“Old soldiers never die, they just fade away.” — Tony LaRussa, probably.
The thing about being a historian is you carry the past with you. Like Tim O’Brien wrote in his most famous novel, Tomcat in Love…wait, is that the right book? Or was it that other Vietnam-themed book where it was all a dream? Oh, sorry, The Things They Carried. Yes, this one is for Lemon, who’s floating in the breeze out there. ENYWHEY. We carry the burdens of the past with us, etched upon our hearts, weighing heavy on our souls. As the immortal poet collective, Papa Roach once taught us, “The scars remind us that the past is real.” Funny, how that works for fantasy baseball. What you did in the past is both predictive of what you do in the future, but also completely detached from what’s going on in the present. “He’s changed,” we all whisper. “Velocity is down.” What, exactly, was the normal velocity? Do we all run 4-minute miles every year of our life? Or is it good enough to run 4.5 or 5-minute miles? Does it matter if we throw 96 or 94 or 25 or 6 to 4? And on and on it goes. Let’s jump over to the news and notes and find out which pitcher has me thinking so nostalgic.
News and Notes
Dallas Keuchel: DFA’d by the Chicago White Sox. You wanna know the fleetingness of prime talent? The 2015 Cy Young Award Winners were Dallas Keuchel (now unemployed) and Jake Arrieta (retired due to unemployment in early 2022). That said, these guys don’t need to work a day in their lives again — each of them brought home about $100 million over the course of their career. In 2022, Keuchel walked as many batters as he struck out and sported an ERA of nearly 8 with true skill stats above 5.00. We all like to joke that you or I could go out there and generate some whiffs, but after watching Andrelton Simmons freeze batters with a 45-MPH fastball, it does make us wonder how pitchers like Keuchel fell so far from the Cy Young tree. This is sort of a fantasy obituary for our dear Keuchel, who was last relevant in 2020 when he finished 5th in the Cy Young race (and maybe deep-league relevant in 2021). Can we learn anything from Keuchel’s decline? The closest comparison on the K/BB/HR-allowed chart is Ian Anderson. Yeesh. At least Anderson has a fastball that’s 6-7 MPH faster than Keuchel. Best wishes to our legacy fantasy lothario as Keuchel looks to revive his career, likely on the Rockies as a closer or something.
Robbie Ray: Can I go three weeks without mentioning my man? No, no I cannot. Last time I raised Ray’s name, it was in response to Coolwhip wondering if our man Jordache had given up the ghost. And to Whip I replied with nothing. Because I ghosted him! HAR HAR HAR. ENYWHEY. Since Whip last asked me if I was concerned about Ray and I said “no” and he said “prove it,” Ray has unleashed for a 14+ K/9, 3 BB/9, and a 2.52 xFIP, which I only mention because of the 5.32 ERA in the same period. Ugh. 12 readers, you know how I feel about ERA. None of the “runs responsible for” metrics are truly “the best,” but when you see the metrics in massive disagreement, you know there’s something un-lucky happening. In fact, Ray is one of the few pitchers who is generating more strikes by whiff than by called strike, and his big ERA is caused by an unexpected level of homers allowed over the past month. I mean, Ray is always a homer-magnet. Always has been. But when you’ve got a guy who is top 10 in the league in whiff rate (and indeed, has a 22% swinging strike rate since May 10, which is extraordinary) and is generating nearly 38% of his outs by himself, you’ve gotta pay attention to that. If Ray’s current repertoire continues through June, the ERA will normalize and we’ll be seeing Ray compete for his second consecutive Cy Young Award. Take that Keuchel!
Name | L30$/G | wK/9 | wPABIB | wL30FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|
Robbie Ray | -12.3 | -7.48% | 2.39% | 7.64% |
Sonny Gray: Here’s a list: Gerrit Cole, Clay Holmes, Keegan Akin, Sonny Gray, Aaron Nola, Spencer Strider. That list is the 13th-18th best CSW% generators in 2022. Cole and Nola are stalwarts, Holmes and Strider are newcomers, and Akin is the guy who kinda figured it out this year. Gray? He’s always been a good strike generator, but he struggles to put up lengthy runs of health due to his bad back. After the Twins acquired Gray from the Reds earlier this year, Gray spent time on the IL (expected) before coming back and pitching in short spurts as he recovered (also expected). But Gray’s 12.6 K/9 over the last month? Unexpected, my friends. His ERA and true skill stats align, and we’re looking at a crafty vet who is at the top of his game going into June. Problem is, we know Gray will miss some more time. He hasn’t topped 200 IP in 7 years, and the main projection systems view him as having 100 IP left in the tank for 2022. Enjoy Gray while he’s healthy, and let him start every matchup until he gets hurt again.
Name | L30$/G | wK/9 | wPABIB | wL30FIP |
---|---|---|---|---|
Sonny Gray | 24.5 | 4.35% | 2.69% | 53.43% |
Hyun-Jin Ryu: Came back! And then left again. Fresh off the IL, Ryu is dealing with elbow tightness…right after forearm tightness. Pitchers can be effective while dealing with those injuries (see Jacob deGrom in 2021), but we’re looking at a ticking timebomb with the usually reliable Ryu. In the pre-season I wrote about how Ryu had become a reliable option over the past few years as he neared the top of the charts in overall IP. Then, the lockout happened. Reports indicate that Ryu struggled with conditioning during the lockout and wasn’t fully ready for the reason, and now we’re seeing him pitch through the precursor injuries to Tommy John surgery. So, keep an eye on his health, and start him in favorable home league matchups and DFS. But you high stakes mavens? I’d find anybody other than Ryu right now.
