risk/time averse. 

The three teeny boppers at the back are all targets for me. Might be tough to fit any onto a contender though, as I’m likely to be drafting relievers around this range. Guys like RJ Dabovich and Dylan Coleman start to jump out around now for contending teams. 

 

44. SS William Bergolla Jr. | Phillies | 17

45. 3B Samuel Muñoz | Dodgers | 17

46. LHP Matt Mikulski | Giants | 23

47. SS Dyan Jorge | Rockies | 18

48. OF Joshua Baez | Cardinals | 19

49. C Joe Mack | Marlins | 19 

50. SS Jackson Merrill | Padres | 19

As we try to tell my daughter, you get what you get and you don’t get upset. Some big-time upside way back here with Bergolla, Baez, Jorge, and Muñoz. Every podcast I heard and article I read couldn’t stop talking about how awful this class was for dynasty baseball, and I couldn’t stop disagreeing with them. Good luck out there!

Thanks for reading!

I’m @theprospectitch on Twitter.

 

45 Comments
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r_wright14621@yahoo.com
5 months ago

How would you rank the following prospects in a NL only two catcher keeper league ($260 salary cap)? Once we activate prospect from our minor league roster, they can be kept for 2 years at $1.

Henry Davis
Jordan Walker
Miguel Vargas
Kahlil Watson
Brady House
Cade Cavalli
Jordan Lawlar

r_wright14621@yahoo.com
Reply to  [email protected]
5 months ago

Also, what kind of prime projections do you see for Henry Davis?

Guppy55
Guppy55
5 months ago

My Itch driven FYPD:
Rd/pick Player/Team
1/14 Colton Cowser OF/BAL
3/33 Jay Allen OF/CIN
5/58 Connor Hoglund SP/TOR
5/62 James Wood OF/SD
5/72 Alexander Vargas SS/NYY
5/78 Ryne Nelson SP/ARI
6/90 James Winder SP/MIN
6/94 Owen Cassie OF/SD
7/110 Zach Gelof 3B/OAK
8/126 Jose Salas SS/MIA
9/142 Jose Rodriguez SS/CHW
10/158 Alexander Ramirez OF/NYM

Thoughts?

Hu Ann Eat Oh
Hu Ann Eat Oh
5 months ago

I need to make a choice between Vaughn Grissom or James Triantos. Who should I keep?

Mike P
6 months ago

So I’m in the middle of a rebuild and find myself caught between the two worlds. 10 team 5×5 with obp and w+qs and s+h are the categories. Daily lineups. We keep 25 only 20 can be MLB talent

My team

1b: CJ Cron
2b: DJ
Ss: xander
3b: moncada
Corner:
Middle: Jazz
Of: Castellanos, Judge, Verdugo, Franmil Reyes, Stanton, Straw

Pitchers: Jose Berrios, Luis Severino, Justin Verlander, Tyler Glassnow

(15)

Prospects:

Hedbert Perez
Orelvis Martinez
Robert Hassell
Noveli Marte
Jordan Walker
Anthony Volpe
Francisco Alverez
Spencer Torkelson
MJ Melendez

Emerson Hancock
George Kirby
Max Meyer

(12)

So I need to drop 2 guys. And want to know who I should be targeting from the new prospect class. Important fact relevant to my league- a lot of the league doesn’t buy into the value of prospects so there isnt a big value placed on them in the trade market unless they are super heralded. I’m looking primarily to fill future team needs.

I hold the following draft picks for the upcoming hobo draft:

1.1
1.2
1.6
1.9
2.2
2.9
3.1
3.2
3.6
3.9
4.5
4.9
5.1
5.5
6.10
7.8

My original thinking after I realized that I may have half baked my rebuild was to just target the best available SP’s and Relievers and pluck a prospect or two and try and compete without emptying my stockade of prospects. But the more I think about it, the less i feel like I’ll have much more than a shot at being a fringe playoff team incapable of going on any deep run.

Any help or suggestions are welcome.

Mike P
Reply to  The Itch
6 months ago

Thank you so much for taking the time to go over my roster. I appreciate your insights and the time you took. I have Soler and Ranger Suarez on my roster as well currently but wasn’t considering keeping either.

Sport
Sport
6 months ago

Itch!!! I completely missed this the other day and I had been waiting on it!

I have the 4th pick and really wanting House to fall to me, and then possibly Allen or Ford in the 2nd round. 10 teams.

Keith Law recently made bold prediction that Junior Marin, in the Royals system, could be top 100 by the end of the year. I couple reports I read says he has some serious power. Have you looked in on him yet?

