Happy Monday, Razzball faithful!
It’s been…one week…
It’s in my head. Every time I hear it or type it. And they’re Canadian. So…sorrey.
Let’s try that one again. It’s been one week (ahem) since we started rolling out the preseason content! I hope everyone has enjoyed the boost in baseball reading since last Monday as much as I have.
For today, I’ll apologize to those who want to see my Top 100 list already. I did not plan on releasing my list until I could go through a few more dives on names, rankings, and Bryan Woo health reports. That, and I don’t want to jump out in front of our Fantasy Master Lothario’s SP rankings, so y’all gonna have to be patient.
What should be provided on this ‘listless’ Monday afternoon? Well, I have a few things to start with.
I want to share a link to Mike and Jeremy’s Cards & Categories pod from last week. In it, we cover the details of the AL East preview and discuss several players in detail.
The next thing I want to share with you is the link to Rudy’s toolbox for 2025. If you haven’t signed up for it, this should be your go-to reference for the entire season. It will save you a lot of time researching and often includes those “Oh, I never thought about that” solutions. The Razzball subscriptions are well worth the price of admission. If you’re serious about improving throughout the season and getting ahead of your competition even before draft season starts, check the link, yo!
For this week, I’ll be putting my list from my final Top 100 Starting Pitchers article for 2024 up beside the 2025 Preseason Player Rater and doing a bit of preparation groundwork for my new list. If you’re asking yourself, “How much can really change from the end of September to January?”, I’ve got news for you. At first glance, it’s A LOT.
An introduction for the new folks: I’ll give a quick rundown of how I organized the write-ups last year and use each of my writing sections this week to outline what stood out when I compared and contrasted the two lists.
As a quick heads up, the players will have their Preseason ranking from the 2025 Player Rater listed, then their final ranking from my September article last year in parentheses.
The Top 100 Starting Pitchers sub-sections (ooh, that sounds official)
THE BIGGEST JUMPERS
These are the players who were on the list (at any point in the 2024 season) and because of recent successes or events, found themselves moving up the list from their previous position.
Today, I picked a few names who moved up quite a bit (or at least a little bit) from last year to this Spring. If I were a fantasy player who targeted big-name starters in the first few rounds, I’d be looking at these ‘jumpers’ to build around.
Paul Skenes 1 (4)
Ok, so it wouldn’t be me if I didn’t go through a lengthy explanation to ensure you had more information than you really needed in order to follow this process, then immediately buckle to my attention-deficit issues and perform a giant zig-zag. First and foremost, Paul Skenes is NOT one of the biggest jumpers from the final article to the 2025 preseason Player Rater rankings. But, (time to turn the boat around in the Allegheny River!), this jumper is more about how much he launched himself into the stratosphere in fewer than 12 months.
Did we know how great a pitcher Skenes was going to eventually become when we were writing our notes for spring training 2024? Yes. Did some people in keeper leagues jump in on Skenes at a very good daft day cost even though he was doomed to spend months in the minors? Again, yes. Is my SP4 ranking WRONG from my final 2024 article? Well, no, not exactly. It was tough to justify putting Skenes ahead of names like Tarik Skubal, Zack Wheeler, or Chris Sale as we approached the end of last season. A lot of us were waiting for/expecting the Pirates to shut Skenes down at the end of August to preserve his arm. But they just kept trotting him out there. Can Paul Skenes have an SP1 year in 2025?
If there ever was a sophomore pitcher with that much upside, I can’t remember who it was. In other words, yes he can. Will he be on my roster in any leagues? No. Skenes is being drafted as high as 3rd overall in some drafts. Unless this is your first time reading Razzball, you know that means none of us in the writers’ brigade will have him rostered this year. If you were lucky enough to lock him in a long time ago in a keeper or dynasty league, enjoy the ride.
Logan Gilbert 6 (10)
This is a guy that the Player Rater and I were both high on all year. I’ve said it a few times and re-iterated it last week. I don’t know if anyone could name an American league team that employs a better Top 5 than the Mariners’ rotation. It does feel like a group of 1 A, B, C (this time there is one), D, and E out in Seattle. He’ll be in my Top 20 for 2025 for sure.