Freddy Peralta: Gonna miss “significant time” but there’s no timetable on his return from a shoulder strain. These kinds of injuries go with the territory of the “reliever becoming a starter.” Flash backward (what am I, a tachyon?) to pre-2021. Peralta’s pitching career featured spot starts, but about 70% of his appearances were non-starters (hmmm, sounds sus). In 2021, Peralta made 27 starts and threw 144 innings, which was about 40% more than his career previous highs. Say what you want about modern pitchers, but the recent emphasis on spin and grip can take their toll on young pitchers who are still building strength year after year. Last year, Tyler Glasnow burned his elbow out in the matter of 3 starts while prepping for the sticky substance ban. Peralta’s high K rate (11+ in 2022, 12+ in 2021) shows that he’s worth stashing in dynasty leagues, but for those of you in best balls or 12 team formats, you might want to move on. Milwaukee is already indicating they’re going to be careful with Peralta — he’s only 26! He’s got a team option on his contract until 2026! Like, holy crap, what agent did that to Peralta? Best wishes to our favorite pitcher who saved everybody’s team in 2021, and maybe he’ll be back for a 2022 fantasy (or MLB?) playoff run. Also, it’s worth noting that his high ranking on the confidence scale is due to Rudy’s algorithm not yet adjusting for the “significant time missed” news; it will catch up next week once it’s updated.
Aaron Ashby: Supposedly, Ashby’s coming back to a starter role to replace Peralta. Ashby’s been all over the place this season, and he’s not really usable at this point for 12-teams unless you’re one of the bold players who doesn’t care about blowups (that’s me). There are some games where Ashby K’s everybody. There are some games where Ashby walks more than he Ks — and K’s a lot! Maybe I’m being too conservative here. Let’s think about the best possible outcome: Ashby has the ability to K over 11 per 9, which is all any fantasy manager can ask for in an elite starter. If a starter can K 11 per 9, a 3.5+ BB/9 becomes somewhat tolerable. Low IP becomes tolerable. My questionable usage of singular vs plural nouns becomes tolerable. So, logic friends: IFF Aaron Ashby continues a 10+ K/9 (and preferably 11+) as a starter, he’s rosterable everywhere. However, if we see Ashby dial back his repertoire as a starter — because starters need to pitch more IP and more IP means more efficiency with pitches and a guy who walks a lot of batters may need to resort to contact rather than trying to K everybody — then he sits on your bench. QED. Almost wrote “queso” there.
Sandy Alcantara: Something’s changing! Flash backward to the pre-season, and I was one of the more critical analysts on Alcantara, with good reason: over his career, his fantasy efficacy was very similar to Hyun-Jin Ryu. Alcantara had nearly 500 IP of sub-8 K/9 performance with a 3+ BB/9. Let’s pause here to comment: those are not the kinds of numbers that make you a fantasy champion. You know which pitchers had similar comps? Reynaldo Lopez, Chase Anderson, Jorge Lopez, Jordan Lyles, and Yusei Kikuchi. A veritable murder’s row! So, don’t come yelling at me about Alcantara — even mediocre pitchers can have hot streaks [stares at Martin Perez]. That said, Alcantara is changing his pitch mix a lot, and the results are 20%+ swinging strike rates over his last few games, with a 14K performance this past weekend. Those 14 strikeouts? Twice as many as any performance he’s had this year. Tied for his career-high — and he’s only K’d more than 10 batters in a game like 5 times in his career. I’m not trying to knock Alcantara because we’re seeing him make adjustments that could lead to him becoming elite. But, just like we can’t look at a high-strikeout performance from Kyle Hendricks and call it a renaissance, analysts can’t sit here and proclaim Alcantara as reborn. Even with the recent K success, Alcantara’s K/9 on the 2022 season stands at…8.4. Prior to the hot streak, his K/9 was 7.4 on the season with a 3.55 BB/9 with a pedestrian whiff rate of 11%. Best of luck to Sandy and I hope whatever he’s doing will stick. I’d love to be wrong about Alcantara. But right now, two games of performance isn’t sufficient to overturn years of data that describe him as a status quo pitcher.
The Rankings
Updated this week to add the team for each player. I think it’s worthwhile to add my usual addendum: ranking players over each other is kind of meaningless. Like, I’ve said this for two years while also topping the FantasyPros weekly football ranks four times in 2021. I understand why ranks are needed (TL;DR: To organize our thoughts) while similarly, I don’t actually use rankings myself. I’ve said this probably 100x over the course of my industry fantasy career. The point of the Confidence Score is to give players a shorthand, simple, quantifiable statement: this guy should be better than everybody below him. That’s it. In other words, I am more confident in this guy than everybody below him. But, like, a confidence score of 2.8 vs 2.6? That doesn’t really matter. 3.5 vs 3.4? Yeah, doesn’t matter. 3.5 vs 2.6? Yup, that matters. At a certain point, there’s decision paralysis when all the players are basically the same ranking. The takeaway is that, Somebody from the general range of scores is acceptable. Hope that helps clarify things.
Here’s how to use the list:
- Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS.
- Name/Team: Player name, player team
- Confidence: The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player in the near term.
- Own%: This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This % may vary depending on site and format for readers.
- L30$/G: This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates. Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games.