Alan
Alan
6 months ago

Why do you think this year’s class gets such a bad rap? There are a lot of good guys. Is it just that there is no impact right away guys? Maybe the lack of information during covid? 2018 and 2017 were way uglier.

I mean other than Wood and Colson Montgomery, those top 18 will be major leaguers for sure, and then Merrill and Bachman are sexy 3rd or 4th rounders in some leagues — Bachman is called a possible ace in some resources.

I like that you have Acuna, I did not even see him in the top 50 signees on MLB or BA or on any other FYPD list. Will definitely snag him. What the hell is in the genes of their parents? I think governments need to make sure they push out some more babies for baseball’s sake.

You da’ man, till next time

Bill
Bill
6 months ago

I got 6th pick, would I be crazy to go Dustin Harris if he is available if it comes down to Leiter, Allen, Harris, Elly De la Cruz (also available), and Cowser? Not looking to use the pick or prospects to trade.

Also, I have seen Watson and Lawlar go 1-2 in a couple drafts, how much conviction you got House and Mayer over Lawlar if you are not planning on trading them? Saw Keith Law said Lawlar could be top prospect in baseball next year.

Thanks for all the good work.

Dr Sauce
Dr Sauce
6 months ago

Hey Itch,
Thoughts on Mookie Betts this year? I’m a little nervous on him but his track record is so solid! I’m asking because I have him in a 6 player keeper league (he’s my 6th keeper), but I really want to keep Bobby Witt. Is Bobby Witt can’t miss enough that I could move Betts for a pick and keep him? Or do I simply play safe, keep Betts and try to re-draft Witt. Maybe I getting to googly eyed over the ‘so called’ next big thing?? Thanks for looking, always appreciate your fresh takes. Cheers!

CardFan
CardFan
6 months ago

Love your write-ups!! Your last Top 100 was September. When will a new Top 100 be coming?

rocket
rocket
Reply to  The Itch
6 months ago

I feel like this question is out of place but wasn’t sure where else to ask it. Do you think there’s any hope for Jay Groome still?

jimmothy66
jimmothy66
6 months ago

What about Mayer would make you shop him around?

Fred
6 months ago

I took over an 8th-place orphan in a 12-team H2H roto dynasty league, that allows 15 minor leaguers. Going into my first FYPD (and first dynasty draft of any kind) would it be better to target these players, or older players like Elehuris Montero, Brandon Davis or Lawrence Butler who are closer to majors if they’re still available? Thanks, Itch.

dude
dude
6 months ago

How will Suzuki’s game translate over to US? Trying to figure out what kind of stat’s he’s capable of and haven’t seen many people project him.

junior56
junior56
6 months ago

Thank you, your insight, it’s top tier!

What do you hear about the CBA negotiations?

Have an upcoming free agent draft in a 16-team dynasty picks 8,24,40. Do you think at 8 it’s too early to grab Triantos? Wiemer?

Lastly where do you think Correa signs? Is Pena’s bat ready for the MLB?

Have a great Sunday Itch!

junior56
junior56
Reply to  The Itch
6 months ago

Thanks Itch!

I like Wiemer…My prospect OF’s are Veen, Valera, Riley Greene so depth there. Weak at MI Bichette, Mondesi, and Fletcher

Player pool would be
Watson
Mayer
House
Lawler
Suzuki
Wiemer
J. Pena
Allen
Jobe
M. Grissom
Davis
Leiter
Triantos

Thanks!

JRod
Crab Jrod
6 months ago

Ahhh kept your thoughts to yourself until we were in round 4! I c u Itch! #crabarmy

Eek
Eek
6 months ago

Man I got pick 1 and 2 this year and every time I think I’ve figured out who to take I read something that changes my mind. Law says lawler could be top prospect next year but BA loves Mayer and Watson is so sexy. Then house is no 2 here and BA. I just read if lawler hits but he got hurt and if he hits isn’t something I wanna hear lol. Plus BP loves him. But same was said about Witt too so.

Anyway, great work this year on the prospects. The writing is on razzball brand and very helpful and easy to follow and understand.

I think Mayer and watson are the top 2 too cus of hit tool, and hope house isn’t 40 homers and 270, and that lawler don’t go Witt.

galica1234
galica1234
6 months ago

The Itch!!!!