Grayson Rodriguez 16 (83)
A lot of my rankings for these ace-type players will look silly, but let’s remember that many of them were either injured at the end of the year or did not have great returns after a lengthy absence. In my final write-up, I mentioned that Grayson “might be back” for the playoffs. Spoiler: he was not. It was a lat injury. The good news is that’s not his arm. The bad news? He had the same injury, on the same side, in 2022. Grayson says he’s healthy and ready to go for 2025. I’ll have him on our list, praying he’s right, and slot him much higher than the 83-spot he finished in.
THE BIGGEST DUMPERS
If the biggest jumpers are the players who are boosted the most UP the list, you can surely guess what the biggest dumpers are. Yes, with all apologies to Cal Raleigh, these are the biggest ‘dumpers’ in value or ranking from a previous list.
Here, I’m pointing out which players are ranked much higher on the 2025 Player Rater than they were in my final list from end-of-season. These arms are also ones that I’m avoiding because the price tag is too high – but more on that next week.
Joe Ryan 8 (NR)
Joe Ryan was a preseason darling for 2024. I was fully in on drafting him and his rotation mate, Bailey Ober. In early August, Ryan had an MRI on his right arm which revealed a ‘right teres major strain’. I assumed ‘teres’ was pronounced the same way as the water droplets falling from Joe Ryan’s owners’ eyes after he was placed on the 60-day IL on August 27th. That’s when he dropped off the Top 100 list. Pitching arm injuries are not good for a starting pitcher (follow me for more stellar life advice and sensibilities). Not having surgery to correct pitching arm injuries? Well, that rarely works in the player’s favor. I read a couple of articles from Minnesota’s news sources that are approaching this situation with a lot of optimism. I can’t see myself slotting Joe Ryan into the Top 20 for 2025 with all of the names that need to get slotted in there, (more on that later), and the injury risk surrounding him.
Carlos Rodon 15 (49)
One piece of fact when looking through the Player Rater – Wins boost a starting pitcher’s value. By a lot. This is often one of the reasons why guys like Framber Valdez are ranked atop the Draft Room each year, and why, when you look at the 2025 preseason rankings, Carlos Rodon’s spot might make you a bit queasy. I get it. A few years ago I was a believer when I took Rodon as a $1 flier in an AL-only auction league. The bounceback was so good that it netted him a cushy deal in San Francisco. 16 wins, 195 K’s in 175 IP, and a 3.96 ERA? If you covered up the name, I’d likely be excited to draft that and push the player up into the Top 20 where Rudy has him (for now). But I’m still not convinced that the 2023 Carlos Rodon has been fully exorcised. His numbers from last year look much closer to the 2021/2022 breakout years, but that HR-allowed number is not encouraging (31 in 32 GS).
Jacob deGrom 22 (63)
A lot of this echoes at least some of the Joe Ryan reasoning. If you could give Aladdin’s lamp a rub, and be sure that he doesn’t float out and slap you across the face, I’m sure deGrom owners would wish for a full season of health and 300+ strikeouts from the Rangers starter. I have him in a mixed home league for next-to-nothing, ($0 pick last year in reserve rounds of the auction), so I’ll be hoping for a full season of excellent statistics. Unfortunately, I’m also hoping for some winning lottery numbers and an early retirement. This blurb is brought to you by Disillusionment and Blind Hope.
WHEE!
This section was where I added players to my list who were new additions to the Top 100. Some were old names who had dropped off but returned from injury (or Craptown) and deserved a slot in the rankings. Others were new additions to their team via trade or call-ups throughout the season.
Ok, so maybe it’s not that exciting.
Today, I’m going to add in a few names from the 2025 Player Rater who were not ranked on my 2024 end-of-season list due to injury or pitching in a different league.
Roki Sasaki 18 (NR)
I don’t know what else to say about this guy that hasn’t already been said. I had an extensive discussion about the Dodgers’ prettiest free agent signing with Coullie and Brew last week; you can find the link above. As an aside, “Coolie and Brew” would make for a great iced coffee and donut shop name if our Cards and Categories guys ever decide to go full entrepreneurship mode.
As for the pitcher, we said it in the pod. The risk here for 2025 is Roki’s innings limit. If he can throw 150 innings, he’ll have a chance to provide excellent win totals and a ton of strikeouts. If he can transition seamlessly to a new league and country. Can he avoid injury? How quickly can he build up strength? Will he add some more zip to his fastball? He did outline that as a need when touring MLB teams’ front office this winter.