Tier | Name | Team | Confidence | Own% | L30$/G |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Shane McClanahan | TB | 4.258 | 100 | 43.3 |
1 | Shohei Ohtani | LAA | 4.249 | 100 | 12.7 |
1 | Freddy Peralta | MIL | 4.131 | 100 | 23.6 |
1 | Michael King | NYY | 4.102 | -8 | |
1 | Gerrit Cole | NYY | 4.101 | 100 | 27.4 |
1 | Aaron Nola | PHI | 3.997 | 100 | 5.4 |
1 | Carlos Rodon | SF | 3.986 | 100 | -42.9 |
1 | Cristian Javier | HOU | 3.977 | 100 | 11.3 |
1 | Dylan Cease | CHW | 3.837 | 100 | -9.3 |
1 | Kevin Gausman | TOR | 3.597 | 100 | 23.2 |
1 | Jesus Luzardo | MIA | 3.574 | 84 | -3.2 |
1 | Brandon Woodruff | MIL | 3.499 | 100 | 6 |
1 | Alex Cobb | SF | 3.467 | 86 | -39.7 |
1 | Tarik Skubal | DET | 3.366 | 100 | 17.9 |
1 | Zack Wheeler | PHI | 3.324 | 100 | 41.3 |
1 | Lucas Giolito | CHW | 3.297 | 100 | 10.8 |
1 | Nestor Cortes | NYY | 3.271 | 100 | 32.4 |
1 | Frankie Montas | OAK | 3.256 | 100 | -5.6 |
1 | Kyle Wright | ATL | 3.201 | 100 | -3.6 |
1 | Max Scherzer | NYM | 3.178 | 100 | 8.4 |
1 | Max Fried | ATL | 3.168 | 100 | -0.3 |
1 | Clayton Kershaw | LAD | 3.150 | 100 | 31.2 |
1 | Pablo Lopez | MIA | 3.076 | 100 | -6.3 |
1 | Carlos Carrasco | NYM | 3.067 | 100 | 5.1 |
1 | Corbin Burnes | MIL | 3.029 | 100 | 9.9 |
1 | MacKenzie Gore | SD | 3.020 | 100 | 0.1 |
1 | Zac Gallen | ARI | 3.019 | 100 | 21.4 |
1 | Joe Musgrove | SD | 3.004 | 100 | 27 |
1 | Drew Rasmussen | TB | 2.947 | 100 | 28.8 |
1 | Martin Perez | TEX | 2.946 | 98 | 37.1 |
1 | Tylor Megill | NYM | 2.922 | 95 | -40.5 |
1 | Shane Bieber | CLE | 2.896 | 100 | -22.3 |
1 | A.J. Minter | ATL | 2.861 | 20 | -2.7 |
1 | Yu Darvish | SD | 2.857 | 100 | 6.4 |
1 | Sean Manaea | SD | 2.853 | 100 | -20.3 |
1 | Michael Kopech | CHW | 2.853 | 100 | 12.2 |
1 | Kenley Jansen | ATL | 2.850 | 100 | 6.3 |
1 | Zach Eflin | PHI | 2.844 | 27 | -40.1 |
1 | Kyle Gibson | PHI | 2.837 | 77 | -31.4 |
1 | Spencer Strider | ATL | 2.833 | 57 | 8.2 |
1 | Garrett Whitlock | BOS | 2.831 | 100 | -38.6 |
1 | Alek Manoah | TOR | 2.831 | 100 | 22.7 |
1 | Robbie Ray | SEA | 2.824 | 100 | -12.3 |
1 | Justin Steele | CHC | 2.813 | 2 | -35.8 |
1 | Logan Gilbert | SEA | 2.807 | 100 | -16.6 |
1 | Eric Lauer | MIL | 2.803 | 100 | 32 |
2 | Sandy Alcantara | MIA | 2.795 | 100 | 30 |
2 | Jeffrey Springs | TB | 2.795 | 50 | 4.1 |
2 | Patrick Sandoval | LAA | 2.795 | 100 | -2.6 |
2 | Tyler Anderson | LAD | 2.782 | 100 | 19.2 |
2 | Tony Gonsolin | LAD | 2.781 | 100 | 43 |
2 | Logan Webb | SF | 2.773 | 100 | -10.4 |
2 | Paul Blackburn | OAK | 2.759 | 100 | 3.7 |
2 | Jameson Taillon | NYY | 2.758 | 100 | 21.8 |
2 | Joe Ryan | MIN | 2.752 | 100 | -9 |
2 | Marcus Stroman | CHC | 2.752 | 82 | 35.4 |
2 | Corey Kluber | TB | 2.747 | 55 | -11 |
2 | Tyler Mahle | CIN | 2.744 | 84 | -35.8 |
2 | Justin Wilson | CIN | 2.737 | ||
2 | Justin Verlander | HOU | 2.731 | 100 | 40 |
2 | Dane Dunning | TEX | 2.726 | 48 | -7.2 |
2 | Merrill Kelly | ARI | 2.724 | 61 | -28.5 |
2 | Ryan Helsley | STL | 2.717 | 100 | 12 |
2 | Keegan Akin | BAL | 2.704 | 3.6 | |
2 | Scott Effross | CHC | 2.701 | -4.9 | |
2 | Nick Pivetta | BOS | 2.698 | 86 | 35.1 |
2 | Alex Wood | SF | 2.697 | 84 | -43.1 |
2 | Miles Mikolas | STL | 2.692 | 100 | 9.5 |
2 | Walker Buehler | LAD | 2.650 | 100 | -5.6 |
2 | Devin Williams | MIL | 2.643 | 91 | 2.6 |
2 | Framber Valdez | HOU | 2.638 | 100 | 12.6 |
2 | Jason Adam | TB | 2.630 | 16 | -1.1 |
2 | Enyel De Los Santos | CLE | 2.610 | -20.6 | |
2 | JT Brubaker | PIT | 2.609 | 14 | -19.5 |
2 | Steven Matz | STL | 2.605 | 32 | -21.4 |
2 | Alex Vesia | LAD | 2.603 | 2 | -7.2 |
2 | Tanner Houck | BOS | 2.600 | 34 | -21.2 |
