So, how’s everyone holding up without fantasy baseball every day? I don’t know what to do with myself! This weekend I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Giancarlo Stanton for 2013. Then I laughed hysterically for a good twenty minutes until someone asked me to leave. We’ve gone over the final 2012 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters. There’s no more of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2013 fantasy baseball. You’re welcome. Well, there are Rudy’s recap of every fantasy sites projections that are coming on Thursday and Friday. Those should be fun! Hmm, why can’t I express enthusiasm without it sounding sarcastic? I’ll need to talk to my shrink about that. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2012 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
21. Kris Medlen – It’s not completely fair to have Medlen listed here when he gained a bunch of his overall value being a middle reliever. But who needs fair when we’re talking about Medlen? Guess who’s back? Back again… Medlen’s back, tell a friend…. Stupid, catchy Youtube video! I didn’t rank Medlen in the preseason, but, when he was put into the rotation, I gave him enough honest praise to make Dale Carnegie smile. Preseason Unranked, 2012 Projections: , Final Numbers: 10-1/1.57/0.91/120 in 138 IP
22. Yu Darvish – His biggest problem seems to be the heat of the Dallas summer. In April and September, his ERA was 2.20 in 69 2/3 inning. In May, June, July and August, his ERA was 4.87 in 121 2/3 IP. Preseason Rank #27, 2012 Projections: 14-7/3.60/1.10/190, Final Numbers: 16-9/3.90/1.28/221
23. Mat Latos – His biggest problem seems to be that he needs a good three months away from Dallas in heat. As with Zimmerman and Rios, I should’ve also trusted my preseason projections with Latos and never dropped him. Latos didn’t hurt me as badly because I simply picked up Medlen for about 70 innings. Preseason Rank #19, 2012 Projections: 16-10/3.50/1.20/200, Final Numbers: 14-4/3.48/1.16/185
24. A.J. Burnett – If I didn’t do my rankings in January and early February, I would’ve ranked and projected Burnett. He went to the Pirates just after I finished. Because it’s been almost three months since I gave this arbitrary stat, I’ll say it again. If you throw out Burnett’s 2 2/3 IP, 12 ER game vs. the Cards, his ERA on the year would’ve been 3.02. Unfortch, you can’t throw out random games from his stat line. The truly madly deeply shizzy thing was that start came three starts into his season so there’s a good chance he just got onto your team, the bomb hit and then you dropped him and missed a lot of his other (read: good) starts. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.51/1.24/180
25. Yovani Gallardo – The positive: he’s a workhorse. The negative: you’d prefer he’d miss some some of those 4 IP, 6 ER games. The positive: his ERA after April was 3.31. The negative: he can’t ever get his shizz together in April. The positive: his Ks were there again. The negative: his walks came back in a bad way this year, bumping a full walk per nine. The positive: he didn’t take a step forward in 2012 like I hoped. The negative: I didn’t have another positive so that last positive was a negative. Preseason Rank #11, 2012 Projections: 15-9/3.15/1.20/210, Final Numbers: 16-9/3.66/1.30/204
26. Wade Miley – He upped his strikeouts from 2011 (to 6.66, which is also Milton Bradley’s street address) and he cut his walks by two and a half per nine, which is huge. Wade-to-go-Miley! His peripherals don’t scream out as a guy that should’ve been awful, but he looks more like a number five fantasy starter that just gives you solid if unspectacular stats. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-11/3.33/1.18/144
27. Lance Lynn – In the 1st half, he had a 3.41 ERA and 4.32 in the 2nd half. He was far from useless in the 2nd half even with all my ranting about how you should drop him. I still think you could’ve found someone better in most mixed leagues for the final three months, especially since the Cards started limited his innings towards the end…Then they threw him as a starter in the playoffs, so I’m really not sure if they had a game plan in regards to that. The Cards seem like they can do no wrong with pitchers either way. Jaime goes down, Lohse goes up, Carpenter goes down, Wainwright goes up; it’s Dave Duncan’s leave-behind, The Escalator of Escalating Pitchers (say that fast 117 times!). Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 18-7/3.78/1.32/180
28. Matt Harrison – Here’s my theory: George Harrison did all that touchy-feely singing about My Sweet Lord and Hare Krishna, but since George is no longer with us, there’s some leftover karma floating around the universe for a Harrison, so Matt was able to beat his xFIP by almost a run and get 18 wins. Or not. Just a theory! Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 18-11/3.29/1.26/133
29. Cliff Lee – He never won a game where he allowed more than 2 runs. Shoot, he didn’t win a game where he threw ten shutout innings. He probably lost a game just because the scorekeeper couldn’t believe he won a game. Honestly, seriously, The Adverb might’ve needed more bad luck to only win 6 games than the good luck he would’ve needed for him to win 14 games. Somewhere, Murray Chass is saying hullabaloo to that. Preseason Rank #3, 2012 Projections: 18-8/2.50/1.05/215, Final Numbers: 6-9/3.16/1.11/207