Awesome!

a. I realized something recently. You are ‘The Itch’ and just ‘Itch’ or ‘An Itch’, you’re ‘The Itch’ and I respect and acknowledge that.

b. Had a dynasty draft yesterday. 12-teams, 5×5, H2H, weekly locks, 13 hitters, 9 pitchers, 6 bench, 1 IL slot. How did I do out of the 9 hole? We can pick up max 7 off waivers up to 5 min before game time every week. Tomorrow is the first waiver wire date available.

3B Rafael Devers – BOS 1 (9)
1B Pete Alonso – NYM 2 (16)
OF Aaron Judge – NYY 3 (33)
OF Tyler O’Neill – STL 4 (40)
OF Julio Rodriguez – SEA 5 (57)
RP Liam Hendriks – CHW 6 (64)
CI Jared Walsh – LAA 7 (81)
SP Sean Manaea – OAK 8 (88)
SP Shane Baz – TB 9 (105)
SS Bobby Witt Jr. – KC 10 (112)
RP Jordan Romano – TOR 11 (129)
SP Ranger Suarez – PHI 12 (136)
OF Adolis Garcia – TEX 13 (153)
UT C.J. Cron – COL14 (160)
SS Luis Urias – MIL 15 (177)
SP Jordan Montgomery – NYY 16 (184)
SP Edward Cabrera – MIA 17 (201)
SP Roansy Contreras – PIT 18 (208)
OF Jesus Sanchez – MIA 19 (225)
MI Oneil Cruz – PIT 20 (232)
2B Jose Miranda – MIN 21 (249)
SP Elieser Hernandez – MIA 22 (256)
SP George Kirby – SEA 23 (273)
OF Riley Greene – DET 24 (280)
2B Vidal Brujan – TB 25 (297)
OF Connor Joe – COL 26 (304)
C MJ Melendez – KC 27 (321)
SP Reid Detmers – LAA 28 (328)

The team then is….

Melendez
Alonso
L Urias
Devers
Witt
Walsh
Oneil Cruz
Judge, O’Neill, Adolis, Sanchez, Connor Joe
Cron
Bench Brujan, Riley Greene, J-Rod, Miranda

SP Manaea, Baz, RSuarez, JoMo, EdCab, Elieser, Detmers
RP Hendriks, Romano
Bench Kirby, Roansy,

After spending a split second massaging my ego, tell me how I did. I really hope we have a full 162 game season. Your top 10 minus Seiya are all available in terms of FYPD picks. Also quite a few other prospects like

Alek Thomas
Tristan Casas
Austin Martin
CJ Abrams
G Moreno
Lodolo
H Greene
Cowser
Kreidler
C Santana
LButler
Wiemer
CMorris
Canterino
Walston
Eury
LoganT Allen
J Murray

and similar guys (the list is exhausting, actually.). Would you add any of them and over whom?

c. Norm MacDonald quote of the day for February 6, 2022

‘Washington power twosome Mary Matalin and James Carville (aka The Ragin’ Cajun) are expecting their first child in July. No one knows if the child will be democrat or republican but doctors are sure of one thing. The child will be weird-looking.’

d. Marx Brothers quote of the day for February 6, 2022

‘Be open minded, but not so open minded that your brain falls out.’

Cheers,
Ante

galica1234
galica1234
Reply to  The Itch
6 months ago

The Itch!

You’d be smart with a southern drawl. In our culture we say ‘there’s no fashion sense in the winter’ meaning you do everything you can to stay warm disregarding whether it’s stylish or not. Similarly, you’d take what you could get if he were your father.

Thanks for the kind words. I tried using Rudy’s war room but it doesn’t look like its geared for dynasty though as a barometer, Witt is #67 or something in Rudy’s room for redraft so getting him anywhere is a bonus. I’ll hold off on making moves until we roll closer to OD.

Thanks for all you do.

Cheers,
Ante

toolshed
toolshed
6 months ago

That index link is great. Thanks Itch!

toolshed
toolshed
Reply to  toolshed
6 months ago

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toolshed
toolshed
6 months ago

16 team dynasty. I’m about a year away from competing for a team I took over 2 years ago. Big hitting reinforcements on their way. Which 1 pitcher would you keep out of these 5: edward cabrera, Jack leiter (took him last year in a fypd), Daniel espino, David bednar (s+h), Mike Soroka. I have two upper tier closers who are in their prime. I’m not sure what do to with soroka. We keep 25 total. We’ll have a 5 rd draft coming up after our cuts. The league seems to favor pitching. I can possibly trade before the draft as well. But right now, I’m looking at worst case scenario where I have trim 4 of the 5 players. Thanks