2 | Hunter Greene | CIN | 2.588 | 55 | -39 |
2 | Triston McKenzie | CLE | 2.579 | 100 | 38.4 |
2 | Aaron Ashby | MIL | 2.577 | 100 | -16.9 |
2 | Luis Severino | NYY | 2.572 | 100 | 0.5 |
2 | Wil Crowe | PIT | 2.563 | 7 | -6 |
2 | Alex Lange | DET | 2.560 | 1 | |
2 | Eli Morgan | CLE | 2.543 | -2.5 | |
2 | Sam Hentges | CLE | 2.537 | -1.1 | |
2 | Victor Arano | WSH | 2.536 | -9.7 | |
2 | Jose Quintana | PIT | 2.531 | 7 | 7.1 |
2 | Ron Marinaccio | NYY | 2.528 | -10.6 | |
2 | John Brebbia | SF | 2.526 | -3.2 | |
2 | Parker Mushinski | HOU | 2.526 | 11.6 | |
2 | David Bednar | PIT | 2.524 | 100 | 6.3 |
2 | Jordan Montgomery | NYY | 2.522 | 100 | -23.1 |
2 | Matt Strahm | BOS | 2.515 | 2 | -3.3 |
2 | Jon Gray | TEX | 2.511 | 36 | -32 |
2 | J.P. Feyereisen | TB | 2.498 | 30 | 7.5 |
2 | Clay Holmes | NYY | 2.488 | 100 | 7.7 |
2 | Zach Jackson | OAK | 2.486 | -4.9 | |
2 | Penn Murfee | SEA | 2.478 | -2.9 | |
2 | Josh Hader | MIL | 2.474 | 100 | 7.5 |
2 | Giovanny Gallegos | STL | 2.474 | 100 | 1.6 |
2 | Kyle Nelson | ARI | 2.469 | -2.8 | |
2 | Luis Garcia | HOU | 2.469 | 100 | 5.8 |
2 | Luis Garcia | HOU | 2.469 | 100 | 5.8 |
2 | Trevor Stephan | CLE | 2.455 | 2 | -6.6 |
2 | Dylan Bundy | MIN | 2.450 | 32 | -67 |
2 | Jordan Lyles | BAL | 2.449 | 5 | -11.9 |
2 | Jimmy Herget | LAA | 2.439 | 2 | 2.9 |
2 | JT Chargois | TB | 2.433 | ||
2 | Jovani Moran | MIN | 2.432 | 1.4 | |
2 | Andrew Heaney | LAD | 2.429 | 75 | |
2 | Kyle Freeland | COL | 2.427 | 9 | -22.6 |
2 | Taylor Rogers | SD | 2.424 | 100 | 5.8 |
2 | Chris Paddack | MIN | 2.421 | 2 | -10.7 |
2 | Keegan Thompson | CHC | 2.421 | 23 | 1.9 |
2 | Jared Solomon | CIN | 2.418 | -6.4 | |
2 | Erik Swanson | SEA | 2.416 | -6.4 | |
2 | Daulton Jefferies | OAK | 2.415 | 5 | -70.9 |
2 | Adam Ottavino | NYM | 2.414 | -6.8 | |
2 | Hector Neris | HOU | 2.414 | 2 | -6 |
2 | Edwin Diaz | NYM | 2.411 | 100 | 1 |
2 | Bryan Abreu | HOU | 2.410 | -7.9 | |
2 | Evan Phillips | LAD | 2.404 | -7 | |
2 | Cody Stashak | MIN | 2.398 | 3.4 | |
2 | Noah Syndergaard | LAA | 2.397 | 100 | -9.9 |
2 | Sam Selman | OAK | 2.396 | ||
2 | Dany Jimenez | OAK | 2.390 | 100 | -1.4 |
2 | Jordan Romano | TOR | 2.388 | 100 | 0.8 |
2 | Chris Bassitt | NYM | 2.386 | 100 | -35.8 |
2 | Seranthony Dominguez | PHI | 2.378 | 2 | -3.5 |
2 | Brady Singer | KC | 2.370 | 48 | 43.7 |
2 | Will Vest | DET | 2.366 | 2 | 0.5 |
2 | Raisel Iglesias | LAA | 2.361 | 100 | -4 |
2 | Eduardo Rodriguez | DET | 2.359 | 68 | -22.8 |
2 | Adrian Houser | MIL | 2.349 | 36 | -19.6 |
2 | Daniel Bard | COL | 2.345 | 100 | 1.1 |
2 | Andrew Chafin | DET | 2.341 | -5.5 | |
2 | Josh Staumont | KC | 2.340 | 20 | -3.4 |
2 | Tyler Kinley | COL | 2.328 | -3.6 | |
2 | Daniel Hudson | LAD | 2.326 | 9 | -0.6 |
2 | Liam Hendriks | CHW | 2.325 | 100 | 5.6 |
2 | Cole Sands | MIN | 2.324 | -7.8 | |
2 | Jake Odorizzi | HOU | 2.322 | 5 | 43.8 |
2 | Sonny Gray | MIN | 2.319 | 100 | 24.5 |
2 | Jhoan Duran | MIN | 2.317 | 100 | 2 |
2 | Austin Gomber | COL | 2.309 | 16 | -43.9 |
2 | Chad Kuhl | COL | 2.307 | 25 | -28.6 |
2 | Jakob Junis | SF | 2.304 | 7 | -11.7 |
2 | Daniel Lynch | KC | 2.301 | 7 | -39.7 |
2 | Colin Holderman | NYM | 2.300 | 4.1 | |
2 | Joel Kuhnel | CIN | 2.300 | -2.8 | |
2 | Brooks Raley | TB | 2.299 | 59 | -4.5 |
2 | Zack Greinke | KC | 2.298 | 27 | -52.5 |
2 | Yusei Kikuchi | TOR | 2.297 | 80 | 6.7 |
2 | Collin McHugh | ATL | 2.288 | 2 | -8.6 |
2 | Patrick Corbin | WSH | 2.285 | 11 | -30.5 |
2 | Emmanuel Clase | CLE | 2.285 | 100 | 2.5 |
2 | Nathan Eovaldi | BOS | 2.284 | 100 | -12.5 |
2 | Pierce Johnson | SD | 2.275 | 2 | |