The easy question to answer is, “Will Roki be an absolute beast in a few years when he is comfortable and stronger?” Barring some sort of Toronto-generated maple syrup jinx catastrophe, he absolutely will. Should he be the unquestioned 1.01 selection in first-year player drafts for 2025 dynasty leagues? No question. Am I comfortable ranking him in the Top 20 for 2025? Probably? He’ll likely be there when we start, but there are a lot of arms in that 20-ish pocket that may give us better or more reliable seasons.
Shane McClanahan 16 (NR)
Yet another ace arm and yet another bold-starred injury risk. I found a news note that the Rays president ‘expects’ McClanahan to throw 150 innings in 2025. Yes, and I expect to not be awakened by my 8-year-old at 6 AM on a Sunday, but here we are. He’ll make the Top 100, (McClanahan, not MarmoJunior), but probably won’t crack the top half until he can prove he’s healthy and survive some spring training tests. The good news is he was throwing in late September and hit 95 MPH on the gun. This spring, I’ll be watching closely.
Shohei Ohtani 46 (NR)
Blasphemy! Wait! Please hear me out before you unleash the venom of a thousand Mamushis (yes, I googled venomous Japanese snakes – this one is the top of the bunch!). We all know how much of a Martian unicorn Shohei is. He’s not just a unicorn. No, that would be too easy. He’s both magical and extra-terrestrial. Dave Roberts already said Shohei will not be pitching in the opening series (in Japan). Keelin wrote him up in her Saturday Ambulance Chasers article and noted that ‘Throw-tani’ could see pitching innings as early as May. I could write a whole article on Ohtani, his ADP, and the odd rules that some leagues still have in place for dealing with such a special player. I’ll likely put him into the Top 100 article next week just to highlight his ADP in different places, but the finalized list may not have him in there until L.A. announces that he’s been cleared to join the rest of the Avengers…er, the Dodgers in the rotation.
OOF!
For my weekly list, this is the group of players who pulled a Charlie Brown and fell flat on their faces. Poor performance, a changed role, or a fairly significant injury were usually the culprits when these guys slid down the slide of sadness and right off the Top 100.
Today, this is a list of guys I had on my final list who did not show up on the 2025 Preseason Player Rater Top 100.
Spencer Arrighetti 103 (46)
Oh, my sweet pasta carbonara. Arrighetti was an SP that I did a bit of a deeper dive for when I was mucking through the 201-300+ ranked Player Rater names in the 2024 preseason. I’ll take the easy way out and leave the screenshot here.
Labeling the SP103 as ‘falling off’ of the Preseason Player Rater is silly. But he did finish the year on my list 60 spots higher than this ranking. Am I biased because I picked him to write up and drafted him in a few leagues? Probably. But Arrighetti’s final metrics didn’t look all that different from a guy like Luis Gil. A 10.61 K/9 in 145 IP is pretty great. A 4.0 BB/9? Well, that isn’t as great. And the .321 BABIP isn’t exactly a spicy meatball in the bowl either. Is he worth his draft day price? That’s for next week!
Justin Verlander 116 (77)
I mentioned JV last week in my San Francisco notes, I said that Mr. Kate Upton is officially 42 years old. Missing time last year with arm soreness or inflammation would be a huge red flag. The good news is Verlander did not have arm trouble in 2024. The bad news is he missed over a month with ‘neck soreness’. A co-worker once told me to, “just wait until you hit 40…then everything starts falling apart.” The only person I wouldn’t bet against in that situation is … well, it’s Julio Franco, but Justin Verlander would be a close second.
Clarke Schmidt 116 (84)
Shota Imanaga and Michael King were a couple of starters who were ranked pretty low on the Preseason Player Rater last year. Then, after a few tweaks, more data was loaded to crisp up the projections. I think this may be the same story with a guy like Clarke Schmidt. Mike had him down as his Yankee “Buy” in our AL East preview. Schmidt was another starter who battled through a lat injury all year. Limited to 85 innings, he put up a respectable 9.81 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, and a sub-.300 BABIP. The ratios were excellent and he allowed just 8 home runs all year. I have a feeling this one bounces back quite nicely. I’ll be happy to root for him, as long as he’s not in a trade offer for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. at the deadline.
That’s it for this week! I hope you enjoyed it. It was tough to stick to the format here and not dive too deeply into the ADPs. I’m saving that for next week when I’ll take our 2025 Preseason Player Rater. Then I’ll make a nice list of some ADPs for you (and me) to analyze.
I’ll see you next Monday! Have a great week!
Follow me @marmosdad on Twitter/X and Bluesky @marmosdad.bsky.social