30. Jordan Zimmermann – His 2012 K-rate, xFIP (3.78) and walk rate was almost identical to his 2011 numbers, which isn’t odd per se, but in 2011 he was returning from Tommy John surgery, so there was the thought (at least in one of my frontal lobes) that he would’ve gained more control and strikeouts this year. None of this is particularly wrong, he still had a solid season. Just love to see him get back a 9 K-rate like he had his rookie year when he also had a 3.35 xFIP. Hold on, January Grey is calling. January Grey, “Yo, OctoGrey, what’s the haps?! There’s time for him to get more Ks, J-Z is still young…Forever young…I wanna be…Forever young. That’s the joint, yo! Bee tee dubya, could you wire me five grand? February Grey wants me to place a bet on Lincecum becoming the closer. OctoGrey, you there? Hello?” Preseason Rank #22, 2012 Projections: 14-6/3.25/1.15/170, Final Numbers: 12-8/2.94/1.17/153
31. Jonathon Niese – Niese is a great example of why pitching is so abundant in shallower mixed leagues. Niese probably could’ve been picked up in most 12 team mixed leagues as late as June and he had a 3.01 ERA in the 2nd half. Again, with feeling: A guy that is the 31st best pitcher in baseball could’ve been picked up on waivers in June. There’s why you wait on pitching. Oh, the same could’ve been said of Medlen, Miley, Harrison, Vogelsong, Bailey…You get my point. Here’s a stat that is neither here nor there, but was interesting to me. Since he’s a lefty, managers sit their lefties vs. him, but lefties and righties have hit Niese nearly identically in the last 3 years (OPS .716 vs. lefties; .736 vs. righties). (Granted, the sample size for lefty hitters is smaller. That’s what she said! Huh?) Preseason Rank #67, 2012 Projections: 9-10/3.75/1.32/160, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.40/1.17/155
32. Ryan Vogelsong – See the first half of the blurb 1/8th of an inch above. Vogelsong was also one of those pitchers that was probably more valuable than his final stats tell us because he was good straight through the middle months when you could ride him, then when he got bad towards the end of the year, it was obvious and you could drop him. And that’s your Vogelsong. It may be quite simple but now that it’s done; I hope you don’t mind, I hope you don’t mind that I put it down in words. Preseason Rank #66, 2012 Projections: 10-9/3.75/1.26/140, Final Numbers: 14-9/3.37/1.23/158
33. Adam Wainwright – Definitely had a better season than I thought he would returning from surgery, but it wasn’t that much better than I thought. There was a good two month stretch in the beginning of the season that you didn’t want any part of him (4.56 ERA in the 1st half). His 2nd half was back to his usual dominant self when W’s ruled the airwaves with Full Fudd and Wainwright and WeWayne Wise were wheel wen and woys were woys. Preseason Rank #42, 2012 Projections: 12-7/3.75/1.28/140 in 160 innings, Final Numbers: 14-13/3.94/1.25/184 in 198 2/3 IP
34. Ian Kennedy – For full disclosure porpoises (they’re reading), I thought Kennedy would take a step back and told you to avoid him in the preseason, but I didn’t think he’d fall this hard. Here’s what I said in February, “He’ll be lucky to get 15 wins this year. Also, you throw in the fact he’s more of a 3.50 ERA pitcher than a 2.88 ERA that he was in 2011 and it’s yet another reason to avoid. Will he shat the bed? I guess it depends on what he eats, but I doubt it. He made improvements on his K-rate and walk rate, but I still don’t trust him for where he’s being drafted and won’t pay the price.” And that’s me quoting me! Preseason Rank #26, 2012 Projections: 15-10/3.50/1.12/180, Final Numbers: 15-12/4.02/1.30/187
35. Homer Bailey – Bailey is pretty much the opposite of Kennedy. I liked him in the preseason, but didn’t have this much faith in him. On a related note, there’s no way anyone in a 12 team mixed league got all of this value from Bailey, i.e., you might’ve owned him for 15 starts at most, you didn’t own him for every start. Don’t even lie. Preseason Rank #81, 2012 Projections: 12-9/3.70/1.28/130, Final Numbers: 13-10/3.68/1.24/168
36. Ryan Dempster – “Judge, I’d like to present my case for why I always try and go with NL starters when at all possible. My first witness is Ryan Dempster. Ryan, is it or is it not true that you were traded to the AL?” “Objection! Leading the witness!” “Okay, let me try a different tactic, Ryan, were you not better on the Cubs?” “Objection, your honor! The witness is not qualified to judge what’s ‘better.'” “Ryan, is your name Ryan?” “Objection! Only his parents can truly answer that.” “I rest my case.” Preseason Rank #70, 2012 Projections: 12-8/3.90/1.33/190, Final Numbers: 12-8/3.38/1.20/153
37. Jason Vargas – Member the days when we’d always have a token Hodgepadre? You’ll now have to settle for a Marginer. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 14-11/3.85/1.18/141
38. Phil Hughes – Probably the most surprising name to show up in the top 40. Well, that’s not to say Hughes’s name in itself is surprising to see, but it’s surprising to see him after seeing his stats. Those final stats don’t look like top 40 numbers to me. I’m guessing the Wins are propping him up. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 16-13/4.23/1.26/165
39. Chris Capuano – Capuano is the same deal as Vogelsong. He was great for a good three months, then when he was bad, it was obvious and you could’ve dropped him. So you didn’t have his whole season of stats, but your ratios from him were better. I hope you don’t mind, I hope you don’t mind– Okay, I’ll stop. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-12/3.72/1.22/162
40. Jarrod Parker – So, it wasn’t Brad Peacock or Tommy Milone that I touted endlessly in the preseason but his teammate, Parker. Honestly, I had quite a few missed calls this year, yet I still beat ESPN, CBS, SI, Fox and an array of other people when you compare my rankings and projections. Speaking of which, those comparisons are coming on Thursday and Friday from Rudy. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-8/3.47/1.26/140