2 | German Marquez | COL | 2.274 | 61 | -54.7 |
2 | Anthony Bass | MIA | 2.256 | 7 | -5.6 |
2 | Tyler Wells | BAL | 2.254 | -14 | |
2 | Brandon Hughes | CHC | 2.253 | -2.3 | |
2 | Charlie Morton | ATL | 2.250 | 100 | -13.9 |
2 | David Robertson | CHC | 2.249 | 100 | -3.9 |
2 | Sean Doolittle | WSH | 2.246 | ||
2 | Rafael Montero | HOU | 2.242 | 36 | -3 |
2 | Erick Fedde | WSH | 2.237 | 2.9 | |
2 | Aaron Civale | CLE | 2.232 | 27 | -28.2 |
2 | Craig Kimbrel | LAD | 2.232 | 100 | -3.9 |
2 | Bryan Baker | BAL | 2.226 | -10.2 | |
2 | Duane Underwood Jr. | PIT | 2.224 | -5.8 | |
2 | Alexis Diaz | CIN | 2.224 | 18 | 1.4 |
2 | Tanner Rainey | WSH | 2.224 | 95 | -4.3 |
2 | Bruce Zimmermann | BAL | 2.217 | -22.1 | |
2 | Joe Jimenez | DET | 2.215 | -6.6 | |
2 | Nick Martinez | SD | 2.213 | 5 | 0.1 |
2 | Seth Lugo | NYM | 2.210 | -5.1 | |
2 | Adam Wainwright | STL | 2.208 | 100 | 7 |
2 | John Schreiber | BOS | 2.206 | 9 | 3.3 |
2 | Joe Mantiply | ARI | 2.194 | 5 | -1.3 |
2 | Julian Merryweather | TOR | 2.190 | -11 | |
2 | Amir Garrett | KC | 2.189 | -10.9 | |
2 | A.J. Puk | OAK | 2.189 | 18 | -1.6 |
2 | Michael Lorenzen | LAA | 2.189 | 64 | 11.6 |
2 | Rich Hill | BOS | 2.179 | 2 | -5.8 |
2 | Bryse Wilson | PIT | 2.178 | -85.1 | |
2 | Brock Burke | TEX | 2.174 | 25 | -7.1 |
2 | Chris Martin | CHC | 2.172 | -8.7 | |
2 | Joely Rodriguez | NYM | 2.172 | -7.3 | |
2 | Mitch Keller | PIT | 2.166 | -39.2 | |
2 | Dillon Peters | PIT | 2.164 | -11.1 | |
2 | Rony Garcia | DET | 2.163 | -8.7 | |
2 | Carl Edwards Jr. | WSH | 2.156 | -20.7 | |
2 | Trevor Rogers | MIA | 2.156 | 91 | -19 |
2 | Cal Quantrill | CLE | 2.155 | 36 | -25.8 |
2 | Paul Sewald | SEA | 2.153 | 98 | -0.2 |
2 | Reid Detmers | LAA | 2.149 | 18 | 3.1 |
2 | Trevor Gott | MIL | 2.149 | -6.1 | |
2 | Reynaldo Lopez | CHW | 2.147 | 2 | 0.4 |
2 | Ryan Feltner | COL | 2.145 | -6.6 | |
2 | Jackson Stephens | ATL | 2.133 | 2.5 | |
2 | Josiah Gray | WSH | 2.129 | 73 | -31.3 |
2 | Brad Keller | KC | 2.124 | 23 | -38 |
2 | Kyle Bradish | BAL | 2.122 | -49.7 | |
2 | Chasen Shreve | NYM | 2.122 | -12.1 | |
2 | Sam Moll | OAK | 2.121 | 0.3 | |
2 | Kyle Finnegan | WSH | 2.120 | 2 | -8.2 |
2 | Cole Sulser | MIA | 2.116 | 16 | -5 |
2 | Matt Foster | CHW | 2.114 | -7.1 | |
2 | Aaron Loup | LAA | 2.114 | -12.3 | |
2 | George Kirby | SEA | 2.113 | 82 | -28.7 |
2 | Jalen Beeks | TB | 2.107 | 5 | -3.4 |
2 | Kervin Castro | SF | 2.106 | -58.8 | |
2 | Jose Berrios | TOR | 2.104 | 100 | -23.8 |
2 | Luis Castillo | CIN | 2.100 | 100 | -13.9 |
2 | Bailey Ober | MIN | 2.096 | 86 | -32.3 |
2 | Mike Clevinger | SD | 2.094 | 77 | -2.5 |
2 | Jeff Hoffman | CIN | 2.093 | -2.4 | |
2 | Phillips Valdez | BOS | 2.091 | -27.1 | |
2 | Ranger Suarez | PHI | 2.086 | 45 | -24.7 |
2 | Chad Green | NYY | 2.080 | 7 | 0 |
2 | Nick Vespi | BAL | 2.079 | 28.1 | |
2 | Ian Anderson | ATL | 2.078 | 100 | -18.8 |
2 | Julio Urias | LAD | 2.070 | 100 | 1.9 |
2 | Jordan Hicks | STL | 2.068 | 9 | -42.4 |
2 | Trevor Williams | NYM | 2.067 | -11 | |
2 | Jake Walsh | STL | 2.067 | -15.3 | |
2 | Vince Velasquez | CHW | 2.061 | -12.7 | |
2 | Corbin Martin | ARI | 2.061 | -24.4 | |
2 | Matt Moore | TEX | 2.059 | -3.7 | |
2 | Camilo Doval | SF | 2.055 | 100 | -2.3 |
2 | Joan Adon | WSH | 2.052 | -53.1 | |
2 | Lou Trivino | OAK | 2.048 | 14 | -9.9 |
2 | Phoenix Sanders | TB | 2.041 | 2.9 | |
2 | Taylor Hearn | TEX | 2.040 | -11.5 | |
2 | Humberto Castellanos | ARI | 2.039 | -34.6 | |
2 | Chris Stratton | PIT | 2.039 | 2 | -7.5 |
2 | Brett Martin | TEX | 2.039 | -8 | |
2 | Jose Urquidy | HOU | 2.038 | -6.1 | |
2 | Tim Mayza | TOR | 2.037 | -4 | |
2 | Jhon Romero | MIN | 2.036 | ||
2 | Konnor Pilkington | CLE | 2.035 | 2 | -64.9 |
2 | Steven Okert | MIA | 2.032 | -7.4 | |
2 | Kyle Barraclough | LAA | 2.032 | -3.5 | |
2 | Dominic Leone | SF | 2.030 | -3 | |
2 | Josh Winder | MIN | 2.028 | 11 | -9.2 |
2 | Jackson Kowar | KC | 2.028 | ||
2 | Cole Irvin | OAK | 2.017 | 16 | -27.1 |
2 | Stephen Nogosek | NYM | 2.016 | 8.3 | |
2 | Roansy Contreras | PIT | 2.016 | 75 | 10.5 |
2 | Taijuan Walker | NYM | 2.012 | 23 | -11.4 |
2 | Ross Stripling | TOR | 2.010 | -37.1 | |
2 | Zach Thompson | PIT | 2.001 | -7.8 | |
2 | Anderson Severino | CHW | 2.000 | -6.4 | |
3 | David McKay | NYY | 1.997 | 0.6 | |
3 | Corey Knebel | PHI | 1.993 | 100 | -2.7 |
3 | Nabil Crismatt | SD | 1.983 | -6.8 | |
3 | Noe Ramirez | ARI | 1.981 | -6 | |
3 | Caleb Thielbar | MIN | 1.975 | 2 | -2.6 |
3 | Rowan Wick | CHC | 1.967 | 20 | -7.9 |
3 | Tanner Scott | MIA | 1.964 | -7.7 | |
3 | Archie Bradley | LAA | 1.963 | -0.1 | |
3 | Glenn Otto | TEX | 1.962 | -44.9 | |
3 | Jorge Lopez | BAL | 1.960 | 100 | 0.1 |
3 | Hunter Harvey | WSH | 1.957 | ||
3 | Jesse Chavez | ATL | 1.955 | -13.5 | |
3 | Tyler Duffey | MIN | 1.951 | 9 | -5.6 |
3 | Brad Boxberger | MIL | 1.951 | 2 | -9.9 |
3 | Garrett Cleavinger | LAD | 1.947 | 2.8 | |
3 | Nick Nelson | PHI | 1.945 | -30 | |
3 | Zach Davies | ARI | 1.944 | -25.5 | |
3 | David Phelps | TOR | 1.940 | -8.6 | |
3 | Michael Wacha | BOS | 1.940 | 39 | -23.3 |
3 | Lucas Luetge | NYY | 1.927 | -11 | |
3 | Zach Plesac | CLE | 1.927 | 30 | -63.2 |
3 | Davis Martin | CHW | 1.924 | -1.8 | |
3 | Anthony Kay | TOR | 1.923 | ||
3 | Chris Flexen | SEA | 1.919 | 7 | -40.6 |
3 | Joel Payamps | KC | 1.918 | -5.7 | |
3 | Andrew Bellatti | PHI | 1.916 | -5.3 | |
3 | Elieser Hernandez | MIA | 1.910 | 14 | -28.8 |
3 | Austin Davis | BOS | 1.907 | -1.8 | |
3 | Robert Dugger | FA | 1.903 | -18.6 | |
3 | Adam Cimber | TOR | 1.898 | 45 | -4.6 |
3 | Steven Wilson | SD | 1.897 | -3.2 | |
3 | Diego Castillo | SEA | 1.890 | 20 | -18.2 |
3 | Dennis Santana | TEX | 1.890 | 2.6 | |
3 | Kyle Hendricks | CHC | 1.889 | 61 | -45.3 |
3 | Andres Munoz | SEA | 1.889 | 5 | -14.1 |
3 | Drew Smyly | CHC | 1.883 | -36.3 | |
3 | Blake Treinen | LAD | 1.882 | 16 | |
3 | Daniel Norris | CHC | 1.879 | -7.1 | |
3 | Hoby Milner | MIL | 1.879 | -5.6 | |
3 | Kendall Graveman | CHW | 1.861 | 7 | -8.1 |
3 | Justin Lawrence | COL | 1.859 | -20.1 | |
3 | Joe Kelly | CHW | 1.855 | -15.4 | |
3 | Robert Suarez | SD | 1.843 | 2 | -2.1 |
3 | Steve Cishek | WSH | 1.840 | -6.1 | |
3 | David Peterson | NYM | 1.839 | 20 | 26 |
3 | Yency Almonte | LAD | 1.834 | -3.9 | |
3 | Zach Pop | MIA | 1.832 | -27.6 | |
3 | Anthony Banda | PIT | 1.825 | -15.3 | |
3 | Jose Alvarado | PHI | 1.822 | -15.8 | |
3 | Tyler Rogers | SF | 1.822 | -20.5 | |
3 | Michael Rucker | CHC | 1.818 | -9.2 | |
3 | Jake Cousins | MIL | 1.816 | -3.9 | |
3 | Madison Bumgarner | ARI | 1.816 | 25 | -20.1 |
We’re lost without week 9 from everywhereblair! All the witty quips and and finally tuned statistics! Hope everything is ok and all is well.
Hi Blair,
I so enjoy your help and details. I can’t wait for your analysis and assistance!
1. I picked up Konnor Pilkington and waived Merrill Kelly. Would you try and get back Kelly of waivers? If the answer is yes, who would you cut from the list below?
2. There is a lot of fantasy chat about pro and con about Cinns Graham Ashcraft, His next two starts are against AZ and the Cards. Would you pick him up and if you say yes, who would you waive from the list below? Would you start him against both the Diamondbacks and the Cards?
3. The next two starts of the Cards’ Mikolasis at TB and home against Pitt. I was going to sit him against TB and start him against Pitt. Do you agree?
Corbin Barnes
Pablo Lopez
Cristian Javier
Tyler Anderson
Freddy Peralta (IL)
Paul Blackburn
Mike Mikolas
Aaron Ashby
Mike Cleavinger
Nick Pivetta
Jeffery Springs
Thanks so much for taking your time!
I know you didn’t ask me, but just an outside opinion. I wouldn’t drop any of those guys for Ashcroft. But I would drop Pilkington to get Kelly back.. but if you’re set on keeping him my next pick would be Clevinger for Kelly. But would definitely consider reversing that original move of dropping Kelly for pinkington. Hope that helps and I’m not stepping on anyones toes. But my opinion is based on Blair’s confidence list. Hope you and your team are doing well this week. And good looking pitching staff.
Sorry to add one more question on here. I know you don’t like to compare players that have limited or no stats, but… I have Baz on the IL and I’ll have to drop someone very soon when he comes back. Just ballparking, do you think he’s worth a gamble. The guys on the chopping block are Blackburn, McKenzie, possibly Pivetta (but not the way he’s performing at the moment) and Bassitt. Gore is also available. (It’s a smaller league) I’m guessing you’d recommend I drop one of those for Gore also, probably Bassit? So to sum it up Gore is available, and I got Baz coming off the IL. With those guys on the bottom of my rotation, what are your thoughts? My apologies for another long message . I just can’t make a decision and pull the trigger on this. Thanks for your all of help.
No prob! Baz was one of my pre-season highlights and I’d go far out of my way to keep him on your team. Of course, Rays could do Rays things and keep him on a tight leash after injury, but all things considered, I’d want Baz on my team ahead of most of those guys and a number of other “top” pitchers.
Gore is SP20 on the year and that’s with barely above average win luck, and he decimated batters through May with ace-quality stats. I’d drop everybody on that list to get Gore. Pivetta/Bassitt would be my choice to drop of that list. Good luck!
Like always, extremely helpful. Thank you very much. Made things much easier for me. Thank you again for all you do.
Thanks again for your rankings and advice and all the time you put into them. I know you’re big on Whitlock. I don’t know if you remember me from a month ago I traded too high a price for him with Alcantara. Boy is that stinging now! But right now I can’t trust starting him, he’s my weak link in my rotation. My question is I am really considering adding Pivetta with his 5 straight very good outings but it would have to be for Whitlock. I’d like to know your thoughts. Thank you
Hey Brian! Yeah, so it goes sometimes. The thing about Alcantara, is he’s renowned for his fastball, and he has cut that fastball usage by nearly 20% in the past few weeks. Anybody saying “I told ya so!” can’t really say they knew the fastball guy was going to dramatically change his pitch mix and throw a ton of sliders, right? Anyway. Pivetta. My good friend Corbin loves Pivetta. I couldn’t care less for Pivetta. That sub-8 K/9 group just doesn’t have a stellar track record. What Pivetta’s doing really well right now is *not* walking batters, which is a confidence booster from the start of the year where he was walking as many batters as he K’d. But on the flipside is Whitlock — who was reaching nearly 20 K/9 in the beginning of the season! And now he just went 6 iP with [checks notes] 0 strikeouts. Like, that’s wild. Whitlock’s swinging strike percentage precipitously dropped as well, and his fastball has dropped nearly 2 MPH. So, either he’s hurt or he’s tired. In a keep forever, Whitlock obviously has the upside advantage, but there’s something wrong under the hood with Whitlock right now, and I wouldn’t be angry if you moved on for Pivetta.
I knew I came to the right place for sound advice! Thank you very much. And thanks again for the time you put into this and your replies.
And I would love to hear your thoughts on the Cardinals’s Zack Thompson
SVHLD League
Michael King and Matt Strahm are available. Would you add over Chris Stratton and Trevor Gott?
King over Stratton
Peralta shouldn’t be on your list?
Might want to get current to what’s really happening in the pitching world.
Sorry!
Did you read the 700 words I wrote on Freddy Peralta being injured, what to do with him, why he’s still on the list, and a review of his replacement in Aaron Ashby? I’m not trying to be rude, but before you come with the heat, you might want to, you know, look at the article.
You do a great job EverywhereBlair. Just our “Title” throws off the list
Great stuff EWB – really enjoy your posts!
Thanks for the support!
To the other readers. Just a comment on the approach that I take regarding this article.
Before looking at this article, I do a search of available pitchers, going back 30 days and then 14 days (that helps me find current trends I might miss otherwise). Starters, but if all terrible options (crazy bad ERAs or bad WHIPs), then Relievers.
Then I compare to see if the pitchers I pinpointed are found within Tier 1 or Tier 2 of the most up to date version of EWB’s article.
Afterwards, I also do a quick comparison on pitchers I hadn’t seen in my league’s free agent list, but found in Tier 1 and Tier 2 of EWB’s list. There always seems to be a few diamonds in the rough that I would have otherwise missed.
This method has really worked well in the one serious league I use it in. I’ve got a really strong pitching staff, but even better, I’ll be able to trade away some pitching for better hitting when some of my injured pitchers return shortly. In some cases, I’ll be keeping the players I picked up through this process.
Just my way of doing it. But put in some effort if you’re serious about winning. And winning is always much more fun than having an average middle of the pack team.
Thanks for the write-up as always, EWB.
Jolt
Thanks for the support Jolt!
I think one thing that the fantasy community/industry has failed to recognize, is that we’re all just playing with “likelihood.” Gerrit Cole is likely to perform within a certain set of parameters, and that set of parameters is different than, say, Antonio Senzatela. But can Senzatela have periods of fantasy utility that surpass Cole? Absolutely! But just like a financial market, this stuff is almost impossible to time. Which is why legit players develop their own system.
Even with Rudy’s premium tools, I have my own modifications based on what I need. The key selling point about Razzball tools is that they auto-update, and that they’re downloadable. I can create my own Excel/Sheets template, toss in Rudy’s raw data, and then output my own needs.
Because, if everybody’s using the same rankings and those rankings fail — because all rankings are more wrong than they are right — then the one-eyed man is king in the land of the blind.
Blair,
Thank you for the article and the thorough rankings. Your work is much appreciated. So, question for you. I am looking to move a solid batting piece for a pitching upgrade. Do you think sending Justin Turner in return for Triston McKenzie would be a good move? Thanks brother!
Hey PCP!
In a dynasty, I definitely do that trade. In a normal league, I’m fine with McKenzie — he has the ability for upside K, but that just needs to develop consistently. He’s extremely young and will learn, but the question is — will he be doing 9+ K/9 come the 2022 fantasy playoffs? Maybe. I’d go for the trade. Good luck!
Hi Blair,
thanks for your help and detailed responses.
1. Thoughts on Blackburn and when to use him?
2. Thoughts on Mikolas and when to use him?
3. thoughts David Peterson?
4. The following pitchers are available:
Spencer Strider of the Braves, Matt Swarmer of Cc, Mike Clevinger of SD and Glenn Otto.
would you drop Blackburn, Mikolas or Peterson and who would you pick up?
thanks so much!!
Hey Martin!
Blackburn/Mikolas/Peterson all kind of mesh together, but Blackburn has had the weirdest ability to limit damage. That said, “limiting damage” isn’t a great hallmark for a fantasy pitcher — we want pitchers that strikeout batters. So, Clevinger comes in with the highest ceiling as a replacement, but he’s obviously incredibly volatile due to the injuries/return from injury. Strider in a starting role could be awesome…but he needs to adjust to that. So, if you’re patient, try Clevinger (5 IP last outing), and if you’re bold, try Strider, and if you want to play it safe, stick with the other guys. Good luck!
I so appreciate these detailed answers!
I was going to go with Clevinger. Among Blackburn/Mikolas/Peterson, who would you waive?
Thanks again!
We all appreciate your table and the work that goes into preparing it.
Martin
What do you think Mike King’s greatest strength for fantasy moving forward? ratios, saves, holds, vulture wins?
The greatest impact would be if the Yankees return to his previous role when he did spot starting…and preferably full time starting. The most valuable aspect of pitching is that true starter role, and if King can claim a spot like Cortes did (Cortes was a Roleless Rob in 2021), then his fantasy value could skyrocket.
Would you take away Kopech for Ray?
Ray has significantly more track record than Kopech, so for almost all formats, I would trust Ray over Kopech this year. In a dynasty, I’d have second thoughts, but would still keep Ray over Kopech in most situations.
What is your take on Jeffery Springs? He’s been looking pretty good.
He did this “really good” thing last year before getting injured. He’s got a great K/9 rate and getting some legit reps to start could accelerate his value as a starter a ton. If he’s healthy, keep starting!
This is probably the most frustrating fantasy article to read. Just such weird rankings. HUGE tiers. Random relief pitchers,etc. Not sure how anyone would use this better themselves at fantasy baseball (and isn’t that the point?).
Thanks. Weeks of explanation in the article history if you’d like to check it out.
I was (a little) surprised how your rankings are fairly stable. For example, Whitlock and King had problems with past week yet each has still retained its high Tier-1 rank.
Also why isn’t Helesly ranked near the top? No one’s been more effective so far. He’s averaging about 15K/9, his WHIP is 0.35, and he has not yet given up a run. I assume his limited innings (16. ~ 0.3/game is the reason).
Indeed, the sustenance of “goodness” should keep top-ish pitchers near the top. Helsely is way below the IP cutline, and Michael King is about the only Roleless Rob above the IP cutline right now (by 2/3 of an IP at last check). Helesly is way down based on that reliever-only poison pill that I have in the ranking system.
Can someone explain why there are so many non-starters listed??
Weeks of explanation in the post history. These “Roleless Robs” are there to help fantasy managers (particularly RCL players) with ratios and to help find potential “next man up” starters.
How is Kershaw tier 1? He isn’t coming back this week as far as I can see
Confidence Score has always been about if the pitcher takes the mound, what level of confidence do I have in them. Rudy’s algorithm has Kershaw for 16 games remaining on the season, and the score reflects that. If that expected games remaining changes, the score will change along with that. Thanks!
Can you explain the Luzardo ranking? Is his tier one ranking only taking into account YTD stats without consideration of the uncertainty of his return?
Correct. Rudy’s algorithm still has him slated for 15 games started on the rest of season, so when Rudy changes it (and Rudy’s one of the top playing time predictors out there), my ranking will change along with that. Thanks!
16 GS for Kershaw ROS seems about right to me. He isn’t due back until late June and that would give him close to 5 starts per month.
Don’t think Dodgers will need to push Kershaw at all to make the playoffs.
Hi Blair,
i so look forward to these rankings and your comments!
1. i am starting Miami’s Lopez on the road at Colorado? Do you agree?
2. i am sitting Paul Blackburn against Houston. Do you agree?
3. i am sitting the Mets David Peterson at home against Wash. Do you agree?
4. would you still keep Mike Mikolas? His next start is Wrigley Field. would you start him?
Thanks so much!!!
martin
Hey Martin!
Yeah, I don’t worry about Colorado so much, so Lopez is fine to start there.
Blackburn is 50/50 — certainly he’s the typical pitcher to sit against a team that can actually hit. If you’re desperate, give him a start, otherwise let him rest.
Peterson vs WAS is an OK start. I’d start him.
Mikolas’ underlying numbers are actually improving, although he’s still a bottom-of-the-barrel starting option. If you are desperate, start him, otherwise let him sit. Good luck!
thanks!!